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I was wondering why there was a plane crash during budget.

Now, it is getting cleared, it has hid every micro sector ... tuch tuch.

Last year, on the day of Monitory policy, something bad happened, probably bus accident, and I did say, that monitory policy will harm and the governor is alchina.

And that monitory policy destroyed the economy, share market and banking. Some People think this is superstition, really even after proof, same happened when KP oli became PM, I think.



Today is budget day and a plane has been out of contact. Hope plane is safe, which is not possible or somebody stop the budget.

Our village idiot finance minister may increase tax, probably in import, and destroy out economy and exporting capacity and manufacturing capacity just to make some criminal industry happy cause they will get to increase their profit margin.








In Nepal, when weather is bad, it is banned to fly plane, cause ever time plane flies during bad weather, it go boom. Then some idiot in social media talks about how that rule is foolish.

I believe in freedom of speech. So such idiot should be stopped using freedom of speech. Murkha, alchina ko awaj dheri tholo huncha.

Just few week ago, those alchina came in support for governor when he was fired.

Those alchina came in support of NRB's monitory policy and now here we are. ISUPPORTNRB MC. Most of them are investor RC.

After KP oli lost the election, this doggo of kp and yuraj k- governor is going hyperactive for general election.

He will do his best to destroy the economy and help kp oli.



Like I have been saying, if someone destroys something, change the person or that person will just try to prove himself right during remaining tenure. This governor trying to say he is correct in his high interest sh!t and anti share market policy and blocking credit.




Maoist (and nc) is finished, they cant even take care of servant- governor. this governor is treating them as trash and they dont even see it.

नेपालीलाई पनि बाहिर लगानी गर्न खुला गर्नुपर्ने गभर्नरको टिप्पणी, 'खराब पैसा ल्याउनु हुन्न'






loot money exit lai tero bau le rokcha.





Desh bechna hune, teska ama kina bechna na hu ne. Send picture of your women governor.


NC, uml, maoist, bureaucracy, judiciary, media ...... are national security threat. VOTE VOTE



Talk about letting criminal invest in foreign country is letting them take black money out. BLACK MONEY AND THEIR WHOLE WEALTH SHOULD BE NATIONALIZED AND THEY SHOULD BE JAILED FOR LIFE.



There is so much loot, probably, 1/3-2/3 that they are unable to hide it in Nepal, that is why they need policy 'to let invest outside' to send money outside. Those who cant even compete business in Nepal legally, who is it possible for them to compete outside Nepal?

ब्याजदर बढ्दैमा निक्षेप बढ्दैन तर अनावश्यक खपत घटाउन ब्याजदर बढाउनु पर्छ: गभर्नर अधिकारी



Its been around one and a half year since interest rate has reached peak. Khoi import ghate ko MC.

You tried to decrease import by destroying the economy. You are able to destroy the economy but unable to decrease import.

I told you to directly intervene import. And finally you did after wasting almost a year and finally import decreasing.

Your logic did now work, but, Like always, mine working. Cause I am "SECOND TO GOD".



Second half of your latest career has been nothing but total disaster.


Have you thought about what would happen when interest rate is too high to the economy???? You are pakhe and pakeh is not suppose to run a country.




Few years back, we had foreign currency problem too. That time we did not have noise like today. Why, today media made noise cause of Srilanka.

NRB/governor totally failed neapli economy with their policy which did not help in foreign currency savings.


Then just around srilanka problem was spread by fake news in Nepal and governor was fired by the govt, this governor went on media making noise that if govt dont stop import, Nepal's economy will be destroyed. He kept on barking in Nepali media that Nepal's economy is about to collapse.

His barking, srilanka news and his firing are the reasons, people, fake expert supported this mf governor when he was fired. Crowd thought- governor was trying to save the economy, only governor understood the economy, governor was trying to save the economy. His barking in the right time and his firing helped him from getting public support. But dumb crowd did not know, governor is dumb and he is one of the individuals who is behind the crisis. He was too late to recognize the crisis and identifying the short term solution. Only I knew in Nepal. And if they had implemented my advice when I proposed it, foreign currency problem would have been solved months back.













