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Reevaluation of GDP growth: will be below 5.5

(yuraj k, single handedly bringing down Nepal's economy).

Next, evaluation will be in 6th month.


पहिलो चौमासिकमा २६ प्रतिशत राजस्व संकलन, भन्सार बढे पनि भ्याट संकलन कमजोर, गैरकर पनि उठेन


यस्तै आयकर तर्फ पनि लक्ष्यअनुसार संकलन भएको छैन| ३८ अर्ब ६५ करोड रुपैयाँ संकलनको लक्ष्य राखिएकोमा ३५ अर्ब ८९ करोड रुपैयाँ अर्थात ९३ प्रतिशत राजस्व संकलन भएको छ|

गत वर्षको पहिलो चार महिनाको तुलनामा यो वर्ष राजस्व संकलन ३० प्रतिशतले बढेको छ|


In this First four month, there was dashain and tihar and Income tax clearance period and still they are able to collect only 26% tax for the year.

It is clear, their target wont be met.

There are two worst clues hidden:
1: They are able to collect only 30% more during first 4 month after tightening tax policy. Next months, it will be even harder since, they have already squeezed Nepalese.

2: Whatever high tax they have been collecting, its cause of previous govts/years hard work. Real down fall will be seen next year. Biddwan yuraj k's work will be seen next year. There could be negative if not, very low increase in tax collection next year.

Conclusion, lateral month, tax collection growth rate will fall significantly. Next year, there will be crisis.


Investors had been waiting for stable govt to invest. Finally they got, but with it, came biddwan yuraj k. Yurak K single handedly preventing economic growth, investment, economic activity.

Is not there any one in commie who understands economy or anyone in Nepal who can see what I am seeing and educate 8 class dr.Oli?

Kaile samma yuraj k nam ko las bokcha oli le????



I warned Oli about yuraj k when he made him FM. We already lost almost 1 year.

Make Prachanda's buhari finance minister and order her to make ME her malik. I will guide her and this govt how to run economy and state.


Yurak K is sati ko sarp. so is 8 class dr.oli.


Yuraj k actions and policies has been against all rule of economics. Could he be indian agent sent to prevent development of Nepal????

Till 2 year ago, my financial position was very good. Today, I am poor. Commie has turned everyone equally poor. Just like, history taught us about commei and socialist. That is why, they are extinct and about to be extinct in small area where they are left. In case of Nepal............ sati ko sarap.

आर्थिक वृद्धिको लक्ष्य भेट्न नसकिने अर्थमन्त्रीको स्वीकारोक्ति


Dont tell me, i did not warn before current fiscal year began. I pointed out exact problem with the honorable biddwan yuraj k who should have engaged in gai palan as profession.

Economics/management is bigger nut for his to crack.

Yo Indian agent le pani des siddhaune bho.

म्यानपावर कम्पनीबीच 'फोर्सफुल मर्जर', 'श्रमबजारलाई १५ म्यानपावर काफि'

Did not he take money from Indian agent Golcha and when he was exposed, he disappeared for years?

In 3/6 month, I could revise GDP growth to close to 0 or negative/recession. I am suspecting, monitory policy could hit economy very hard.

Earlier, I was expecting, fiscal and monitory policies hitting economy hard.



In India, when modi won the election, their share market increased a lot, private sector welcomed. And today, Indian is seeing higher GDP growth.


While in Nepal, as soon as biddwan Yuraj K became finance minister- private sector was disappointed and share market has been crashing even harder. Has any economy in the world prospered while private sector and share market lost confidence???? None.


It takes months even years to find out, how your economy is doing. But there are few early indicators 8 class Oli can watch for Nepali context:
1: BFIs borrowing (bad if not enough borrower.
2: Dashain is near, so dashain spending. Cause of new local bodies, spending may rise outside cities, but in cities ........
3: Confidence of private sector and share market.
4: Import for dashan and tihar, which should have already began.
5: Bfi deposit.
6: Meat consumption (if there is real data).
7:

- Economy of a nation is economy of a nation. GDP growth is GDP growth.

Nepal's normal GDP growth is 6%. If govt do nothing or if govt does not harm, Nepal GDP growth reach around 6%.

GDP or GDP growth means Nepal's GDP or GDP growing under constant conditions. i.e- Nepal GDP or GDP was growing under previous tax rates.

And

Nepal GDP or GDP growth was growing by using capital/bank loan based on past policies.


Now our biddwan dalal gothalo ka santan Yuraj K has Increased TAX RATES and prevented bank loan from going to those sector which were helping GDP or GDP growth.

