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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 67
deepak is as always aalu analyst..torpelal...

every time u sell, when u buy??

do u think all the investors fool like u?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Petrol 120/ ltr. Diesel Kerosine 103/ltr.

OLI FROM OLITICS TO OILTICS ???

मूल्य समायोजन पछि पनि निगमलाई पेट्रोलमा प्रतिलिटर ७.३९ रुपैयाँ, डिजलमा प्रति लिटर १.९४ रुपैयाँ घाटा छ । ग्याँसमा प्रतिसिलिन्डर ४१८.४७ रुपैयाँ घाटा रहेको निगमले जनाएको छ

Oil NIGAM is just a Marketing Arm and is just like a Pure Brokerage/ trader Business, but still in Loss.

What a crap. Loot Kanxa Loot 🤣🤣
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 22
Thank you Deepak jee. I believe some went for housing, volume indicates no new money inflow in the market except the stock dealer.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
The Market Continued to move up and has managed to close above 2600+ mark has given us a good Oppurtnity to Book the Profit. We had almost sold off 7.5% out cash Deployment out of 10% Cash Deployment which were deployed few weeks ago.

Just holding 2.5% worth of Cash Deployment for those shares which are Potential Right Issue Candidate.

Though we Don't like much the Right issue word but the Market like that Word, So looking at the Flavour of Market we are holding those Company which are likely to Declare right issue.

But at the current junction we don't hold any stock which has already declared right share infact has already booked Profit in those shares.

We Buy on Rumours and Sell on Facts. 😊

At the Current Juncture we are not seeing where the Nepse goes but focusing on Individual Stocks with Right Shares storey, 2.5% Cash deployment in Right share Candidate still holding and will deploy further 2.5% of Cash Today in Upcoming Right Candidates followed by companies in Sideways Direction to Minor fall in Price since last few days.


Happy Investment.
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:39 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 286
दिपक जीले April fool मनाउनु भए जस्ताे छ CGH र Market एउटै Trend भनेर ।
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1259
@Deepak mm
"Let's see what Happens"

Minimal fall is possible due to Q end effect. Nothing significant happens till BFI start to publish there 3rd Q Report.
Market direction will be confirmed only after evalution of BALANCE SHEET.

JAY HOS
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Today is April 01 2021 (April Fool Day)

The Move of the Market is also looking very Tricky in Nature.

Either the Market will make Bear the Fool or will make Bull the Fool.

The stage is set for Either Big break Out or a BIG Break Down or Others.

CGH ( Chandragiri Hills) will set the mood of the Market.

If CGH closes in +Ve Note then we make an assumptions the Market is Bullish.

If CGH closes in - Ve Note then we make assumptions market market is Neutral with Sideways Direction with maximum bottom level Pegged @ 2352/-

If CGH hits UC/UC (UPPER CIRCUIT / ULTO CIRCUIT) then Strong Breakout / Strong Breakdown on Card.

Let's see what Happens

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
As with the Published List of Stocks by The Nagrik Stock Dealer, So will avoid Stocks included in the List for Trading Prospective / Short term Trade.

Was Going through the Chart Pattern and the Paid Up Capital Structure of Few Developement Banks and found 3 Developement Banks are the Most Potential Cornering Stocks.

If these Stocks are Cornered by Some Players or Institution or Group then these could turn to be the biggest Wealth Creater in %% terms.

Througly Tracking at the Moment, Will jump once the Activity developes in these Shares.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Dec 2020
Posts: 22
Upper Tamakoshi will not be able to issue right shares as per existing SEBON guidelines for hydropower companies.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Today on the Ocassion of Jai Ganesh Day (Tuesday) there will be lot's of Trader Activity in 5 Specific Stocks due to Rumours about Potential Right Issue on the Card for these company which are :-

1. AIL (Ajod Insurance)

2. EDBL (Excel Devlopement Bank)

3. GRDBL (Green Devlopement Bank)

4. KRBL (Karnali Devlopement Bank)

5. UPPER (Upper Tamakoshi)

Note : At the moment these are just Market Rumours only, We don't know Whether Right is Likely or Not.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
I was going through the Chart Pattern of Multiple Finance Companies and the Chart Pattern looks some what similar like the Chart Pattern seen in the Hydropower Sector a Year Ago before a BIG Boom started in the Hydropower Sector.

The Hydropower Boom was started by Hydropower Twin AHPC (ARUN VALLEY) and AKPL (ARUN KABELI)

Similar way we are seeing the Finance twin CFCL (Central Finance) and RLFL (Reliance Finance) with same Pattern or Trade Setup.

At that time AHPC was trading between 95-105 range and at current context CFCL is trading at 195-205 Range at the moment.

At that time AKPL was trading at 125-135 Range and RLFL is trading 225-235 Range at the moment.

In both the context similar pattern but Price gap of 100 Rs.

At that Point of time nobody has imagined that big money will be made via AHPC AND AKPL But we have visulaized atleast 50% Return but Market gave 200% RETURN.

