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Since we are talking about our trading mantras, I would like to share a small story of mine.

My first-ever investment in secondary market was a whopping Rs 20k loss because I did not have the patience to wait 15 more days. Had I been patient for just 2 weeks, it would have netted me over 30k in profits. Still in my college days and not having a well-paying job, 2 hapta samma nindra lagena.

However, that taught me a very important lesson and I began to study the market more and more. I always used to invest in IPOs and their right shares only, which sure would provide me net profit in the end. However, as I researched more and more, I began to see huge opportunities in not applying (or clinching) the right and bonus shares. Most investors who run after right and bonus fail to keep this in mind that price in NEPSE adjusts after every right or bonus. Timing the market right can save you a lot of money. I eventually began examining whether going for bonus/right would be a good bet or not.

For example, I had 120 kitta NICA since IPO which had become almost 1,400 kitta by clinching all bonus and right. However, this time, I decided to let go the 20% bonus and sold it for Rs 485 per kitta. By adjusting bonus, I sold it for Rs 405. As the market stumbled further, this turned out to be a good decision since its price is now around Rs 335ish. I eventually bought 1,800 kitta at Rs 320-335 just 2-3 weeks back. Did NICA provide cash dividend this time? No? But it did for me :p

I also believe in going for the long term because it will eventually weed out all the risks of short term trading. However, slowly and gradually I have learned a hybrid of going long and short, which seems to minimize the risk of short term and also provide extra cash in the process. However, one does need knowledge of technical tools in this. With few technical tools, we can completely bypass common investor problems like "hera na, yetro din tyei price ma thiyo, maile kinne bittikai ghatyo" and "maile bechne bittikai badhyo"

you are great and active puji bhairab ji on this forum as in jamb forum in earlier days. love to see the posts of BIG BULL also as well

INEFERENCE -...HAVE PATIENCE. THINGS ARE GOING IN RIGHT DIRECTION AFTER 20 LONG YEARS OF INSTABILITY.....

Nice link Simrik ji.

Longer-term approaches are a better strategy. JP Morgan compiled some research showing the importance of this. They tracked the performance of a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 over a 20-year period. It showed a healthy average return of 9.85 percent per year. But they modeled what would happen if the investor withdrew from the market temporarily and missed the 10 biggest days on the stock market for that 20-year period (just 10 days out of 7,304). The result was a reduced return from 9.85 percent to 6.1 percent, which means a decrease of $32,665 in gains. And the more days missed, the lower the gains fell.

Nobel laureate William Sharpe found that "market timers" must be right an incredible 82 percent of the time just to match the returns realized by buy-and-hold investors.

(Can big daddy be accurate 82%? they are not just inaccurate, they dump their share just to bring down the market which opportunity is being cashed by someone else. Just recently, profit booking, somebody/group sold too much at lower price. And someone else are able to get share at extra discounted price. Player need to know, when/which point too much is really too much. In undervalued market, you should think twice before sell at too low).

When booking profit during bull, there should be a lower target below which we should not book profit just because we are in profit.


3 quick tips for portfolio success:
Get sound advice. Even if you've decided to buy and hold, you still need to know which investment opportunities are proven performers with a likelihood of continued strength. The right advisor will also help you to wisely diversify your holdings.

Practice faith, patience and discipline. Markets rise and fall continuously, and when they're down it can be tempting to pull out. Commit to your long-term strategy, and stay the course.

Tune out the hype. If you watch the markets every day and read all the opinions, it will drive you crazy.

Patience pays off
The tactics of timing the market are fraught with danger; history vouches for the fact that "time in the market" is the safer strategy. When it comes to your financial success, it pays to invest your time, not just your money, in your portfolio.

Deepak ji, you probably see market from different angle than many of us do. Surely, you have the benefit of insider information. Most of us are not privy to that kind of insider knowledge. Many of your TA is based on who is gonna sell and buy. You also benefit from having access to the knowledge of portfolios which are very large compared to the daily volume of the exchange. What you and big daddies are doing may even be considered illegal.
So for rest of us plebeians, your tact doesn't work. In normal world, we have to buy low, look at the fundamentals and exercise some patience. Timing the market hardly works, unless you have insider information.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/trying-to-time-the-market-is-a-losing-game.html

Experience teaches us prudence too.

In 5th year ,greed makes everyone blind and he is pushed again in another
5th year tormoil.
Moral : patience is not sufficient prudence is similarly necessary .

Great advise पूजीभैरव ji. This is last chance to invest below 1400.

Next stop is 1600.

NEPSE may never see 2000 again after 2200 is crossed after Online is introduced.


