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#1 Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:51 am
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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#2 Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:38 am
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Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 145
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this makes good sense @rising sir ji....thank u for sharing experiences and views....everybody here, at whatever level they are, there is more and more to learn....we should all think rationally and be cautious...yesterday when the market became green after quite long i too made my little investment but only on those that i know/ or i think i know are good...like MNBBL and NLIC...market right now is too volatile...its difficult to predict its direction...lets all be cautious and think logically...
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#3 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:45 pm
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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In mid or long term, investor invests based on cost, return, availability, other investors, future etc and all of them are fundamentals.
And when mass makes decision or take action, it is reflected on technical analysis. That is why, technical analysis should not try to predict the future. May be that is why most of the technical analyst tells us about resistance levels, support levels, not the whole future. |
#4 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:41 pm
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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When NEPSE was close to 1900, many companies were undervalued. My mind was still bullish at time. After tihar only realized market has crashed, at time, I think, NEPSE was still above 1800 or around.
Then I thought, market wont crash below 1700, because of fundamentals. Then after it fell below, 1700, then thought it wont fall below 1500. There was a fool who was spreading nonsense about 1200. After, market fall below 1400, then I realized, their whole plan was really to bring down to 1200. I did buy some at 1200. That crash, taught me something. Not everyone think like me. Many investor dont realize that, crash does not mean zero. It means, just a crash up to some point. Since many investor does not what point is the lowest or highest, I started to make short term decision based on mass physic rather that fundamentals. And technical analysis is the reflection of that physic. THERE IS NO WAY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GUIDES INVESTORS, ITS INVESTORS THAT GUIDES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. BUT TO IDENTIFY MASS PSYCHE (ESPECIALLY FOR SHORT TERM) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS HELPFUL. AND FUNDAMENTAL IS THE SHEEP DOG OF INVESTOR. |
#5 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:31 pm
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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Year or two ago, I saw good in SADBL, I bought it @320 (around). With in a week its priced crashed to 260 (around). I made the decision based on fundamental. But probably a couple of month later SADBL reached 500 or 600. I saw it with fundamental analysis, but since others did not see it, I suffered in short term. May be other followed technical analysis.
In US market, I saw Alibaba as a great buy. I liked it when it was 60 (probably) and bought it above 80 (i think). I lost around 10 dollar in a few days. and after probably in a few month, it started to grow and reached around 190 (around). I bought it based on fundamental analysis. Unlike in Nepse, US may follow technical analysis professionally. Technical analysis saw good in Alibaba late, and fundamental may have saw it early. This could mean, its fundamental analysis that drive the future market, and technical analysis drive short term market. |
#6 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:25 pm
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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Bishnu Bas ji,
I have very little knowledge about technical analysis and I learned little bit more from you. When you said, you dont care about EPS, PE ratio, at first, I was shocked. Later realized, technical analysis is all about action/investment activity of aggregate investors, so technical analysis does not need to know about fundamentals. Investors make decision based on fundamentals, and those actions of over all investor is reflected on technical analysis, which means, it does not need to follow fundamentals, investors do all the homework regarding fundamentals. So when fundamentals tell investors its buy time, technical analysis show that there is positivity in majority and opposite if it is negative. Which means, based on fundamental, investors decide and it is reflected on technical analysis. But all fundamentals are not available to all investors, so majority (in currency amount) guides technical part. Which makes technical analysis important in short run. Its like, a plane and the pilot. It pilot who flies the plane not the other way round, but RADAR follows plane not the pilot. So the boss of the pilot have prior knowledge of the mind (fight path) of the pilot but still follows the path the plane is going on. And when the radar tells, the flight is going on the wrong direction, the boss knows, the path has changed. It does not happen regularly. The rather tells you were the plane is going by the direction it is moving. But when the radar sees plane turns and goes straight, the radar will tell the plane has changed path and going on another direction. Radar wont know until the path has been changed. But the boss of the pilot may know if the pilot is following its destination. Same with the technical analysis. Technical analysis is the Radar not the original fight path. Technical analysis is as good as plane travels in straight line. And when plane changes direction, then technical analysis finds out the new path. Which is, only fundamental analysis can tell the future. Technical analysis is good for short term and wont be able to tell sudden change. So it wont be wise for technical analysis to predict 2 year in future. Like in NEPSE, it started to crash after NRB made a move. Today, it increased after 11% interest. Technical analysis did not changed the NEPSE direction. Technical analysis is like historian who can tell what happened. And also could tell what will happen unless something big change occurs. |
#7 Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:42 pm
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Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 323
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Basyaal ji says market will rise after 2 weeks because Paush months quarterly effect will finished.