Now let me talk about interest rate a little bit more.

Do you understand business. In business borrower pay interest from profit. At this time borrower are paying interest rate from their pocket or from saving or black money. Means, those whose who are paying interest rate is not the money that contributed to the economy but for those who are getting paid interest rate are getting paid a lot, they are making a lot of profit. Which means, they are the ones driving consumption. Country is suffering, business is suffering but depositors are enjoying which is the one of the reasons behind high import even when economy is suffering.

Which means, consumption is driven by interest paid on deposit and that interest is paid with loss. Loss is driving our economy, import. Good job governor.


NRB's policy is the reason, import is not decreasing even when economy is in sh!t. Other reasons are- black money, loot from budget, criminal making money. Bad Monitory, fiscal policy only harm official economy. This governor is able to destroy official economy while criminal economy is hardly hit. Look how much criminal were able to spend on the election, even when interest rate is high, when there is no credit available. NRB policy was only able to destroy economy and share market.






Alchina governor


oli ko kukur, yuraj k ko kukur ('kukur ko buddi hundaina, buddi hune kukur hundaina- SECOND TO GOD)

Sati ko sarap.

'आर्थिक सूचक र स्वरूपमा हैन, कुशासन र नीतिगत कच्चापनमा हामी श्रीलंकाजस्तै छौं'

राष्ट्रिय योजना आयोगका पूर्वउपाध्यक्ष स्वर्णिम वाग्लेले हालै राष्ट्रसंघीय विकास कार्यक्रम (यूएनडीपी) को मुख्यालय न्युयोर्कस्थित एसिया-प्रशान्त क्षेत्रको प्रमुख आर्थिक सल्लाहकारका रुपमा श्रीलंका भ्रमण गरे



Did UNDP hired him or he got the job from Nepal's quota just like yuraj k used to?

Is not it sad comedy, this guy, when he was boss of national planning commission, we too had liquidity crisis, dollar crisis just like today (last time few years ago) ....... he did nothing, he had no solution, he had no advice for NRB, govt ......... now he is the expert of current srilankan crisis, nepal's current economic crisis.

Does UNDP or srilanka know that under his leadership, nepal faced similar similar crisis and he had no solution?


And Nepali media is making him hero, advisor, focusing on him as an adviser of current crisis.




Like I have been saying, media in nepal either promote their guy or cia/raw agent. His whole family is professional jhole of dalal congress. And media promotes his and his brother/s.







This is why" Wealth of owners/promoters of BFIs, insurance, media should be investigated, its source, where investment came from, their expenses, their domestic and international link, their activities- to protect national security as well as economy.

I am very proud of present investors of Nepal.

In the past, when govt/NRB used to fk them/us with bad policy, they used to quietly take a big one behind, now they are fighting back by leaving Nepal with a big chunk of money.

Its like, if you dont respect us, we will take our business where we are welcome.

Just a few kharab cash exit is destroying 50 kharab (official) economy.

Village idiot finance minister just talked dirty, all action/policy came from NRB.

Cause of NRB's policy towards share market, liquidity kharabs has taken flight to friendly market.

Cause of NRB policy, there is liquidity crisis as share market crisis, and pakhe, cia/raw agent in supreme court ask there is no clear reason of wrong doing, incompetency of governor. Not just governor, d governors should be hung too. They are far worse. (that rc d governor misra, when i see his face, I just want to punch him, interview tera malik jasto behavar garcha)



Those who gave job to governor, those parties who promoted d governors, those parties who cant fire governor, d governors will pay in the election.


Around two year back, I did tried to find out crypto, cause of high fee, I did not follow on. Today, I feel like, hope I did follow on.


