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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
Yesterday NEPSE witness the Strong volumes with 3.13 Arab Turnover.

Among the Sector Hydropower, Life Insurance & Micro Finance still has very strong room for the Correction.

Micro Finance INDEX still has a Strong room for Correction of 8.5% from the Yesterday Close Level.

Life Insurance INDEX still has a room for Correction of 14.1% from the Yesterday Close Level.

Hydro Power INDEX still has a room for Correction of 15% from Yesterday Close Level.

Banking Stocks to Witness Selective Buying Interest, We have a Buy Call rating on 3 Banks which are :-

1. NCCB (NCC Bank) 2. CBL (Civil Bank) & 3. Sunrise Bank (SRBL)

We have a BUY Call on Overall Finance Sector where we have assigned an aggressive Buy++ Call in 1 particular Finance Company that is UFL (United Finance Ltd) for the Target of 429/- in short Term with No Stop-loss Level.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
There is a saying that "There cannot a Smoke with a Fire".

This Proverb is well implied on United Finance Ltd. (UFL)

As rumors' are there is the Market about Possible Merger with Nabil Bank.

Based on the Rumor to be believed we have Put a Strong BUY Call on UFL.


BUY UFL for the Target of 429/- without Stop-loss.

Disclaimer : This is a Pure Speculative Target Only. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
Good Morning !!

Looking at the Weekly Chart Pattern The Overall Market is showing the Early Sign of Correction !!

I Foresee Overall NEPSE to Correct by 5-6% from the Current Level.

3 Sectors are Likely to See the Deeper Correction and among 3 Sectors 2 sectors if breaches its Correction Level could enter the Bear Territory.

1. Non- life Index Likely to correct by approx. 4.6% from the Current Level.

2. Micro Finance INDEX to Correct by approx. 8.8% from the current Level.

3. Life Insurance INDEX to correct by approx. 15% from the Current Level.

4. Banking Index to correct by approx. 1.1% only from the Current Level.

5. Finance Sector to Correct by approx. 4% from the Current Level.

6. Development Bank to Correct by approx. 5.8% from the Current Level.

7. Trading Index to Correct by approx. 8.6%, though Trading INDEX is Not a comparable as 1 stock alone has above 85% weightage on the Index. :D

8. The Good Run Up Hydro to Correct by approx. 16% from the Current Level.

The 2 Sectors which worries me a lot is Micro Finance & Life Insurance, if these 2 Sectors breaches its Correction Level then these 2 Sectors will enter the Bear Market, I Personally feel these 2 sectors stocks should be given a Last Golden Hand shake from the Portfolio.

Disclaimer : The Above analysis is for STUDY Purpose Only, one should consult their advisor or an Expert before making an financial Decision.

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
Yesterday Market took the immidiate support to the level near 1538 at 1535.22 and Bounced back with clousere in +Ve Teritorry, thus closing @ 1555.22

As the Nepse 2 Sub Index, Hydro Power and Finance which has given Strong Bullish Break in the Past days will continue to remain in the lime light with lots of Traders Activity.

The Nepse will continue to remain in Range Bound to Sideways Direction in coming days too with +Ve Bias.

BUT there will be Strong Momentum in HYDRO Power and Finance Sector in coming days trading session too, these 2 Sectors will likely to Dominate the Market in coming days too.

As we are still sitting on 90% Cash, Yesterday was our Second Day of Dashian Shopping in Nepse, Yesterday also we bought some stocks in the Market but it was more of a Stock Specific Purchase in wuhi Hydro and Finance sector.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:32 am. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 556
deepak ji and his jargons :P :P :P :P
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
Yesterday we witness continuous fall in the Nepse where the Bear Dominated the Market and Bull shy Away to Buy in the market.

The Immidiet support for the market is pegged @1538, which need to be watched in the today's trading session.

A break below 1538 level on Closing basis, then the market will heads towards to level near 1505-08 level. Where 1505-08 will remain the Strong Support level for the market.