At the Current Context none has imagined that the big money will be made in CFCL & RLFL, BUT in Similar way we are Visuliazing atleast 50% Return in CFCL and RLFL But Don't know whether what kind of Return the market is going to Reward to CFCL AND RLFL.

Finger Crossed !!

Disclosure : We have Long Position in both CFCL & RLFL the similar way We had Long Position in AHPC and AKPL in the Past. As we have Long in Both, So there could be a Human Tendency that we could be Bias with our Analysis. Kindly do Proper Research and take Adequate Advisory before making such Investment Decesion.


Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Mar 24, 2021 7:59 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
@Dubosi7 What you said is Correct !!

BUT We need to adjust the Upper Tamakoshi + other Hydro Power & Nifra Factor adjustment in that because of their Weightage on the INDEX.

So We can say that Dark Cloud Cover is overshadowed by Nifra and Upper factor.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1259
Deepak ji , if we see a PURE BEARISH CANDLE in todays market, then only DARK CLOUD COVER as you said can be confirmed. Otherwise its just a neutral pattern at minor resistance zone.
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:18 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 10
It has been very insightful.

thank you very much for the information
_______________
कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
The NEPSE has Formed Dark Cloud Cover Pattern on Daily Candle Stick Chart !!

Apart from that the Gap seen before forming the Dark Cloud Pattern need to be filled up by the NEPSE.

The Image Pattern is Posted on my FB Wall.

As Said Last time if there is further Upmove by Sunday/Monday then we will Deploy Further 7.5% Cash in the Market on Jai Ganesh Day (Tuesday), As there was no further upmove thus We won't be Deploying any Further Cash in the Market. But we have Deployed 2.5 % additinal Cash in the Market on Selective Stocks Yesterday !!

So Net Net 5%+2.5%+2.5% = 10% of our Cash is alreday Deployed in Market in Stock Specific Counters & 90% We are still sitting on Cash.

Haappy Investment !!


Note : Yesterday due to Technical Problem on SS Forum Portal The analysis could not be Posted on SSForum Portal but has Posted the same on My Face book Wall with ID Named deepak.marketmaker@gmail.com.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
We have been Holding the shares worth 5% of our Cash Deployed which were basically Intraday Technical Sell off followed by intraday cover up of sold position of the last week.

Apart from that we had deployed 2.5% cash on Sunday and are holding those Position also.

Net Net 7.5% Cash Deployment in Stocks and now all are in MTM profit at the moment.

Kept Aside 2.5% of our Cash to Buy further stocks which we already hold if we see any Dip in its Price on Sunday or Monday.

If there is No Dip in its Prices on Sunday and Monday then will Deploy additional 7.5% further Cash on Jai Ganesh Day (Tuesday).

Let's see whether it's 2.5% Cash Deployment or 7.5% Cash Deployment in the coming Week.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1259
इन्याेरेन्सबाट भाग्ने होइन रमेश जी , घटे पछी चौका हान्ने भनेको जस्तो लाग्छ दीपक जी ले , कसोहो ? :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 286
ननलाइफ इन्स्याेरेन्सकाे ५ कराेडमात्र घट्ने हाे ठूलाे कुराे हाेइन । साना र नयाँ ननलाइफ इन्याेरेन्समा असर देखिएला । रिइन्स्याेरेन्सकाे १ अर्व घट्छ अलि ठूलाे असर देखिएला । इन्याेरेन्सबाट भाग्नुपर्ने अवस्था हाेला जस्ताे लाग्दैन ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
In Today's Context Still 80% of the Corona Claim are not yet Settled by the Non life Insurance Companies + Re Insurance Company.

As the Major chunk of claim are not yet settled so the Probable losses to be booked for Such Claim are yet not booked in their Books of A/c.

Whether Q3 or Q4 when the losses will be booked.

Looks like some Individuals and Groups are going to file the Petition against the Non Life Insurance Companies thus viz viz RE-insurance Company.

Once the Matter Goes to Court then there could be an unseen or an un imagined SCENERIOS where the Insurance Companies licenses could be made void if they are unable to settle the claims, further harsh action could be the Bankruptcy SCENERIOS.

Better to Avoid such Sector even if Nepse sees an Uptick in Index.

Stick to Defensive Stocks.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Yesterday After a Gap UP Opening NEPSE once again came closer to its Support Level of 2385/- till 2390.59/- and Moved Up Sharply 2430.09 and again Corrected by 18 Points but manged to Closed near the Higher Point of Day indicates the upmove to Continue further from the Current Level.

Now the immidiate Next Strong Resistance for NEPSE is pegged @ 2465/-, NEPSE need to Break the 2465/- Mark and should manage to close above 2465/- for Further Upmove to Continue.

Some People questioned me in my Inbox Why are you have a Bullish View on Devlopement Banks & Finance Companies but you has a Bearish View on A Class Commercial Banks.

