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चन्द्रागिरि हिल्सको सेयर (CGH)

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Member
Registered: Sep 2013
Posts: 259
चन्द्रागिरिको शेयर किन्नेलाई यहि कंम्पनीले १ पटक सम्मान गरिदिय हुने हो ,अलिकति भएपनि मनमा शान्ति होला कि .... ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5628
CGH

Property- 3 billion
Reserve- negative 40 crore
Loan- 2.5 billion
Investment- 21 crore (dont now if this is part of the property or not)


So, -10 (or -31) crore and bankrupt



Price- 1540

Jay players. Budda ko sanak chale pachi anything in possible in Nepal's share market, ,,,, BUT BUT BUT not for long term.





Share market is no joke. Buddi chaicha. Look ko dhan dhari din chaldiana. No wonder, even after having 10s of billions that dude is never happy looking.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 825
CGH price is way higher than NABIL.

God bless CGH buyer at this price..


:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Feb 2021
Posts: 34
The more castle in air you build, the steeper the collapse is, didn't expect CGH to go down soon but glad it did. Atleast Q3 report was a waking call :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 127
7,84,110@Rs 2075.21 ma aaj ko din samma karobar vaechha.....mkt damn care whatever funda.....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 664
bye bye ..... CGH.

:) :)
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1818
CGH :-

As the Price is Not backed by Fundamental at All, So it is Just a Bubble which is getting Bigger and Bigger with the Time and will Burst for Sure One Day once the Objective is Met.

Don't Know When it will Burst, Whether it will 3000, 4000 or 5000/-

The END BUYER will have the Probability to Lose Upto 90% to 95% of his Investment Amount in it Provided he is Selling at the Most Bottom rate over a Period of time.

GOD Bless them with Wisdom !!
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 825
All brave souls who are buying CGH at this price should be declared as " Wisest of all"..

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5628
I believe in a lot of basic principles. One of them is, kukur ko buddi hundiana, buddi hune kukur hundina.


I have seen dhakal in TV. I can easily read his personality.


CGH and his other forth coming cable car business may end his criminal empire (which i think it is). (his bank, in my list, second worst after NICA, Its amazing, he charged many like me very high interest and still global banks profit was/is so low while business volume is huge. must be, he could be stealing money from global bank, lots of loan at very low rate).




During early years CGH got a lot of hype and still turned out, they were in loss, wonder how are they going to be in profit in future when there is no longer hype. Plus, as per news, dozens of cable car will be opened in near future. There are already 3.


As per your study, DalioBuff ji, their projection is 2500/per day visitors. Let's say, there will be during holidays. 2500 customer *60 days*400Rs. profit per head + 500 per day*300 days*400Rs=12 crore profit from cable car

100 customer*365 days* 1500 Rs= 5.5 crore from hotel. (4000/night/person- I think, they may not even get 100 guest per week)

Max profit could Reach 17.5 Crore annually that's 12%. EPS 12 means price should never cross 250.

Even their max EPS is 33, means 700 Rs. Today's price is 2500.

And some day they have to handover their project to govt. I dont which, its all business or just cable car.




This project is owned by secondary market players. They are playing dangerous game. I think they are pouring 100s of billion in their own stocks, mostly IPO- I think they will loose 100s of billion more from their secondary market manipulation than their investment in business.

Share market does not run on sanak.


I think, one of the main reason, good stocks in secondary market are underperforming cause, most of the big investors are trying to hype their own new IPOs rather than good stock. This wont end well for them. But for society, good for them. Like I said before, peaceful transfer of wealth.




Can mutual fund sell recent IPOs? If they can, when are they planning to sell CGH? Have they added IPOs from secondary market? Questions need to be asked. I would be waiting for this month's balance sheet of mutual fund.







"""""Somebody: All brave souls who are buying CGH at this price should be declared as " Wisest of all".."""""""""

If they are buying with their bau ko paisa then we should not care, but, if they are buying with public fund like mutual, pension, bank, insurance then there should be a long list to be hung.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:45 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
Thanks for those numbers Trader's words.

I am calling on all analysts on this forum to pitch in - we are here to learn from each other hoina? Here is my opinion:

CGH seems to be a far far outlier from the rest of the gems on NEPSE. It is on a bubble state. While techies are busy looking at their daily charts I prefer digging deep into their business model to fundamentally understand how they intend to:

1) strategically grow their business
2) stay competitive
3) effectively operate and manage

CGH is nothing more than a mountaintop resort (hotel amenities with cable car, etc.). If I was to take out my analytical metric I would use a hospitality business model. COVID has changed a lot of factors in those metrics because it's a very challenging time for this industry. Most are in red (losses). So then we begin the question of how CGH is any different?

The numbers CGH has forecasted seems to be at the very high end. But are they realistic? Let's look at them:

1) Customer base - CGH has projected YoY percentage of customers to increase at a rate of 27% for the next 3 years. Most resorts are lucky if they can match customer head count of 2 years ago. In reality they have significantly decreased this year and hoping to slightly increase to those levels of 2 yrs ago. I would put the custsomer base to increase (if at all) at around 5% YoY. Just to give you an idea - their forecast claims that if the resort was open for all 365 days in a year there will be over 2500 customers per day. Is this realistic?

