Forum


ShareSansar Main Page

New Topic

GDP of Nepal

Moderators: बिमलमान, Dilbert.

Post Reply

Page: « < 1 2 3

Author Post
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
पहिलो पटक राष्ट्रिय आर्थिक गणना हुँदै, मम पसलदेखि तारे होटलसम्मका विवरण संकलन गरिने
http://www.bizmandu.com/content/-28807.html


before survey, read my post.

surveying in Nepal especially GDP is very complex and almost impossible, if you think it is not possible, here is the easy way,

GDP= Consumption+Saving-Cash outflow.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
The Government has estimated the economic growth of the current fiscal year to increase by 6.94 per cent.

"The growth rate is the highest in the past 23 years. The economic growth last fiscal year stood at 0.01 per cent due to the earthquake and the border blockade.""
say india blockade- daal moron. (remember this is a country where father sell their daughter for one lakh to red light and patrakar sell country for a bottle of vodka).

It is also estimated that there would be contribution of 29.37 per cent and 70.63 per cent of agriculture and non-agriculture sectors respectively in the Gross Domestic Production during the period.


Per capita income has reached 862 US dollars against 757 USD last year.

he per capita GDP is expected to increase by 6.1 per cent in the current fiscal year as compared to previous fiscal year - now i am confused, what is the difference between gdp growth and economic growth???


http://www.myrepublica.com/news/20845/
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धि ७.५ प्रतिशत पुग्ने विश्व बैंकको
http://merolagani.com/NewsDetail.aspx?newsID=33378


Without the help from Govt or NRB?
What if Nepal govt or NRB were ran by competent individuals?
GDP growth 12%????????
Member
Registered: Feb 2016
Posts: 33
http://www.sharesansar.com/gdp-nepse-index/
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
यता, चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कुल गार्हस्थ उत्पादनमा प्राथमिक क्षेत्रले (कृषि, वन, मत्स्य, खानी तथा उत्खनन) ३० प्रतिशत योगदान दिने पूर्वानुमान छ भने दोस्रो क्षेत्रले (निर्माण, उद्योग, विद्युत, ग्यास तथा उद्योग) १४ प्रतिशत योगदान दिने अनुमान छ । साथै, सेवा क्षेत्रले (थोक तथा खुद्रा व्यापार, होटल तथा रेष्टुरेन्ट, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, सार्वजनिक प्रशासन, रियल स्टेट लगायत) ५५.९९ प्रतिशत योगदान दिनेछ । - See more at: http://www.nepalipaisa.com/NewsDetail.aspx///id/16481#sthash.YC2Cmr04.dpuf


Great, agriculture sector contribution fallen below 30% and service sector above 55%.


Hope to see agri sector below 5% and service sector above 75%
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा रियल स्टेटको योगदान ६० अर्ब ३९ करोड, निर्माण क्षेत्रको ४५ अर्ब ६७ करोड - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/04/27/58179.html#sthash.fLPthqpX.dpuf
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
नेपाली अर्थतन्त्रकाे अाकार २६ खर्ब रूपैयाँ, प्रतिव्यक्ति नेपालीको आए ११ हजारले वृद्धि - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/04/26/58101.html#sthash.DupLwy6n.dpuf

त्यसरी नै एक नेपालीको प्रतिव्यक्ति आय (जीएनआई)९१ हजार चार सय ८८ रुपैयाँ पुग्ने अनुमान विभागको छ । गत वर्षको तुलनामा यो झण्डै ११ हजारले बढी हो । गएको वर्ष यस्तो आय ८० हजार पाँच सय २५ रुपैयाँ रहेको थियो । प्रतिव्यक्ति आय अमेरिकी डलरमा भने आठ सय ६२ डलर पुगेको छ भने गएको वर्ष अमेरिकी डलरमा प्रतिव्यक्ति आय सात सय ६७ थियो ।


--------------
part of what i said in this topic:
--- IMPORT: Nepal imports around 700arab worth of goods, but real figure could be 1000arab. And those goods could be sold at 3000arab (3times)(including huge custom duty). So GDP contribution from Import be (3000-700="""""2300 arab"""")
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
कुल गार्हस्थ उत्पादन वृद्धिदर ६.९४ प्रतिशत पुग्ने

http://bit.ly/2petpbX

- GDP going way up, NEPSE confused and moving sideways.
where are those who used to say, NEPSE is not following reality (GDP) when I used to say, NEPSE is mainly follow future expectation rather than present that is why PE ratio varies so much.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
कर्जा नियन्त्रणले सवारी साधनको व्यापार २० प्रतिशतले घट्न सक्ने, अर्थतन्त्र संकूचनतिर जाँदै - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/02/10/50959.html#sthash.CBGBvtJZ.dpuf


-Only car loan's interest should be highest, not other vehicle loan. Fixing limit is also ok with me, from economic, financial point of view.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
व्याजदर अन्तर घटाउने सरकारको रणनीति, व्याजदर निक्षेपमा ६/७ प्रतिशत र कर्जामा १०/११ प्रतिशत राख्ने लक्ष्य - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/02/03/50320.html#sthash.ROhQy7QE.dpuf


-मन्त्रिपरिषद्को बैठले पारित गरेर अर्थमन्त्रालयले सार्वजनिक गरेको वित्तीय क्षेत्रसम्बन्धी रणनीतिले कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन (जीडीपी)मा वित्तीय क्षेत्रको योगदान ४.१ प्रतिशतबाट ८ प्रतिशत पुर्याउने लक्ष्य लिएको छ ।
As per govt data, gdp is 2500arab, bfis interest income is 200arab. So gdp contribution from bfis is 8%. Looks like Govt only included BFIs profit, not interest given to depositor.