Cause of his new high tax rate and blocking of capital flow to those sector which were fueling yesterday's GDP or GDP growth will now be affected. Which means, contribution of yesterday's sector to GDP or GDP growth will be down, so will loose employment.

Normal GDP growth- 6% even when govt does nothing- nor harming nor building.

Under Biddwan Yuraj K GDP Growth:

Suppose to be normal growth: 6
Impact of biddwan's budget: -2
Caused by demoralization of private sector from biddwan: -1
Solved Banking crisis : 2
If mega projects are completed in time: 2
Re construction: .5
Monitory Policy: -1
Wasting of time: -.5

Total= 6-2-1+2+2+.5-1-.5= 6% GDP growth

(Revised growth rate after revising banking crisis and monitory policy and wasting of time)

This year's GDP growth- 6%

Next year:
Suppose to be normal growth: 6
Impact of biddwan's budget: -2
Caused by demoralization of private sector from biddwan: -1
Semi solved Banking crisis (if it is semi solved): -1
If mega projects are completed in time: 2
Re construction: .5

Total= 6-2-1-1+2+.5= 4.5% GDP growth

अर्थमन्त्रीले सुनाए ८ प्रतिशत आर्थिक वृद्धिदरका आधा दर्जन आधार

देश लोडसेडिङमुक्त भएपछि औद्योगिक उत्पादन विस्तार हुदै गएको र आगामी वर्ष थप बढ्ने आधारमा यो लक्ष्य निर्धारण गरेको खतिवडाले बताएका छन् ।

पत्रकार सम्मेलनमा अर्थमन्त्री खतिवडाले आगामी वर्ष राष्ट्रिय गौरवका ४५६ मेगावाटको माथिल्लो तामाकोसी र मेलम्ची खानेपानी आयोजना सञ्चालनमा आउने जानकारी दिए । दुई आयोजनाले मूल्य अभिवृद्धि गर्न उनको भनाई छ ।

यस्तै नयाँ ठुला सिमेन्ट र खानी उद्योग सञ्चालनमा आउने भएकाले यी क्षेत्रले आर्थिक गति
विधिमा विस्तार गर्ने खतिवडाको तर्क छ ।

आगामी वर्ष पनि साढे ८ प्रतिशत् सेवा विस्तार हुने उनले जानकारी दिए । यस्तै कृषि क्षेत्रको विस्ता साढे ४ प्रतिशत हुने उनको भनाई छ ।

I dont see so called biddwan Dr.Yuraj K's visible contriboution in the GDP growth or economy. All he is doing is extorting from hardworking. Dont expect contribution from private sector cause of yuraj k. He has negative contribution to our economy.

Without solving liquidity crisis- 8% growth will be hard.

By rising tax, they may gain few billion but economy will loose 10s of billions, may be 100 billion potential addition to GDP. This is called bad economics from bad economist.

Economic is complex. Here if one eats some one else would Sh!t. Son of gothalo should study medicine if he has ability to study. For the person of his background- economics, management are too complex.

नेपालीको प्रतिव्यक्ति आय एक लाख रुपैयाँ नाघ्यो

I think Per capita income is around 2.5lakh.

(This means Nepalese can add 15% more in NEPSE).

५.८ प्रतिशतको आर्थिक वृद्धि हासिल हुने सरकारी प्रक्षेपण Thanks to liquidity crisis, NEPSE crisis, interest crisis.

जीडीपीमा पर्यटन क्षेत्रको योगदान २५ प्रतिशत पुर्याउने पयर्टनमन्त्रीको घोषणा

25 lakh tourist * 1000$ expenditure per tourist = 2.5 billion dollar.
50 lakh domestic tourist* 25000Rs expenditure per tourist= 1.25 billion dollar.

Total 3.75 billion dollar revenue from Tourism.

25% contribution to GDP never gonna happen.

More than 40% equivalent of conservative GDP in Cash is outside the system. If we invest 30% and make 25% profit, GDP will grow by 7.5%.

7.5%+6%=13.5%, 10% growth for 2 year.

दमकमा तीन खर्ब ३३ अर्बको लागतमा औद्योगिक पार्क बन्दै, चिनियाँ टोलीद्वारा स्थलगत अवलोकन

(333 billion just for park, at first, i though it was a print mistake)

उनले तीनदेखि ४ महिनाभित्रमा औद्योगिक पार्कको शिलान्यास गराउने तयारी तीव्र पारिएको छ । उनले पार्कको विस्तृत आयोजना प्रतिवेदन (डीपीआर) फास्ट ट्रकमार्फत बनाएर नेपाल र चीनको शीर्ष तहबाट शिलान्यास गराउने गृहकार्य भइरहेको बताए ।

https://www.kantipurdaily.com/news/2017/12/28/20171228165408.html


-In next 5 year, if govt is stable, dont be surprised if China invest (both private, and govt) 25 billion dollar in Nepal.
+ others, Which could more than double (may be triple) Nepal's gdp in 5 year. (Nepal's GDP is so small, tripling wont be a big deal). On going hydro development will complete in coming govt's tenure.

