WHY MARKET IS DOWN
1 - Only reason market is down is because of High interest rate
WHY INTEREST IS HIGH - How cash got shortaged?
1 - Ncell took around 70/80 Arab
2 - RNAC Bought Aircrafts
3 - Hydros(Over 2500 MW is under construction). Over 245 Arab INJECTED as loan and 105 Arab injected as Capital. Around 280 Arab goes abroad in turbines, rebars, cements (clinkers comes from abroad).
4 Around 1350 MW is under financial closure stage. 132 Arab of debt and 60 Arab of equity will go there in future. And sustantial portion of this money will go abroad for turbines, rebars, cements etc.
5 - Big Investments in Hotels, Around 100 Arab. All money goes abroad as rebars, cements, decoration items comes from abroad.
6 - Big Investments in Infrastructure Development Banks. Money will remain in Nepal.
7 - Import of Big Telecom Equipment. For instance payment to United Telecom Indian Partners By Nepali Businessman to take over all the stake. And further investment in billions for telecom infrastructures.
8 - Cash Hoarding
UNDERSTAND
1 - Around 450 Arab has gone out of country IN INVESTMENT (NOT CONSUMPTION)
2 - That 450 Arab needs to be recovered
3 - Will be recovered once the investment starts to generate revenue and starts to pay interest & dividends
3 - Remittances of around 650/750 Arab gets spent in consumption significantly with savings only accounting for around 80/90 Arab
RECOVERY PHASE HAS STARTED & SHALL ACCELERATE IN 2018
1 - Around 800000 tourists came and spend around 135 billion in 2017. The onstart of tourist season this year indicates over 900000 tourist arrival and over 151 Billion expenditure in ONLY IN leisure spending. Hotels are booked enormously since March First Week. Understand that all the money that comes in is total saving as expenditure is only for maintenance of already incurred capital expenditures.
2 - Tamakoshi (96% Complete) & Other major hydros will start shortly and after they start to pay loan installments, BANKS will have abundant cash flows.
3 - Increased and proper capital spending to begin from This fiscal Year.
4 - Banks bringing loans from abroad.
5 - 2018 Net savings from remittances
PROBABLE SIGNIFICANT & CONSPICUOUS RECOVERY
1 - Soon
REBALANCE THE PORTFOLIO
1 - Market may fall to make significant correction in case of high p/e ratio scripts
2 - Fundamentally strong scrip may go down due to index fall
3 - Fundamentall strong scrip will recover fast
A- SELL
1 - All The COMMERCIAL & DEV Banks with P/E Ratio of 13 & Above
2 - SELL ALL SMALL & NON ESTABLISHED MFI
B - BUY
1 - All the COMMERCIAL & DEV Banks with P/E Ratio of 12 & Below
2 -BUY ONLY ESTABLISHED MFI - their price will have steep rise in future as interest falls and as supply is thin - underpriced and established mfi are good
BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD
1 - Economy is gaining in value
2 - So will Trade/industrial/Capital Market
.........BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
« Last edit by
पूजीभैरव on Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:50 am. »