Today's investors have send clear message to NRB, governors, politicians, bureaucracy ... if you try to fk us, we will fk you and the entire economy. And people will fk you in the election.


INVESTORS TOGETHER STRONG.

ओली प्रवृत्तिको हचुवाको भरमा योजना बनाउने परिपाटी दोहोरिएमा नेपाल पनि श्रीलंकाकै बाटोमा : डा.स्वर्णिम वाग्ले




One of many many examples in Nepal. You dont know what to do when you are in power and after losing position, becomes expert. This guy is one of many who failed sher bahadur's previous govt. And cause of this guy, we have pakhe in yojana ayog.

Cause ....
Sher's wife made this hifi us/uk return (looks like pakhe too) as yojana ayog's boss. He totally wasted his time. And there was noise in social media.. person running yojana ayog(economy of Nepal) should know village not bookish one. Then they made some village idiot yojana ayog boss this time who turned out to be another failure.

Dumb people just cant understand simple fact- person in power should be the one with ability, knowledge .... not bookish or some pakhe who has seen village.





'श्रीलंकाले हामीलाई 'के के नगर्ने' भन्ने राम्रोसँग सिकाएको छ': डा.स्वर्णिम वाग्ले



- He meant do nothing. Status quo. And they talk about why Nepal is so backward. Replace alchinas with brilliant ones with vision.







आइपीओ पर्दैन बैंक खाताबाट आस्वा शुल्क कटेको कटेकै !


Alchin patrakar. tero baule free ma kam garcha. When alchin patrakar writes these nonsense, them bureaucrat will implement it then Nepal stuck in status quo and society wastes 5 year waiting for next election for change.








अर्थतन्त्र सुधारको काम राष्ट्र बैंक एक्लैले गर्न सक्दैन: गभर्नर अधिकारीको बिचार




- NRB's policy has multiplying effect in the economy. You destroyed the economy single handedly. Commit suicide.
I started this thread predicting your policy destroying the economy.

Fire this MF. I want to know what was govt okil presented as reason and proof infront of the judges.






अर्थतन्त्रमा संरचनागत समस्या छ: पूर्वअर्थमन्त्री खतिवडा

- When he was finance minister, there was liquidity crisis as well as BOP crisis. He did nothing to solve it. He has no idea. He did not even know, where bank liquidity comes from.

I predicted those problem, I advised the solution- but they did not listen, then I predicted exactly how the problem will be solved- which was economy will suffer and import will fall and liquidity problem will be solved.

That time, we had liquidity problem cause by over investment in sectors like cement which increased import. Instead of controlling investment in those industries, govt/NRB kept on pushing for more investment in those sector by squeezing other sectors and harmed other economy.

I predicted, economic problem will end investment in those sector and solve liquidity problem. Happened exactly.




This time, case is different. And we have different variables. We had economic crisis caused by covid, economy is fragile today even before liquidity crisis. Then price of commodity increased by double or more in international market which increased import and caused liquidity crisis.

To solve liquidity crisis they went after share market then remittance decreased as well as money left Nepal to invest in crypto, foreign share market. And liquidity crisis became worse.

All due to govt and NRB. Due to govt and NRB policy, now whole economy is suffering. Small and medium business must be suffering hard. Large ones may be surviving with black money.

NRB destroyed liquidity crisis and banking crisis and share market and the economy.

Never ending crash.


Last time cause of incompetency (economy crash, share market crash, banking crisis, dalali to India) of NC and maoist just in 3 year, KP Oli became super popular.

History repeating as it is (economy crash, share market crash, banking crisis, dalali to US) but just in one year and few months.......... but this time, let's see who will win the lottery.


Only principle of sher bahadur- capture govt ...... loot, ignore problem, buy vote, buy cadres.


Only things he has been hyper active are in- implement masters' order, setting in govt positions, setting in govt contract, capture election.

He always win while country and party always loses.



