Since last couple of months the rise and fall of NEPSE was attributed mainly to political developments around. Now most of us are some how convinced that the political parties are not giving any Constitution soon. Though we may expect the constitution within 2/4 months in earliest or never from this 2nd Constitution Assembly too.
So, to political savvy investors, what happens to NEPSE mainly depends on - by when the expect a stable political situation
In my personal opinion if they expect the constitution within a couple of months, then NEPSE should hover around current index with natural ups and down. But however if they are not optimistic of having constitution by six months, these investors in secondary market may start to move on with their normal business of stock tradings. In such a case, due to favorable fundamentals other than political conditions, NEPSE may pave its way toward the bull region and eventually cross the previous highs of 1083 or even 1175 before the constitution. However at around that points there might be huge profit booking activities and subsequent big corrections of about 10-15%.
However if we get the constitution "with consensus of major parties", within six month period, the NEPSE should break all earlier benchmarks and hover around far beyond previous highs- say 1500 with in a month after constitution. The movements afterwards may mainly rests on the economic agendas that the country will take.
These are my personal view. Please share your views too.
Regards
AnYex