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Possible swap ratio for CBL, CCBL, Janta.

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
That is just an example Sharesikaru ji.

Civil bank's share holder get instant benefit and EBl will get benefit in mid and long term "good deposit, suppose income of cbl is 35 crore now, then after acquisition- they will fire CEO, second man, department head etc and increase profit by more than 10 crore, and also make current staff more efficient and make more money from then by sending them to new branch.

Win win for both... that is why smaller company sell themselves to bigger company and bigger company acquire small company for long term benefit.
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 217
The Rising Sun ji if EBL acquire Civil Bank what benefit share holder will get?
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
Thirdeye ji, looks like Civil wants to be civil.

I hope they want to remain civil cause they will be doing well and are about to publish good BS.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
पुँजी बृद्धि योजना बनाउन सिइओ र सञ्चालक समिति छलफलमा जुटे, सानाले दिए मर्जर विकल्प - See more at: http://www.bizmandu.com/content/-12810.html#.Vcl-ZHGqqko

- Suppose, if EBL acquire civil today, they may give 25%, but if EBL gives 50% bonus and then acquire CBL then also no problem, cause then, they will give 35%... so NO worry..... and great think is in one and a half year, profit of cbl could increase by 50-100% and get even great deal, but profit of ebl wont increase by 50%, due to the increase in economic activity, profit could increase from 8% to 14% that's all.

So going for low cap company is the best strategy.
Member
Registered: Jul 2013
Posts: 986
ilfc ra civil ko merge ko kura kahile samma tunginchha?
Member
Registered: Jan 2015
Posts: 78
Nice
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
"2 yr wont be 5, 8 billion wont be 5"

- This is the best decision for low cap banks. Now return from Low cap will be 2-4 times from merger or acquisition.

Now banks like EBL, SCB can only raise max 5 billion capital with bonus. Will indian company send extra capital for right share?
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
‘दुई बर्ष पनि पाँच हुँदैन, आठ अर्ब पनि पाँच हुँदैन’

- This is the best decision for low cap banks. Now return from Low cap will be 2-4 times from merger or acquisition.

Now banks like EBL, SCB can only raise max 5 billion capital with bonus. Will indian company send extra capital for right share?
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
‘दुई बर्ष पनि पाँच हुँदैन, आठ अर्ब पनि पाँच हुँदैन’
http://www.bizmandu.com/content/-12806.html#.VcjIU3Gqqko

- This is the best decision for low cap banks. Now return from Low cap will be 2-4 times from merger or acquisition.

Now banks like EBL, SCB can only raise max 5 billion capital with bonus. Will indian company send extra capital for right share?
Member
Registered: Jan 2014
Posts: 53
Rising Sunji, thank you very much for ur immediate response & detail information on my questions.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
about SCB, it does not matter. I really dont see any exceptional job by banks like ebl, scb. Worst is, they give less interest to depositors. and depositors are losing 10s of crores.

There are 100s of nepalese who are willing to buy them.

चार्टर्ड बैंकले के भन्यो ?http://www.bizmandu.com/content/-12806.html#.VciwC3Gqqko
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
Universe Ji, In my view, at this time, all the experienced as well as new investors are going for big companies. If we look at Nepse, it has already increased more than 10% but if we look at the price of individual companies, only 5-10 companies' price has increase others have not increase at all.


So comparing to NEPse and big cap, most of the companies' price is way under valued. So going for those companies is good decision. but since our market dont follow principle, i cant guarantee.

I still believe, almost all will be acquiring or go for merger and low and mid cap price have not increased so we are likely to make more money in low and mid cap especially they are likely to get better deal during acquisition or merger.

IN banks, I put all my money in CBL hoping for far better balance sheet. (now cbl is the most cheapest bank, gap between cbl and ccbl is now more than 50rs. EBL has already increased more than 30% where as new banks' price have not even increased).

But, I would like to suggest you to buy all small companies not just one or two. Most of them will be acquired by big or mid cap for sure, if not all... but we cant tell which ones by which.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Mon Aug 10, 2015 7:25 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jan 2014
Posts: 53
Rising Sunji, in ur opinion at present which small company share is better to buy & do u have any idea why SCB is increasing? There is rumor that SCB may leave from Nepal. Would you plz share ur views.
Thank You.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
During merger smaller company always gets better deal, especially for share holders.

And acquisition is even great for general share holder in terms of share value..

Cause bigger company will benefit in long as well as short time due to the reduction in operating cost of small companies since their ceo, department head, second man will no longer be needed or they can be sent to new branch and become more productive.

That is why bigger company always offers them better deal than current position.

SO MERGER, ACQUISITION IS ALWAYS GREAT FOR SHARE HOLDERS OF SMALL COMPANY.

But in NEPSE only handful of companies' price have increased, rest is in negative position.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
Thirdeye ji,

Banks like scb, ebl can raise capital on its own using right and bonus.... but the problem is EPS after raising capital on its own.

If they raise capital on its won in 2/3 year their EPS will be around 20 cause their growth is 8-10% (only MUKTINATH CAN MAINTAIN GREAT EPS ON ITS OWN). Then they are likely to loose top 5 position.

And once they loose top five position cause I am sure companies like HBl will acquire one or two billion and maintain around 30% eps. They will loose business.

Today, people are crazy with ebl and scb share cause of their name and eps. similar is the case with depositors.

If they loose top 5 position, that craze will be gone and with in 1 or 2 year they will be another mid cap banks and they are finish. and with their status quo loving management and promoters they will never recover.

So for their promoters, they have two options, raise capital on its own and loose top 5 position or acquire and loose their power.

Companies that are likely to have better eps than ebl and scb after 8 billion capital, if they try to raise capital on its own- nabil, hbl, nib, sbi, and merged mid cap banks.

nabil can raise capital on its own, or may acquire 1-2 billion.
nib can raise on its own.
hbl is likely to acquire 1-3 billion.
sbl must merge or acquire.
2/3 mid cap could merge with one another or with dev banks.

What would happen to the image of EBL and SCB if their EPS is 20???????? :shock:
Member
Registered: Jul 2013
Posts: 986
rising sun ji, my question is why scb/ebl/nabil wud need to merger or acquire other bank. all of them have good reserve and profit to raise capital on their own. if they like to keep good reserve, then they may issue some right shares.

plz explain if you see other reasons for merger or acquisiion.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7913
With:

SCB/Everest,Nabil: 24-29%, they are more likely to acquire so then 28-35%.

HBL/SBI/NIB: 45-50%, they are also more likely to acquire so then 49-55%.

prime/sbl/sanima/citizen/nmb: 75-90%



Any views.

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