*After his gynandra's incompetent kanda, his party won distant second, while he won.

*Then blockade and economy/share market/banking crisis ... his party became distant second and while he won.

*Now the third time ......... result with in 2 week. (looking at social media they are loosing a lot of vote, may become 1st party but vote will be lost ............... I have hardly seen any neutral who are talking about voting for congress and communists)

बढ्दो बजारमा लगानीकर्तासँगै ब्रोकर कम्पनी समेत बेस्सरी फसे, ब्रोकर नै बजारमा फसेपछि कारोबार रकम एक अर्बमा



This is what happens when you give bribe to politician to appoint doggo in SEBON, NEPSE, Governor.

Look, governor did play along with his masters in setting but he also destroyed the economy.



Bhariya cant be Bhariyas' leader. Most he will do is demand free stuff which would ultimately lead to inflation and nothing more.

Sri Lanka halted trading for rest of the day amid volatile trading after opening for the first time in two weeks


- Did anyone in Nepal say, srilanka's BOP is in sh!t, why the hell their govt trying to protect their share market. dont they know, share market is dalal pujibad. Man say like that in Nepal, good think is it helps to see the real face of individuals. In Nepal those who hate share market are- dalal, alchin, loser, mukha ......

- did anyone from central bank of srilanka say- we dont care if share market collapse, its non of our concern. NRB in Nepal said like that about NEPSE.




NRB ko malik lai coming election ma aukat dekhine cha.

" Wealth of owners/promoters of BFIs, insurance, media should be investigated, its source, where investment came from, their expenses, their domestic and international link, their activities- to protect national security as well as economy.



Cause those organization is owned by dumb criminals with black money, they hire dumb staff who write dumb stuff, which is dangerous cause it will be read by dumb politicians and crowd and it becomes narrative, which destroy Nepal's economy- "नयाँ निक्षेपको लागि स्थानीय चुनाव र विकास खर्च नै ताक्दै बैंकहरु"







ani kaha bata aucha deposit, pakhe. Since, other main source of deposit is loan.

















इस्टोनियाका सरकारी र निजी क्षेत्रलाई नेपालमा लगानीका लागि आग्रह

Cause of media ran by dumb, this has become the fashion. asking every foreigner to invest in Nepal by dumb politicians.

Estonia is part of future Russia. Tell Estonia to build better relationship with Mother Russia and stopping being vassal of anglozoo.

तत्काललाई राष्ट्र बैंकको स्वायत्तता जोगायो सर्वोच्चले, 'गभर्नरको कारवाही स्थगित'



des sideya sidyos, tara pakhe ko jagir janu hundiana. 15% interest rate, credit stalled for almost a year now, share market crashing, real economy destroyed ..........

No wonder, 80% bureaucrats are dalal, and they are no scared, in a country whose Judiciary is the most corrupt.

Police is the second most corrupt.

Media is the most corrupt if we consider all sector.


The judge what made the decision, I used to see him a lot in TV, he looks like ngo, ingo guy. ......... may be cia judge gave verdict in favor of cia governor. Or uml to uml.

OMG so complicated. all are cia raw agent, weather they are from govt or opposition or private sector.






Sati ko sarap..


dont forget to vote.

My vote is going to be FU vote for mandale.

I am the only one in Nepal, who regularly analyze Nepal's economy, analyze important economic event.... but now, every one in Nepal has become fking economic expert. What they know about- economy, what NRB been doing for last 1.5 year- that they are here to support ex governor.

Some idiot say, govt should not have kicked out governor when economy is in sh!t. M00rons, this is when you fire the person in power, this is when person in power gets fired all over the world, this is when revolution happens all over the world.

When you are born in a human body, you should have a bigger brain than that of a doggo.








Finance minister, when resign, after getting humiliated in the election????





Remember, the title of this thread """What started chain reaction, Monitory policy-2078 did. Dipendra bahadur chettery is gonna die in a year or two."""" ???