In technical chart 900 level never decrease nepse before falling 900, there is strong resist level 1175-1200 also. In nepal market is in basis more fundamental then technical. in mature market there is more technical. If we implement online market main boom will start, after that nepali share market also run after technical and theory. see the history of nepali market and worlds share market. « Last edit by Ramesh N on Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:44 pm. » |
#8 Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:40 pm
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Registered: Jul 2014
Posts: 110
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This thread is teaching a lot to others.
My request to you friends is please be polite and come out with facts and logic. Thank you friends- Ramesh N, Rising Sun, bishnu bas, thescarecrow and all others. Some six months ago, I did also read a proposal of a group from India-educated people having a majority of shares seeking to operate in Nepal as a counter stock exchange. |
#9 Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:56 pm
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Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 163
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Before commenting on Basyal ji's prediction ,I request all to go over Eliot Wave theory first which is world famous theory for stock market. It would be beautiful if any discussion goes on with solid basics and theories.
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#10 Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:30 pm
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Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 145
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lets not fight friends...let fight logic with logics...lets be logical...how does a market that has been going down for the last few weeks suddenly becomes positive and raises high!!....how come investors suddenly in a days time understood that they should buy shares!!...this market is either following the graph that bishnu sir has predicted earlier or there is omething big being cooked up!!...for the time being my inclination is that there is a graph that is controlling the market!!....otherwise without change in political scenario, without any progress from nepse, sebon side how all of a sudden the market rises by more than 42 points!!??
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#11 Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:00 pm
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Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
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I can only laugh at loud on your logics. Good luck.
_______________ Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA |
#12 Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:40 pm
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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I have visited all the links you have shared previously.
I am no technical expert, but the lower point you talk about is one of the resistance levels and you have chosen the one suitable for your investor (big indian investor or RAW). In Nepal, even a group of investors combined capital may not be more than a few billion so its not worth and not needed to lengthen bear for another 2 more year. But to invest in 100s of billions, you need 2 year of bear. 10 crore in a day. It would be a perfect world- need 2/3 year to invest 100s of billion then after 2 year market head towards 6000/10000. In nepal, it is not possible to invest 100s of billions in bull market. If they try, market suppose to reach 2500 will reach 5000. |
#13 Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:41 pm
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Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
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Have you seen My videos and ppt. If yes then only comment. Without knowing my analysis you don't have right to comment. First see and then discuss.
_______________ Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA |
#14 Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:25 am
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Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 323
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बिष्णु सर,
तपाइ नेपालकाे शेयर लगानीकर्ता हाे ? तपाइले अन्तर्वार्ता दिदा म धेरैजसो भारतीय बजारमा केन्दि्रत छु । र, नेपालका सबै कम्पनीलाई सूक्ष्म रुपमा हेरेको छैन । भन्नु भएकाे छ । के कारण नेपालकाे बजारकाे Technical Analysis गर्न थाल्नु भयाे । अहिलेकाे Off Season समयमा Nepse 900 मा अाउँछ भनेर अन्तर्वार्ता के अाधारमा दिनु भयाे ? तपाइले Market 6000 पुग्छ भनेर हामी जिल्ल पर्दैनाै । The Rising Sun जीले दुइ वर्ष अघि नै Nepse 10000 in 2083 भन्नु भएकाे छ। यदि तपाइले भारतमा बजार १०००० मा अाउँछ भनेर अन्तर्वार्ता दिन सक्नुहुन्छ ? नेपालकाे स्टक मार्केट अपरिपक्व रहेकाे र manipulator हरुले चलाएकाे भएर यस्ताे हल्ला गर्न पाउनु भएकाे छ । China मा जस्ताे Market Crash गराउन खाेज्नेलाइ जेल हाल्ने कानून र सस्था नेपालमा नभएर यसरी वर्षै पिच्छे manipulate भै रहेकाे छ । बजारकाे High र Low Point कसैले भन्न सक्दैन । त्यसैले Manipulate गर्न छाेड्नुहाेस । Nepal काे कानून Strong भयाे भने, साना लगानीकर्ता एकजुट भए भने manipulator र तीनका भराैटे कसैलाइ छाड्ने छैनन् । « Last edit by Ramesh N on Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:37 am. » |
#15 Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:42 am
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Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
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Dear Rising Sun and Ramesh N,
