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Very True Analysis

This is the fourth bull, though this bull is yet to peak. To understand this concept better, we must understand the market dynamics. In Nepal, the stock market has a six-year cycle. The current cycle started after the market crashed on Bhadra 15, 2065. It reached the lowest point in the next three years. Hence, it reached the bottom in 2068. The market gradually started to rise (the first wave) from 305 level and reached 555 level by the end of 2068. It further rose to 631 level by 2069 (the second wave). The third wave will come in 2071 (current year) and the bull will be over.

This cycle also applies to all the bulls and bears in the past. The market had peaked in 2051 at 160 level as the market was small at that time. There were only around 25 listed companies at that time. Nepal Bank Limited was one of them. Standard Chartered Bank was known as Greenlays Bank in those days. The market again peaked at 545 level in 2057 – in six years’ time. The market should have again peaked in 2063, but it was extended. We call it a coupled bull. Then the market again crashed in 2065, bottomed in 2068, and began to rise. The bull will end this year (2071) to complete the six-year cycle.

Hence, Nepal’s stock market has a six-year cycle. India, which is more developed then our market, has a cycle of 5.5 years, and the United States, which is more advanced, has a five-year cycle.