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NEPSE TO HIT 1000/- mark in coming days !!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yesterday we witnessed Volatility in the NEPSE as Expected.

On closeing basis NEPSE seems to have broken it crucial Resistance of 1165/- but still some paramater suggest it could be a False Break out or a Bull Trap.

Parameter supporting Bull Trap are :-
1. Minimum Turnover requirement was 56 crores but was falling short of it.
2. If any Resitance is broken the minimum premium of 0.5% should be maintained from the Resistance level on closing basis which was @ 1271.32 which didn't happend.
3. The Overall market bredth was Negative which suggest lack lusture buying intrest apart from few Index weightage counter.
4. High Beta Stocks haven't performed Yesterday.

Now the Pattern suggest maturation of the Upside. Now time to cashout all your major profits portion from the table.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:38 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
Good Volume, Closed above 1165, Bank and dev bank- the most undervalued sub index both rose with good no.

And the last but not the least, in technical analytical term, made a perfect cup shape in yearly index. :lol:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
NEPSE has manged to break the 2 minor Resistance of 1147/- and 1152/-.

Now NEPSE has the Major Hurdle of 1165/- which has to be broken consisvely on closing basis with Good Volumes.

If it manages to break 1165/- with strong volume then we can witness further upside till 1183/- . Else it will be considered as FALSE BREAK-OUT or a BULL TRAP.

Investor are advised to have cautious approach with partial withdrawal of cash off the table. Volatility is expected in the market.

Happy Investment !
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:35 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
I would guarantee, NEPSE will crash to 1000 today. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: I swear on deepak ji life. :mrgreen:


RIP yesterday's victims.
First time in Nepal people died from direct cyclone. Bus turned.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yesterday NEPSE le Lal Saalam ne thokyo.

Yesterday Nepse did made an effort to break it first Resistance of 1147. It managed to Break it on an Intraday basis but could not sustain above it and finally ended in Lal Salam.

Despite of successful Completion of Investor Summit NEPSE could not hold it gains and finally closed in Laal Salam Indicates that's NEPSE is all set to Head towards its Support zone of 1129/-

NEPSE Resitance is Seen @ 1147/- then followed by 1152/-

Support is seen @ 1129/- the followed by 1117/-

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
After the Completion of the Investment Summit market will react to it in Today session.

NEPSE to Face Resistance @ 1147/- then followed by 1152/- .

If we manage to surpass these 2 Resistance on closing basis then we can understand that Market Reacted in +ve else it is assumed it reacted in -Ve on the Investment Summit.

Failure to Surpass Resistance indicates we heading again to Support Zone of 1129/-.

Happy Investment !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Sorry the Resistance is seen @ 1152/- instead of 1252/-
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
The NEPSE did took support @ 1147 till 12 Noon. But After Noon it could not and finally broke the support of 1147/- on closing basis which indicates Now the Next Line of Support is 1129/- then followed by 1117/-
With Resistance See now @ 1252/-.

Happy Investment !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 91
I THINK OPENING PRICE OF SHIVAM WILL DEPEND HUGELY UPON THE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT IT. TRADERS MUST HAVE BOUGHT IT IN FEW QUANTITY AND THEY WILL TRY TO BRING IT DOWN TODAY. IF LONG TERM INVESTORS HAVE BOUGHT IT, ITS PRICE WILL SURGE IN NO TIME.

MY PERSONAL GUESS IS MOST NUMBERS OF SHARES ARE BOUGHT BY INSIDERS.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
FED maintain it's Intrest rate as it is as expected @2.5%.
Today is the Listing of Shivam Cement.
My guess of listing range @ 347-356/-
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
Saudi's currency is pegged with $, so other gulf currency must be doing same. Hongkong $ too pegged. So when $ is weakened, it will effect remittance.


Since, we hardly import from US, so when $ price change, our import wont effect much. When dollar strengthen, almost all currency weaken not just NC and vice versa. So not much effect in trade.

Normally, when $ strengthen, Oil,gold decrease or vice versa. But lately, I have seen many times all three going same direction. It means US hegemony is ending.


Position of those holding $ will be effected.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:14 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yes Dubosi7 ji Tomorrow is the FED Policy @ 11:45 PM NST, Yes Many of the Analyst feel that FED will maintain its rate @ 2.5% only. No Hike in Rate is expected. !!

As Yesterday was the crucial Day for NEPSE as predicted earlier which stated If NEPSE won't break 1165/- means we would be heading towards the support zone of 1147/-

Finally today we did came down to support Level Near 1147/- Finally closing @ 1147.15.

Happy Holy to all the Investors !!

:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2288
upcoming Fed monetory policy (probably by tomorrow) may not change the interest rate. If so, $ further depreciate.
Impact on our economy;
- Remittance amount will further dwindle down and fundable bank deposit further reduce.
- FDI may get affected due to low $ rate.
- Affect export.

you can easily guess the overall impact in Nepali Capital / Money market ??????????

