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As per govt's statistics bureau- Nepal's economy is in negative by around 1%.

They are calling it recession but technical term is stagflation. Meaning- GDP down and presence of high inflation.






My analysis, prediction, warning is posted below. Where is Golden boy's analysis, prediction, warning about Nepal's economy.












(Re post from Fri Mar 31, 2023 6:22 pm ........... older one was very very long, this one is also long---- even after including only important lines)



How accurate """I""" was regarding current economic and share market crisis?

What """"I"""" analyzed and predicted regarding economic and share market crisis, which was started by 2078 Monetary policy.











- Sun Aug 15, 2021 11:35 am (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6289&page=2) (Three day after monetary policy- my anger began)

monitory policy was alchina.









- Sun Aug 29, 2021 3:26 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6289&page=2)

There is a think called PYRAMID. With out big investor, Share market wont survive. Little investors in share market are like cockroaches. Without elephant, they wont survive.










- Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:43 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6289&page=2)

In Nepal, there were people who laughed, were happy when share market crashed to 1100. They cheered when many lost a lot of money.

Then two year later, those people had to sell their chicken below vegetable price.












- Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:40 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6289&page=2)

One drop of ink of NRB caused all these problems.













- Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:21 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6361&page=7)

Crisis began- or should I say, action.

- dependra bahadur chettry said NEPSE should be 700.
- NRB anti share market, anti economy/liquidity monitory policy of 2078.

Reaction:

1: First was share market collapse.
2: Liquidity crisis.
3: Interest rate crisis.











- Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:45 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6361&page=7)

In other word, economic crash. Business will feel it pretty soon, and public- in 6-12 month..










- Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:01 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=5870&page=3)

New prediction;

1: Share market will burn.

2: Economy will burn.

3: More micro management will start.

4: More blame game will start.

5: Things will get worse, before it gets better.

6: My prediction about those who bought and cornered garbage shares are on. Good shares could crash by 50% and garbage shares- 80-95%.











- Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:38 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6144&page=3)

Economic analysis and prediction:
1: ..... Now wait for the ocean to burn if they dont reverse their decision.

2: ..... will lead to huge NPL and NPL will create even worst liquidity crisis than current one. I REPEAT, NRB POLICY WILL LEAD TO HUGE NPL.

To solve the problem, govt will have to inject 100s of billions into the system, which wont happen under pakhe rule.

3: Things will only get worse.

4:









- Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:47 am (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6144&page=3)

5: Share market crash will lead to chicken farmers' suicide.









- Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:41 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6144&page=3)

Banning import would only help in balance of payment which is one of the most important parts in an economy which has many many important parts.










- Sun Apr 10, 2022 7:02 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6144&page=3)

Economy is vast.


I had been saying 6/9 month ago, We only had dollar reserve problem, then NRB monitory policy destroyed the whole economy.










- Mon Sep 19, 2022 5:23 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6361&page=4)

In the past, let's say, govt used to spend 100 for 100 things. Like- 50 for operation, 10 for loan settlement, 40 for development.

Now cause of high interest rate and monitory tightening and lower revenue, govt will be spending 50 on operation, 20 for loan and 25 for development (total=95 things and spent 95money) (today we have stagflation)




** And when there is hyper inflation - govt will be spending 150 on operation (since salary and all expenditure will increase by a lot) and has to borrow 50 to settle loan and no development fund.











- Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:09 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6361&page=3)

I kept on saying, if you dont fire incompetent, the person/s behind the problem- instead of fixing the problem/fixing the mistake- they will focus on trying to prove themselves right.

And this governor and d governors and NRB did not just cut hand, they kill the person.











- Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:08 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6361&page=2)


गभर्नरलाई संकेत गर्दै अर्थमन्त्री शर्माको प्रश्न: अर्थतन्त्रमा कहाँ संकट छ ? समस्या कहाँ छ ?



- Liquidity crisis
- Interest rate is 18%
- Factories running at less than 50% capacity
- Share market has crashed
- Consumption has crashed
- Govt revenue is down by a lot
- Balance of payment is suffering


Where is media's golden boy wagle?











- Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:15 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6144&page=2)


How to solve problem?


First thing first. To solved problem, first of all, you need to find/see the problem.
Then find the reason behind the problem.
Then comes right solution.










- Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:00 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6144&page=2)

But NRB is forcing expensive loan to all. End game- all will go bankrupt cause of NRB.

Morons, I hear in media, social media to increase interest on deposit and attract deposit? Brain dead piece of Sh!t.












- Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:00 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6144&page=1)

Cooperative crisis:

........ cooperative was- instead of telling govt that if interest rate goes up by a lot, economy will collapse, cooperative will collapse, there will be huge NPL in BFIs- what cooperative demanded/talked about? they were demanding NRB to let them increase interest rate too. ........


I been warning depositors that, if you demand high interest on deposit, you will lose your principle too.


With this crisis teach them- management in bfis, promoters, nrb bureaucrats, govt bureaucrats, politicians, so called civil society, media etc the lesson? I doubt.

WHEN BORROWER SUFFER, EVERYTHING COLLAPSE.











- Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:41 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6144&page=1)

All crisis is crated by one institution- NRB. NRB's monetary policy created all those crisis. Loose monetary policy, fix liquidity crisis, fix interest rate crisis, fix export crisis. All crisis will be fixed.


What economic crisis- liquidity crisis and high interest rate crisis (these two crisis are/were forcefully pushed by NRB and their advisers)- have created?

1: Collapse of Cooperative:

2: Crisis in Micro finance:

3: Collapse of economy/business:

4: Destruction of borrowers/customer of banks and also banks themselves:

5: Collapse of govt revenue:


Hang NRB officials!











- Sat Dec 17, 2022 3:52 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6361&page=2)

soon people will start to commit suicide if economy not saved.










- Wed Feb 08, 2023 7:54 pm (http://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6361&page=1)

High NPL is due to slow economic activity and high interest rate. (Added) (And I did warn about high NPL when NRB tightened monetary policy that lead to this crisis around 1.5 year back)

Current economic crisis is due to lack of economic activity, high interest rate, lack of loan (liquidity crisis).

Lack of economic activity is due to lack of loan, high interest rate.

And dumbs in NRB blaming what is needed to be done. NRB again trying to promote/preserve the reason what caused the current crisis.

I am not against Golden boy, I want to see him succeed as FM in future (I think he will be FM after 1 or 2 election), but I am 99% sure he cant change fate of economy of Nepal.

But since economy is ran by advisers- and I am not confident he would he building circle of right advisers- he is likely to bring in incompetent, failure, negative etc individuals like 25 broker owner.








Tragedy! Sati ko sarap!

In Nepal, many are furious about- forceful conversion of religion. Irony! Idiocy! same individuals who are angry also go on to support same who are behind, who been financing forceful conversion- i.e. CIA/EU.






Irony! Tragedy! about Golden boy is similar. People are expecting a person (Golden boy) to change the fate of economy, whose belief is- Nepal's economy is too big, needs to be down sized. Nepal should not dream big- dream should only be to be like Srilanka.

People are expecting to bring economic miracle from a person (Golden boy) who is against economic miracle- in Nepal. And NIP too are promoting same person to lead their govt as Finance minister to change the economic fate of Nepal and bring economic miracle.











Golden boy has hardly talked about economy of Nepal. I think, whatever he has talked about, 90% he talked about during last 6 month.







About current economic crisis- Golden boy's first view/analysis was- economy should be down sized. Same was view of many bureaucrats and advisers. (My view was- down sizing economy means- killing Nepalese, and people are committing suicide) And I am worried, he will bring in same failed/incompetent bureaucrats and advisers when he become FM or even make them NIP party members.



Then weeks/months later he changed his view. Golden boy's second view was- Nepal should target to become srilanka like. Remember, Srilanka is far richer than Nepal, but Srilanka is still a poor country.





Today, I read Golden boy's another view- "Nepal needs to replace remittance, Nepal govt needs to drastically reduce unnecessary expenditure like Old people's pension" (I agree, but... )



Golden boy talks about replacing remittance money inflow and in the other hand says- Nepal should not think bigger than making Nepali economy- Srilankan like economy. Irony- Many Srilankans work in the middle east.


Briddha bhatta- I believe Golden boy been promoting freebees, now saying, government should reduce expenses.




Now question is- Why Golden boy keeps in changing his views? Is he desperate for power, become FM? Why he wants to become FM when he does not even believe in economic miracle?










I dont hate Golden Boy. I want to see him succeed as FM. I believe Golden boy can bring in systemic changes like bringing in IT based finance ministry, reducing middle man in development projects, reducing tax and increasing penalty etc. And I support all those.


But I think, he does not understand monetary policy, fiscal policy, foreign trade, manufacturing, business, foreign policy, share market.


So what can he do- immediately build relation with economic experts, share market experts, monetary policy experts, fiscal policy experts, foreign trade experts, manufacturing experts, business experts, foriegn policy experts etc. Make sure all those experts are competent, not proven failure, who are not alchina/negative people, who are open minded..........


In NIP- Golden boy needs to build economic team- whose job is to keep an eye on economy. Make record- what are the problems economy is facing, what are the positive sides of our economy, what are the theories which can solve economic problems, how to improve economy.

Make a list of bureaucrats and experts. Make a list who are failure and who are successful. Who has better understanding of economy and who do not. Who are good economic analyst and who are not. Put incompetent in black list and make sure you keep those failure far away from yourself and govt. Never give second chance to failure and to others- give them benefit of doubt.



This way, you can build your team as soon as you become FM (in current govt, FM been FM for weeks and he has no idea how to fix problem, he has no competent team, he cant find team).

This way, you can make emergency decisions, make emergency policy changes as soon as you become FM (current govt is suppose to make policy changes in the first day, but since they are bad party, they have no idea how economy has been doing of Nepal).




