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A Major Fundamental Factor In Stock Market - Interest Rate Levels - Constant Analysis

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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6760
The market now loves Jay Powell

The market's interpretation of Fed Chair Powell's comments was clear- they think the Fed is freaked out by the market decline and will be...

In his speech Wednesday, Powell spoke directly to the stock market volatility and somewhat downplayed the recent action. "It is important to distinguish between market volatility and events that threaten financial stability," Powell said. "Large" sustained declines in equity prices can put downward pressure on spending and confidence. From the financial stability perspective, however, today we do not see dangerous excesses in the stock market."

------------ Like I have been saying, when share market looses a lot of money, dont expect people to invest weather in share market or in business. They even wont spend money in consumption, so no growth.

Savages so called economist dont understand. But they fully cover media, thinking of Nepal

sati ko sarap
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
Thanks Bhairab ji for some good points. But, like the most programs of social insurances they tend to be costly. People draw out more than they put in and eventually the government will have to make up for the shortfall leading to
increase in taxes. I like your points about tourism, agriculture and electricity and that they should be our area of focus.
I am always amazed what small Netherlands have accomplished in Agriculture, becoming the second largest food exporter in the world. They exported $92 billion worth of agricultural products in 2017. If we could do 2% of that, it will change the face of our country.

On tourism front, I think two million visitors are attainable. I read somewhere today that Nepalese travelers going abroad spent twice the amount of what foreigners spent in Nepal in the last 9 months. That is a crazy statistic.
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761
2 - Their salary and earning is below 20,000 and all is spent in their living expenses.

1 - Electric Vehicle Revolution lie ahead. & OPEC knows that their future is now constrained.
2 - Saudi Arabia ARAMCO (largest energy producer whose valuation is roughly at 2 trillion dollar) is selling off its 5% stake (Largest IPO in world history) to enable govt to raise 100 billion dollar which shall be reinvested in building tourist destinations in Saudi Arabia.
3 - Many vehicle manufacturers (volvo, volkswagon, audi toyota etc) are stopping their petroleum based vehicle by 2025 and JOINING THE LEAGUE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES
4 - Shift from current Lithium Ion Technology to Solid State battery technology will create a revolution that world has never seen
5- Demand for WHITE GOLD (ELECTRICITY) will surge rapidly in coming days
7 - World Economic Forum also envisages shift of regional power from middle-east to other countries and restructuring of energy industry

1 - Nepal now has to focus on only 3 things, - ELECTRICITY SALE - TOURISM - AGRICULTURE
2 - Many policy level understandings have been reached for cross border electricity sales

1 - Nepal needs large funds to build electricity
2 - Funds from UNORGANIZED SECTOR will now be available which can be prudently invested
3 - 300 Billion units of electricity can be produced & EXPORTED FROM Nepal EASILY & commercially and can fetch NET 1600 Billion Revenue to Nepal EACH YEAR. That is a huge money.
4 - Nepal needs funds. Either Internally or Externally. Internally Generated funds will help more as the money remains in Nepal.
5 - This fund will be huge and large and autonomous like CIT & EPF.
6 - CIT & EPF made profitable projects like madhyabhotekoshi, tamakoshi etc. Than this fund can also make.
7 - CIT & EPF has been successful and has large asset base. Than this fund can also follow the same.
8 - CIT & EPF has also billions of rupees in stock market. This fund will also diversify its investment and have stock investments.
9 - This fund will change lives of worker class populations and also create huge saving surplus which otherwise have been spent on Consumption alone.
10- Positivity

....Nepal Has Wonderful Future.....Baki Ishwor Ko LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:29 am. »
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
Why don't they just build and maintain 10000 KM of 4 lanes highways enveloping the country? That, itself will bring more economic development and prosperity than all the programs of social insurances.
I am as liberal as they come, however, this is tremendous burden for the government.
Its resources and time is better spent on improving infrastructures and producing educated mass.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6760
हिटलरको देशबाट सामाजिक बीमा हुँदै यसरी आयो नेपालसम्म सामाजिक सुरक्षा

Not just technology, US stole ideas from Hitler too.

- From rocket technology, nuke, car, probably a lot more .......

- Car for all was Hitler's idea which helped US to build their modern economy.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6760
Samajik Surakshya Ain 2075

- 1 kharab each year.
Pro- people will get pension
Con- that money will be controlled by idiot, criminals.

By the way, what is the difference between current sanchya kos and this??? Govt will give more grant?? And Nepal will be in huge debt just like US????

I dont remember, during oli's previous govt or next govt, they started public discussion about samajik surakshya, my advice was "let all nepalese who want to join, join. including bharya, foreign employee, house wife as well as unemployed".

I guess they will start in second phase.

They are talking about investing that fund in so called productive sector..... what could possibly go wrong????

Current pension funds and life insurance are destroying economy by accumulating most of the capital from Nepali society which they deposit in Fixed account demanding high interest. That kind of investment is unproductive investment... depositing for high interest is unproductive and harms economy which we are facing.

