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Now is i think the right time to buy the stocks.... Liquidity crisis is about to be over... Further FPO and IPO money is about to be refunded.... and people are predicting the market will go lower.

Buy companies with good fundamental right now!!!

This thread is completed and i will be posting potential buy next week....

Lau hai sathi ho aaba jaha samma mero experience cha aajhai aauta very big sale with market down huncha and then buying will come and market will recover to its formal place 1800 and up.

Small investors : keep cash for now when the maket will be stable then buy and build a portfolio... crore kamaune aaba dau aaucha but be patient ... let the market run its course with bear and do not buy now.

I believe market down in 2 days is exactly the fear kicking in the market, soon margin call will be coming and the volume will keep on rising but i do not believe that i will buy in the dips as i do not want to catch a falling knife.
The cycle of a bear market is nearly complete just the fast fall(which is the last fall) is about to come.

I thought 1200 will be the turning point of the market just have to see where the market goes in the fast fall.

Liquidity crises has to be averted.... NRB needs to give a ultimate signal for share market to take a u turn...

For small investors hoping to buy in.. and thinking that this must be the lowest .... do not worry you will get plenty of buying opportunity before the market turns ,,,, first let the market be stable ....

Lannister ji although i do not fully agree with your point and hope it won't be true. but there is a harsh reality that no one is interested in the market. only vetran investors and those investors who earn their earning through nepse are present.

broker office is empty. karobar rakam is nothing right now. there is too much negative sentiment in market. prvu report didnt help the market. 400% right bata investor bewakub bhayenan.

If bazar goes to 1200 then it will rise. but if it stays in 1400 line then it will take much longer time for a bounce back.

this is exactly what happened last time then nepse was around 450 tira hola when negativity and interest rates were at its peak.


j hos happy investment.

As pointed out in the initial argument
I think the market is stable for the moment.... and this is the calm before the actual storm hits us... i think margin call are about to be kicked in.... for whatever reason the banks are holding the margin call or the customers still have funds to block the margin call....
Liquidity crisis jiy ka tiu.... banks are still hiking interest rates.... I do believe NEPSE is going to 1200.... no body is interested in the market right now... either wait and watch or buying very small kittas....

Tywin Lannister, I agree with you,
but,
First, they manipulated and crashed the market and then the fundamentals you just stated came into play and again market crashed more.

So question is, should the market keep on crashing, does not matter how much price should be down??? I believe the market is down far more than any negative fundamentals could drag down, except civil war like in Syria.

My view, but reality is different. today is the another proof.

Two more good news coming- 1: Bankers have talked to NRB and will talk to finance minister regarding liquidity crisis.
2: current on going parliament's standoff looks like will soon be concluded.

Just remember, in a country like NEpal, whose neighbor is India, will never have peace. So we have to build our country side by side of turmoil.


Yes Bazarguru ji, I too have been wanting to see stability in NEPse.

Sathi haru, technical ta malai khasai jankari xaina. Principles haru ta sabai tha xa. Tara mero experience bata eti chai bhanxu li technical ma mathi jane ho bhane mathi matra dekhauxa, tala ho vane tala matra dekhauxa. es ma dependence bhayera kaam nagarau hola.

Nepse is based on investor psychology and confidence.

Don't look at nepse. Just analyze via karobar rakam. 2-3 days ko mini bull ho as i said before esto ta bhai rakxa untill market reaches minimum point. Stability is key rather than growth right now.

Happy investment.

The Rising Sun ji,
Thank you for putting your view

Aaja ko market down trend ma gako ho ra?
Fundamental ta taha cha,,,, liquidity crisis,, margin call blah blah le maket alik down trend ma jancha jasto cha but i want to see more technical people commenting here.... what is the technical view of the market?

My personal view regarding fundamentals of investing:

1: over valued or undervalued- this factor may have 50/100 effect.

2: future prospect- future growth, politics, policies etc- 30/100 effect.

3: availability of fund/cost of fund- 10/100 effect
:if no fund is available when what can i say, same with interest, if interest is 100% then .... if interest rate grows by 2/3% but profit growth is 20/30 percent then not much effect.
I dont think at this time fund and interest rate is that bad.
If everyone once to sell their land, there is not enough, so the y may just abandon their land than sell their land for too low, same with share.
If interest rate for bank deposit is 30%, no need to invest in share just put in bank, but the problem is, the bank, that offers 30% interest is likely to go bankrupt, so better invest in share- its complicated. ha ha

4: season- 5/100
during season or off season- price is suppose to be up or down around 5% or far less but in nepal, some companies price is down by almost half.

5: rest- 5/100


So, if price is way under valued, just buy, other fundamental is not suppose to effect unless, govt is about to nationalize the company or something like that. In the world-
-there are two mentality that effects our decision- culture and intellectual power. Since we dont have share culture many dont buy shares even educated ones, our culture is if you have saving- buy land or gold.. only those who are intelligent enough, buy shares some buy by coping others success.

we may have noticed, those who have been investing in share are usually have far better financial position than those who dont.

Just my view- who dont follow culture.

REBEL

Does anyone has any clue why the market is booming rather than going down,,, is this a dead cat bounce or bounce back from the low?

Liquidity problem is not solved but it is more tight due to issuance of FPO and Right... what is the situation of banks,... No rate change in NRB site...

Lannister ji,

@data entry -
yes you are right..maile pani aafai data entry gari rakheko chhu...merolagani ra share sansar ko dherai numbers wrong huncha...plus bonus pachi eps ra pe pani adjust gardainan ani company le j pe ra eps diyo tehi use garchan...

@current market situation-
aja ko market ta khai k bhanne...pure manipulations ho jasto lagyo... volume pani kam chha... experienced mitra haru lai badi idea hola... tapai le bhane anusar bank haru le margin call garna lage bhane ta situation jhan khattam hunchaa...bank haru aafno sabai shares bechi sake badeko belama...aile ta sadharan lagani karta ko jati ma bechda pani k matlab.... loan liyera jagga ra share karobar garnu chai danger nai hune rahecha...badeko belama ta thik chha tara ghateko belama ta khattam nai parne rahecha...great lessons learnt

@insider trading and deep chalkhel-
kati samma chalkhel huncha bhane aile top gain garne company haru praye jasto ramro financial status nai chhaina tara pani badi rako chha...ra supply kam bhayera pani hola sayad...

eg. nbil ko floorsheet heryo bhane thaha huncha tyo kinne bechne 45 42 broker le matra ho...ek din ma 10 10 kitta garera price badaudai bechirako chha....kinna khojda share chhaina tara khali 10 10 kitta match garera bechchan...
yo floorsheet 2016/11/27 201611274114792 45 45 19,000 214.00 4,066,000.00
ekai din 19000 kitta kinyo...ani din dinai 10 10 kitta match garera bhau badayo...

malai ta yo market updown bhanda pani insider trading garne haru ko dar lagcha... tehi insider trading garne haru le hgi 1300-1400 huda yeti dherai kine, price badaye ra pachi dump gare...

what i would like to see kunai pani board ra management ko member le share kinda ra bechda atleast 1 month agadi notice dinu parne system...bahira tira yestai huncha... online trading garna ta gari khane bato jancha bhanne haru yesto system laulan bhannu ta aas garnu matra ho...

Udayaman ji
Financial datas haru merolagani ani aru website haru le rakhi rako hunch, example ko lagi http://merolagani.com/NewsDetail.aspx?newsID=29104

But it is better to calculate such ratios and do analysis yourself... i have found that except banks many other companies mess up the calculation of EPS and PE ratio haru dheri high dekhincha which are actually low.... and better company are not represented correctly... and since the news portal haru aafai calculate gardainan tini haru le pani wrong info de rako hunchan....
Malai thakki 2-3 din jati lagcha quarterly report haru compile garna..... but since 3 months ma ekchoti aaune ho 3 din khasai kehi lagdaina..... aani aaru bhanda better huna ko lagi ta aalik hard work pani ta garnai paro ni.... ki kaso?? Ho suru suru ma time lagcha but pachi pachi aalik sajilo hudai jancha....

Ani chart ko kura ma tapaiko kuro sahi ho aagadi dekhi nai adjust huda fall which is actually due to bonus lai overlook garera analysis garna sakinthiyo...

Ani aaja ko bounce back ma k bichar cha Udayaman ji ra Bazarguru ji ko? jamma 5.62 le badheko cha... liquidity crisis jiu ka theu...... broker sanga kura gareko thiye.. not much buying pressure.... tesmathi yesta news aaudai chan http://merolagani.com/NewsDetail.aspx?newsID=29282

Margin call aaune 5 jana jati ta aafaile bheti sake jo sanga paisa chaina and lot of share dhito ma rakeheka chan...
Khasai pessimistic huna man chaina but aaile ko bazar kasai gari pani badcha jasto lagdaina... k cha tappai haru ko view?

When NEPSE is wild we should stay stable

Thanks Lannister ji,
also very rightly said bazarguru ji

i am also in wait and watch mode....ramro company haru thorai thorai add gardai basyo..

on another note,
kunai yesto website chhaina jasle sabai company ko financial data rakehko hos ra herna milos... pay nai garna pare pani thik chha baru...

harek choti financial data aafali herdai entry garda dherai nai time jane...data analysis bhanda pani data entry le nai time jado rahecha suru suru ma ta...

ani arko problem,
maile nabujheko kura company ko chart haru ma kina price adjusted hudaina bahira tira jasto...eg ebl 3200 bata jharera 1800 bhayo price adjust huda...chart heryo bhane ekai din kati jharecha bhanne huncha tara tyo real price adjusted hudo ho bhane ta last day ko price 3200 haina ki lagbhag 18000+-20 jati huncha ni

Great post lannister ji,

When nepse was 1800+ signal ta aayeko thiyo that a fall was imminent; tara aafai ali arrogant bhaiyo. But still unlike last time where i had badnam companies, now i have relatively good ones which at least will give me yearly returns so i'm happy with this.

There is wide spread optimism that nepse will reach around 800. I don't know. But i know if this is the case than buying shares like nabil, everest, ntc, chcl, nmb, sanima, sbl, scb, sicl, nlic and many other A grade companies at rock bottom prices will be fun.

There is panic even in the mutual funds right now. Nabil equity fund I has also purchased in a falling market and Global ko ta kurai chodu they entered when the market was 1700+. But long term investment will really help these mutual funds also provide good returns.

CIT haru pani aauxan so i'm not worried about the market. Worrying factor will start only if the balance sheets of these companies start to decline in a bad way.

Nothing last for ever no rise and no fall.

Happy investment.

Udayaman ji,

Liquidity problem is solved bhanne news lai track garna either NRB ko webpage https://www.nrb.org.np/cmfmrates.php?search=02&hdSubmit=Go ma jane,,,, you can see commercial bank rate which if reduced, liquidity crisis is being solved.... however tapai hami le layman ko hisab ma pani rate track garne tarika cha....
If you remember correctly banks haru le eksath interest rate badhayeko thiye.... date ta taha bhayena but may be 2-3 months aagadi ko kura ho.... Nepse chai 1700 tira thiyo..... NEPSE ma phaile dekhi nai ghatne jasto chat kat dekhedai thiyo but k le ho taha pauna sakiyena..... jaba yo news newspaper ma aayo taba taha bhayo ki banks haru le ta holding bechi sake..... NEPSE indicator ko top ma ta bechna payena but aaba market down huncha jasto lagera 1700 ma becheyo and basiyo

Moving back to interest rate.... interest rate bado bhanera newspaper ma nai aaucha aani teti khera NEPSE badi sakeko huncha ... but ma ta worry gardina.... even if maile news banks bhanda dhilo paye pani at least sure ta huncha ki news chai pakka ho bhanera .... teti khera nepse 1800 mai bhaye pani buy garne ho.....

But dheri le yesta news haru track gardainan ra matlab pani rakhdainan so malai kehi chinta chaina ... ma bhanda pani dhila ya khaile taha na paune haru dheri chan....
Mutual fund ko ta tapaile bhaneko kura thik ho ra banks ko holding ko bare ma taha pauna chai aafno broker sanga kura garne(buying pressure kati cha bhanera).... broker lai tesai na ramro bhanne manche dheri chan but broker le ramro suggestion dincha(if you know what to ask)

Market east west south jana sakcha ra bottom ma catch garchu bhanne aasa pani leko chaina.... just yesta company track gardai chu jasko price ghate pani rati chai ramro sanga sutna sakiyeos......

When NEPSE is wild we should stay stable

Lannister ji,

tapai ko approach pani ramro lagyo...trying to go to the root cause and getting solution from there...i have few questions, may be you can help me...

how will you know liquidity problem is solved...results for this will take 3-4 weeks...

also how do you track banks and mutual funds holdings...mutual fund releases holding only once at end of month and banks in annual report...but market might go east west in one month and it might be already too late to enter market...

yes i am also following these indicators...tara right entry thyakka thaha paunjel samma ta price feri up bhai halcha ni

aile sabai ko situation tehi nai ho... naya kinna cash ko problem... aja sasto bhanera kinyo, bholi jhan ghatcha...jhanai tension...

i made my first mistake by buying one commercial bank in last bull without doing any company analysis...i was just following the crowd with X% right mentality...this company is not bad but it was very expensive and overvalued during that time which i realise now...

after this i started to read all about company, get performance indicators and compare if the company is overvalued or undervalued and not to waste money before getting full picture...

so far my portfolio looks like this
ComBanks 41.37%
DevBanks 9.82%
MicroFinance 48.81%

i still havent done any buying in hydro or insurance ...because i havent found time yet to analyse hydro or insurance business...and i wont get into these industries till i have full idea how the business works...
commercial banks, dev banks and microfinance are similar in nature, so i know the business model, till now i am heavily invested in these sectors...

i also dont believe much in bonus shares...auta roti lai 2 bhag laye pani 4 bhag laye pani kura tehi ho...right share ta jhan i dont take it positive anymore...aile ko situation ma paidup badhauna pareko need le ho natra ta company le aafaile kamayera ultai hami lai dividend dinu ko satta jhanai hami sanga paisa magera business badaunu bhaneko ta ulto kura po bhayo...manche haru nabujhera right right bhandai ufrinchan..ma first time ufriye jasto...jaba bujhiyo taba thaha bhayo yo right ta sab hawa rahecha...

i follow this mantra : you never know what is the lowest or highest nepse point..right thing is keep on buying (few scripts everyday) good companies no matter how much it decreases tomorrow...may be i am wrong and need some more time to get good strategy but first loss taught me very valuable lesson ie not to follow crowd ...do your own analysis and stay put in it...

Thank you Bazarguru ji for your valuable insights.
Mero ta parkha ra hera ko strategy ho ahaile lai.... ma dheri banks haru ko working haru janda chu and i know their holding of shares and they dominate the market along with mutual funds,,, aru halka fulka big players bhanuda haru ko ta ma kura pani sundina.

Afu ta technical manche pareyo so companies haru ko quarterly reports haru aaune bitikai computer ma data entry garincha ani tesbata meaning full information haru nikalna khojincha... earning ko growth... potential ... PE ratio and Net worth ratio.... enai indicators haru herne..... bonus ta aafule khaile ni bujiyena.... bonus dinu bhaneko ta aauta khalti ko paisa aarko khalti ma rakhera ma sanga dheri paisa bhayo bhanera falaknu jastai ho jasto lagcha.....

Khasai insider trading garna janiyeko chaina .... information aaune bato pani chaina... ra halla ko bhar ma paridaina pani...

Yesta share haru hold garera baschu ki jasko bhau ghato bhane pani nindra chai na bhagos.... company ko aasli value taha bhaye pachi ta market ghatos ki bados matlab na hune raicha.... and ghate jhan opportunity dekhido rahecha....

Margin lending ma biswas gardina... and loan chain... can hold my share indefinitely....

AAile lai bazar ko volume ra NRB ko consolidated banks rate track gardai chu... jaba liquidity crisis ko kehi samadhan hune jasto dekhchu and Banks ra Mutual funds ko holding badhauna thalchan taba market ma entry back garna man cha.........
For now market bata tadha nai hune bichar cha.... tara market chai daily heridai chu... searching for entry...

Lannister ji,

I feel for people's pain, but hajur we must move on. Swallow the hard pill of loss and move on. Navaye esta investors market bata dherai lamo samaya samma out hunxa. This will be disastrous for nepse.

