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Many NRN asked about the situation of capital market in nepal and were also keen to know what local investors doing .When they found local investors gradually exiting, most of them showed strong aversion to invest in Nepal.
Our fianace leadership must take lesson now otherwsie it will be too late and nepal will become next Haiti.
Capital market is key to open the door of prosperity. Our BIDWAN ji must understand this fact.

PMC Bank crisis as said by fianacial expert in india is failure of Raghu Ram Rajan leadership. How can a fiancial instituion NPL regulated by central bank increase from 2% to 72% overnight ? So called best leadership regualtion in india can go into failure, what will be the situation in nepal?

Punjab Maharastra Cooperative bank collpased recently push many people to death. This week 2 people who ve deposited there hard earned money have fatal heart attack. Tow others unable to withdraw the amount for there treatment died.
Cooperative bank in India are regulated by RBI. Cooperative financial institution in our country are not regualted by NRB. Cooperatives ve high risk exposure in real state (recent exmaple is lali gurans cooperative unable to get back loan form some of the defaulter who used loan to purchase land and home). So if the real state price bubble blast, it will trigger unimaginable financial crisis in Nepal. Concerned stake holders must take early precaution and safe guard the depositors asset.
Already some of the cooperatives declared bankruptcy (eg Oriental)

JUST IN: Reserve Bank of India cuts interest rate by 25 basis points

After Nepal's economy, I know more about US economy. I even know chinese economy more than Indian economy. Its' been years I stopped following indian tv. World does not care about Indian economy.



Indian economy is growing at 5% and projection of the year is 7%, which is better than Nepal's economy but they are talking about slowing down of economy, even talking about economic crisis.

In Nepal. Some are talking about economic problem. But yuraj k says it grew at 7%, every thing is fine. Learn from US and chinese and indian economy. Their GDP growth are great and talking about crisis in a year. And they are already making decisions to tackle their incoming crisis. In Nepal, yuraj k says, everything is fine. Just like commie. They wont see the crisis until millions are dead.


About Banking crisis in India. (I believe, banking crisis in India is more problematic for Nepal and economic crisis in India, Banking crisis do lead to economic crisis and vice versa).


I read a week ago, Indian NPL is close to 10%, most of those NPL is from cooperative.

Its amazing, idiots politicians from both commie and congress are pushing for three pillar economy- including cooperative. Why, they used to feed their dogs from INgo, ngo money, which must be running out, now they wants to feed them with cooperative money.

Communist are dead in the world, in Nepal they are alive cause they buy votes and cadres using Ingo, ngo money and govt money and cooperative money. Just like in India, in Nepal too, its cooperative will bring banking crisis far more than other Bfis. and its yuraj k who been promoting cooperative, cause he is corrupt and brain dead.


I believe Indian banking crisis would effect Nepal too, and I believe there are not many good economist in India. So to save Nepal, I would like to save indian banks. So how to save banks:

1: Which ever economic sector is pressuring banking sector, create more demand in those sector.

2: Send companies in those sectors into merger and acquisition even before they go bankrupt. If there are too many BFIs, send them to merger too. Companies using old technology, inefficient should be closed through merger, acquisition.

3: Reduce interest rate.

4: Increase profit of Bfis.

5: Increase liquidity in the BFIs.

6: Assure depositors that govt guarantees their deposit. If there is panic, it will create more damage than NPL.

7: Teach society, dont run after high interest rate on deposit. If interest rate on deposit is high, ultimately, it will collapse the bfis and forget about interest, they wont even get their deposit bank.





Banking crisis could come in Nepal too due to monitory policy and high interest rate. And cause of cooperative. It is just a matter of time, cooperative will collapse. Some have already collapsed in last few years. Its cause politicians are looting through cooperative. Burn politicians inside cooperative if you loose money in cooperative. Fixing interest rate of 16% in cooperative is good for cooperative. Cause borrowers are more likely to be able to pay 16% than 20%, which decrease NPL.

भटाभट ढल्दैछन् भारतमा निजी बैंक, नेपालका लागि बन्न सक्छ गतिलो पाठ
बिशेषगरी घर, जग्गामा गरेको लगानीका कारण भारतीय बैंक संकटमा छन् भने केही ठूला कम्पनीले पनि बैंकमा आफूले गरेको लगानी डुबेको घोषणा गर्न मात्र बाँकी छ
https://aarthiknews.com/news/7894

BFI investment in Nepal is mainly focussed on Real State sector (loan issued in different titles like OD,Home loan, personal loan etc ). If some of the defaulter are exposed, then it may trigger run over.
So NRB and BFI must take measured step immediately. Once the avalanche is triggered, nobody can stop it

Will be a catastrophic move if TELECOM opt for FPO
टेलिकमको एफपीओ आउनै लागेको हो ? रेट कति पर्ला ?