(Its amazing, that MF Dipendra bahadur chettery also the reason behind the crisis and still he has not committed suicide and worse, media taking his interview regarding solving economy problems created by his advice. )







I even started this thread, knowing that no one in Nepal has memory except for myself.

I started this thread, demanding sacking of governor, d governors, fm, financial secretary.

I did warn, everything will turn into ashes.


I became Economist, cause I could not find a single one in Nepal, who warns govt. I became Economist due to the second or third Monitory policy previous governor Chirinjivi Nepal. Today, fake news owned by criminals are taking his interview regarding economy, banking ..... the person who was behind the collapse of the economy, share market, banking during the last time.


sati ko sarap.



This is why" Wealth of owners/promoters of BFIs, insurance, media should be investigated, its source, where investment came from, their expenses, their domestic and international link, their activities- to protect national security as well as economy.








SECOND TO GOD

Economy is vast.

Balance of payment, foreign currency reserve is one of the major elements of the economy, and there are many many more.

6-9 months back, I suggested to directly intervene import. NRB was trying to control it indirectly, which I opposed.

NRB tried to decrease import by destroying kitchen of public, by destroying income of public, by destroying business of public.

How do you feel, if your kitchen is closed just cause dollar reserve is dwindling? which was not needed???


Just to decrease import, NRB tried to destroy all elements of the economy and still it did not work and finally they have stopped import with directly intervention. During this time, Nepal may have lost many many kharabs, many family must have suffered.


(In Nepal, only I understand economics, and instead of listening to me, they listened to every dumb out there, worst, they took advice from those who destroyed the economy in the past)




In Nepal, main source of income are- remittance, smuggling/tax evasion/fraud/black money, looting of budget and non of them are affected by tax and interest rate and liquidity. NRB policy only destroyed official economy. Not criminal economy.









Now to reverse damaged economy caused by NRB policy ............ (And decrease tax, including import tax too)

Govt/NRB need to loosen monitory policy, reverse all the policy brought to tighten the economy, except for import. Undo share related monitory policy too, or you will pay in election and if you want to increase remittance and if you dont want people to suffer, if you dont want economy to suffer.

To fix reserve problem, control import in short term and for long term, increase export, production.


Ban import of private vehicles for 6 month. Undo ban on electric bike after 2 month, undo ban on electric car and bike in 4 month.
Unnecessary food/furniture/garment and many goods, should be import banned for 3/4 month.



I had been saying 6/9 month ago, We only had dollar reserve problem, then NRB monitory policy destroyed the whole economy.












pakhe le des chalaune haina- SECOND TO GOD

Case against ex governor:

1: राजनैतिक दलको सदस्य वा पदाधिकारी भएमा : Was governor had no idea about economics and banking or he just acted as political hit man? Problem with Nepal's economy during about last one year is extra import of around 3 arab, and trying to control the problem, he hit 40 kharab economy (abour 100 kharab in real economy) and he tried to destroy the largest voter segment (after gender) which is share market.

Every govt try to protect their share market while enemy govt try to destroy share market of enemy share market. In Nepal governor, nrb tried to destroy share market.

So are those sign of ignorance about economy, banking or just a political hit?






2: बहुलाएको व्यक्ति: NRB always took order from elected government. But this mad governor challenged elected government.

He kept double downing his bad policy every month.





3: राष्ट्र बैंक ऐन बमोजिम बैंकको उद्देश्य हासिल गर्नको निमित्त बैंकले गर्नु पर्ने कार्यहरु कार्यान्वयन गर्न, गराउन कार्य क्षमताको अभाव भएमा : NRB's job is to maintain liquidity position- but the governor, nrb destroyed liquidity with Monitory policy.

Nrb's job is to maintain right interest rate- but the governor, nrb pushed for out of control interest rate, would have gone worst if elected govt had not intervened, but every month they tried it but every time elected govt prevented, and still interest rate has reached close to 15%.

