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What started chain reaction, Monitory policy-2078 did. Dipendra bahadur chettery is gonna die in a year or two.

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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
I am the only one in Nepal, who regularly analyze Nepal's economy, analyze important economic event.... but now, every one in Nepal has become fking economic expert. What they know about- economy, what NRB been doing for last 1.5 year- that they are here to support ex governor.

Some idiot say, govt should not have kicked out governor when economy is in sh!t. M00rons, this is when you fire the person in power, this is when person in power gets fired all over the world, this is when revolution happens all over the world.

When you are born in a human body, you should have a bigger brain than that of a doggo.

Finance minister, when resign, after getting humiliated in the election????

Remember, the title of this thread """What started chain reaction, Monitory policy-2078 did. Dipendra bahadur chettery is gonna die in a year or two."""" ???

(Its amazing, that MF Dipendra bahadur chettery also the reason behind the crisis and still he has not committed suicide and worse, media taking his interview regarding solving economy problems created by his advice. )

I even started this thread, knowing that no one in Nepal has memory except for myself.

I started this thread, demanding sacking of governor, d governors, fm, financial secretary.

I did warn, everything will turn into ashes.

I became Economist, cause I could not find a single one in Nepal, who warns govt. I became Economist due to the second or third Monitory policy previous governor Chirinjivi Nepal. Today, fake news owned by criminals are taking his interview regarding economy, banking ..... the person who was behind the collapse of the economy, share market, banking during the last time.

sati ko sarap.

This is why" Wealth of owners/promoters of BFIs, insurance, media should be investigated, its source, where investment came from, their expenses, their domestic and international link, their activities- to protect national security as well as economy.

Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
Economy is vast.

Balance of payment, foreign currency reserve is one of the major elements of the economy, and there are many many more.

6-9 months back, I suggested to directly intervene import. NRB was trying to control it indirectly, which I opposed.

NRB tried to decrease import by destroying kitchen of public, by destroying income of public, by destroying business of public.

How do you feel, if your kitchen is closed just cause dollar reserve is dwindling? which was not needed???

Just to decrease import, NRB tried to destroy all elements of the economy and still it did not work and finally they have stopped import with directly intervention. During this time, Nepal may have lost many many kharabs, many family must have suffered.

(In Nepal, only I understand economics, and instead of listening to me, they listened to every dumb out there, worst, they took advice from those who destroyed the economy in the past)

In Nepal, main source of income are- remittance, smuggling/tax evasion/fraud/black money, looting of budget and non of them are affected by tax and interest rate and liquidity. NRB policy only destroyed official economy. Not criminal economy.

Now to reverse damaged economy caused by NRB policy ............ (And decrease tax, including import tax too)

Govt/NRB need to loosen monitory policy, reverse all the policy brought to tighten the economy, except for import. Undo share related monitory policy too, or you will pay in election and if you want to increase remittance and if you dont want people to suffer, if you dont want economy to suffer.

To fix reserve problem, control import in short term and for long term, increase export, production.

Ban import of private vehicles for 6 month. Undo ban on electric bike after 2 month, undo ban on electric car and bike in 4 month.
Unnecessary food/furniture/garment and many goods, should be import banned for 3/4 month.

I had been saying 6/9 month ago, We only had dollar reserve problem, then NRB monitory policy destroyed the whole economy.

pakhe le des chalaune haina- SECOND TO GOD
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
Case against ex governor:

1: राजनैतिक दलको सदस्य वा पदाधिकारी भएमा : Was governor had no idea about economics and banking or he just acted as political hit man? Problem with Nepal's economy during about last one year is extra import of around 3 arab, and trying to control the problem, he hit 40 kharab economy (abour 100 kharab in real economy) and he tried to destroy the largest voter segment (after gender) which is share market.

Every govt try to protect their share market while enemy govt try to destroy share market of enemy share market. In Nepal governor, nrb tried to destroy share market.

So are those sign of ignorance about economy, banking or just a political hit?

2: बहुलाएको व्यक्ति: NRB always took order from elected government. But this mad governor challenged elected government.

He kept double downing his bad policy every month.

3: राष्ट्र बैंक ऐन बमोजिम बैंकको उद्देश्य हासिल गर्नको निमित्त बैंकले गर्नु पर्ने कार्यहरु कार्यान्वयन गर्न, गराउन कार्य क्षमताको अभाव भएमा : NRB's job is to maintain liquidity position- but the governor, nrb destroyed liquidity with Monitory policy.