Honestly bhaneko; in the last bear too showed my frustration in the jumboforum of nepalsharemarket; but khi vayena. Its best to take counter strategies at the earliest.

Active ta bhai halinxa ni sir, office ma dherai kaam hudaina, aafno first passion nepse mei xa. Investors ko moral lai up banauna sano prayas ho. But lannister ji, one has to bite the bullet and stay strong and move forward if one wants to earn from nepse.

Bears are painful. I have share that we all discuss. Banks(55%), Insurance (10%), Hydro(8%), Micro finance ( 20%) and mutual funds (7%).

Yo time ma loss kos ko hunna ra lannister ji, jos ko pani xa. But I am adding. Sano tino jati sakxu add gardeixu.
I don't fear loss. I just don't have a lot of cash now to buy.

Nepse kati pugxa tyo malai tha xaina. Jatti ghatxa utti uthauxu. Sake samma uthauxu. Thorai thorai gari kinxu.

Happy investment.

Lannister ji i also kindly request you to please provide your strategies. We can learn from each other also. In jumboform we had nirmal baba, sharebuda, rohan sharma, and many friends. They all left later. Big loss for us small investors.

Another thing... as the current scenario is mostly due to liquidity crises(in my view) once the market is down by 1200 or so people may think this is a buying opportunity however unless liquidity problem is solved i don't think the market is going anywhere but down... what do you think?

Thank you Bazarguru ji,
I am not a pessimist and don't make fun of other people loss... and as you said balai bho for others share , i keep the same attitude... as no matter how much people curse the NEPSE for being down they are only concerned about their own loss.

By they way,... you seem to be most active member in the forum ,,, i want to ask you,,, At what point do you think the market is going to stop? and what kind of scrips are you holding??

Thank you for putting your thoughts lannister ji.

You are 100% right lannister ji. Afno share ko situation tyesto xa bhane please bechi halnu hola.

Loans are worse in capital market please sell your shares if you are not confident in the share market. Pay your loans and enter into the market after it is settled. Tapai ko analysis correct vayexa bhane u will Pay your loans and still get the equal number of shares when market goes down.

But aru ko chinta nalinu hola. You are here for yourself ni. Just as I am here for myself. Aru dube, ghar bheghar bhaye loan bata; hami lai baal matlab. Aafno lagani jogaune sabai ko responsibility ho. No joge hami lai baal. They took bad decisions. Everyone has lost money. One must be responsible.

Investors are smart. Tension line haru le ki bechi sakeka hunxan ki bechne kram ma xan.

I highly recommend you to please be active in this forum; aafno bichar rakhnu hola. Cause it is due to views like this and clashes in opinion that we learn more in the capital market.

Happy investment.

Known Facts: Market is down from 1800 something to 1400 something
Known Facts: Big investors(also small but knowledgeable) players has sold their holdings 2-3 months ago
Known Facts: Small investors who are suffering loss are holding tight to their shares in fear



Undisputed Fact: Margin loan shares are about to get a margin call
Undisputed Fact: Big investors(also small but knowledgeable) players are not interested in the market right now
Undisputed Fact: Interest on loan is on rise, banks have stopped adding new loans.(Liquidity crisis)

Where does it leaves small investor? what should they do?
Here are my 2 cents
As per NRB directives once a margin call is made the borrower must repay within 35 days or else the bank is bound to sell the stock within 7 days from the end of 35 day's notice.... if margin call was made at November 20-25 margin call is about to kick in and banks are about to sell their borrowers share within this week or next so we will witness a fall in market at tremendous rate.
Once this happens the panic will set in at once and all the earlier buyers will want to sell their holdings without any buyer which will further reduce the value of shares.

Investors who are holding high value shares with a optimistic attitude ,,,, SELL YOUR SHARES AT ANY PRICE YOU CAN GET!!!!,,, because you are standing in a railroad track and the train is coming towards you and it is going to hit you... so get off the track ... dont be lazy....

Aasti samma jasle market 1200 pugcha bhanda hasthe aaile 1200 samma chai pugla but tyo bhanda chai ghatdaina bhanna thaleka chan.....

Use your brain and do the analysis yourself ... am i wrong?