Deepak ji, Bamboo farming and investment look similar. Both are future trading.

My personal experience also says, we need around 5 year patience before we expect good return from investing in future market. I have been here more than 7 year now.

Just like bamboo- I did not see return in early years. Even my IPO was in huge loss. My cost was around 115, but after listing when price stabilized it fell to around 50. I had to wait 2/3 year to see first capital gain.

I started with very little investment. It took me 3/4 year to cross 20 lakh. And after crossing 20 lakh, I finally hit huge growth and today there is no comparison between that 20 lakh and today's valuation (remember, even though today's valuation is still low due to depression)

Why we need 5 year experience in investment to become master of investment-
1: For confidence- My first secondary purchase was MNBBL- about 250@160. I had to gather courage just to invest 40000. I think That time I had around 10lakh investment and still did not have courage to invest 40000.

2: Experience- to have first hand knowledge how stock market works, to feel UPs and downs.To learn as much as basic knowledge. It does not matter how many book you read, with out experience, you wont be able to master investment.

3: Capital gain- Without good capital gain from earlier investment, you wont be able to invest more. You wont get confidence. Most of the first year investor who have invested 10lakh may have about 50 lakh worth of liquid assets and still they invest 10 lakh only. Why? they dont have courage and does not know how stock market works.

Other than Stock(property) i dont have much property. why, I have experience in investment so I have guts to invest all. But we do need other property, and I will add other property when I have enough stock. Others can wait but NEPSE 2000 will not wait for long.

So dont expect, to enter into stock market on 5th year. You need to wait 5 year just like bamboo farming.

Current NEPSE/price is way undervalued and unnatural, thanks to big daddy. This is an opportunity. For experienced like us, we would invest as much as we can, as much as we have, we even search for fund to cash this opportunity, but for the first year investor, even though they have cash, they wont have guts to invest in all. That is why, we need 5 year patience. We need 5 year experience. To grab opportunity in bear market, we need 5 year experience. New ones dont have guts to invest all cash. New ones are not backed by past capital gain to take risk fully.

Never expect to enter into investment in the 5th year. We have to start from year 1.

पूजीभैरवजीको चित्तबुझ्दो विश्लेषण,

लगानीकर्तालाई मार्गदर्शक हुनसक्छ l

Very nice example Puji Bhairab ji.

Traders go for Rs 10-20 profit/shares and investors go for 10-20 times profit/shares.

And i agree investors always win.

Yes as per technical analysis the bamboo was in consodilating zone for 5 years. After it grew 1 feet that signaled for a break out and invested after 5 years and
It grew to 90 feet. Since 5 years he didn't do any activity.But in just 2 months he made hefty return. But long investor exited when it grew 1 feet. Moral of the story Time of entry and exit is very important.

great analysis sir and beautiful example indeed....

Sutra 1 - Market Always Rises In The Long Term


Sutra 2- Big Corrections Are Always Buying Opportunities
Commentary - Buying always doesnt mean putting cash. It also means substituting the stocks (Selling One and Buying Other).


Sutra 3 - Bear Rally is Clearance Sale


Sutra 4 - Value Investing Always Wins


Sutra 5 - For Long term investing/Value Investing TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FAILS. and THOROUGH FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS WINS.
Commentary - Technical Analysis is just for looking at the patterns for traders. They do not bring significant insights about company or investment and hence is futile.


The Story of Chinese Bamboo
1 - First Year. Farmer waters the bamboo seed. No Result
2 - Second Year. Farmer waters the bamboo seed. No Result. Neighbours makes fun of him
3 - Third Year. Farmer waters the bamboo seed. No Result. His own family makes fun of him
4 - Fourth Year. Farmer waters the bamboo seed. No Result. His own suspicion makes fun of him
5 - Fifth Year. Farmer waters the bamboo seed. No Result. He almost loses his hope.
6 - 5th Year 1 month - The bamboo sprouts
7 - 5th year 2nd and 3rd month - Bamboo grows to 90 feet.

Morale -
During the 5 years the bamboo was developing the rapid and strongest shoot system under the ground. And during the 2 month it grew radically.

As Nepal makes a pace itself in development, the resources goes like watering the seed of development. And development is developing the shoot system. Soon the result of development will be seen as country grows rapidly and the resources invested starts to show the results.....As the country grows everything grows with it.....

INEFERENCE -...HAVE PATIENCE. THINGS ARE GOING IN RIGHT DIRECTION AFTER 20 LONG YEARS OF INSTABILITY.....


.....Research, Analyze, Invest.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela......