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Thank You Pujibhairab sir

SHARE03
For Long Term - Invest In Promoter Shares of Good Hydros or Cement of Reputed Group (JhaaarPaat Group to be avoided) in good price while ensuring close connections & timely information flows and ensuring IPO & announcements before and during conversions - Minimum 5 times to 6 times in 4-5 years After Conversion - This investment mode has been rewarding and one of my favorite since last few years

For Short Term - Wait For Monetary Policy

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

Namaste sir,
Its been a long havent seen your post. Sir what is your strategy for upcoming recent day?
Regards
Share03

लेण्डर्स डिफल्टको जोखिम बढ्दै, निर्माणाधीन जलविद्युत आयोजनाको कामहरु रोकिने अवस्थामा
https://bizmandu.com/content/20220713151043.html

If this news is based on reality, what will be the future of HYDRO sector in near future ?

Provision will hit the Profit of Overall Banking Sector.

Hope the NPA Amount doesn't Surpass the Paid up Capital + Reserve available with the BFI.

The Risk is more Porn to Finance Companies and Devlopement Bank whose Paid Capital is not enough.

If the NPA is more then the Paid up Capital & Reserve then Technically it is a Bankrupt BFI.

What's Action the Central Bank will take in such SCENERIOS, It will go for Corrective Action by taking Board & Management Control or it will be Declared Bankrupt, the Upcoming Monetory Policy will decide the Rule and Methodology for Such SCENERIOS.

In the Past we have seen institution like Samjhana Finance which got Bankrupt in the Past & Gurkha Bikas Bank which got downgraded to Finance Company.


The Power Game is On against the Governor one by one and is attacked frequently using Media, Member of the Parliament with one or the other Reason so that he don't take any Strong Action Task through the Monetory Policy.

Let's Watch the Tussle and let's see Who Win.

Due to uncertainty we continue to avoid the market, General Investor should avoid BFI especially if they plan to Buy if any till the cloud is Clear.

Happy Investment !!

Banks BalanceSheet Gonna Deplete This Time
Due To Provisioning The Profits Have Dipped Drastically
Time Will Tell The Rest

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA......

If people don't take benefit of the deposit rate, they are dumb. If you don't time your exit right, you get fucked in NEPSE. Plus, given the global markets slowdown, Nepse is not immune. Most of the listings on NEPSE are not that exciting to begin with. The only safe place/time to invest in NEPSE is when it is at 1100 for common investors.
For my selfish reason, I welcome 1100.

BerkShire Hathaway
Few Insurance Companies/ mutual funds / individuals were buying since since last week with few arabs on disposal
All deeply in capital market knows this
So probably its a pre-determined hike and does not have inherent strength

Monetary Policy
All are desperately waiting for Monetary Policy
Some amendment in stock policy is certain
But it is also certain that Monetary policy will be tighter

NEPSE
Better to exit at oppurtunities

........baki ishwor ko leela....

Mafias know everything in advance what's gonna happen in few days.

Apparently they know that some positive news is coming in the monitory policy and/or liquidity is going to improve, that might be the reason why there is buying pressure without any official news in the market.

यस अघिका बुल र वियरमा पनि बजार अघिल्लाे बुलकाे उच्च विन्दु भन्दा केही तल बसेकाे थियाे । जस्तै बजार १८८१ पछि फर्केर त्यस अघिकाे उच्च विन्दु ११७५ भन्दा केही तल बसेकाे थियाे त्यस्तै गरी अहिलेकाे बजार पनि १७।१८ सय भन्दा तल जाने देखिदैन । तरलताकाे अवस्था ठीक नभएसम्म धेरै माथि पनि जाने देखिदैन । लगानीकर्ताकाे पैसा उठ्न लामाे समय लाग्न सक्ने देखियाे, Holding cost बढ्ने भयाे ।

Current Swing
This swing was brought by some institutional investors and retail investors.

Monetary Policy
As said earlier, monetary policy gonna be tight

NEPSE
To slide down

......Baki ishwor ko leela....