NRB's job is to maintain inflation- But the governor did the opposite by letting interest rate go out of control, by decreasing supply of good and services, by decreasing supply of liquidity ...

In the world central bank's one of main job is to protect share market- but governor, nrb tried to destroy it.

NRB policy should help create job- but the governor tried to destroy current job and prevent any future job creation by destroying liquidity, interest rate and loan policy.

Problem in Nepali economy about a year back was high import of about 3 kharab. I did advised to control import directly. All they had to do was ban private cars, unhealthy food, electronics for a few month. But instead went to destroy income of Nepali, went to close the kitchen of Nepalese hoping, it would decrease import. to control 3 kharab, they destroyed 40kharab (unofficial 100kharab) economy. What kind of policy is that???

Because of their attack on share market, remittance could have decreased by 25-100 arab.

Long term solution of balance of payment is increase export, increase production. Which can be done by decreasing cost of living, cost of doing business by decreasing tax etc, including import. But NRB policy increased cost of living, doing business by a lot.

The list is unlimited, only question is how many you can think of or remember or you know.









4: मुलुकको बंकिंग. तथा वित्तीय व्यवस्थामा हानि नोक्सानी पुग्ने कार्य गरेको देखिएमा : The governor destroyed banking industry by destroying liquidity and interest rate with monitory policy. By controlling loan policy.

Cause of the result, bfis' NPL would come under tremendous pressure, which would collapse the whole country.

NRB destroyed profit of bfis. Govt revenue, income of society depends upon bfis good profit, which NRB destroyed.





5: बैंकको काम कारबाहीमा बेइमानी वा बदनियत गरेको देखिएमा: Governor did micro management in BFIs to destroy the system to help kp oli.













The list would only increase depending upon how much you understand economy, banking and have insider info. How much you can remember. How much time you have to think.
















I did warn, longer this crisis go, louder will be the voice of idiots. Now, idiots in media, social media have increase their voice, also thanks to srilanka.

गभर्नर, डेपुटी गभर्नर तथा सञ्चालकलाई हटाउने कसले हो , सरकार कि अर्थमन्त्री ?

कस्तो अवस्थामा पदमुक्त गर्न सकिन्छ ?

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंक ऐनमा विभिन्न ६ वटा अवस्थामा गभर्नर पदमुक्त हुन सक्ने उल्लेख छ

१. राष्ट्र बैंक ऐनको दफा २१ बमोजिम सञ्चालक हुन अयोग्य भएमा गभर्नर पदमुक्त हुन सक्छन्

निम्न अवस्थामा राष्ट्र बैंकको संचालक हुन अयोग्य भएको मानिने छ

-राजनैतिक दलको सदस्य वा पदाधिकारी भएमा,

-वाणिज्य बैंक वा वित्तीय संस्थास"गको कुनै कारोबारमा कालो सूचीमा परेको व्यक्ति, वा

-वाणिज्य बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाको बहालवाला पदाधिकारी, वा

-वाणिज्य बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थामा पाच प्रतिशत वा सो भन्दा बढी शेयर वा मतदानको अधिकार भएको व्यक्ति वा

-ऋण तिर्न नसकी साहूको दामासाहीमा परेको व्यक्ति, वा

-बहुलाएको व्यक्ति, वा

-नैतिक पतन देखिने फौजदारी अभियोगमा अदालतबाट सजाय पाएको व्यक्ति

२. राष्ट्र बैंक ऐन बमोजिम बैंकको उद्देश्य हासिल गर्नको निमित्त बैंकले गर्नु पर्ने कार्यहरु कार्यान्वयन गर्न, गराउन कार्य क्षमताको अभाव भएमा

३. मुलुकको बंकिंग. तथा वित्तीय व्यवस्थामा हानि नोक्सानी पुग्ने कार्य गरेको देखिएमा