HAPPY HOLI !!!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Strong $$ is not good for our over all Economy. As being more of import oriented Economy Strong $$ Leads to Trade deficit which leads to less Gross Domestic Saving !! But Strong $$ is a good friends to those Banks who has Strong Forex Reserve !!

Weak $$ is good for our Economy Provided the Rate of consumption do no exceed the fall in $$, But weaker $$ on the other side makes our export oriented economy less Competent Globally !!

But if Rate of Consumption growth is higher then the rate of fall of $$ then still Negative Impact on Economy. And if Rate of consumption increasing and $$ also increasing its further further Bad for our Economy.

Here Weak $$ refers to Those Banks who are sitting on huge FOREX reserve. when Revaluation is done on their assets which will done as on this chaitra Masanta, because of the weaker $$ rate for the same unit of Asset it will lesser then the last Quarter. thus how which will impact its Balance sheet.

For Example. you had 100 kitta share 3 months back then the Market Price was 150 so the value of your assets that time was 15000/- Now as on chaitra masant if the price of that share is 100/- then you assets on that date for 100 Kitta will be 10000/- only !!

Hope you got it !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:06 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
When $ is up, you say Banks will go down.

When $ is down, you again say Banks will go down.


At least stop licking your own split.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 42
Are you talking about international banks because as far as i know nepalese bank have hedged position of all currency except INR due to NRB requirement....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
"Banking Stock were getting Bid !
But weaker US $ destroying their Lid "

The weaker US $ to impact the balance sheet of the banks, especially those banks who are sitting on huge Forex Reserve. Those banks who already booked $$ are safe.

At Chaitra Masant we will see the re-valuation of the Forex Reserve by the banks.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Jul 2014
Posts: 110
Thanks deepak ji!
Everyone here is reading you.
Do continue with your updates.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Tomorrow is a crucial Day for NEPSE !!

Tomorrow if we don't break 1165/- Level On closing basis that means we heading towards the support zone of 1147/-.

Until or unless we don't break the range of 1147-1165/- we won't see a strong move on either side !!

Happy Investment !!

:lol: :lol:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
NEPSE still facing Resistance @ 1165/-
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yesterday NEPSE did tried 2 times to sustain above 1165/- range but could not suceed as 1165/- acted as the Resitance. 1147 continue to remain as immidiate support for NEPSE.

Until or unless we don't break out this range of 1147/- on lower side and 1165/- on upper side till then the market will remain range bound only. Unlikely to see any strong move on either side until or unless it don't come out of it's range of 1147-1165/-

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yesterday NEPSE did tried 2 times to sustain above 1165/- range but could not suceed as 1165/- acted as the Resitance. 1147 continue to remain as immidiate support for NEPSE.

Until or unless we don't break out this range of 1147/- on lower side and 1165/- on upper side till then the market will remain range bound only. Unlikely to see any strong move on either side.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
The NEPSE Rally which began from 5 March from 1102 level is likely to mature @1165/- .

1165/- will likely to be the Resitace though it is not even 2 points from it's yesterday Close.

If NEPSE manges to close above 1165/- then further upside is expected with support seen @ 1147/-.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Profit Booking Session is seen in the today's Market !!

Market if continue to hold above 1117/- for the Next 2 Trading session then it indicates that it has formed the Short term Bottom @ 1100/- level !!

People who are long should keep Stop-loss @ 1117/-.

This Stop-loss is Valid for 2 days only. If in 2 days if we don't see going below 1117/- then Stop-loss is advised @ 1100/- Only !!

If Market Moves beyond 1252/- then we should consider 1100/- as the Bottom till then it just a short term Bottom Only !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Looking at the Pattern of chart of NEPSE it is forming Top which is becoming lower and lower with base formation @ 1100/-.

The More time spending near the 1100/- zone indicates it is all set to break that Level but awaiting for some Trigger !!

Though i saw 1100/- level has been broken but it's not officially. As we saw a 20/20 kitta Price Supportive trade through broker no 59 in NTC, one of the heavy weight of NEPSE to avoid it breaking down of 1100/- Level which is acting as a Physiological Support !!

Now Some Trigger which will act as Catalyst for the Bear Player's are :-

1. Conversion of 6% Promoter share of Prabhu Bank into Ordinary shares.

2. Up to 6% subscription only till date of Global IME Bank Debentures bearing Interest Rate of 10.25% P.A. whose time line of subscription has been extended till 14 Chaitra, Indicating Low liquidity Scenario in the Market.


Disclosure : The Above mentioned points are for study purpose only, it should not be considered as a recommendation to BUY OR SELL. Trader & Investor are advised to take opinion from their Expert adviser and consultant before making any decision.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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