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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
I am just Sharing you one of my experience, The Last Bull of Nepse had started from Last week of December 2019.

Just do the Research and Find it out.

At the Current juncture if you look from Last week of December 2023 onwards till now there are Multiple stocks which has given the return from 25% onwards to upto 107% as on Last Trading Day of the B.S. 2080.

There are Multiple stocks which has already started the Bull Rally irrespective of Nepse Index gaining approx 90 Points from 2079 to 2080.

Among the Rallied stocks I have holdings in many which are under Investment theme and are locked till Dec 2026.

Apart from that the Finance Index has made a New 2 Year High, and continue to hold Above 2000/- mark Despite Strong Profit Booking Session.

Apart from that the Development Bank Index is showing an early sign that it is getting to ready to make new 52 week high viz a viz 2 year High.

Index wise Finance and Devlopment Banks looks Good but Apart from Index wise there are also Stock specific actions in different sectors.

Kindly Note that the Stock listed in last 6 months are not considered in the Study.

Happy & Prosperious New Year 2081 in Advance.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
Today Finance Index hit a New 52 Week High of 2087.46/- & Finally Settled @ 2066.85

The Last 52 Week High of Finance Index was 2016.83 which was Recorded on Sunday (07 April 2023)/-

The Race Leader in Finance Sector which are NFS, PFL & JFL are likely to Hit 500/- Mark Soon as they are near to the Striking Rate of 500/- Mark.

Market Data further Suggest that the Next to Follow the Race seems to be Development Banks Sector.

Further Updated Market Data strengthen the Suggestion that the NEPSE Bulls will be Lead by Finance Sector & Development Banks.

Happy Investment 😊!!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Apr 09, 2024 4:56 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
What Market has lost in 4 Trading session was recovered in just 1 Trading session of Sunday.

NEPSE FINANCE INDEX has Hit 52 Week high of 2016.83 mark on the last Trading session.

Last Day we witnessing Very Very Srong Move in Finance Sector, as Finance Sector Index was up by 5.95%.

And secondary the Strong Move was seen in Devlopment Bank Index as Development Bank Index was up by 3.16%.

The Current Data suggest that the Bull will be lead by Finance Sector and the Development Bank Sector.

In the Last Bull it was lead by Micro Finance Sector and Non Life Insurance Sector.

Happy Investment 😊!!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Apr 09, 2024 6:11 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
In 16 Trading session Nepse has lost 120 odd Point from its Recent Peak.

But if you look at the Data it took just 4 trading session to gain 120 odd Points.

In last 2 trading session we have started buying the shares again under the Trading theme as earlier Booked Profit on shares under Trading theme.

Market Continued to Defend 2000/- Mark which is considered as a Positive Sign.

The Current Flavour of the Market is Low Cap Stocks, Among the Low caps Stocks I like Regional Bikas Banks, Finance, Micro & Few Hydros.

Micro has already Rallied so won't advise to Buy Micro at the moment till Profit Booking Session is over.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
In 14 Tradind session Nepse has fallen 110 odd points from its Recent Peak.

Since Last 2 trading session Nepse is trying to Take Support Near 2000 Physological Mark.

Now as the Downside Risk has got limited one must use this Dip as a Buying Oppurtinity for their Favourates stocks which has the tendency to Climb Up fast,

After booking Profit on the Trading Portfolio will Re-enter the Market Again for some quick Gains.

HAPPY TRADING
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
MKHL (Mai Khola Hydropower Limited) Today Hit a 10% UPPER Circuit & has entered the Un-charted Territory,

Now its very difficult to Predict its Resistance Level but we can make wild guesses only.

MKHL was Recommended for Accumulation when it formed the Tweezer Bottom.

Later We had Given a Buy Call @ 245/- for the Target of 365/- which was Achieved on Last Week of DEC 2023.

In Span of another 3 Months its has Now Hit an All time high of 434.50/-

Market is Market ...... What is seen is the Reality,

This is an another Example of Power of Investing against Trading !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
GUFL (Gurkhas Finance) & KRBL (Karnali Bikas Bank)

Technically on Daily Chart it look like that it is in Process of Completion of Bullish Flag Pattern or it has already completed the Bullish Flag Pattern Cycle Yesterday.