Over the Recent Months Many Major FCY (Foreign Currency) like US Dollar , Japanes Yen, European Union Euro has Gone Weak or has fallen against the Nepalese Rupees which is likey to Hit the Margin of many A Class Commercial Banks in their Treasury Income follwed by Revaluation Reserve Losses. A Treasury is one the major Chunk of Income for the A Class Commercial Banks.

The Banks which has major Exposure in FCY (Foreign Currency) will take a Big Hit in their Incomes & Revaluation Reserve Losses such as NIB,NABIL,HBL,SCB,PRVU, GBIME, etc. etc.

Devlopement Banks have limited Exposure in FCY (Foreign Currency) and Finance Company has Negligible Exposure in FCY (Foreign Currency)

Amont the BFI we are Most Bullish in Finance Companies :-

We have a Buy Call on Few Finance Companies :-

1. BUY CFCL (Central Finance) for Target of 356/-
2. BUY GFCL (Goodwill Finance) For Target of 295/-
3. BUY GMFIL (Guheshwori Merchant) For Target of 247/-
4. BUY GUFL (Gurkhas Finance ) for Target of 565/-
5. BUY ICFC (ICFC Finance ) for Target of 356/-
6. BUY JFL (Janaki Finance) for Target of 308/-
7. BUY MFIL (Manjushree Finance) for Target of 565/-
8. BUY PFL (Pokhra Finance) for the Target of 356/-
9. BUY RLFL (Reliance Finance) for the Target of of 347/-
10. BUY SIFC (Shree Investment & Finance) for the Target of 325/-
11. BUY UFL ( United Finance) for the Target of 465/-

Apart from these we have Bearish view / Sell Call on Left Out Finance Companies such as BFC (Best Finance), MPFL (Multi Purpose) NFS (Nepal Finance) , PROFL (Progressive Finance) & SFCL (Samriddhi Finance ) for the Price Target of 85-110/-

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:51 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 10
Thanks for the update. Waiting for the forecast.
_______________
कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
NEPSE Continue to hold the Support Level @ 2385/- on Closing Basis.

Though has broken the Support Level on Intrday Basis Twice in 2 trading Session !!

6 (SIX) Sectros Still looks Bearish on Chart Which are :-

1. Life Insurance
2. Manufacturing & Processing
3. Non Life Insurance
4. Micro Finance
5. Other (NTC)
6. A Class Commercial Bank

These 6 Sector are in Bearish Trend that dosent mean that they will Continue to Fall on Daily Basis.
Some Technical Bounce Back is imminenet.

As NEPSE has taken Support near 2385/- Now onwards the Quantam of Fall won't be that Sharp in Nature till we break 2352/- but will be Slow and Steady in Nature Like a Sweet Poision.

But Even in this Market we are Bullish on 3 Sectros, which are :-

1. Devlopement Banks
2. Finance Companies
3. Hydro Power

On Thursday ( 5 Chaitra 2077) will be Updating Individual Stock Specific Buy & Sell Calls on Specific Companies with the Potential Target Price Forcasting.

Happy Investment !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
CGH ( Chandragiri Hills) is a Pure Greed Trap !!

Don't Try to Fish it !!

If you are caught on the Wrong Foot or Price then it has a tendency to give you 70% Negative Return.

I Repeat 70% Negative Return !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
The Current Support for the NEPSE is Pegged @ 2385/- though on Intraday basis it broke the Support Level but it manged to Close above its Support Level of 2385/-

Jai Ganesh Day (Tuesday) is an important Day for the Market, Whether the Market will Defend its Support Level or Not ??

By 12:30 Noon if market manages to trade above 2385/- Level then its time to Deploy Fresh Cash in the Market but if it fails to sustain above 2385/- then Actual Panic Sell Could Emerge in the Market !!

A Break Below 2352/- on Closing Basis will Open an Argument for the Bear Market !!


If we Enter the Bear Market then 85% of the Stock are likely to under Perform but only 15% Stocks will Outperform in the Market !!

Finger Crossed !! Let see what is the Destiny of the Market !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Yesterday we witnessed a Technical direction based trades by many Investors.

Technical weak stocks were sold and Technically Strong stocks were bought !!


Apart from that we also witness selling by Weaker Hands of the market as part of the Accounting settlement with the Brokers.

As the Part of the Stragety we also sold 80% of our Portfolio worth 5% of our Cash Deployment but later covered those 80% which resulted our Average cost of Aqusition reduction by 1.25%.

Apart from that we also deployed additional 2.5% of our cash in the Market in 3 sectors.

Devlopement Bank, Finance and Hydropower.

Nifra is in our watch list and we are awaiting for 20 Billion Turnover to get over in Nifra. Then will take a Call whether to Add Nifra or Not in our Portfolio.

2385/- to act as Strong Support for Nepse, the +Ve aspect is Nepse managed to close above 2400 Physiological mark which is sign a big Relief for the BULLS.

The Panic Sell will emerge once Nepse closes below 2385/- on closing basis, As of now it is just a Accounting Settlement based Sell off followed by Technical Sell off only.

Happy Investment !!

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