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Nepse Long Term Trend

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Member
Registered: Feb 2017
Posts: 1
Technical analysis is Good to know only for knowledge purpose not must to know for investing . You just need to know the basic fundamentals of share market and companies and whenever you see any company undervalued and has a earning power BUY. Remember in a short term market is a voting machine but in a long term it will be a weighing machine. Traders will have a hard time but I don not think Investors need to worry much. Believe in companies you Invest. Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Apr 2016
Posts: 245
I think Nepalese stock market is not running with fundamentals and technical analysis. It has been running with speculation, speculation and speculation. we cant predict the market where will it go......

nepal ko market ra kannon daiba le janun jastai cha
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Composition of index always change from time to time across the globe. But that does not alter the Elliott Wave pattern at all. I have been experiencing this since last 9 years of my study in the global market. I follow market across the world from India to US. There is bubble like situation in Nepalese stock market at current juncture which has to burst first to rise rise again. Moreover, i am not claiming that 800-900 is 100% for sure. It is only the probability not the certainty. But, Elliott wave theory is the most objective theory which proved right in technical analysis method. Overall nature of the market is growth and only growth but it follows a certain pattern in its growth. Thus, there are some fractal similarity in the pattern which may follow in the future as well.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4587
I am no technical guy.

I just checked the chart.

The biggest flaw is, during last bull when market reached 1100 plus (then crashed to 300), that time, NEPSE used different formula to calculate NEPSE position than today.

1/2 year back, they said, to break previous record of 1100+,1/2 year back, nepse had to break 1800+. So today, NEPSE must have needed more than 2500 to break that 1100+ record.


so, 800/900 today, compare to past's 300, must be 3000 mark.
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
NEPSE Short Term: Two alternatives are provided in the chart, one argues for direct drop towards 1100 and other argues for recovery from 1500 towards 1800 and then drop towards 1100, But that too will be a ending pattern. Looking at other indices (Primarily Banking index), there is thin probability of going up. The first confirmation of trend reversal is a close below 1628 and followed by 1538.
We will re-examine the wave position once it drop towards 1500. In both the scenarios, It is highly recommended to exit at least 50% positions for now and wait for further confirmation.
Another long opportunity will come near the bottom of upcoming Primary Degree Wave 2 which is expected at around 830-900.

Click below for chart and projection (Short term update).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmRDRQUll5QnBWS1k/view?usp=sharing


Click below for chart and projection (Long term update).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmam1ZUld3RFRoOGs/view?usp=sharing
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
It is wrongly written as Nifty. Please read it as NEPSE.

For your queries, I am not news monger. I really do not know what news may follow to drag NEPSE towards 800-900. But, Technical analysis based on Elliott wave pattern tells me there is high probability that it has finished Primary Degree wave 1 as truncated fifth wave. I is the guideline of wave principle that after completion of one particular wave it can fall towards previous wave 4 in one larger degree. In our case, NEPSE previous wave (4) is placed at 830 and 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 200-1880 is placed around 900. Thus, i come with that target. Moreover, there is many other indices which perfectly completed wave (5) from all angle. You can look at the individual index Chart below to know how bubble has build in some sectors that need to be burst soon viz Insurance sector.

Moreover, I ma strongly in favor of Long term bullish view in Nepalese Stock market. Once it makes bottom near 800-900 range. Another bull market will follow as the most powerful bull market we have ever witnessed in history of Nepalese Index. Thus, look at the totality not in absolute term. This is only the probability and not the certainty.

Click below for Insurance sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmZGFTcGI5dWEtVFU/view?usp=sharing


Click below for Finance sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmTUJhQ2J0M0YwYnc/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Banking sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmVjJOZWdHY0lseU0/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Hotels sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmdS1hV1h1OVB3eG8/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Development Bank sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmVHZMdmhDZHBWS1U/view?usp=sharing
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
It is wrongly written as Nifty. Please read it as NEPSE.

For your queries, I am not news monger. I really do not know what news may follow to drag NEPSE towards 800-900. But, Technical analysis based on Elliott wave pattern tells me there is high probability that it has finished Primary Degree wave 1 as truncated fifth wave. I is the guideline of wave principle that after completion of one particular wave it can fall towards previous wave 4 in one larger degree. In our case, NEPSE previous wave (4) is placed at 830 and 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 200-1880 is placed around 900. Thus, i come with that target. Moreover, there is many other indices which perfectly completed wave (5) from all angle. You can look at the individual index Chart below to know how bubble has build in some sectors that need to be burst soon viz Insurance sector.