Nrb's job is to maintain right interest rate- but the governor, nrb pushed for out of control interest rate, would have gone worst if elected govt had not intervened, but every month they tried it but every time elected govt prevented, and still interest rate has reached close to 15%.

NRB's job is to maintain inflation- But the governor did the opposite by letting interest rate go out of control, by decreasing supply of good and services, by decreasing supply of liquidity ...

In the world central bank's one of main job is to protect share market- but governor, nrb tried to destroy it.

NRB policy should help create job- but the governor tried to destroy current job and prevent any future job creation by destroying liquidity, interest rate and loan policy.

Problem in Nepali economy about a year back was high import of about 3 kharab. I did advised to control import directly. All they had to do was ban private cars, unhealthy food, electronics for a few month. But instead went to destroy income of Nepali, went to close the kitchen of Nepalese hoping, it would decrease import. to control 3 kharab, they destroyed 40kharab (unofficial 100kharab) economy. What kind of policy is that???

Because of their attack on share market, remittance could have decreased by 25-100 arab.

Long term solution of balance of payment is increase export, increase production. Which can be done by decreasing cost of living, cost of doing business by decreasing tax etc, including import. But NRB policy increased cost of living, doing business by a lot.

The list is unlimited, only question is how many you can think of or remember or you know.

4: मुलुकको बंकिंग. तथा वित्तीय व्यवस्थामा हानि नोक्सानी पुग्ने कार्य गरेको देखिएमा : The governor destroyed banking industry by destroying liquidity and interest rate with monitory policy. By controlling loan policy.

Cause of the result, bfis' NPL would come under tremendous pressure, which would collapse the whole country.

NRB destroyed profit of bfis. Govt revenue, income of society depends upon bfis good profit, which NRB destroyed.

5: बैंकको काम कारबाहीमा बेइमानी वा बदनियत गरेको देखिएमा: Governor did micro management in BFIs to destroy the system to help kp oli.

The list would only increase depending upon how much you understand economy, banking and have insider info. How much you can remember. How much time you have to think.

I did warn, longer this crisis go, louder will be the voice of idiots. Now, idiots in media, social media have increase their voice, also thanks to srilanka.
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1865
गभर्नर, डेपुटी गभर्नर तथा सञ्चालकलाई हटाउने कसले हो , सरकार कि अर्थमन्त्री ?
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
कस्तो अवस्थामा पदमुक्त गर्न सकिन्छ ?

नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंक ऐनमा विभिन्न ६ वटा अवस्थामा गभर्नर पदमुक्त हुन सक्ने उल्लेख छ

१. राष्ट्र बैंक ऐनको दफा २१ बमोजिम सञ्चालक हुन अयोग्य भएमा गभर्नर पदमुक्त हुन सक्छन्

निम्न अवस्थामा राष्ट्र बैंकको संचालक हुन अयोग्य भएको मानिने छ

-राजनैतिक दलको सदस्य वा पदाधिकारी भएमा,

-वाणिज्य बैंक वा वित्तीय संस्थास"गको कुनै कारोबारमा कालो सूचीमा परेको व्यक्ति, वा

-वाणिज्य बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाको बहालवाला पदाधिकारी, वा

-वाणिज्य बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थामा पाच प्रतिशत वा सो भन्दा बढी शेयर वा मतदानको अधिकार भएको व्यक्ति वा

-ऋण तिर्न नसकी साहूको दामासाहीमा परेको व्यक्ति, वा

-बहुलाएको व्यक्ति, वा

-नैतिक पतन देखिने फौजदारी अभियोगमा अदालतबाट सजाय पाएको व्यक्ति

२. राष्ट्र बैंक ऐन बमोजिम बैंकको उद्देश्य हासिल गर्नको निमित्त बैंकले गर्नु पर्ने कार्यहरु कार्यान्वयन गर्न, गराउन कार्य क्षमताको अभाव भएमा

३. मुलुकको बंकिंग. तथा वित्तीय व्यवस्थामा हानि नोक्सानी पुग्ने कार्य गरेको देखिएमा

