Cement industry- I believe there will be more supplier than demand. The growth of supplier will be higher then growth in demand. And I also believe there will be new supplier joining who will keep on increasing supply than increase in demand. So already existing supplier wont be able to expand as we may expect.
Also, in Cement industry, there is importance of brand. And I dont think there is much goodwill of about to issue IPO company in the market.
So that is why, I think existing majority of factories will be able to expand business like BFIs can in Nepal. In my view, NTC wont double in ten year, where as majority of listed company will grow by 10 times in 10 year. For NTC, they dont have to add investment to grow, but for cement factory they have to add investment to grow.
Unless there is big stupid decision made by NTC, their business will be safe in long term. where as cement factory, competitor/new ones could out perform and current ones could go bankrupt. There is threat from locals too due to khate mentality as well as environmental.
So I think, cement's PE ratio should be less than NTC.
Many pessimist like to compare return of investment from share with bank deposit. Congrats, here is another company about to be listed which they could compare with return on deposit. They have few like NTC till now.