As as we sitting on the Cash at the current moment and Yesterday we did some Dashian Shopping in Finance Sector only. BUT were Buying at our Own Price Tag rather then their Price Tag😊😊. AS WE ARE BULLISH ON THE FINANCE SECTOR BUT ARE BUYING SLOW AND STEADY LOOKING AT THE MARKET.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 683
Finance subindex dipped by -1.25% yesterday and -1.67% today.
Figure speaks itself.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
After being the Net Net Seller for the Last Continuous five (5) days from Yesterday onwards we turned into Net Buyers.

But Currently we are Buying only into Finance Companies only, as we Foresee Strong Growth Opportunities, Followed by attractive valuations & Strong room for Capital Appreciation, Following are the List of our 10 Bullish Bets Finance Companies in the Current Market.

1. Goodwill Finance (GFCL)
2. United Finance (UFL)
3. Janaki Finance (JFL)
4. Pokhra Finance (PFL)
5. Guheshwori Merchant Banking & Finance (GMFIL)
6. ICFC Finance (ICFC)
7. Manjushree Finance (MFIL)
8. Reliance Finance (RLFL)
9. Shree Investment & Finance (SIFC)
10.Central Finance (CFCL)

Irrespective of Whichever direction the NEPSE goes we are building up Long Position in these 10 Stocks.

Disclaimer :- The Above statement is for Study Purpose only, it should NOT be consider as an Investment Decision, Kindly do Proper Research work before making any Investment Decision.

Happy Investment !! :D :D
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:58 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4928
You have never been useful to me.

You can start by telling me what would be the breaking point for dev bank and its first, second and third target.


Just like finance, dev banks are very cheap compared to income and its supply is very limited but supply is more than finance and easily increase price with a few billion.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
Yesterday we Exited another 11% of our Portfolio from Nepse with just mere 9% Holding now at Current Level.

Yesterday we reviewed the Finance Sector and built up Long Position in Finance Stocks but managed to Deploy only 00.20% As you all know we were need to Sit in Q on mercy of some Seller to match our Bids 😊

Banking Index still has a Strong Resistance @ 1283 level, until or unless it don't break that Level and continue to remain above 1283 mark for 2 consecutive trading days doesn't convince us to buy on Banking Stocks.

Finance Sector is one Sector which has given a Strong Bullish Break Out Yesterday. Its not only about Bullish Break Out but along with Bullish Break Out it has also entered an Un-charted Zone.

If anything enter an un-charted Teritorry Zone then "Kune Mai ka Laal" TA or Expert also can't Pedict its Resistance Level, using any available Tool. If some one says so then he is simply Lieing.

We can Only Guess may be this or that could be the Level. 😊

So the Conlusion is Finance INDEX will go to which level I am also Clueless, Fundamentally Still very Cheap based on PE Multiple and Technically What you all know that by Now.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:52 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 248
deepak_mmजी,


:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: अति राम्रो,

धन्यवाद l
Member
Registered: Apr 2018
Posts: 29
Me
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 77
WHO STILL BELIEVES AND READS THE BULLSHIT OF DEEPAK_MM??
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
In Last 4 Trading session from Monday to Thursday we have been in Continues Profit Booking Mood.

In Last 4 trading days we emptied our Holdings by 80% as Our Projected Profit Figure was easily achieved due to Euphoria in the Market.

We sold off across multiple sectors even those Scarp stocks too :mrgreen: :mrgreen: which were Fundamentally weak and are Generally never bought by us :mrgreen: :mrgreen: but were bought as it was looking Technically strong.

Our Bets on those Scraps stocks also gave us a good Return :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

As we sold off 80% that doesn't mean that we are Advocating that Market will Fall or it has to Fall. The Only thing is we have Downgraded Our NEPSE Target of 1800+ Before Dashain to 1552/- which is achieved and in-fact 20 Points higher then our given Target on the Closing Basis.

Currently we Hold only 4 Hydro Power, 4 Non life Insurance, 2 Life Insurance and Last but not the Least 1 Finance Company which was added on Last trading session Only.