2020 May
Govt Requests World Bank To Invest In Upper Arun (1061 MW)

2022 June
After 2 Years World Bank Accepts The Proposal & Intends To Invest Rs 90 Billion In The Project

Largest hydroPower
This will be largest hydropower that will go financial closure soon
News Will Come Soon

WILL HOT MONEY FLOW TO NEPAL
With Cement Pending Exports & Hydros In Export Zone
Global Hot Money Coming To Nepal Would Be Great

NEPSE
Yesterday was an opportunity to exit

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

Decision To Fully Empty The Short Term Trading Portfolio After 1 Month Of Investment Seemed To Be Correct
Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:00 pm
1- I Stop Lossed My Short Term Portfolio
2- I Accepted The Short Term Lossess Made

THE BIG PLAYERS
1. Some Big Players still have large amount of loan
2. I cannot name them due to privacy issues

THE BANK
1. Bank are converting SHARE LOAN to TERM LOAN on the same collateral of shares
2. This has provided some relief to the some of the big players who have portfolios
3. I cannot say the process, ask your banks

THE MONETARY POLICY
1. Some amendments in SHARE LOAN POLICY
2. Tighter Monetary Policy

NEPSE - THE FUTURE
1. 2022 is gloomy
2. NEPSE to roll down more deep

.......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

Crude Oil Price
1. As reiterated earlier, crude oil prices rises again, NOC increases price of petrol to Rs 199
2. This will not have major impact on inflation here as we import inflation from india
3. Certainly will create strain on foreign exchange reserves & disposable savings of Nepalese residents
4. NRB got one more reason to bring tighter monetary policy

The Unseen Side
1. As major countries hike their interest rates, the economy changed itself to lower gears
2. The crude oil prices have very less space for further hike and prolly will tumble down in coming days on recession fears

......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

Jun 05, 2022, 7:44 am - Said On This Thread
MONETARY POLICY
Monetary Policy Can be a tight one.

Jun 17, 2022, 9:55 am
अर्थतन्त्रको माग : कसिलो मौद्रिक नीति
https://www.onlinekhabar.com/2022/06/1143721


As presumed the economy will face tight situations and It seems monetary policy will be a tighter one.

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

1: I see treasury collection as fu to 1
2: zzzz I dont know, NRB should be the boss of expansion from now on not demand and supply. And I think compulsory loan says the other wise.
3: As if NRB has anything to do with inflation control. Increasing interest will not force borrower to increase price?
4: The whole world is speculative but you want bank to be non speculative. Even you wife marries you speculating you are not hijada.
5: zzz I dont know, covid measures from NRB seem like over greening to me.

Yesterdays CEO level Interaction of NRB was very crucial
1 - NRB is strict with regard to lending
2 - NRB is strict with regard to credit over expansion
3 - NRB seems to uphold contractionary monetary policy to combat inflation
4 - NRB is harsh to all speculative investments
5 - NRB is harsh to all overgreening


Market To Slide Down More
1- It seems market will bleed more

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

USA
Fed Reserve Increasing Interest Rates in Upcoming Wednesday Meeting

CHINA
Bank Run Happening In China
People In Long Lines In Anger To Their Banks Waiting To Withdraw All Cash
China not raising interest rate to heal the slowdown in the economy

RUSSIA
High Interest rates and crumbling economy

FINANCIAL MARKETS
Crypto Blood bath
NYSE in The Same Line

NEPAL
Nepal Facing blows from Surging Oil Prices, Food Prices as its foreign reserves are depleting massively
Nepal needs a tighter monetary policy, speculation in real estate needs to deccelerate,
Gloomy days looms ahead

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

Food Crisis
During the Irish potato famine, the British infamously continued exporting grain from Ireland to England while millions of Irish starved to death. Similarly during the Russia Ukraine War, Russia Will take all of the wheat to its inland stores as its own wheat production has declined and will not care about the world.

War
Neither Side strong enough to win the war. Neither weak enough to lose the war. Seems war will continue.