खराब अर्थतन्त्र उकास्न भारतले ल्यायो खर्बौको राहत प्याकेज, सेयर बजारमा उछाल, अर्थमन्त्री खतिवडा के गर्दैछन् ?
विदेशी लगानी पनि घट्दै गएको छ भने स्वदेशी लगानी पनि घटिरहेको छ । जसको प्रत्यक्ष असर राजस्वमा देखिएको छ । सरकारले लक्ष्य गरेजति राजस्व उठ्न सकेको छैन ।
सेयर बजार निरन्तर घटिरहेको छ । सेयर बजारका लगानीकर्ताहरु अत्तालिएका छन् ।
तर, अर्थमन्त्री खतिवडाले भने अर्थतन्त्र उकास्नतर्फ कुनै ध्यान दिएको देखिँदैन । गुनासो लिएर गएका लगानीकर्ता र उद्योगी, व्यवसायीलाई उल्टै हप्काएर पठाउँछन्
https://clickmandu.com/2019/09/95552.html

Learn something from BIG BOSS:
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government proposed to cut corporate tax rates to 22 percent for domestic companies and 15 percent for new domestic manufacturing enterprises as part of a raft of measures to boost economic growth.
Tax we pay is used only to fill NETA ji and government bureaucrats BIG TUMMY.
What the hell is this ? बजेट खर्च निराशजनक, दुई महिनामा साढे ४ प्रतिशत मात्र.

अर्थ समितिलाई देखाउँदै बैंकलाई ब्रोकर लाईसेन्स रोकेको नेप्सेलाई बोर्डले माग्यो जवाफ
https://clickmandu.com/2019/09/95014.html
तोकिएको मापदण्ड पुरा गर्ने वाणिज्य बैंकलाई सहायक कम्पनी मार्फत सेयर खरिद बिक्री गर्न पाउने गरी ब्रोकर लाईसेन्स दिने तथा संघीय संरचना अनुसार प्रदेशहरुमा आर्थिक रुपमा सक्रिय जिल्लाहरुमा (काठमाडौं बाहेक) स्थानीय स्तरमा ब्रोकर लाईसेन्स दिने सम्बन्धमा ७ दिन भित्र जवाफ पेस गर्न भनेको छ
यस अघि नै नेप्सेले संघीय संसद अन्तर्गतको अर्थ समितिले प्रष्ठ नभने पनि स्वविवेकी निर्णय नगरी अर्को व्यवस्था नभएसम्मको लागि भन्दै बैंकलाई सहायक कम्पनी खोल्ने र ब्रोकरको कामलाई रोकेको छ

Dont play PING PONG with investors

Good example of liquidity creation by share market-मानिसको शरीरमा ४.५ लिटरदेखि ५.५ लिटरसम्म रगत हुन्छ तर मुटुले सामान्य अवस्थामा दैनिक ७६०० लिटर रगत पम्प गर्छ।
यसैगरी सेयर बजारले पुँजी परिचालनलाई सुदृढ र गतिशील बनाउँछ। राष्ट्रिय अर्थतन्त्रलाई समाजवादउन्मुख बनाउनु भनेको सेयर बजारलाई ध्वस्त पारेर हैन, त्यसलाई यथावत् चलाउँदै उत्पादनको व्यापक विस्तार गरी सेयर बजार नियमन गर्ने हो

विश्व बैंकका उपाध्यक्ष तथा कोषाध्यक्ष जिंङ दोङ्ग हुवाले २०० बर्ष अगाडी अमेरिका गरिब कृषि प्रधान देश भएको र ९० प्रतिशत अमेरिकी कृषिमा आवद्द थिए । तर अमेरिकाले ३ वटा क्षेत्रमा ब्यापक सुधार गरेपछि अहिलेको अवस्थामा आएको बताए। पहिलो बलियो नियामको रुपमा सरकार, दोस्रो उद्यमशिलता र तेस्रो वाल स्ट्रिटको अवधारणले अमेरिका अहिलेको स्थानमा पुगेको उनले बताए। उद्यम गर्न चाहने जो सुकैलाई पनि त्यस समय वाल स्ट्रिटले पुंजीको ब्यबस्था मिलाएको उनले स्मरण गरे /
Well said Mr Jing. How can you install these thoughts in our BOSS mind ?

नेप्सेका सीइओ साउद भन्छन्- कालोधन सकिएपछि सेयर बजार घट्यो
अनलाइन चलाउन नसक्नेलाई किन चाहियो अन्तराष्ट्रियस्तरको प्रविधि ?
What do you mean to say ?
Is it the way of expression by person occupying responsible post ?