2) Revenue - Sales is projected to grow at 52% annually for the next 3 years. For this to happen customer base needs to grow exponentially - unheard of in the hotel/resort business. This happens a lot in the tech world though as most tech IPOs have high sales growth in their first 3-5 years. This is due to economies of scale - which unfortunately CGH is unable to do as the customers need to come into their physical location to book a sale.

3) Operating profit - CGH has forecasted this to grow at 163% every year for the next 3 years. To grow this fast it needs to grow its revenue as quickly and drastically cut its cost of sales and operational costs. Given that they've run their biz for some time achieving this kind of growth this quickly seems odd.

4) EPS - During the last 4 years they had negative incomes - it earned Rs 2.11 in one year and Rs .06 the following year. Yet, they have forcasted EPS to be Rs 4 this year and grow at 186% for the next two years. Given its earning history I do not believe it has the ability to grow this quickly and earn Rs 32.84 in the year 2079/2080 as it says it will.

5) P/E ratio - if we use this metric, the ratio today and according to their forecast would be:

P/E
2076/2077 - negative
2077/2078 - 644
2078/2079 - 110
2079/2080 - 79

Given today's price of 2578 you would have a P/E of 79 almost 2 years from today. Let's think of this another way. Tourism and Hospitality sector P/E of 25 seems reasonable to you? If so, we can estimate the price by keeping the P/E constant (using their forecasted EPS):

Market Price
2076/2077 - negative
2077/2078 - 100
2078/2079 - 589
2079/2080 - 821

Alright let's put another spin on this. If we use the above market price of 100 (which we may be fairly valued according to it's earning forecast) - it's market cap will be approx 1 arab. We can use Net Asset Value to calculate the value of it's PP&E including land but that's another story. Today, however, CGH's market cap is not 1 arab BUT a whopping 40 arab. That's more than all the hotels listed in NEPSE combined. It's more than the value of MNBBL and CBL combined. It's more than the value of Laxmi bank.

For those of you holding 12% float it's going to be an incredible ride. I hope you can now clearly guess up or down.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 664
अहिलेको मुल्यमा 'चन्द्रागिरि'को share उठाउनेहरुलाई,



बिभिन्न नाममा 'लगानीकर्ता'हरुको हक हित गर्न खुलेका संस्थाहरुले,



सम्मान गरे हुनी थियो l

:) :)
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 69
company has projected its earning in offilering letter.As per offering letter this fiscal year end eps 4 around which is unlikely .upcoming year eps around 23 it is i think uptimum 15-20 achieveable..and next year company has projected around 33 which is likely.....there is nothing muvh fundamentally to be excited with cgh but in the view point promoters have corporate culture and they are well appreciated beside some drawbacks! Promoters hold 88% and public just 12% means if the promoter wish to peak cgh they can.if there is election for director .....proxi जम्मा गर्न धेरै गार्हो छ किनभने न त mufu सग नै धेरै सेयर छ , न त बजारमा आएको! चन्द्र ढकालको अर्बपतिको सुचिमा नाम लेखाउने सपना साकार पार्न पनि cgh को भाउ कुद्न सक्ला ! नत्र बाबाजिका ....
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
Just curious - has anyone done any earnings forecast for CGH?

What will it earn in the next four quarters? Only then we will discuss further on their current price.
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 22
5000 kai tgt bhaneko thiyo 1500 around mai. Hajur ko logic ek dam sahi chha.
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 127
यस्को गति हेर्दा कतै hdl जस्तै ५००० सम्म नै पुग्मने हो कि?

१) चन्द्र ढकाल र भाई ढकाल सग मात्र ५८,८६,६७४ कित्ता
२) आम्बिका पाैडेल ,उत्तम नेपाल,नबराज नेपाल,हाथबे ,कुमार केसर बिष्ट,डोलराज शर्मा,उमा जिसी सग ४३,२९,४५० कित्ता
३) Bhatbhateni super market र मिन बहादुर को परिबारको सग २४,२४,२६२ कित्ता
आधारभुत सेयरधनिहरुसग भएको सेयर जम्मा १,२६,४०,३८६ कित्ता
४) आन्य promoter (खुद्रे) ८,५९,६१४ कित्ता

५) आयोजना प्रभाबितहरुसग ३,०६,८१९ कित्ता
६) सर्बसाधरणहरु (कर्मचारि समेत) सग १५,३४,०९१ कित्ता


आजसम्म कारोबार भएको CGH ६,४१,५३३ कित्ता
ordinary share को करिब ४२% कारोबार भएछ।
कतै यो सेयर ठुलो मुखमा परिसकेको हो कि?

Fundamentally त यो झुर नै देखियो,कोरोनाले बिज त पुरै बर्बाद होला।
यस्बारे के छ बिचार साथिहरु?
« Last edit by Eagle on Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:31 pm. »

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