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Froth in the stock market

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Member
Registered: Feb 2021
Posts: 34
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Analysis made public by one of many independent firms: https://kclastute.com/assets/uploads/files/articles/Upper_Tamakoshi_ERP_(1).pdf


Thanks for the link, gives overall picture, however their prediction regarding fair price for stock has got way beyond their prediction.
« Last edit by fireflies on Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:12 pm. »
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
CGH market cap after today's circuit= 31.89 Arab
Length of Cable Car=2.4km
Valuation per kilometer=13.28 Arab
Valuation per gondala=31.89/38=.83 Arab :lol:

If I assign a PE of 60, it has to make 1.5 million profit every day of the year after taxes.

But, who cares about PE. Stockholders are making money. Good for them. I am only scared because some of these frothy stocks may bite some investors like Everest Bank did last time and keep them away from stock market which is not good.
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
Somebody sir, that is a question we all have been asking - and I think we are getting closer to an answer.

The production will be ramped up on a unit basis, i.e. first trial unit will be 76MW. It has 6 units for a total of 456MW. As you know, UPPER is the largest hydro project thus far. At full production it is expected to supply approx 50% of the current power available in our country. That's a lot! I expect any excess generation will be fed through the grid and possibly exported (although this decision hasn't come from the BOD as of yet).

There are a number of analysis already done and made public. I have posted a link to one of those below. Although it is almost 2 yrs old it has a similar analyis to mine (their's is more formally written). I expect EPS to be around 17.5 for fiscal year '78 and approx 29.8 for '79. If we assume industry avg PE of 40 we can see that the price appreciation to be around 1192 in '79. This is on a ramp up basis but at full production the EPS may significantly increase.

It is also worth noting that more than half of UPPER's ownership are established public institutions and it's BODs are well represented.

Analysis made public by one of many independent firms: https://kclastute.com/assets/uploads/files/articles/Upper_Tamakoshi_ERP_(1).pdf


Note: Views are my own. Please do your own research.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
@DalioBuff..so if Upper starts production by next, what EPS are you expecting in next quarter/year? I dont see it giving any sort of dividend for at least few yrs/
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
UPPER's price in my opinion will most likely go higher as it's production about to start next month. When the EPS is announced next quarter/year we will see the justification for it. If we take any multiple comprables in relation to other hydros UPPER will still seem undervalued.

To answer simrik sir's question: which are the stocks in NEPSE most disconnected from their fundamentals?
CGH!!!

Can anyone PLEASE shed some light on why CGH is worth 1719?????
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
2. Upper..
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
LOL. Everyone wants to make money overnight.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
Newbies- they ask for advice and ask if garbage G share, how is it? I tell them, bad and later it rockets and blame me for life.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
Every bull cycle, we get companies that are valued with disregard for their fundamentals. Investor sentiment(misplaced) is prime reason for this disconnection. Eventually, market sentiments wither and these frothy stocks come back down to the earth.
Forum folks, which are the stocks in NEPSE most disconnected from their fundamentals?

I will start by naming one. Please add to the list, so that newbies can stay away from these eventual dogs.

1. STC

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