Tic Toc. Tic Toc for Next Strong Up Move.

Hold Tight if you have any Holding.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
One of the Late. Ace Investment Guru Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has said :-

"Trade What you See & Not What you Think"

In the Current Scenarios All INDEX are Under Performing Except Development Banks.

But in General it won't look so, But if you Segregate or Demerge the Development Bank Index into 2 different INDEX.

A) Regional Level Development Bank INDEX.

B) National Level Development Banks INDEX.

We will find that Regional Level Development INDEX is in a Bull Phase and Currently Consolidating for NEXT Strong Up move. The Momentum will Catch up As soon as Traders starts Noticing it.

It's a Matter of time only Sooner or Later the Cash will Chase the Stocks of Regional Development Banks.

Happy Investment & Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
Before Holi many of Traders and Investor exited the market and entered into the festival mood.

After the end of Holi in Himal and Terai Belt the Investor and Traders are seen returning back to the Market.

Yesterday Hydro Power shares Reacted to News that Power Import Agreement is in Dilema and NEA will be unable to Buy Power from Competative Market and instead will have to opt to Purchase Power generated from Gas based Power Plant which is Far expensive almost 3X then the Open competitive market. Which may trigger NEA to increase PPA rate with the local Hydro Power companies.

Now the News says विद्युत् आयात सम्झौता नवीकरणमा भारत सकारात्मक, आयात अवरुद्ध नहुने अपेक्षा

Let's See, Now How Hydro shares React today.

Happy Trading !
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
One of the headline in one of the online News Portal says :-

विकास बैंकमा करिब अढाइ लाख खाता निष्क्रिय, १ अर्ब ५ करोड रुपैयाँ बेवारिसे.

The Maharaja Stock in the Finance Sector GUFL ( Gurkha Finance ) Continue to outperform among its Peers.

The Maharaja Stock in the Development Bank Sector KRBL (Karnali Devlopement Bank ) continue to outperform among its Peers.

These 2 Stocks has created the Wealth for the Investor over a Period of 1 Year rewarding the Capital Appreciation of 72% and 56% respectively based on Yesterday Close Price.

No Idea whether the Trader Made money on it or Not but Investor has definitely made, This is called the Power of Investing against Trading, In Trading some makes money some loose money.

I am just imaginating during underperforming Nepse Index it is Performing then what could be its Price during Mega Bull ?? A question I asked to myself asking to Friends in the Group.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
As per the Capital Adequecy Framework 2008 guidelines All Banks have to maintain the required minimum Core capital (Tier-1) of 8.5% set by Nepal Rastra Bank.

Among Commercial Bank as per our compiled data Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) has the highest CAR of 15.90% whereas Himalayan Bank Limited (HBL) has the lowest CAR of 11.61%.

But the Regional Devlopments their Capital Adequecy Ratio is near the Border line of 8.5%, Thus it looks like that Regional Development Bank might Opt or may be compelled by NRB to go for the Right Share through Right Share Issuance.

Right Issuance of Shares is something which Retail Trader and Investor like for the Banking Sector.

The Techical Chart Data shows that 4 Regional Developement Bank has already given a Bullish Breakout on Daily Chart and some Regional Development Banks are hinting for a Bullish Breakout.

Let's see what is Next for the Market for Devlopement Bank Sector.

Disclosure : The Above statement is for Study Purpose only and not a Financial Advice, one must consult an expert or CA before making any Financial Decesion.

Happy Investment..
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:41 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
25% of the Hydro Investor & Traders are seen booking loss and exiting from the Hydro Stocks.

Those Investor and Traders are sometimes Flocking to Life Insurance Counter, Some time to Micro Finance Counter, Some time to Manufacturing Counter, Some time to Finance Counter & Some time to Development Bank Counter.

Totally in the state of Confusion Which Sector to Enter 😂 😂.

They need the Guidence from the Expert.

Any Guidence from the Expert in the Forum.

Kindly Comment..