Among the 4 Hydro we will SELL OFF 2 out of 4 companies & in Non Life Insurance 2 out 4 and 2 out of 2 or 100% in Life Insurance in coming week trading session and no sell off in Recently added 1 Finance Company where we just added mere 5K kitta only. :P :P

We are reviewing the Finance Sector as we are currently sitting on 80% Cash and are Planning to Deploy 11% Cash in the Finance Sector.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 248
deepak_mm तपाइको कुराबाट अलि confusion बढेर आयो त,

यसमा पक्कै २ वटा कारण हुनुपर्छ,

१) आफ्ना(तपाइको) विचार follow गरेर बजारमा किन बेच गर्नेहरुलाई सहि मार्ग निर्देशन गर्न

वा

२) बढेको बजारमा आफ्नो stock बेची सकेकाले, मार्केट घटाएर फेरी खरिद गर्न,

के गर्ने के गर्ने ?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
Yesterday Nepse Closed in the +ve territory witha gain of 5.36 Points thus closing @ 1541.30/-

Despite Closing on +ve Territory, it is not convincing us to ADD Stocks in our Portfolio, We have been continuously Booking Profit since Last 3 Days in the Market.

Overall We are Selling in the Market as Multiple factors suggest us there will be a strong correction in the Market.

The Cancellation 3800 trades has further dampen our Bullish Mode in the Market.

Our Previous Target of NEPSE of 1800+ Before Dashian is now finally Withdrawn looking at the Multiple Factors, The Target is Revised @ 1552/- which has been already Hit by the Market.

Most of the Stocks we are Exiting expect 11 Stocks which is for our Long term Prospective.

The Softer Interest Rate Party likely to fizzle out soon as NABIL BANK one the Leading Bank of NEPAL has come up with 9% Interest Rate on Fixed Deposits, so the Other Banks are Likely to Join the game with higher Interest Rates then NABIL.

Now the NEPSE will be in the control of the Bears which will thrash the Market to 1508 Level for Sure.

Now we Need to be watch whether Bulls are able to Defend 1508 Level or Not ??

Who already booked Profit Good, who haven't then Profit Booking is advised and take the Cash Out of Table and Enjoy the Dashian.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:23 am. »
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 17
Khatiwada's power is already very diminished. If people like Bishnu Paudel or Pradip Gyawali are appointed in finance ministry, it is difficult to see how they will obey Khatiwada.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
After Hitting 1552/- Level the NEPSE has started the Correction and this Corrective Phase could extend till 1508/-.

We are witnessing the reduction in the Turnover which will discourage Bulls to Buy Further at the Current Level and will Encourage Bears to Press Sell Button.

Now the Bear has got the Technical Advantage on the Daily Technical Charts.

Let see How the Market Reacts to the appointment of Former Finance Minister Dr. Y. Khatiwada as Vishesh Adviser to the Prime Minister, where Market Gossips says Indirectly Dr. Khatiwada will be having all Decision making Power of Finance Ministry but only in the documents his Signature will be Missing. :D :D

As the Market reduces the Brokerage Houses will also slash the Limit Exposure given to its clients which will further Dampen the Mood.

Bhadra 25 & 28 transaction on NEPSE whose exact status of Clearing & Settlement yet not known.

Today in the early morning i.e "Bhrama Murata" session, we felt the Shock Waves of the Earth Quake, Hope there is no Earth Quake in NEPSE too when it opens.

If anything like Earth Quake kind of scenario happens in NEPSE today, it would be just Mere Coincidence Only.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
As the NEPSE has achieved our First Target of 1552/- , thus Partial Profit Booking was advised Yesterday in Sectors which has witnessed a good Run UP.

Investors are advised not to take FRESH Long Position for the time being as CDS has freeze all clearing and Settlement for All transaction Executed on Bhadra 25 and all transaction executed till 2 PM on Bhadra 28.

Is these because of Technical Issue or Something else ?? till the cloud of uncertainty is not clear Fresh Long Position (BUY) is not at all Advised.

Reliance Life Insurance (RLI) has been in continues Upper Circuit since its Listing, The Today Upper Circuit rate of (546) should be used as a good Exit Opportunity from the Retail Investors, But Still it trades in thin Volume then the Next Day Circuit Level or Round Figure Level of (600) should used for sure.

