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कुल गार्हस्थ उत्पादन वृद्धिदर ६.९४ प्रतिशत पुग्ने

http://bit.ly/2petpbX

- GDP going way up, NEPSE confused and moving sideways.
where are those who used to say, NEPSE is not following reality (GDP) when I used to say, NEPSE is mainly follow future expectation rather than present that is why PE ratio varies so much.

कर्जा नियन्त्रणले सवारी साधनको व्यापार २० प्रतिशतले घट्न सक्ने, अर्थतन्त्र संकूचनतिर जाँदै - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/02/10/50959.html#sthash.CBGBvtJZ.dpuf


-Only car loan's interest should be highest, not other vehicle loan. Fixing limit is also ok with me, from economic, financial point of view.

व्याजदर अन्तर घटाउने सरकारको रणनीति, व्याजदर निक्षेपमा ६/७ प्रतिशत र कर्जामा १०/११ प्रतिशत राख्ने लक्ष्य - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/02/03/50320.html#sthash.ROhQy7QE.dpuf


-मन्त्रिपरिषद्को बैठले पारित गरेर अर्थमन्त्रालयले सार्वजनिक गरेको वित्तीय क्षेत्रसम्बन्धी रणनीतिले कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन (जीडीपी)मा वित्तीय क्षेत्रको योगदान ४.१ प्रतिशतबाट ८ प्रतिशत पुर्याउने लक्ष्य लिएको छ ।
As per govt data, gdp is 2500arab, bfis interest income is 200arab. So gdp contribution from bfis is 8%. Looks like Govt only included BFIs profit, not interest given to depositor.

Now Govt wants to increase contribution to 8% which is double. For that, CD ratio needs to be dropped to 8-10% and Govt has to deposit their revenue in the BFIs.
Govt could divide revenue into 4 category- 25% in saving ac, 25% each in 1/2/3 mth fixed account.

Which would increase economic activity and increase business of BFIs and thus increase revenue and creates good paying job.


-यसका लागि जीडीपी आकारको ८९.७ प्रतिशतमा रहेको निक्षेपलाई शतप्रतिशत तथा ७३.६ प्रतिशतमा रहेको कर्जाको आकारलाई ८० प्रतिशतमा पुर्याउने लक्ष्य तोकिएको छ ।
For this CD ratio needs to be down to 8-10%, Hundi cartel should be punished- govt should punish hundi with 25yr jail and 10000 times fine.
Govt needs to punish those who dont pay tax with 200% fine.
And give time and fine to declare their property.
Within 1year- pay 15% tax in declared property.
1-2yr- pay 20%
2-3yr-pay 25% tax
then after that 200% fine for undeclared wealth. Which would bring money into system and banking channel.

-

Govt says, Nepal's GDP is around 2500arab/ 25B$:

Let's Calculate with wild data and imaginary estimation:

--- IMPORT: Nepal imports around 700arab worth of goods, but real figure could be 1000arab. And those goods could be sold at 3000arab (3times)(including huge custom duty). So GDP contribution from Import be (3000-700="""""2300 arab"""")

Its amazing, import alone contributes around 23B$ and govt says GDP is 25B$.

-- BFIs- BFIs lends around 2000arab. Here, BFIs and depositors gets around 10% (200arab) in interest. And those who take loan may make around 15% profit in average(300 arab).
So calculation from BFIs data, we could say, contribution from those who take loan to GDP is around (200+300="""500arab"""").


-- Wages from BFIs angle- Those who take loan, may be paying direct wages, let's say 50% (""""1000arab""""").

-- Mutual fund- Mutual funds lends around 50 arab and those who take loan from mutual fund may be making more than 100% return.
Which means, we add """"50arab"".

-- Remittance- around """500arab""".

-- Out flow of money- 1400arab, we have already included import of 700arab, and secret import 300arab which is paid by inflow which we dont calculate, so no need to include 300, and out going remittance could be 200arab which is included in 1400 arab, so out flow increased needed to be reduced in GDP would be (1400-700=""""-700arab""").


-- Govt contribution- Budget 1000arab- including salaries, donation etc, since, we import a lot of goods from 1000arab during development projects which we have already included during out flow of money, so no need to reduce any amount in 1000arab.

So we can say, GOVT contribution to GDP is """"1000arab"""".

-- Agriculture- the hardest to guess, let's say 50Rs/day/person (50*365*2,50,00,000=456.250arab= """450arab"""). Since we already have deduced import(import of fertilizer, agro product etc), so no more figure to subtract.


SO THIS IS SMALL PART OF ECONOMY, AND CALCULATING JUST FEW ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, NEPAL'S GDP IS SEEN AT LEAST (2300+500+1000+50+500-700+1000+450= """5100arab /51B$""""")



90% self employed dont take loan from BFIs. Those who take arab loan from BFIs may make 15crore profit but those who dont take loan but invest just 20thousand makes around 3lakh per year. So, under unknown self employed individuals make far more percentage in profit than those who take loan from BFIs. So there contribution to GDP is huge too.
EG- when BFIs give taxi loan- BFIs/depositor make 10%, taxi owner makes 10% while taxi driver makes more than 25%. Plus, there are mechanics who fix taxis, who dont take loan from BFIs but may be from cooperative.

Professionals like carpenter, painters, hairdressers and may make a lot of profit than their investment.

More than 25% of houses in cities get paid in rent.



JUST CALCULATING ROUGH DATA USING IMAGINATION, GDP is clearly about 50B$ while govt says its 25B$. how is it possible???

Real GDP could be 100B$.

Some may say, south korea's GDP is 1 trillion $, how could nepal's GDP could be 1/10 of South korea?

Just imagine, if our GDP is ten times higher than today, dont you think, NEPAL would look like Skorea or even better. What if those who ride TATA car in Nepal earns 10times, they may ride better car than SKoreans.


ONE OF THE REASONS NEPAL IS POOR CAUSE OUR 100 MAKES 20eps WHILE SKOREA'S 100 MAY MAKE 200eps.
Worst is, 20% cash is sitting idle in BFIs/NRB, 250arab sitting IDLE in Govt coffin.

If we want to become, rich like SKorea, our BFIs need to make 150EPS and Other business need sto make 500EPS.

And Uniliver makes more than 1000eps.