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Clearing The Confusion of SELL or HOLD - In 2018 NEPSE

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Member
Registered: May 2018
Posts: 18
About Price Fall
1 - SHPC is down because promoters sold heavily
Bullish signal is when promoter buys. If they sell then it means they see future elsewhere.

2 - Some of the big names in stock market has bought large volume of SHPC in 400 range and in 300 range.
Don't get fooled with big names. Everybody is competing here to make money. They are not saint.
Regarding buying, which script has fallen without buying in higher ranges. If I remember correctly then SHPC tender cutoff price was above 500/- last year in Dec 2017.

3 - If promoters continue to sell, its price will further fall
When I was a child there was a game in Bhrikutimandap. It was famous as EK KO DAS (It means you will loose one and gain ten). I loved that game but now it has gone.
Same case with promoter of hydropower. They put 100/- on SHPC around 7-8 years ago and now they sold at average 700/- (considering right shares i.e. 400/- * 2 shares = 800/- while they paid 200/- for 2 shares). Now they are again investing 100/- in MIDDLE TAMOR and LOWER LIKHU, which they will sell to us in 7-8 years at ..........

4 - But many big promoters have significantly sold their sales (50% of their holding)
If supply increases, price will come down. Simple thought, please consider the number of hydro companies which will come online in next 2- 3 years. I think there will be in hundreds in number. Why should I pay premium when they will be available @ around 100/-.

About Dividends
1 - SHPC will be giving only cash/bonus
I think this year will be 15-20% but from next year @ 10%.

2 - Returns of SHPC will be lower than that of BankFixed Deposit for few more years
Correct.

3- But it will have capital appreciation once market surges
Rising tide will life each and every boat.

4 - After loan payments its EPS is 35 at current paidup
Financial charge in this FY is 31 crores. It means after loan pay back (8-10 years), it's Net profit will be 61 crores. It means EPS of 30/-. We mustn't forget that after loan payment period tax holiday will also be finished. It means 20% tax on 61 crores i.e. 48 crores net profit which is EPS of 23/- at current paid up.

Moral of the story: Try to invest in good hydro companies @ 100/- and reap benefit of capital appreciation (by conversion) and dividend (IRR @ 16%). It means LADDU IN BOTH HANDS.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 832
Learn2Invest

About Price Fall
1 - SHPC is down because promoters sold heavily
2 - Some of the big names in stock market has bought large volume of SHPC in 400 range and in 300 range.
3 - If promoters continue to sell, its price will further fall
4 - But many big promoters have significantly sold their sales (50% of their holding)

About Dividends
1 - SHPC will be giving only cash/bonus
2 - Returns of SHPC will be lower than that of BankFixed Deposit for few more years
3- But it will have capital appreciation once market surges
4 - After loan payments its EPS is 35 at current paidup

......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:15 am. »
Member
Registered: Jul 2013
Posts: 287
what about LGIL and SHPC?
_______________
No Risk = No Pain
No Pain = No Gain
Therefore, No Risk = No Gain
Member
Registered: Aug 2018
Posts: 5
expert inshights pujibhairab!
what do you think of PFL JFL SIFC ICFC and more finance companies that have PE lower than 10?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 832
THE CRUX
1 - In Bull we think, price will never fall - and even buy OVERVALUED Shares
PRICE WILL FALL WHEN ITS OVERVALUED - DONT BUY

2 - In BEAR we think, price will never rise - and even sell UNDERVALUED Shares
PRICE WILL RISE WHEN ITS UNDERVALUED - DONT SELL


......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
Dev banks hold, buy, secure dividend and bring down cost price.
Member
Registered: Apr 2018
Posts: 30
I'd like to know the views of our esteemed members of this foroum regarding these 2 scrips,the scripts are as follows
Kebl
Mnbbl
Please share your views sir haru
:) :) :):)
Member
Registered: Apr 2018
Posts: 2
Location: kathmandu
Puji Bhairab Ji What about UMB? :P :P
Member
Registered: Aug 2018
Posts: 8
Ke ho ?? Dui jana ko kura milye jasto xa. Bhitri sahmati bhayo jasto xa.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2148
Puji bhairab ji I really liked your Stock Selection on Micro Fiance. You exactly hit the Bulls eye !!

These 3 stocks which you have mentioned is among my Favorite List of stocks for a Pick !!

1. NUBL Current Market Price of 940/- with medium term TGT of 1356/-
2. GBLBS Current Market Price 570/- with Target of 683 Pre- Right Target !!
3. SWBBL Current Market Price of 1230/- with term Target of 1783/-

Happy Investment !! :D :D
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 832
Commercial Banks & Development
All Grade A banks & Development Banks IF purchase price to EPS have Purchase-Earning Ratio of 10 to 12, THAN hold the shares.


MicroFinance (Only Strong Ones - NUBL, GBLBS, Swalamban etc.)
All Such MFI IF purchase price to EPS have Purchase-Earning Ratio of 20 to 25, THAN hold the shares.
Because profit will start to surge as soon as interest level starts to comes down and that Purchase earning ratio will be 15 to 20 in no time and price will surge significantly.
And because of limited supply, it is the stocks to surge in future.


Non Life Insurance
All Such Non Life Insurance IF purchase price to EPS have Purchase-Earning Ratio of 15 to 20, THAN hold the shares.
Because non life will have more penetration in the coming days and more stronger balancesheet in coming days.
Also has limited supply.

.....Be confident and hold the shares in above scenario......



What Investors Should Know
1 - Nepse will surge in coming days


In Times of DownTrend
1 - Be A Lion & Roar with confidence to your prudent investments
2 - Its a cycle. In Bull prices are overvalued, dont buy the overvalued ones. In Bear prices are undervalued, dont sell the undervalued ones. Adjustments makes the prices reasonable.

.............Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:57 am. »

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