Market moves in certain cycle and there are a lot of factors working together for market up cycle and down cycle. You and me just can not manipulate the market by saying something. Market participants especially smart investors are smart enough to understand the market dynamics. It's just cycle of ups and downs sequence nothing else. If you people are really interested to hear me then you can watch my Bazar Guru Interview and my Short Term Update by clicking the link below. Just do not go with the mere title of the web portal. I have suggest a lot of measures which a Regulatory authority, NEPSE,NRB and Market participant can take for the healthy growth of the market. Click the link below for BAZAR Guru Interview https://youtu.be/4cK5g5omB80 Click below link for NEPSE Short Term Update https://youtu.be/lIdtDtHUGG4 Moreover you can read my ppt in which i have explained the overall cycle as well as current and future economic fundamentals about NEPSE. Click link below for NEPSE ppt https://drive.google.com/file/d/19UVqnFKzYLwuLrqVVOO6dfFW5ZiaqmZ4/view?usp=sharing _______________ Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA |
#16 Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:52 am
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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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talking about controlling market, yes, powerful country does control market, including foreign.
i saw, how cia had influence in chinese and russian market and how they crashed those market. cia must already have some control over indian market too. when india betrays, cia, they will pay the price. problem is, india is no russia who has resources or china who has wealth. india is toast. In US, criminals crashed market a long ago and they accumulated a lot of share. today they are super rich. so dont try to fool idiots that there is no one who wants to control NEPSE, only idiot nepalese, idiot politician dont see the value of NEPSE. |
#17 Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:48 am
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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Bishnu ji, If you are really a professional related to investment, you are suppose to know, investors are suppose to look into every aspect. We need to prepare for every impossible and always expect the unexpected.
But, when never expected, happens- even those who prepare for unexpected makes mistake. Is there any market in the world, where market is not way over valued, it suffered more than a year into negativity- both mind and market?? When NEPSE was 1900, 10-15 companies were 10/20% over valued, rest were way undervalued. And instead of focusing on individual companies, criminals who sold during 1700+ crated panic. NRB made a bad move and cause of all that we still are suffering. Let's say, you are honest. Let me tell you something, majority of those who has India connection have anti Nepal interest. Since you have india connection and instead of staying back in huge market like india, why are in in nepal, where criminals run, where intelligent (if you are one) can do nothing. Only manipulator can survive in nepal, if you are honest intelligent, you wont be able to survive. so why are you here? every criminal in nepal wants to crash nepse, and you have joined too. last year, no body/some garbage, was used to bring down the market. this time, its you, a technician. and you gave interview to onlinekhabar. that media sells nepal to the highest bidder. and you joined them. during blockade, they took ad from indian embassy and supported india. |
#18 Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:18 am
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Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 323
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Bishnu ji,
I dont no more about technical analysis. But in this off season last year also manipulator send one person who says Nepse will come 1200 . We believe that you also with them. In Indian market all invest by technical analysis. market is mature. In Nepal market is in growing phase and many space to grow. In near future online will be implemented. we all know that after online market growth minimum 10 times. So manipulator are active now. |
#19 Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:24 am
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Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
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LOL !!!!! What a joke writing of Mr. Rising Sun. Now i believe that people like you are just speculate. You do not use your mind. You just don't know how to apply your mind.
Why india wants to control nepalese share market? Why india need to send to control the share market? If oli would have been prime minister then he would have controlled market.!!!!! HAHA!!! Even the world's most powerful central banker could not control the stock market but you are saying oli will be able to control it. Just apply your mind and read the full interview. There are some logics behind every word. If intention is just to create panic among investors then why there is talk about 6000 till 2024? Just apply your mind and be wise (apply some logic). Stock market can not be controlled by anyone as i just can not control your mind. _______________ Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA |
#20 Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:35 pm
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Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
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"शेयर बजारबारे इन्भेष्टर्स फोरम र बैंकर्स एसोसिएसनका पदाधिकारीहरु बीच छलफल, के भयो कुराकानी ?"
