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NEPSE TO HIT 1000/- mark in coming days !!

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Member
Registered: Mar 2016
Posts: 11
I realize that Nepalese are real Sheep. bheda nai hun...
Nepse 1800 huda, PE ratio 30-40 pugda, sab line lagera Broker office ma hunthye.. 1200 ma SCB , 601 ma NIB, 501 ma BPCL pauna line lagera basthye...
Now, Commercial Bank ko PE ratio 10 ko average ma cha, dividend batai loss hudaina, market badhna ta badhi halcha ekdin.. aile sab sell garna line lagirachan.. Bheda haru
Member
Registered: Apr 2018
Posts: 25
Traders can book profit even in bearish market by applying proper technical analysis indicators and can minimize loss by stop loss based on market cycle in bearish market. Since market is in bearish phase, long position is not appropriate to invest now; those who did not book profit and make stop loss are in huge loss. We can imagine those who bought at 1881 or even in 1650, they might be scare to look at their portfolios.
I guess wise investors study market very minutely before investing their hard earn money. Its up to investors wisdom when to enter and when to exit market but the primary aim of investors in market is to make huge profit either in bear or bull run. Everyone wants profit but only 10% can earn and rest loose.
Every one expected to increase NEPSE when there was
1. Political stability through stable government ( but NEPSE still down ward may be due to Communist or any other reason)
2. Policies and infrastructure ( margin trading through broker on pipeline and online trading (i have been using since last two weeks and it works though can not say full online)
3. Companies are earning huge profit making them fundamentally good profit ( net profit, EPS, PE, PBVPE )
Despite this market is still bearish, I guess there are two main reasons for this
1. High Bank interest
2. High supply of shares
Until and unless these two problems are not solved (low bank interest and create environment for NRN/ hedge fund or market maker to absorb excess supply of share) the bullish will run for few more months.
Till then
Technical indicators such as MACD, RSI, Stochastic RSI, moving average and Fib Retracement can be used to make money in bearish market. I do not have idea about Elliot wave though interested to know about it.
Fundamentally I feel Insurance and some of the micro finances are overvalued still now.
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 130
A wise investor does not agree with anyone. To agree to another, even one proclaimed as wise by people, without appropriate reasoning or sufficient evidences is also no different from a gamble.

Therefore, let us share our views here based on reasoning or evidences. The major factors involved are
1. Macro economic scenario of the country and globally
2. Political stability
3. Policies and infrastructure with regard to stock market
4. Direction of the company - known through fundamental analysis, leadership and management
5. Technical analysis - basically for timing the transaction to maximize profits

So based on TA, what do the experts say - where are we right now? Which Elliott wave is running? Where is the NEPSE on Fibonacci retracement? Have signs of accumulation been noticed? Which sectors to suffer or surge more and why?
Member
Registered: Apr 2018
Posts: 25
Now agree with Deepak ji, NEPSE heading towards 1080 zone with microfinance and insurance affecting mostly, the past NEPSE histroy shows NEPSE has long bear run of 4 years, since NEPSE hit 1881 on July 2016, therefore, bullish run will start only from 2020.
« Last edit by Dare_in_Share on Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:55 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Market in total control of Bear. Some of the mutual fund houses which deployed equity few months back now must be on MTM losses on those position. Looking at the current scenerio many of Mutual will give negative return to marginal return. Mutual fund with lower exposure on equity will give marginal return.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
I was heading toward this forum, just outside black cat crossed the road :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
NEPSE again forming Lower tops and Lower bottom pattern and has broken 1 month Low Level in today session !!

Thus hinting again Bear has taken the control of the Market !!!

Very soon in coming days we heading again to a form New a 52 week Low.

Caution is advised to Investor who has Long Position.

Happy Investment !!! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Ha Ha Ha !! Don't kow what to say. Totally Clueless.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
report UP so NEPSE should be down
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Well today it is raining which indicates the winter season is on edge of completion of its current cycle. Now in few days its time to come out of hibernation. Now Q2 numbers will also about to dictate the next direction of Nepse.

Happy Investment !!! :lol: :lol:
Member
Registered: Sep 2018
Posts: 4
Waiting for some analytical comment from Deepak Ji
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 42
Share market ta bigreko ghadi jasto bhayo ta. Na tala jancha na ta mathi jancha ...... :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Today If we are closing below 1172/- then it's a bad news for bulls !!

Still in Hibernation mode just peeped out of window Today !!

Will be back after Q2 only !!

