One buys stocks for two reasons:
1. To sell it to someone with the "hope" that another will buy at a higher price (demand). A sells it to B, B to C and C to D with the same hope. And who does D sell it to? The chain continues.
2. Or one buys stocks when the "dividend yield" is greater than the interest rate available.
We all know that
1. Bonus shares = converting cash into stock with the net worth remaining the same.
2. Right shares = addition of more money to make the net worth the same.
3. Cash dividends = actual return from investment.
When NTC announced 55% cash dividends, its average market price at that time was around Rs. 780/share. After deducting tax, one would get Rs. 52.25/share. Buying this at Rs. 780/share provides "dividend yield" of 6.69%. But the interest rate provided is 9.25%. So why would anyone shift one's money into stocks?
Answer: Only when the dividend yield is greater than the interest rate available.
Suppose NBL had had announced 30% cash dividends, then the dividend yield considering market price at Rs. 300/share would amount to 9.5%. Its price was destined to increase. But unfortunately it did not.
I believe online trading and other measures that increase "demand" would only increase NEPSE index to few hundred higher, but not enough to drive to a "new greater cycle" as the "big partys" don't enter.
With this line of reasoning and current economic scenario of Nepal published, I would request the group members, and especially Pujibhairav jee who has been exceptionally optimistic, to throw some light on current report published. The atmosphere has been positive from most of the stakeholders since few weeks, but does anyone have any idea on how soon the interest rate will fall?