I Hope CDS issue is mere related to Technical Issue Only, If it is something else then we would be Selling Heavily in the Market as if there is No Tomorrow for us, Even Loss are to be Booked in our Position we won't mind Booking Loss too.

And the NEPSE BUY Target of 1800+ before Dashian will be downgraded to SELL for Target of 1380 before Dashian.

Happy Investment !! :) :)
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:32 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
NEPSE has achieved Short term Target (1) of 1552/-

Partial Profit Booking is Advised !!

Happy Investing !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
The NEPSE continue to Form Higher Top & Higher Bottom Pattern with a Strong Bullish Pattern along with Strong Turnover of 3.38 Arab despite technical issues on TMS.

The Lead is taken by Non-Life Insurance and thus by Hydro Power.

Every Profit Booking Procedure which take place in Non Life Insurance is easily absorbed by HNI & PCG which indicates that the Bulls are here to stay for the Longer Period in Non Life Insurance.

Yesterday Finally the Hydro Power Index gave the Bullish Break out closing with 3.64% gain on the INDEX thus closing @ 1143.53. Today the Hydro Power Index movement just need to confirm the bullish Break Out. In order to confirm the Bullish Break out it need to stay Above 1126/- which is 17.53 Points below its Yesterday Close Level.

Mr. Market already knows something which General Public Don't Know which is the Beauty of the Market.

My Bullish Bets continue to remain in Non Life Insurance & Hydro Power Sector.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:42 am. »
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 17
hydroko barema one insightful article.

https://ekantipur.com/opinion/2020/09/13/160000571168747704.html
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 56
HNI & PCG = AINT HERE FOR LONG RANGE GAME

ENJOY THE MUSICAL CHAIR


what would be the best strategy then sir? should we enjoy on the musical chair rather being prudent investor for long time?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 467
NEPSE is certain to rise

& STOCK MARKET was never about BUYING

& STOCK MARKET is always about the SELLING AT THE RIGHT TIME

HNI & PCG = AINT HERE FOR LONG RANGE GAME

ENJOY THE MUSICAL CHAIR

MORE LEVERAGED = MORE THRILLING = MORE PROFIT = MORE LETHAL = I LIKE IT

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1533
NEPSE continue to Form Higher Top and higher Bottom with Bullish Bias and every Sell off by Retail Investor is being bought by the HNI (High Net-worth Individual) & (PCG)Private Corporate Group, which simply Indicates the Shares Ownership is changing from the Weak Hands to More Stronger Hands.

Non-Life Insurance Index has Given the Bullish Breakout on Wednesday & and the Break out is also confirmed on Thursday and Non-Life Insurance stocks are among the Favorite Picks among My HNI & PCG Clients.

Hydro-Power INDEX is very close to Bullish Break-out, some factors & Events almost close for a Strong Bullish Break Out for HYDRO-Power INDEX such as :-

1. MCC likely to get Passed with Certain Amendments which itself is a Big- Trigger, Which will Boost Transmission Line Infrastructure & Connectivity, where Wastage of Energy by Producers will be controlled.

2. Independent Energy Producers Corporation of Nepal Lobbying for change in Hydro Power Project Handover tenure from Existing 30 Years to 50 Years.

3. Soft Interest Rate by Banks will start showing improvement in Margin of Hydro Power Companies where Major Chunk of their Income goes as expenses towards Interest re-payment.

4. Many Merger and Acquisition Process under exercise in Hydro Power Sectors, Which will further Un-Lock the Values of the Hydro Companies.

5. Last but Not the Least the Tenure of Mr. Kul Man Ghising, the Executive Director of NEA is expiring on 28 Bhadra 2077, Re- Appointment or New Face taking the charge will further Boost the Market.


So the Final Conclusion is Whatever ever direction the NEPSE goes these 2 Sector will be the Out Performer infact the Star Performer, thus we still continue to have Strong Bullish Bets on these 2 Sectors.

Disclosure : The report is for Study Purpose only and should not be considered as recommendation.


HAPPY INVESTMENT :D :D
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:41 am. »

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