(I can solve half of the problem economy been facing within a day- and another half (increase export) with in a year.)

Pros and Cons of Golden boy (since he may become FM after 1 or 2 election):



Pro:

- He has talked about method to bring down corruption by eliminating middle man (unnecessary bureaucrats).

I think this works. I too have similar method. I want centralized payment- just send the money when work is complete and verification of work should be done through govt and private sector (engineers) (secret agents).

I am 100% sure, bureaucracy have been making things complicated to milk bribe.

This method also help to make doing business easy.



- Using technology to bring down corruption, reduce hassle, reduction of wasting time, documentation, Centralized information system etc.


In above two, I think, he will do the best job.



- Reduce tax and punish those who evade tax and criminals. Exactly what I have been saying. Just like bad people in leadership is destroying our country, same way, money in the wrong hand is also destroying our country.

Society/economy needs few super rich people. In Nepal, those people are corrupt, criminals, dalals- that is why, nepal is unable to get benefit from them being super rich. Innovation, investment come from those super rich. In Nepal, money is in the hand of wrong people.

Reduction of tax and punishing those who evade tax and criminals- would end those wrong rich people and money will move into right hand.


















But always remember, IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID!



It does not matter- how clean you are, how good service you provide .... if you cant increase economy, make life better, people wont support you in mid term.




Cons:

From his interview, speech- I feel like- he has no/limited understanding about monetary policy and fiscal policy.

He does not understand monetary policy and may go for micro management. He does not understand basics- job of govt is to create environment for private sector, investor. Micro management destroy things.

I think, he does not understand production, business, trade, market, foreign policy.

Danger! Worst would be- he may take advice from wrong individuals- like that ex finance secretary (dont know his name, he is owner of 25 broker). He destroyed our economy when he was finance secretary, his suggestion is one of the reasons currently our economy/share market has collapsed and people have committed suicide.

That dumb, ignorant, arrogant low life still arguing that our economy is fine, has not crashed. He is an example, what kind of bureaucracy been running this country- who does not know the reality and still think they know all. And treats people like raiti.



Can Golden Boy- bring in team of competent people?

My hope from this Golden Boy is- he does not seems arrogant like Yuraj k so he may reverse his mistake when he makes one.


Hope, NIP wont let Golden Boy waste time of Nepal for more than 6 month if he becomes FM while he is making mistake.



Can Golden Boy analyze data? We can find good data in Nepal. But still there are some data which are good for making decisions like- When consumption of oil falls 40-60%, it means, economy has collapsed. Even when consumption decrease by 5-15%, govt is suppose to act.

So, can Golden Boy read those data. Can he read data like- when consumption of chicken crashes, it means people are suffering. When people spend less money during dashain, it means people are dying.

Current Bureaucracy cant read those data, they dont even care even when People are committing suicide.

Would Golden Boy changes his policy when such data appears? Would Golden boy changes his team and find a new positive, competent team?????






Threat! Golden boys said- he understands foreign policy. Not really. He is either CIA asset or he is ignorant, dumb as hell in foriegn policy.

He talks about hating corrupts, criminals and he does not even know that those corrupts and criminals are either CIA or RAW or Double agents or potential agents. How could you hate criminals, corrupts and still support West/India??????



What happens when CIA/RAW threatens to kill his family. Would he sell Nepal to save his family. Like- some communist said- They supported MCC to save govt, cause they were threatened by CIA.


He says, he understands foreign policy. Does he know, to get protection from CIA, RAW- you go to China/Russia. Does he know, many countries are close to Russia, China for protection from CIA. Does he know, Iran/Saudi had a successful peace negotiation cause Saudi was promised protection by China/Russia from CIA, Zoo, West?


So Golden boy is either CIA asset or ignorant as Rock.


Nepal cant waste too much time on another experiment or incompetent person.




{What kind of people Golden Boy surrounds himself with is more important- and I am not that confident about him. If he is honest, he can improve but that wont be enough.)







SECOND TO GOD will add more when SECOND TO GOD finds/sees more about Golden Boy.

Golden boy's impact would be same as Baburam's impact in politics but just 25%, in my view.


Media made Baburam biddwan, presented as hope to people who desperately waiting for a leader who could change their economic fate. And enough people bought it. Also Bahuns took Baburam as Hero from bahun.


(Same happened with Yuraj k)


I believe, when maoist became largest party, more than half the votes maoist got from cities was due to baburam.




Same is likely to happen with Golden Boy.

Media and some jhole made Golden Boy. Impact of him in politics will be same but just 25% of impact baburam had. Impact is down cause- baburam and yuraj k turned out to be fake.




I think, in Chitwan- NIP chances 99%, in Tanahau - They may double or triple the votes (triple of 7k may mean victory) and in Bara (dont know, may be zero but vote may increase significantly from what 1.5k??).

Golden boy!

Guess what? Sh!t is also golden


What are the pros and cons of Golden boy?