४. बैंकको काम कारबाहीमा बेइमानी वा बदनियत गरेको देखिएमा

५. खराब आचरणको कारणबाट कुनै पेशा वा व्यवसाय गर्नबाट अयोग्य ठहयाई प्रमाणपत्र खोसिएको वा व्यवसाय गर्न रोक लगाइएकोमा

६. मनासिब माफिकको कारण बिना लगातार तीनपटक भन्दा बढी समितिको बैठकमा अनुपस्थित भएमा

यी ६ वटा अवस्था बाहेक अन्य कारणबाट गभर्नर डेपुटी गभर्नर तथा सञ्चालकलाई हटाउन नसकिने ब्यबस्था राष्ट्र बैंक ऐनले गरेको छ

So there are 5 legal reasons, ex governor can be fired.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
Governor out!

Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
I believe, 25-100 billion remittance could have been decreased cause of attack on share market. Nepalese outside may have gone for alternative share market as well as crypto. In Nepal, last two economic crisis started, after they attacked share market. I dont think, this is coincident. It is related.

We knew about crisis since long time ago, and govt and so called expert just found out.

I did say, when they find out about the crisis, it would be already late.

Dont tell me I did now warn.

- I had been talking about signing- criminal law with countries to get back criminals, loot wealth into Nepal. We could post intelligence official in those countries after signing such law and get assistance from security of that country.

And offer 20% commission from wealth confiscated from money launderer, to those who give information. (I have information about chaudary, send me 5 arab :mrgreen: )

- (an idea from some media), govt could only give re permit to those workers who had send money through legal channel. this is easy way.

I too advice to build reservoir based hydro above big projects like tamakoshi around 7 year back. Cause of current FM, when he was hydro minister, now we are facing unofficial loadshedding.

They are beginning to do, what you said last year, Simrik ji.


Now we have electric bikes, scooters with range of 100 km. In 1.5 year, the range may reach 200km, then govt can ban import of bikes, scooters whose capacity is less than 145cc.

Hydrogen vehicles for cargo.
This would be best for Nepal. Break water, utilize hydrogen in Nepal and export Oxygen. Wonder if we could replace LNG with hydrogen.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:00 pm. »
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 172
I agree with Rising. The odd/even numbers in major cities for six months. This will ensure fast movement of vehicles, less fuel consumption and less pollution.
The fuel inflation is here to stay. Recently prices have come down after the news that Biden is releasing a million barrel a day from Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Chinese lockdowns. But these are temporary measures and oil will end up 120-150 by EOY. Why?

1. Come summertime, demands rise, construction peaks up, oil will keep going up.

2. Air traffic has yet to reach 2019 level. Folks will travel this summer.

3. US Shale producers haven't increase capex. Shale oil well depletes quickly. Increasing capex is required to maintain the production level stable. Biden government and his party are talking about levying windfall profit taxes on oil companies and casting them as price gouging villains. Just yesterday, there was a hearing in the US Congress to investigate high oil prices. This definitely doesn't encourage oil companies to explore and drill for more oil.

4. Canadian heavy oil producers haven't increased capex either. Also, what is discouraging oil producers besides regulatory uncertainty is significant backwardation on oil futures contract. For example 2025 oil futures contract was trading for 60 dollars per barrel until January 2022.

No one will invest significant money on new oil fields if oil is bring 60 dollars per barrel in 2025.

5. Russian oil may be completely shutdown by May as storage facilities are being filled quickly. If oil wells are shutdown, its going to be hard to bring them back online. Some oil wells may be permanently damaged.

6. OPEC doesn't have much spare capacity.

7. Houthis will try to damage Saudi oil infrastructure.

8. Lack of steel pipes, drill heads, drill bits, fracking sands and manpower in US/Canadian oil fields due to supply chain issues.

9. When we think of oil, we only think of oil that goes in our vehicles. Petroleum products are used to make things like vaseline to perfume to plastics to medicines. The demands for consumables are coming from developing countries. Remember an average US person consumes 10 times more fuel than an average Indian. What happens when the Indian middle class keeps getting richer?

Bigger vehicles, one car family becomes 2 cars family. A bike riding family becomes a car owning family. Demands for AC, Refrigerators keep going up. More steel has to be produced, which means more iron ores, coking coal and metallurgical coal needs to be mined. Heavy equipment running on diesel are used in mining.