I think, merger between good bank and bad bank is good, wont harm the economy.


This is not India or West where banks give loan without collateral.


In Nepal, banks take up to 300% collateral, which is loot and NRB does nothing, instead force banks to take huge collateral. There could be some exceptional case like certificate loan- if there is problem in these loan, Banks should collect loan from dead bau of yuraj k and chrinjibi nepal.

If there is huge economic crash, there wont be money in the market to buy auctioned collate, that day, bfis would collapse.



In Nepal, bad banks means- banks which cant even make minimum profit of 25% and whose deposit is poor.


When those banks are merged with Nabil or EBL, it will be good for Nabil or EBL too and dharti ko boj like CBL will no longer waste our precious O2.


Like, CBL has 50 arab deposit and makes 10 EPS. When it is merged with EBL which has 100 billion deposit and makes 35EPS.
If they are merged, swap ratio could be 40/45. So When EBL gets CBL, its capital will be increased by .4 ratio while deposit will be increased by .5 ratio. No problem here.


And incase of EPS, when EBL gets CBL at swap ratio of 40, direct EPS will be 25 and when EBL liquidate NPL of CBL, EPS will increase by another 5/10, and there will be a lot of cost saving from reduction of branches, staff etc. So EBL whose EPS is 35 will get more than 40 EPS from CBL.





So no problem, here.



Theory and reality are two different things.

सम्भावित वित्तीय संकट आंकलन हुँदै गर्दा १२ वाणिज्य बैंकलाई जसरी पनि बलियोसँग गाभ्न राष्ट्र बैंकको कडा रणनीति

The decision to merge non-performing banks with anchor banks--those performing much better--could turn out to be a disaster and increase complications to well performing institutions.

चिनियाँ ह्याकरले नेपाली बैंकबाट लुटेको पैसा जनताको होइन
Then whose money is this ?

Strong question raised on the security of Banking System and Digital Transaction.
How can NEPSE and SEBON assured us safe online share transaction when hackers can loot from foreign JV banks who ve invested billions in banking security ?

Such incident will reduce general public faith and BANKING SYSTEM and capital market which further hit our economy.
Take appropriate measures before its too late.

MF is arrogantly lying

पुँजी बजार सुधारका लागि सरकारले धेरै काम गरेको अर्थमन्त्रीको भनाई छ
Is it true or you are lying ?

I warned about this a year. The blame goes to people like yuraj k, nepal of NRB, NRB, so called experts, social media, bharya bankers etc.



They were force fully promoting so called productive sector loan.




========================================================
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:11 pm
https://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=5446



Elaborated cause and prolonged liquidity crisis:

1: Unspent cash in Govt coffin
2: CCD ratio
3: Forced loan for so called productive sector.

I want to elaborate the 3rd one, since I have been talking about 1 and 2 for a long time now.


When liquidity crisis started, when every body including NRB, so called expert, politician, wanna be expert in social media all blamed BFIs for liquidity crisis, I blamed unspent cash in govt coffin. And some time later I added CCD ratio.

They were blaming bfis giving 5/10 billion more loan than they should, l went against the whole country and said its cause cash outside the system- govt coffin and CCD ratio.

Last year or so, many have began to blame 1 and lately some are adding 2 too. So my job is done here regarding 1 and 2.

Now during last few days, I have added third most reason.

Let me elaborate it.

Let me explain the easier one first.

If bfis had given share loan first then other priority sector then, this happens:
- give 100 share loan. Then immediately would have returned 100 back to bfis.
- Then give 80 to hydro then 60 would have returned and 20 would have left Nepal.
- Then give 48 to hydro, then 36 would have returned and 12 would have left nepal.
- then give 28 to hotel/cement again, then 14 would have returned and 14 would have left nepal.
- Then give 11 to agri loan. And 9 would have returned and 2 would have left nepal.
- then give 7 to industry. and 2 would have returned back to bfis and 5 would have left nepal.
- then give that 1 to retail loan.

Here, total liquidity created would have been: 100+ 80+48+28+11+7+1=275
In this scenario, Share would have govt 100, remember, share market capitalization is half of GDP and both SMC and GDP are undervalued and very small.
Hydro would have govt- 128
Hotel/cement- 28
Agri- 11
Industry- 7
Retail- 1
Here all gets healthy required capital.