Happy Investment !! :lol: :lol:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
This topic is for negativity, so if you want my reply, which is positive, visit following link, Tywin Lannister ji.

https://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=6050
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 42
PujiBhairav ji i respect your analysis and read everything you say and i hate to contradict you so here are my 2 cent.
Say you are a Bike helmet trader .... there are 3 crore people in Nepal.... say even 10% own a bike
ie 3000000 helmets needed .... say even they replace helmets in 1 year we have 8220 traded every day so bike helmet price must go higher and higher.... if i sell a helmet at 1000 today in 6 month it will be 2000 ...
That logic is flawed on so many level .... there is a price to pay and value to be achieved ....
Have you calculated returns on equity ?I mean using a calculator or on a piece of paper???? I dont want to name specific companies but there are only few companies earning more than 7-10% return on equity most of the hydropower earn below 4% on investment .... some micro finance earn 2% ..... What is the incentive on investing if they earn below saving deposit interest rate?
Many will contradict saying i didn't take in growth rate... banks wherein profit are growing ... insurance expanding their sphere of influence .... micro finance expanding equity base .... but do you know which company will be leading these industries in 10 years? nobody knows ... Where is Nickon Air? Where is STC? Where was bishal bazar for 5 years? the matter of fact is nobody knows where companies are headed for 5 years.... I am not part of 1000 gang or anything ... i would love to see nepse at 3000 level but at what cost? if nepse reach 2000 then the value an investor will get will be below 0.5% .....

Even if any company earning 5% return on equity doubles its profits it will still not be under priced so as to compensate risk premium....
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 320
Deepak ji said "My work is Over Now !!"
देश, जनता र लगानीकर्ताहरूमा त्रास फैलाएर बजार घटाउने Work अन्य देशमा गर्नेलाइ फासी/कडा सजाय हुन्थ्याे ।
त्यस्ताे Work गर्न नफर्कनु हाेला कुनै दिन नेपालमा पनि कारवाही हाेला ।
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
1417000 Dmat Holders = Lets suppose 700000 trades on secondary market = This number is increasing each day

4 arab kitta shares in the market = 49% public shares and traded means 2 arab kitta shares traded = and supply has ceased now

Now,
2000000000/700000 =2800 Kitta

Now we can assume that how much potentiality NEPSE has to rise provided the interest rate goes down and savings diverted to the market

WHEN MARKET WAS DECREASING - INT RATE LEVEL WAS SOLE FACTOR - AND NOW WHEN ITS SURGING DIPING INT RATE IS THE SOLE FACTOR = THIS CANNOT BE JUSTIFIED FROM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS STARTS FROM CETERUS PARIBUS (OTHERTHING REMAINING COSTANT) = HENCE DONT SEE THIS SURGE FROM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OR ELSE YOU WILL GET MISLEAD

....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Fri Dec 28, 2018 8:24 am. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 91
DEEPAK JI, WE WILL MISS YOU AND HOPE YOUR HIBERNATION LASTS AS LONG AS OF THE POLAR BEARS. I AM VERY CERTAIN THAT THOSE WHO THOUGHT THAT YOU COULD TIME THE MARKET ARE VERY MUCH DISAPPOINTED AT YOU. PLEASE CONSULT WITH BISHNU PRASAD BASYAL ABOUT HIDING LOCATION. KUDOS...MAKE PEACE AND HAPPY INVESTMENT
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
Our friend representing 1000 gang in this forum taking about selling long term shares and advising others not to buy for a couple of month and baisal posting multiple message warning not to invest ........... coincidental????

some great mind once said nothing is coincidental.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
Like i said in my post, "2019 PREDICTION ASSUMPTION ANALYSIS" on DECEMBER 02, 2018 (long before this surge)

Invested 50% by than and investing is still going on
Portfolio has increased impressively

Not making an exit so soon
And Big Money still to be in the market


....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Today also we are continuing to see New Money Inflow in the Market !!

Till Now New Money is entering the Market, the Market tends to Move up irrespective of its Valuation Concerns till new money is flowing in the Market.

All Investor are advised to keep 1175/- as a Stop-loss Level for your Investment !!

We are Completely out of the market by Yesterday. Now we hold almost 0% in NEPSE stocks.

Time to say Good Bye to Forum Members till Q2 are Published !!

My work is Over Now !!

Happy Investment !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:15 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Since last few days new money is entering the market which lead Nepse to surpass level above 1200/-

The +ve biasness in Nepse will continue till we are holding above 1175/- level.

Any dip in the market should be used as a buying oppurtinity.

Happy Investment
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2288
credibility of bidhwan and 8C Dr is clearly shown by market response.
शेयर बजारलार्इ सकारात्मक प्रभाव पार्ने सरकारी अध्ययन प्रतिवेदन बुझाएपनि बजार किन घट्यो ?
People are doubting on the implementation, becoz similar ASWASAN was given in the past. Its easy to throw TUKKA.
We have to wait another 4 years to give our verdict. Next time JANATA ko GHAINTO ma gham lagla.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
funny, you used to say, cause of dollar strength, high oil price, economy of nepal will be harmed.

Now its opposite.

World's GDP wont go into recession, never unless there is war or some idiot start trade war.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yesterday Crude Oil down by 6 +%.
Today Japanese Index Nikkei 225 down by 1000+ points more then 5+%.

Let see what is there for Nepse ??

Global turmoil could lead to job loss by migrant workers.

Remittance inflow to be impacted.

Lets see what's next ???
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Dec 25, 2018 9:14 am. »

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