Fuel
Oil prices rose more than $2 in early trade on Monday after Saudi Arabia raised prices sharply for its crude sales in July, an indicator of how tight supply is even after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate its output increases over the next two months.

Inflation
As CPI rises almost in all countries, the inflation also soars. All triggered by sudden increase in demand for goods after economies emerged out from pandemics and money began to flow in the market. Also caused by russia-ukraine war which is pushing oils prices up.

Government
In as much as governments really can't change the oil price, central bankers can't suddenly change the price of wheat and other commodities.

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Western politicians and the media are beginning to push Ukraine to end the war with a result that is not beneficial for Ukraine, but Zelenskyy assured that he is not holding such talks with anyone.

Western economy crashing ....... war may end within next 100 days.

Putin supplying wheat, fertilizer.

BASIC FUNDAMENTALS

NEPAL TO GET OIL AT INTERNATIONAL PRICE & NOT AT RUSSIA DISCOUNTED PRICE
1- On Research, came to know that, Nepal Oil Corporation had Agreement With Indian Oil Corporation, Buys Oil In International Price. This was done to avoid India speculate. But Now When Russia gives India oil at deep discounts while International Crude Oil Prices Rockets, Nepal will likely feel the pain.

FISCAL POLICY
1- A Budget That Cannot Be Accomplished In Current National & International Framework.

MONETARY POLICY
1- Our Foreign Reserves already seems will deplete faster with Rising Price of Crude Oil & Rising Price of Foods As Global Disruption Of Food Chain Continues. Interest Rate Seems Will Go Up For The Sake of Inventory Adjustment (Cut Out All Non-Essential Items) As We Cannot Afford To Loose Foreign Reserves. Monetary Policy Can be a tight one.

GOOD THING
1- Steel prices, which have been on a uptrend & sidelines for the past two years, are finally set to correct on weak seasonality, and may trade at around Rs 60,000/tonne by the end of the current fiscal year, down from the Rs 76,000/tonne peak. This is certainly good thing for hydros under construction. Oil Prices Surge will be offset by steel price drops.

BAD THING
1- FAO's Food Price Index has been rose to 22% in past 1 month. The Thing is There is No Food Shortage as of until now, it is only food crisis (soaring prices due to increase in price of wheat & fuels). This can punch us hardly too in the near future, if ongoing war continues.

NEPSE
1- People are losing money in the all the financial markets all around the world. All the inter-webs of complex situations indicates Food Crisis, Heavier Inflation, Less Savings. All this can have severe impact on Markets. This time Bear Can Be Very Very Painful if the current situation escalates. Hope things wont escalate.


...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

SHARE03
1- I Stop Lossed My Short Term Portfolio
2- I Accepted The Short Term Lossess Made

FUTURE
1- Liquidity will tighten further
2- Russia-Ukraine War can make things ugly for BOP
3- 4/12 will not be relaxed & even if it did - it will be trivial amendment making no significant difference

INFERENCE
1.Market has gone bearish and it will be difficult to catch the previous pace
2. Uncertainty is for unknown time frame

........BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

Namaste sir,
Are you still in hold position or sell on swing?
Regards
Share03

FACT 01
Nepalese inflation is driven by Indian inflation rather those other domestic factors such as real economic activity or money supply in the long run.

FACT 02
There is evidence that stock prices are positively and significantly related to money supply. This finding is similar to positive relationship examined by Shrestha and Subedi (2014) for Nepal; Mukherjee and Naka (1995) for Japan;
Naka, Mukherjee and Tufte (1999) for India; Mayasami, Howe and Hamzah (2004) for Singapore, Ratnapakorn and Sharma (2007) for US.

FACT 03
But overall, the presence of cointegration and causality suggests that Nepalese stock market is not efficient in both the short run and the long run.

CONCLUSION
The policy of 4/12 has significantly blocked the money supply to stock market and it has caused speedy crash like never seen before. The sole culprit is NRB for such pervert decision. And market will continue to shake until the revision is done. Other Factors except money supply doesnt hold much strength.

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....