सर्वसाधारणको लगानी डुबाउने भ्रमपूर्ण तथा तथ्यहीन टिका टिप्पणी, प्रकाशन, प्रसारण र प्रवाह गम्भीर अपराध भएकोले त्यस्तो पक्षलाई कडा कार्बाही गर्न पनि सम्वन्धित निकायहरुलाई फोरमले आग्रह गरेको छ । details :- http://bizpati.com/punjibazar/13849 |
#21 Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:06 pm
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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I heard something big is being planned (positive one) may be insider trader are buying.
Cause majority of small, big are holding or selling few, not buying. In the world, puppet master try to control banking and media. but in Nepal, commoners are throwing bank share. |
#22 Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:08 pm
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Registered: Sep 2013
Posts: 259
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900सम्म नेप्से तल झर्ला जस्तो मलाई त लाग्दैन ।त्यहा सम्म अाउनु पहिलानै12 सयमानै बाएर प्रशस्त अाऊने छन् र फरकिने छ बजार ।
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#23 Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:59 pm
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Member
Registered: Jul 2017
Posts: 12
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LOL The Rising Sun,
It is not fun to see such a fool in stock forum. |
#24 Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:10 pm
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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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but if Oli comes into power, NEPSE 900 is possible only if India blockades again. but that is not possible, cause, last time they were able to blockade cause no country or UN gave a damn.
This time, China will take issue to international arena and China may stop water flow to India. Last time China ignored, cause nepal disrespected them. During blockade during democratic struggle, china sent oil but our so called great leaders- koirala, singh, adhakari, bhatterai did not went to receive that oil. may be last time, china wanted nepal to remember india's blockade for a long time, that is why they did not help us like they easily could have done. and they have succeed up to some limit. still 3 million voted for NC. I read in media, if we count canceled vote, uml may have got 4 million vote. those nepalese who think they are educated, well informed and good people- think Obama is a good guy. those educated fools dont even know, india blockaded nepal with the blessing of that !#$!$. AUKAT NA BHAYAK KO PEOPLE LIKE TO TALK/SHARE BIG WORDS LIKE - there is a crime in the world not cause of criminals but cause good people are silent. And same low aukat walal complains when some one does it. people who talk big usually criticize those who does big. BE CAREFUL OF ENEMIES- MAJORITY OF POLITICIAN/BUREAUCRAT/MEDIA/CRIMINAL BUSINESSMAN/CIVIL SOCIETY ETC. |
#25 Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:02 pm
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7912
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I can guarantee, if sherbahadur stay in power for 6 more month, market will crash to 900, it wont need 2 year.
He says, market would fall to 900 in 2 year and then reach 10000 in next 10 year. Why would market fall if it has to reach 10000. Are all individuals who have share and who can legally invest and have money, dumb that they would sell share at way undervalued share whose market is suppose to increase 7/8 times in 10 year? If you analyze, India could be behind it. Bureaucrats and their criminal gangs may not have budget more than a few billion, I dont think, they need to play such a long game to implement their agenda. But India needs two year. To control NEPSE, We all know, in nepal, where all those who know NEPSE know market is way undervalued, so when bull starts, there wont be much seller. so to control 25-50% of market, they need 2/3 year of bear market so that there will be enough seller. All investor I know are either holding and some are selling, so who the hell is buying. even big investor are selling. who is buying in bear market? Look, where he came from. Why would he come to nepal from such a huge market? has agenda??? All problem weather liquidity, nepse, development can easily be solved. but Bureaucrats are in-acting. why? could india ordered not to do anything. Govt is sitting on 300 billion, 15% of total deposit BFIs have, i dont think any country where such a huge money is sitting outside the system. that would destroy economy of that country. in nepal, bureaucrat are doing nothing with that 300 billion, why may be india ordered them not to do anything. many knows, many high ranking are in payroll of india. remember blockade, it was bureaucrat, who did not want to bring oil from china, they did not want to expand road to china. look what has govts backed by india been doing for last one and half year. Nothing. liquidity problem, nepse problem going on for the whole time and they ignored. while both problem can easily be solved. NEPAL NEEDS VIOLENT REVOLUTION just like that happened in italy. Fundamentally it is not possible for nepse to come down to 900 but if bureaucrats want it is very much possible. Remember, NEpse is crashing cause of banking sub index too. look carefully, there is liquidity crisis but that does not mean banks are in trouble. their business has been growing. so why nepse crashing as be it the end of banks.???? |
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