४. बैंकको काम कारबाहीमा बेइमानी वा बदनियत गरेको देखिएमा

५. खराब आचरणको कारणबाट कुनै पेशा वा व्यवसाय गर्नबाट अयोग्य ठहयाई प्रमाणपत्र खोसिएको वा व्यवसाय गर्न रोक लगाइएकोमा

६. मनासिब माफिकको कारण बिना लगातार तीनपटक भन्दा बढी समितिको बैठकमा अनुपस्थित भएमा

यी ६ वटा अवस्था बाहेक अन्य कारणबाट गभर्नर डेपुटी गभर्नर तथा सञ्चालकलाई हटाउन नसकिने ब्यबस्था राष्ट्र बैंक ऐनले गरेको छ











So there are 5 legal reasons, ex governor can be fired.

Governor out!

Noice

I believe, 25-100 billion remittance could have been decreased cause of attack on share market. Nepalese outside may have gone for alternative share market as well as crypto. In Nepal, last two economic crisis started, after they attacked share market. I dont think, this is coincident. It is related.











We knew about crisis since long time ago, and govt and so called expert just found out.

I did say, when they find out about the crisis, it would be already late.

Dont tell me I did now warn.





Remittance,
- I had been talking about signing- criminal law with countries to get back criminals, loot wealth into Nepal. We could post intelligence official in those countries after signing such law and get assistance from security of that country.

And offer 20% commission from wealth confiscated from money launderer, to those who give information. (I have information about chaudary, send me 5 arab )


- (an idea from some media), govt could only give re permit to those workers who had send money through legal channel. this is easy way.






I too advice to build reservoir based hydro above big projects like tamakoshi around 7 year back. Cause of current FM, when he was hydro minister, now we are facing unofficial loadshedding.


They are beginning to do, what you said last year, Simrik ji.



EV,

Now we have electric bikes, scooters with range of 100 km. In 1.5 year, the range may reach 200km, then govt can ban import of bikes, scooters whose capacity is less than 145cc.




Hydrogen vehicles for cargo.
This would be best for Nepal. Break water, utilize hydrogen in Nepal and export Oxygen. Wonder if we could replace LNG with hydrogen.

I agree with Rising. The odd/even numbers in major cities for six months. This will ensure fast movement of vehicles, less fuel consumption and less pollution.
The fuel inflation is here to stay. Recently prices have come down after the news that Biden is releasing a million barrel a day from Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Chinese lockdowns. But these are temporary measures and oil will end up 120-150 by EOY. Why?

1. Come summertime, demands rise, construction peaks up, oil will keep going up.

2. Air traffic has yet to reach 2019 level. Folks will travel this summer.

3. US Shale producers haven't increase capex. Shale oil well depletes quickly. Increasing capex is required to maintain the production level stable. Biden government and his party are talking about levying windfall profit taxes on oil companies and casting them as price gouging villains. Just yesterday, there was a hearing in the US Congress to investigate high oil prices. This definitely doesn't encourage oil companies to explore and drill for more oil.

4. Canadian heavy oil producers haven't increased capex either. Also, what is discouraging oil producers besides regulatory uncertainty is significant backwardation on oil futures contract. For example 2025 oil futures contract was trading for 60 dollars per barrel until January 2022.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/clz25

No one will invest significant money on new oil fields if oil is bring 60 dollars per barrel in 2025.

5. Russian oil may be completely shutdown by May as storage facilities are being filled quickly. If oil wells are shutdown, its going to be hard to bring them back online. Some oil wells may be permanently damaged.

6. OPEC doesn't have much spare capacity.

7. Houthis will try to damage Saudi oil infrastructure.

8. Lack of steel pipes, drill heads, drill bits, fracking sands and manpower in US/Canadian oil fields due to supply chain issues.

