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Technical analysis, Dinosaur budda, shadow, plane, pilot, radar

Moderators: बिमलमान, Dilbert.

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5713
F TA, as far as fundamentals are concerned, NRB killed it.

Now share market is totally up to NRB, maoist finance minister and sher bahadur.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1440
@RS

Market is already corrected 12.7% from its TOP.
Whats your future technical/fundamental projection from this point ? Can we expect upmove before Dashain ?
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5713
Today, I am proven correct again about Technical analysis.


Its like, a plane and the pilot. It pilot who flies the plane not the other way round, but RADAR follows plane not the pilot. So the boss of the pilot have prior knowledge of the mind (fight path) of the pilot but still follows the path the plane is going on.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5713
In Nepal, budda control NEPSE and for last few years they have been trying to crash it.

In bearish market, Normal TA shows bearish.

Every time NEPSE crashes, and somebody buys which lead to bounce back, those buddas sell a lot of share to crash again.

So when buddas dump shares, TA shows NEPSE dark very dark. This is why, TA in Nepal is unnatural.

Just like buddas cant sell their majority shares at higher price, similarly when they start to buy, they wont be able buy at lower price. And TA will show, NEPSE hitting the sky.
Member
Registered: May 2018
Posts: 4
TA dependent is not a reliable thing in Nepal as we do not have the proper laws and all business parameters to guide us. Nepali market is mostly based on speculation and also lots of people who just go with the flow.

Yes, there are few companies whose fundamentals can be followed, but at the same time you can be sure that the return they are going to be declared are already out few days before the declaration. I feel we can get good return by analyzing which scrip to choose from and stay with you guts, analysis and common sense.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 667
- Big Guys Never Buy or Sell on Technical Analysis
- They Buy/Sell after thorough research

....For Example, even if Technical Analysis shows strong buy in microfinance whose P/E IS VERY HIGH- big guys wont pour few crores of rupees there.....And if they get cheap banking scrip whose p/e ratio is 7/8 than they can pour few crores easily there.....

......Technical Analysis just attempts to detect trend and patterns and is ESPECIALLY for TRADERS and do not have RISK/RETURN Trade offs and if of no significance for real investors.....Fundamental Analysis & Research is for real investors.....

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela.....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5713
Professionally driven share market would increase slowly when Finance minister gives a lot of clues that govt is working on to address liquidity crisis.

But instead market is decreasing, which only means, there will be a few upper circuit breaks in near future.

Tic Toc

I will love to hear painful noise from those fools who will be criticizing upper circuit break.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5713
When market is down unnaturally, its buy time.

99% dont take advantage from this down market, they will keep on complaining how 1% control more than 90% of world's wealth- for life.

Born losers.


Tic Toc, its budget time, program & policy time, monitory policy time- which will address liquidity crisis. Which is likely to change Nepal's economy fundamentally forever.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5713
In NEPSE, average daily trading is around 40 crore and average in big trading is around 1 arab.

Which means, 50-100 big buddas and institutional investors can easily manipulate the daily market just by using .25-.5% of their investment.

Just imagine, when dinosaur buddas, who dont even know how to open computer start to follow Technical analysis?????

At first they may think they have gone high tech. But the reality is different.

In Technical analysis, there are support level and resistant level.

In negative sentiment market, when market is close to support level, and dinosaur buddas think market is about to break the support level- since they were watching that level and technical analysis is coming true, they will start to sell (since, they are too big and with their small portion could impact market) and market will break the support level. And starts to sell more.

Those dinosaur buddas wont know that Market did not fell cause of technical analysis but due to the action of those budda. And those buddas will sell more. Its like dinosaur buddas are scared of their own shadow.


Could Dinosaur buddas are being manipulated by some Technical analysts to achieve their vested interest???? We would never know until we question those buddas about what those TA been telling them, how TA approached them.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5713
Year or two ago, I saw good in SADBL, I bought it @320 (around). With in a week its priced crashed to 260 (around). I made the decision based on fundamental. But probably a couple of month later SADBL reached 500 or 600. I saw it with fundamental analysis, but since others did not see it, I suffered in short term. May be other followed technical analysis.

In US market, I saw Alibaba as a great buy. I liked it when it was 60 (probably) and bought it above 80 (i think). I lost around 10 dollar in a few days. and after probably in a few month, it started to grow and reached around 190 (around). I bought it based on fundamental analysis. Unlike in Nepse, US may follow technical analysis professionally.

Technical analysis saw good in Alibaba late, and fundamental may have saw it early.

This could mean, its fundamental analysis that drive the future market, and technical analysis drive short term market.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5713
Technical analysis is all about action/investment activity of aggregate investors.

Investors make decision based on fundamentals, and those actions of over all investor is reflected on technical analysis, which means, it does not need to follow fundamentals, investors do all the homework regarding fundamentals. So when fundamentals tell investors its buy time, technical analysis show that there is positivity in majority and opposite if it is negative.

Which means, based on fundamental, investors decide and it is reflected on technical analysis. But all fundamentals are not available to all investors, so majority (in currency amount) guides technical part. Which makes technical analysis important in short run.


Its like, a plane and the pilot. It pilot who flies the plane not the other way round, but RADAR follows plane not the pilot. So the boss of the pilot have prior knowledge of the mind (fight path) of the pilot but still follows the path the plane is going on.

And when the radar tells, the flight is going on the wrong direction, the boss knows, the path has changed. It does not happen regularly.

The rather tells you were the plane is going by the direction it is moving. But when the radar sees plane turns and goes straight, the radar will tell the plane has changed path and going on another direction. Radar wont know until the path has been changed. But the boss of the pilot may know if the pilot is following its destination.

Same with the technical analysis. Technical analysis is the Radar not the original fight path. Technical analysis is as good as plane travels in straight line. And when plane changes direction, then technical analysis finds out the new path.

Which is, only fundamental analysis can tell the future. Technical analysis is good for short term and wont be able to tell sudden change.

So it wont be wise for technical analysis to predict future.

Like in NEPSE, it started to crash after NRB made a move.

Technical analysis is like historian who can tell what happened. And also could tell what will happen unless something big change occurs.

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