- China want to open billion dollar bank.
- 12 billion in railway project.
- chinese billions in hydro (china may import electricity, and use it for train)
- chinese investment hotels
- chinese investment in industries (market probably china, india, bangladesh)

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
GDP based on purchasing power parity in the countries of the world

-GDP- 71B$
-Per capita- 2516$

Namaskar Jawalanta7 ji.

Hello Rising Sun!
Namaste!

पहिलो पटक राष्ट्रिय आर्थिक गणना हुँदै, मम पसलदेखि तारे होटलसम्मका विवरण संकलन गरिने
http://www.bizmandu.com/content/-28807.html


before survey, read my post.

surveying in Nepal especially GDP is very complex and almost impossible, if you think it is not possible, here is the easy way,

GDP= Consumption+Saving-Cash outflow.

The Government has estimated the economic growth of the current fiscal year to increase by 6.94 per cent.

"The growth rate is the highest in the past 23 years. The economic growth last fiscal year stood at 0.01 per cent due to the earthquake and the border blockade.""
say india blockade- daal moron. (remember this is a country where father sell their daughter for one lakh to red light and patrakar sell country for a bottle of vodka).

It is also estimated that there would be contribution of 29.37 per cent and 70.63 per cent of agriculture and non-agriculture sectors respectively in the Gross Domestic Production during the period.


Per capita income has reached 862 US dollars against 757 USD last year.

he per capita GDP is expected to increase by 6.1 per cent in the current fiscal year as compared to previous fiscal year - now i am confused, what is the difference between gdp growth and economic growth???


http://www.myrepublica.com/news/20845/

नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धि ७.५ प्रतिशत पुग्ने विश्व बैंकको
http://merolagani.com/NewsDetail.aspx?newsID=33378


Without the help from Govt or NRB?
What if Nepal govt or NRB were ran by competent individuals?
GDP growth 12%????????

यता, चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कुल गार्हस्थ उत्पादनमा प्राथमिक क्षेत्रले (कृषि, वन, मत्स्य, खानी तथा उत्खनन) ३० प्रतिशत योगदान दिने पूर्वानुमान छ भने दोस्रो क्षेत्रले (निर्माण, उद्योग, विद्युत, ग्यास तथा उद्योग) १४ प्रतिशत योगदान दिने अनुमान छ । साथै, सेवा क्षेत्रले (थोक तथा खुद्रा व्यापार, होटल तथा रेष्टुरेन्ट, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, सार्वजनिक प्रशासन, रियल स्टेट लगायत) ५५.९९ प्रतिशत योगदान दिनेछ । - See more at: http://www.nepalipaisa.com/NewsDetail.aspx///id/16481#sthash.YC2Cmr04.dpuf


Great, agriculture sector contribution fallen below 30% and service sector above 55%.


Hope to see agri sector below 5% and service sector above 75%

कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा रियल स्टेटको योगदान ६० अर्ब ३९ करोड, निर्माण क्षेत्रको ४५ अर्ब ६७ करोड - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/04/27/58179.html#sthash.fLPthqpX.dpuf

नेपाली अर्थतन्त्रकाे अाकार २६ खर्ब रूपैयाँ, प्रतिव्यक्ति नेपालीको आए ११ हजारले वृद्धि - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/04/26/58101.html#sthash.DupLwy6n.dpuf

त्यसरी नै एक नेपालीको प्रतिव्यक्ति आय (जीएनआई)९१ हजार चार सय ८८ रुपैयाँ पुग्ने अनुमान विभागको छ । गत वर्षको तुलनामा यो झण्डै ११ हजारले बढी हो । गएको वर्ष यस्तो आय ८० हजार पाँच सय २५ रुपैयाँ रहेको थियो । प्रतिव्यक्ति आय अमेरिकी डलरमा भने आठ सय ६२ डलर पुगेको छ भने गएको वर्ष अमेरिकी डलरमा प्रतिव्यक्ति आय सात सय ६७ थियो ।


--------------
part of what i said in this topic:
--- IMPORT: Nepal imports around 700arab worth of goods, but real figure could be 1000arab. And those goods could be sold at 3000arab (3times)(including huge custom duty). So GDP contribution from Import be (3000-700="""""2300 arab"""")