10. EV? Where will all the nickel come from? An EV needs strong steel structure to carry all those heavy battery packs, 160 lbs of copper per vehicle. Again, more mining means more fuel consumption. In the short term. more EV means more fuel consumption.

11. No significant oil field discovery in the last 10 years. The fracking technology developed by US shale producers brought plenty of oil in 2010s, leading to oil prices going down since its peak in 2013-2014. The mantra was to drill, drill and drill. And they did drill a lot without thinking of economics. Many of these companies went bankrupt. Now, the boards of these companies are tight and shareholders will rebel if they increase capex by a lot.
Guyana offshore is a good discovery but it will take time for that field to replace depleting US shale which many oil engineers think will go dry in this decade.

We are in for a long decade of high inflation. We will need a huge recession to temper it down. The standard of living for many folks will go down. In many countries we will see civilian disruption as already being seen in Srilanka.
As a citizen, we can do our part by consuming less.
« Last edit by simrik on Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:20 am. »
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 172
EV is a long term solution. 10 years out.

I posted following in October last year.

Few steps the government can do for next 1-2 year term to escape this bout of inflation and conserve foreign currency.
1. Stop new hydro projects. Complete those that are in various stages, complete the transmission lines. India won't be buying our surplus electricity unless its from projects where Indians have invested.
2. Stop imports of luxury vehicles.
3. Stop imports of foreign wines/spirits/beer.
4. Put restrictions on imports of cereals/grains/palm oil/soybeans from Argentina. Most of them are being smuggled to India.
5. Put special units to stop gold smuggling from TIA.
6. Jail Hundiwalas. Have police special forces go after them.
7. Open the country to people who are vaccinated. Make VISA free if they spend more than 15 days in the country.
8. Improve process for folks willing to go to S. Korea, Japan and Israel. These countries are clamoring for Nepalese labor.
9. Start landing buddhists from around the world in Lumbini.
10. Start campaign to reduce consumption of imported goods.
I still haven't seen hundiwalas in jail. The cops know who they are. I would add few more. Government is reactive, but many of us knew this would come. Worldwide commodity inflation was very evident in 2H last year.

1. Establish high support prices for domestic grain production.
2. Stop imports of flowers/furnitures/shoes/cosmetics/nuts/luxury fixtures for homes/cigarettes for one year.
3. Require outsourcing and consultancies to get paid via Nepalese banks.
4. Cut subsidy on LPG into half. People won't conserve until pain is felt.

But our bread and butter is Remittance and Tourism. Stop gold/silver smuggling, money laundering, cut imports. The government also needs to be proactive to get funding lined up from IMF/ADB/World Banks. This is something we can together overcome.
As a citizen, all of us have a duty to curb our consumption.
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 311
रेमिट्यान्स पठाउँदा रेमिट्यान्स कम्पनीले लिने शुल्क घटाउने । रेमिट्यान्स कम्पनीबाट रेमिट्यान्स पठाउँदा पठाउने कामदारलाइ Incentive काे व्यवस्था गर्ने । अनावश्यक अायात बन्द गर्ने वा कर बढाउन मिल्ने भए बढाउने र स्वदेशी सामान प्रयाेगलाइ बढावा दिने नीति लिने । जलविद्युत सकेसम्म बढी उत्पादन गरी निर्यात गर्ने र उपयाेग गर्ने ।
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1865
Fuel lockdown is not the solution.

Policy level changes to promote E-V and efficient electric supply/turbo charging stations can only solve current fuel crisis.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
Today, I one media (dont remember which one) wrote that CD ratio crossed 91.**, but the latest, yesterday's was 90.58. Looks like somebody been selling.......

Wealth of owners/promoters of BFIs, insurance, media should be investigated, its source, where investment came from, their expenses, their domestic and international link, they activities to protect national security as well as economy.

बजेटमा सहकारीलाई प्राथमिकता दिइनेछ : अर्थमन्त्री

Take out this village idiot to prevent further crisis.

Partial fuel lockdown.
Private- even/odd (expect for electri) for a month.
for taxi- even/odd on friday and saturday. for a month.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
Last time also, during Maoist/dalal congress government- share market as well as economy collapsed.

This time, same crisis repeated.

To pass MCC, dalal congress threatened to bring down the govt..... but no body- pm, fm, governor, finance secretary... no body is getting fired for economic crisis, share market crisis, banking crisis.