9. When we think of oil, we only think of oil that goes in our vehicles. Petroleum products are used to make things like vaseline to perfume to plastics to medicines. The demands for consumables are coming from developing countries. Remember an average US person consumes 10 times more fuel than an average Indian. What happens when the Indian middle class keeps getting richer?

Bigger vehicles, one car family becomes 2 cars family. A bike riding family becomes a car owning family. Demands for AC, Refrigerators keep going up. More steel has to be produced, which means more iron ores, coking coal and metallurgical coal needs to be mined. Heavy equipment running on diesel are used in mining.

10. EV? Where will all the nickel come from? An EV needs strong steel structure to carry all those heavy battery packs, 160 lbs of copper per vehicle. Again, more mining means more fuel consumption. In the short term. more EV means more fuel consumption.

11. No significant oil field discovery in the last 10 years. The fracking technology developed by US shale producers brought plenty of oil in 2010s, leading to oil prices going down since its peak in 2013-2014. The mantra was to drill, drill and drill. And they did drill a lot without thinking of economics. Many of these companies went bankrupt. Now, the boards of these companies are tight and shareholders will rebel if they increase capex by a lot.
Guyana offshore is a good discovery but it will take time for that field to replace depleting US shale which many oil engineers think will go dry in this decade.


We are in for a long decade of high inflation. We will need a huge recession to temper it down. The standard of living for many folks will go down. In many countries we will see civilian disruption as already being seen in Srilanka.
As a citizen, we can do our part by consuming less.

EV is a long term solution. 10 years out.

I posted following in October last year.

Few steps the government can do for next 1-2 year term to escape this bout of inflation and conserve foreign currency.
1. Stop new hydro projects. Complete those that are in various stages, complete the transmission lines. India won't be buying our surplus electricity unless its from projects where Indians have invested.
2. Stop imports of luxury vehicles.
3. Stop imports of foreign wines/spirits/beer.
4. Put restrictions on imports of cereals/grains/palm oil/soybeans from Argentina. Most of them are being smuggled to India.
5. Put special units to stop gold smuggling from TIA.
6. Jail Hundiwalas. Have police special forces go after them.
7. Open the country to people who are vaccinated. Make VISA free if they spend more than 15 days in the country.
8. Improve process for folks willing to go to S. Korea, Japan and Israel. These countries are clamoring for Nepalese labor.
9. Start landing buddhists from around the world in Lumbini.
10. Start campaign to reduce consumption of imported goods.
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I still haven't seen hundiwalas in jail. The cops know who they are. I would add few more. Government is reactive, but many of us knew this would come. Worldwide commodity inflation was very evident in 2H last year.

1. Establish high support prices for domestic grain production.
2. Stop imports of flowers/furnitures/shoes/cosmetics/nuts/luxury fixtures for homes/cigarettes for one year.
3. Require outsourcing and consultancies to get paid via Nepalese banks.
4. Cut subsidy on LPG into half. People won't conserve until pain is felt.

But our bread and butter is Remittance and Tourism. Stop gold/silver smuggling, money laundering, cut imports. The government also needs to be proactive to get funding lined up from IMF/ADB/World Banks. This is something we can together overcome.
As a citizen, all of us have a duty to curb our consumption.

रेमिट्यान्स पठाउँदा रेमिट्यान्स कम्पनीले लिने शुल्क घटाउने । रेमिट्यान्स कम्पनीबाट रेमिट्यान्स पठाउँदा पठाउने कामदारलाइ Incentive काे व्यवस्था गर्ने । अनावश्यक अायात बन्द गर्ने वा कर बढाउन मिल्ने भए बढाउने र स्वदेशी सामान प्रयाेगलाइ बढावा दिने नीति लिने । जलविद्युत सकेसम्म बढी उत्पादन गरी निर्यात गर्ने र उपयाेग गर्ने ।

Fuel lockdown is not the solution.

Policy level changes to promote E-V and efficient electric supply/turbo charging stations can only solve current fuel crisis.