By the way, has Samajik Surakshya Ain 2075, begun??? Do they have money in their account? Is this ran by new trust or by old trust like CIT? When will they start to invest in share market?

Why dont NEPSE give online account to CIT, arm, police etc immediately???

PS- some where I read, it took them 7 years to draft Samajik Surakshya Ain 2075.

This is why, I have been saying, let think tank make policy. Bureaucrat are slow, they have no guts, incompetent, not motivated.

It took them 7 year just to draft, wonder how many years they will take to solve problems it will generate.

And why is Oli and bista trying to take credit???
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:09 pm. »
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 129
पूजीभैरवजी, एउटा जिज्ञासा राख्न मन लाग्यो ।

नेपालको Debt/GDP ratio कति छ होला ? केही जानकारी छ भने यसमा प्रकाश पारि दिनुहोस ।
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761
Samajik Surakshya Ain 2075

1 - Around 35 lakh workers in industries.
2- Minimum wage is around 13500.

Section 26
1-Contribution from employee & employer, sanchayakosh and other (which amounts to roughly 1 kharab each year)
2 -Grants from government/international institutions
3 -Profits from the funds
Hence huge amount shall be generated

Section 32
1 - Shall be invested in fixed deposits/bonds/debentures (Section 32 ka & kha)
2 - Shall be invested in shares of banks and financial institutions and other limited liability companies (Section 32 ga)

...This will create huge savings in the nation...Currently savings are of Employees Only and is related to EPF & CIT. but now a large worker population will have their seperate fund with the largest quantity of money...This larger population never saved but always spent what they little earned...Now they have to save as well.....Also such savings shall be channelized to the banking system and aid in liquidity creation..... Sthaniya Nikaya Ko Paisa + Samajik Surakshya Kosh (Worker Sector Only) = Substantial Liquidity in the future....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:56 am. »
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761

Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 91
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761
Government going for strict measures for different financial statements in Tax & Bank for loan

1 - This will increase tax

2 - This will decrease loan quantity of ineligible corporates in banks making CD ratio comfortable

If applied strictly can immediately bring around 1 kharab to system.

....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761
दशैंपछिको दुई सातामा बैंकहरुमा ३४ अर्ब निक्षेप थपियो, कर्जा विस्तार १४ अर्ब
Merero Lagani

it is estimated over 5 lakh tourist came this 6 month, Baisakh 2075 to Ashoj 2075 (previous year over 7 lakh tourist in 1 year)
Here tourist refers to original tourist who registers themselves at immigration
One tourist spending minimum 50,000 will make the total spending 25 arab which will also come in banking system

Hotel establishment is outflow of money as decors and furnishing causes outflow of money
Income of tourist causes inflow
Around 25 arab in 6 month is a good start

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761
C/D Ratio
Prabhu - 75%
ADBL - 75%
GIME - 75%

...In such a situation where govt expenditure is tooo low, the C/D ratio is 75%... If only government increases its spending efficiency and if deposits of Sthaniya Nikaya can be shown as deposit, its obvious C/D ratio is dragged down.... Further after big projects like tamakoshi, sanjen, mahdya bhotekoshi and other hydros starts to pay their loan installments, the C/D ratio will considerably fall down.

...C/D ratio crisis in its final stage of demise wherefrom it shall never incurr again and interest rate to go down significantly again.......

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761

विराटनगर, (रासस) अर्थमन्त्री युवराज खतिवडाले मुलुकमा अहिले तरताको अभाव नरहेको बताउनुभएको छ । विराटनगर विमानस्थलमा आज सञ्चारकर्मीसँग कुरा गर्दै उहाँले अहिले वित्तीय सङ्क्रमण भएकाले त्यस्तो देखिएको मात्र प्रष्ट पार्नुभयो । मन्त्री खतिवडाले प्रदेश र स्थानीय तहले खर्च गर्न नसके बताउँदै आर्थिक तरलता उत्पन्न हुन नदिने गरी व्यवस्था गर्न लागिएको जानकारी दिनुभयो ।

Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 163
Is it liquidity crisis? what a nonsense information dispatching from
media ? Is the saving ratio decreasing in banks ? Actually it is not
liquidity crunch , it is irresponsible act of banks. How can they give
loan of amount money which they do not posses. It shows the complete
failure of NRB monitoring system and those NRB personnels who are
in monitoring line must be punished. Banks are business houses .They
always want to maximize profit. In crux banks want to pressurize NRB
to make lower CD ratio showing liquidity crunch. Government and concerned
authorities should be conscious in this matter which is completely artificial.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6760
owner of Blackmandu sold shares When it was @ 1250-1300.