Now Govt wants to increase contribution to 8% which is double. For that, CD ratio needs to be dropped to 8-10% and Govt has to deposit their revenue in the BFIs.
Govt could divide revenue into 4 category- 25% in saving ac, 25% each in 1/2/3 mth fixed account.

Which would increase economic activity and increase business of BFIs and thus increase revenue and creates good paying job.


-यसका लागि जीडीपी आकारको ८९.७ प्रतिशतमा रहेको निक्षेपलाई शतप्रतिशत तथा ७३.६ प्रतिशतमा रहेको कर्जाको आकारलाई ८० प्रतिशतमा पुर्याउने लक्ष्य तोकिएको छ ।
For this CD ratio needs to be down to 8-10%, Hundi cartel should be punished- govt should punish hundi with 25yr jail and 10000 times fine.
Govt needs to punish those who dont pay tax with 200% fine.
And give time and fine to declare their property.
Within 1year- pay 15% tax in declared property.
1-2yr- pay 20%
2-3yr-pay 25% tax
then after that 200% fine for undeclared wealth. Which would bring money into system and banking channel.

-
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4449
Govt says, Nepal's GDP is around 2500arab/ 25B$:

Let's Calculate with wild data and imaginary estimation:

--- IMPORT: Nepal imports around 700arab worth of goods, but real figure could be 1000arab. And those goods could be sold at 3000arab (3times)(including huge custom duty). So GDP contribution from Import be (3000-700="""""2300 arab"""")

Its amazing, import alone contributes around 23B$ and govt says GDP is 25B$.

-- BFIs- BFIs lends around 2000arab. Here, BFIs and depositors gets around 10% (200arab) in interest. And those who take loan may make around 15% profit in average(300 arab).
So calculation from BFIs data, we could say, contribution from those who take loan to GDP is around (200+300="""500arab"""").


-- Wages from BFIs angle- Those who take loan, may be paying direct wages, let's say 50% (""""1000arab""""").

-- Mutual fund- Mutual funds lends around 50 arab and those who take loan from mutual fund may be making more than 100% return.
Which means, we add """"50arab"".

-- Remittance- around """500arab""".

-- Out flow of money- 1400arab, we have already included import of 700arab, and secret import 300arab which is paid by inflow which we dont calculate, so no need to include 300, and out going remittance could be 200arab which is included in 1400 arab, so out flow increased needed to be reduced in GDP would be (1400-700=""""-700arab""").


-- Govt contribution- Budget 1000arab- including salaries, donation etc, since, we import a lot of goods from 1000arab during development projects which we have already included during out flow of money, so no need to reduce any amount in 1000arab.

So we can say, GOVT contribution to GDP is """"1000arab"""".

-- Agriculture- the hardest to guess, let's say 50Rs/day/person (50*365*2,50,00,000=456.250arab= """450arab"""). Since we already have deduced import(import of fertilizer, agro product etc), so no more figure to subtract.


SO THIS IS SMALL PART OF ECONOMY, AND CALCULATING JUST FEW ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, NEPAL'S GDP IS SEEN AT LEAST (2300+500+1000+50+500-700+1000+450= """5100arab /51B$""""")



90% self employed dont take loan from BFIs. Those who take arab loan from BFIs may make 15crore profit but those who dont take loan but invest just 20thousand makes around 3lakh per year. So, under unknown self employed individuals make far more percentage in profit than those who take loan from BFIs. So there contribution to GDP is huge too.
EG- when BFIs give taxi loan- BFIs/depositor make 10%, taxi owner makes 10% while taxi driver makes more than 25%. Plus, there are mechanics who fix taxis, who dont take loan from BFIs but may be from cooperative.

Professionals like carpenter, painters, hairdressers and may make a lot of profit than their investment.

More than 25% of houses in cities get paid in rent.



JUST CALCULATING ROUGH DATA USING IMAGINATION, GDP is clearly about 50B$ while govt says its 25B$. how is it possible???

Real GDP could be 100B$.

Some may say, south korea's GDP is 1 trillion $, how could nepal's GDP could be 1/10 of South korea?

Just imagine, if our GDP is ten times higher than today, dont you think, NEPAL would look like Skorea or even better. What if those who ride TATA car in Nepal earns 10times, they may ride better car than SKoreans.


ONE OF THE REASONS NEPAL IS POOR CAUSE OUR 100 MAKES 20eps WHILE SKOREA'S 100 MAY MAKE 200eps.
Worst is, 20% cash is sitting idle in BFIs/NRB, 250arab sitting IDLE in Govt coffin.

If we want to become, rich like SKorea, our BFIs need to make 150EPS and Other business need sto make 500EPS.

And Uniliver makes more than 1000eps.

Post Reply

Page: « < 1 2 3

Sharesansar Forum Powered By Miracle Hub