But due to so called priority sector, this happens:
- give Hydro 100, 75 would have returned, 25 would have left nepal.
- give hydro 60, 45 would have returned, 15 would have left
- give hotel/cement/industry 36, 16 would have returned and 20 would have left
- Give 12 to agri, 9 would return and 3 left
- give 7 retail, 2 would return and 5 left
- give 1 to share

Here total liquidity had been created= 100+60+36+12+7+1= 216
Here, Hydro would get 160, hotel/cement/industry would get 36, agri 12, retail 7 and share 1.
Here, hydro gets too much capital, and share very low. And share price falls. And local instead of investing in hydro, they buy alcohol. Public dont want to invest in share and instead spends on luxury.

So difference would be, 275-216= 59 , 20%. Bfis loose 20% business so they push loan with money they cant loan.



But that's not the worst.

Here is the hard part: hard to understand if you are not a really good economist.


Remember, current dactor governor, he is not good in banking or economics or money. There is a saying in Nepal "duplicate sadu use more ashes".

Since, he does not understand fiscal policy, and since no one in NRB understands fiscal policy, When during his first fiscal policy, he increased requirement for priority sector loan in BFIs' loan. And if I remember, from Next year, liquidity crisis started. And Next year, due to liquidity crisis, he tightened share loan, personal loan and increased requirement for priority sector loan again. He kept on increasing every year and liquidity crisis only got worst.

I explained above how so called priority sector loan is the third biggest reason our liquidity crisis got worsen.

Wanna be economic expert in social media all talks about giving priority to so called productive sector while giving loan. When going gets tough, tough gets going.


Now let me talk about the real danger created by micro management of Money by NRB, sarba gani yuraj k's fixing of high priority sector loan. They have forced BFIs to give a big big portion of loan to so called productive sector.

In economics, pushing hard something always leads to crisis. I have been advising not to force banks to give too much loan to priority sector if there is no healthy demand. So reduce percentage of such loan.
Or at least, instead of telling BFIs to give 40% loan to priority sector, tell bfis to separate 40% loan to priority sector. If there is good demand then banks can give, if not hold that cash. Which would help in maintaining CCD ratio too.
I dont even remember is that priority sector loan is 40 or 30, they keep in increasing every year.

Here is an example, the devil created by so called force full priority sector loan. """""""""""""HYDRO-POWER"""""""". We all know, lately a lot of latest hydro in development are in bad condition. Its cause bfis are forced to give hydro loan to who ever demands hydro loan. Cause of the priority sector loan.

This is what happens when you make force in economics. In US too, when BFIs pushed for housing loan, There was housing crash in 2008. And bill clinton pushed for that loan.

In Nepal, NRB, sarba gyani yuraj k is pushing priority sector loan, and I can see potential crash in hydro sector, probably cement industry too.


So reduce percentage of priority sector loan and change policy to, BFIs should hold certain percentage of cash to priority sector loan. They dont have to give it if they dont find right candidate.



Top three reasons behind liquidity crisis:

1: Unspent cash in Govt coffin
2: CCD ratio
3: Forced loan for so called productive sector.



================================================

Hydropower sector will not sink alone. It will also pull the BANKING sector and general public deposit. So government must act wisely, otherwise dark cloud is looming above our economy.

IPP sector is doomed. Kukhura chor, kapada sauji, jagga byapari sabai hydro developers bhaye pachi yestai ho.

Most of the IPP developers have ZERo knowledge about hydropower. Most didnot do feasibility study properly, and now crying about 55% less production?

Investment in so called real sector is not always profitable, realistic and balanced approach is needed. Eg of TOO MUCH sugar.......

खर्च अभावले २० जलविद्युत आयोजना डुब्दै, लिलाम गरिदिन सरकारसँग आग्रह

रुग्ण आयोजनासँग भएको पिपिए आधारमा विद्युत उत्पादन ५५ प्रतिशतसम्म कम - यसो हुँदा बैंक ऋण तिर्न सक्ने अवस्था छैन ।
यही कारण सर्वसाधारणको निक्षेप रहेको ३६ अर्ब रुपैयाँभन्दा बढी लगानी पनि डुब्ने अवस्था रहेको

Reduce CGT through upcoming budget and declare it final, then see the effect in revenue volume - suggestion to Finance Ministry,IRD and team- Pre Budget suggestion


THANKS to all (Finance Ministry,IRD and team.) for considering the suggestion, but later part has still not been addressed

जलविद्युत कम्पनीलाई लगाम, अब आइपिओपछि हकप्रद सेयर निष्कासन गर्न नपाइने
What will happen to RS applied by those hydropower already listed in NEPSE eg API, NGADI, BARUN ???
SEBON must clear this doubt before the directive come in effect.

Provide good incentive to MERGER accepting banks especially weak and small ones. Eliminate A<B<C<D categorization of banks and treat them according to there strength.