Looks like he still has not bought back. He must be desperate due to latest good news and revolution about to happen.
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761
1 - About 70,000 crore (In Previous F/Y) remittances comes in Nepal through legitimate channels and estimated amount of another 20,000 through hundi & other sources channels EveryYear

2 - That is 246 crore of remittance each day

3 - So if Expenditure is around 200 crore, still there is net saving of 46 crore per day (Just Roughly Calculated)

4 - Expenditure has risen sharply because of hydros (We need to import large amount of clinker, Steel, turbines, foreign consultancy while making hydros)

5 - I think things are balanced, and only shortcoming is government inability to spend effectively


....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:35 pm. »
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1947
Our Daily Trade Deficit is around 200 Crores.

Which Capital Project is going to give Yield of 200 crores daily in-fact not even 200 crores Monthly also !!

Every Day Nepal bata 200 crores Vides Jade xa ...

Estimated 2 Crores People Staying in Nepal out of 3 crores !! Means Per Person daily 100 rs. Vides jade xa.

:roll: :roll:
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761
BizMandu consistently posting negative remarks - 25% truth and 75% misleading information about interest rates.

Suppose economy has 22 Kharab loan, than around 2 kharab is interest generation and it is enough for giving out new loans

All the capital projects like steel/ hydros/ cable cars do not need loan lumpsum but loan is given in installments. Hence the 400 arab immediate loan is also misleading.

Further many existing capital projects will start paying EMI soon

And nowhere talks about govt decision to put local authorities money in banking system which has eased credit by 100 arab. and future of capital spending is good.

....Bizmandu is posting interest rate news so frequently and everything with negative impressions.....Baki Ishwor Ko LEELA....
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 129
Liquidity created, Technological breakthrough announced, Bottom at 1164-1172 (=1888 x 0.618; ref. Fibonacci series) tested twice, Market undervalued, Dormant investors awake and gathering, Major projects under completion...

Time to spot fundamentally strong stocks with potentially huge trend reversals.

Gather your strengths and invest wisely!

Happy investment!!!
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6760
NICA paying 11% for debenture
Sanima paying 10%

Sanima will save 20 crore in 10 year.

Is NIC suffering from low interest phobia?

100 billion added in BFI's deposit. They were saying, market crashed due to liqudity crisis, now BFIs have billion, which will take 3/4 month to lend.

Will NEPSE cross yesterday's loss and add another % today? May to it is too big expectation. Investors in Nepal are not that intelligent.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:28 am. »
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761

1- Decision Made
2 - 1 Kharab Liquidity Created

1- NIC ASIA will suffer heavily due to its long term obligations if interest rate falls and this guy's job (Monthly over 4 lakhs) will be in jeopardy so he is at his best to say interest rate wont fall, dont beleive such selffish fools
2 - Interest rate is bound to fall after big projects like tamakoshi, etc (Atleast 1000 MW in total) starts to pay loan (Tamakoshi, Sanjen etc will already be completed and will start to pay loan from next f/y)

....Baki Ishwor Ko LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:16 am. »
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761
Ponder Upon These Three Questions Which arent compatible with each other

1 - Why Banks are decreasing Interest Rates?

2 - Why Banks are currently lending aggressively?

3 - Why debentures from NIC ASIA & SANIMA

Ponder Upon This Answer

1 - The C/D ratio issue will solve forever with huge cash of local authorities being deposited in banks which will push C/D Ratio dramatically down and bankers knows that they must lend continuously with the same speed to have sufficient business when C/D Ratio goes down

2 - Despite C/D Ratio is 80% they are issuing debenture to ease the C/D ratio and still continue the business for when C/D Ratio is dramatically down they might have already lost the good customers and they dont want to miss them. Whoever creates huge customer base now have long term benefits and bankers know that and few are willing to take the risk to maintain that in the light of pending policy level amendments.

.....All this will be verified in future.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
great news
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 761

संघीय सरकारले चालु आर्थिक बर्षका लागि महानगर, उपमहानगर, नगरपालिका र गाउँपालिका गरी ७५३ स्थानीय तहका लागि तीन खर्ब ८ अर्ब ४८ करोड ७२ लाख रुपैयाँ छुट्याएको छ। गत बर्षका लागि २ खर्ब २५ अर्ब रुपैयाँ छुट्याएको थियो। गत बर्ष चौमासिक रुपमा ७५ अर्बका दरले पैसा पठाइएको थियो।

स्थानीय तहमा ३ खर्ब ८ अर्ब रुपैयाँ निक्षेप जाँदा कर्जा-पूँजी निक्षेप अनुपात (सिसिडी) ८० प्रतिशत कायम गर्दा बैंकहरुसँग २ खर्ब ४६ अर्ब रुपैयाँ ऋण दिन योग्य तरलता उपलब्ध हुन्छ। यो बर्षभरीमा उपलब्ध हुने तरलता हो।

1 - This is Must
2 - This will compensate for government inefficiency in expenditure which always tightens the money availability in the system
3 - This will immediately create liquidity of 102 arab in month of kartik and 102 arab in each another 4 months
4 - Further pending payments for capital expenditure by central government will inject more money
5 - This will fulfill the gap in the cycle of revenue collection and expenditure and system will be restored with money availability which in-turn will push the interest rate levels down

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela......
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:04 am. »

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