I dont know about hijada nepalese, but I will make them pay in the election. I wont vote for dalals, incompetent- congress, communist ......... My vote for mandala.

My only worry is, what if, may voted like me and mandale becomes gets the majority and gyne returns. Another problem. But it will be the problem for the future. :mrgreen:
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
No Vote
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
पूर्वअर्थसचिव भन्छन्-'बैंकहरुमा लगानीयोग्य रकमको हाहाकार भयो भन्ने हल्लामात्र'

and some ask, why Nepal is a sh!thole.

and media invites past failure for the interview.

to save Nepal, promoters/owners of bfis, insurance, media should be investigated for their- wealth, source of wealth, their connections with domestic and foreign powers.

This is national security threat.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
ब्याजदर बढाउँदा पनि निक्षेप संकलन बढेन, निक्षेपकाे ब्याजदर बढ्दा बैंककाे खर्च बढ्याे र ऋणीहरुले बढी ब्याज मात्र तिर्नु पर्याे

- I tried many time to silence those dumb, dangerous idiots. But I did not get support from others.

- Every time there is liquidity crisis, these idiots appear. This time, their number have gone drastically down. May be thank to me.

- And there are other idiots, who advice to solve liquidity problem by making borrowers pay back the loan.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz if borrowers pay back the loan, business of bfis will fall, deposit will fall, revenue of govt will fall, job created will fall, economy will fall .......

Des pakhe le chalaune haina- SECOND TO GOD.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
China's Intervention Sends Stocks Soaring

There is war going on across the border and they are worried about share market.

They should hire officials from NRB and bankers from Nepal too.

Banker promotors advised dalal congress 11/12 points, they did not include corruption, smuggling, tax evasion. MFs

To save Nepal, Bank and insurance promotors, media owners should be investigated.

Let's nationalize all their wealth and gang all those MFs.

Turned out, tomorrow is holi. when market is continuously down, you wont notice anything else.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
Pakhe haru le NTC dhosta parne bho
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 172
Not gonna help.

Lots of hedge funders and private equities and investors made their careers investing in Russia in 1990 and 1997. May be this is an another chance. Time will tell.

Nepalese businessmen who made money in Russia and holding Russian assets must be suffering now.

Russia ETF is down quite a lot.

US/EU may halt Russian securities from trading. It is basically fucked up scenario there. But, when time comes back for picking, this will be another lifetime opportunity.

If I were to bet in countries, it would be Brazil/Chile/Vietnam/Mexico. First two because they export lots of commodities. Last two because, they are benefitting from Sino-US cold war and labor inflation in China. Manufacturing will move to Vietnam and Mexico(close to US shores).
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
Russia's government will spend up to 1 trillion rubles to buy shares of companies that have been sanctioned

In Nepal, NRB said, they dont care about share.

MC pakhe le des chalaune haina: SECOND TO GOD
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
World market rebounding.

Good news coming


hedge against hyper inflation

Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
संस्थापक शेयरधनीले अन्य संस्थाको शेयर किन्न राष्ट्र बैंकलाई सोध्नुपर्ने

After they banned cooperative from investing in share market, dark day for banking share began.

Then, they added fuel into the fire by banning bfis to invest in BFIs' shares.

Now this. Until pakhe in Nepal die, there is no future of Nepal.

Pakhe le des chalaune haina: SECOND TO GOD
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
From FIRE, now waiting to be ASHES.
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
One of the consequences of destroying share market, I did not see, ............ capital flight to crypto.

They did say, if share market is destroyed, remittance flow will fall.

क्रिप्टो कारोबार बढ्न थालेपछि तात्यो सरकार, उच्चस्तरीय कार्यदलको पहिलो बैठकमा के भयो?

I dont think, crypto has hit liquidity, BOP that hard. NRB and finance ministry are just using it to shift blame for their incompetency.

There is zero chance, they will be able to control crypto trading.

'चुनावको मुखमा ब्याज बढाउन लगाएर सरकारलाई आलोचित बनाइयो'

are village idiot, because of the election, NRB is creating economic problems. They got order from KP oli.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:28 pm. »
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6351
If you dont have connection with NRB, finance minister, listed company and big players ....... you have zero ability to predict the market.

Sati ko sarap

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