Moreover, I ma strongly in favor of Long term bullish view in Nepalese Stock market. Once it makes bottom near 800-900 range. Another bull market will follow as the most powerful bull market we have ever witnessed in history of Nepalese Index. Thus, look at the totality not in absolute term. This is only the probability and not the certainty.

Click below for Insurance sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmZGFTcGI5dWEtVFU/view?usp=sharing


Click below for Finance sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmTUJhQ2J0M0YwYnc/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Banking sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmVjJOZWdHY0lseU0/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Hotels sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmdS1hV1h1OVB3eG8/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Development Bank sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmVHZMdmhDZHBWS1U/view?usp=sharing
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
It is wrongly written as Nifty. Please read it as NEPSE.

For your queries, I am not news monger. I really do not know what news may follow to drag NEPSE towards 800-900. But, Technical analysis based on Elliott wave pattern tells me there is high probability that it has finished Primary Degree wave 1 as truncated fifth wave. I is the guideline of wave principle that after completion of one particular wave it can fall towards previous wave 4 in one larger degree. In our case, NEPSE previous wave (4) is placed at 830 and 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 200-1880 is placed around 900. Thus, i come with that target. Moreover, there is many other indices which perfectly completed wave (5) from all angle. You can look at the individual index Chart below to know how bubble has build in some sectors that need to be burst soon viz Insurance sector.

Moreover, I ma strongly in favor of Long term bullish view in Nepalese Stock market. Once it makes bottom near 800-900 range. Another bull market will follow as the most powerful bull market we have ever witnessed in history of Nepalese Index. Thus, look at the totality not in absolute term. This is only the probability and not the certainty.

Click below for Insurance sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmZGFTcGI5dWEtVFU/view?usp=sharing


Click below for Finance sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmTUJhQ2J0M0YwYnc/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Banking sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmVjJOZWdHY0lseU0/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Hotels sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmdS1hV1h1OVB3eG8/view?usp=sharing

Click below for Development Bank sector;

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmVHZMdmhDZHBWS1U/view?usp=sharing
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4587
look, how criminal works,

last time, when NGBBL crashed from 1200 to way down, NGBBL did not care cause that time it was ordinary investor suffered.

this time its big players who lost in crores, and now they have released this ग्रामीण बैंकको प्रष्टीकरण : हाम्रो अवस्था खस्किएको होइन है !
Read more at http://www.bizshala.com/story/%E0%A4%97%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%B0%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%AE%E0%A5%80%E0%A4%A3-7#w4i8zWsWQcgtXOeC.99.

when will investor punish, merolagani.com too?
Member
Registered: Oct 2016
Posts: 268
Crash bhai sakeko xaina ra hajur??

3800 ko ebl 1300 ma xa!!
2700 ko nabil 1700 ma xa
1450 ko sbl 440 ma xa
2800 ko chcl 775 ma cha
1100 ko mbl 340 ma cha
4800 ko nlic 2100 ma cha
900 ko nmb, sanima,aaile kata xa!!!
3400 ko swbbl aaile 1800 ma cha.
615 pugeko ccbl ta 252 ma cha aaile

esta ajja kati example diu. There is only 3 reason for this crash in my opinion.
1. immediate huge supply of shares in the market with respect to demand.
2. Traders haru badi nei vaye. Chahine bhanda pani badi. Who book profit or sell at a loss in days.
3. 12% return is less risky than capital market.

But bisnu bas ji, yo pahila ko puji bazar hoina jun nirmal pradhan, ambika poudyal, kamal gewali and chandra dhakal le manipulate garna sakos. Reason: Traders nei badi xan and mutual funds are ever increasing their presence . Everyday there are new faces in brokers office. People are realizing ki secondary market ma paisa cha bhanera.

I agree Banking index ajja ali ghatla cause supply badi cha. But these will cancel out in the future.
Terai ko badi is catastrophic especially for microfinance and insurance companies. But 1100 nei pugxa?? I don't think so.

We are also waiting with cash ghatos baru we will add. If the market does go down, adding is always a better option, starting from 0 is better rather than a sell out.

Bhukampa ma nepse dekhiyo, nakabandi ma dekhiyo, esta madhesh banda, durga kafle atanka sabai dekhiyo. Tyes ma ta darayera share bechiyena ulto thapiyo bhane. technical analysis ko dar le chai share bechinna hajur.

Yo Cycle ko bare dherai lai tha xa hajur. Yo cycle predict maile around last year gari sakeko thiye, tara nepse always surprised me. A crash right now is the best thing that can happen for investors and worst thing for a trader cause in the end it will eventually grow higher.

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4587
NEPSE began to crash after alchina M!@# F!#$! governor, sebon, nepse hit the NEPSE from outside (when NEPSE reached the all time high),

cause it was crashed unnaturally, it could not recover naturally. (Before their intervention from outside, criminal media, criminal brokers, criminal big investors tried to spread negative propaganda to crash the market, they could not that is why govt joined. In nepal, Nepse has to increase after those criminals buys and has to crash after they sell and they sold just after 1700)

I doubt, technicality has to do with it any thing.

Today, mid level banks which is suppose to be priced at 700 (I am expecting 1000 after NRN's entry) is at 400, which is too low.
For NEPSE to crash to 800-900, those mid level banks has to crash to 200.

I am no god, so I dont want to say anything about NEPSE crashing to 800-900, could be possible if alchina NRB governor, PM, finance minister, sebon, nepse want.


Papi le desh chalaya pach sab satya nas hune raicha.

And by the way, other technical analyst- like share sansar, said, market is suppose to cross all time high. They said, if current NEPSE holds for some time it is suppose to cross in short/mid term, and NEPSE has already held current level for some time now.
Member
Registered: Feb 2017
Posts: 31
Hello Bishnu jee,

First of all, thank you for sharing technical information. I believe, only very few in this Forum have the grip on technical side of stocks market's behaviour. I am definitely not a technically sound person. For people like me this post comes as a warning to exit with 50% of my stock value from the market and wait for the market to hit 800 or 900.

I do not know how to take this news. Should I base my decision on this graph or news, or move ahead with whatever little knowledge I have got.

To truly fulfil the propose of your post and intention behind it, I think we should have more discussion on this especially from your side to help us understand the scenario. Otherwise this message would not make much difference to most of us.

Thank you.

PS: Any reason your other post is titled as "Nifty Cycle wave"? Nifty being a product of NSE from India.
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
NESPE Long Term Trend: The Cycle wave I completed in NEPSE in 2008 near 1175. The Cycle wave I rose almost 6 times and took four year to complete. After Cycle wave I top in 2008 at 1175, almost 4 years bear cycle started till 2012 which pulled index towards 300. The 4 years bear cycle has erased almost 75% of the gain that it had made during bull cycle. After completion of Cycle wave II in 2012 near 300, it again rose 6 times in 4 years period till 2016.
The Cycle wave III which started since 2012 should prove to be the most powerful rally we have ever witnessed in Nepalese main index. Till now it is finishing primary degree wave 1 of Cycle degree wave III. Thus, primary degree wave 1 is expected to finish near 1700-1800 as truncated 5th. Remember most of major tops in NEPSE were made in the period of July-August. So, it is very much near to complete the Primary degree wave 1 in this month.
Post completion of Primary wave 1, a dramatic decline should follow which can pull prices below 1000 in Primary wave 2. Fibonacci retracement 61.8% of Primary wave 1 calculates around 900 and previous intermediate degree wave (4) is placed at 838. Thus according guideline of Elliott Wave Principle wave 2 generally retraces towards previous wave 4 in one larger degree i.e. 838 in our case.
After completion of Primary Degree wave 2 of Cycle wave III, Primary Degree wave 3 will witness the most powerful rally we have ever witnessed in the history of Nepalese indices. Thus, Investors are advised to sit in the cash (at least 50%) and deploy that cash near the bottom of Primary degree wave 2 which is expected arrive around 800-1000 in the next 1-2 years.

Note: All Major tops in NEPSE are made during the months of July -August

Click below for Chart and Projection

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmam1ZUld3RFRoOGs/view?usp=sharing

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