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
Among all the listed Scrips in NEPSE the First Bullish Break Out was given by GUFL (Gurkhas Finance ) , Yesterday it has hit the 2 Year High Rate too. 😁

Till Now only 5 Scrips has given the Bullish Breakout out among which one is From Finance Sector & 4 are from Devlopment Bank Sector.

Among the Devlopement Bank Sector:-

I Personally feel KRBL ( Karnali Bikas Bank will take the Lead among the 4)

The other 3 Scrips in Devlopment Banks Sector are :-

1. GRDBL ( Green Dev. BANK )
2. SINDU (Sindhu Bikas Bank )
3. SAPDBL (Saptakoshi Devlopement Bank)

Profit Booking Session seems to have got over for these Development Banks except for SAPDBL , Saptakoshi has to fill the Technical Gap created between 285-295, At least 288 it has to Hit before making Fresh long Position, For Rest 3 Devlopment Banks Scrips Fresh Long can be Created.

Yesterday Some Micro Finance jumped but it should be avoided for Now as we need to Watch its Price Action in Next Trading Session ie after Fagun Purne. Need to check what Action is taken by Yesterday Buyer of Micro Finance who will get Delivery of Shares on this Friday.

Disclourse: I have holdings in All 5 Scrips, The Above statement is for Study Purpose only, And one must Consult an Expert or CA before making an Financial Decesion. As Equities Market are Subjected to Market Risk.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7476
What is the Update on Settlement on COVID 19 Insurance Claim Which is still Due from Insurance Companies,



- the guy behind the crisis, who is maoist's guy, who then said- 'we are are going to do which no one has done in the world (wonder why? Nepal found out the hard way), we are introducing Covid insurance for 100Rs' ..... now he wants to be SEBON boss with maoist backing.


He destroyed insurance sector with all kind of policy, when he was insurance boss.


Sati ko sarap.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
लघुवित्त पीडितहरुले लामो समयदेखि गरेको आन्दोलन स्थगन गर्न र उनीहरुको माग पुरा गर्न भन्दै सरकारले गत शुक्रबार नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकका डेपुटी गभर्नरको नेतृत्वमा ७ सदस्यीय कार्यदल गठन गर्ने निर्णय गर्यो ।

चैत १ र २ गते भएको छलफलपछि आन्दोलनरत पक्षसँग सरकारले ६ बुँदे सहमति गर्यो । तर, सहमतीका ६ वटा बुँदा मध्ये बुँदा नम्बर ५ मा रहेका केहि शब्दले वित्तीय प्रणालीमाथि नै संकट ल्याउन सरकार आफै अग्रसर भएको देखिन्छ ।


What is the Update on Settlement on COVID 19 Insurance Claim Which is still Due from Insurance Companies,

??

God Knows !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
Yes, There are early indication that some has started booking losses in Hydropower and exiting to enter other.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7476
Dev bank was bullish. zeeee I guess, I was sleeping.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
Today We Witnessed the Profit Booking Session in Development Banks which had given Bullish Break out few days Ago,

Which are :-

1. GRDBL (Green Development Bank)

2. KRBL (Karnali Bikas Bank)

3. SAPDBL (Saptakoshi Development Bank)

4. SINDU (Sindhu Bikas Bank)

Apart from that We also witnessed Profit Booking Session in :-

5. GUFL (Gurkhas Finance)

Profit Booking is the due Course of the Market Trend and Profit Booking Session also Makes the Scrips Much Healthier.


Disclosure : Above Statement is just a Personal View and Market Commentary Only.

HAPPY TRADING !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
After KRBL (Karnali Bikas Bank) which gave the Bullish Break Out on Last of Day of the Week

The Three Other Developments Banks has Given the Bullish Break Out on Daily Chart Today.

Which Are :-

1. SAPDBL (Saptakoshi Development Bank)

2. GRDBL (Green Development Bank)

3. SINDU (Sindhu Bikas Bank)

Disclosure : The Above Opinion is Purely for Study Purpose Only.

Happy Trading
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 320
Hydro, Hathway, GUFL, SONA बाट trading गरेर केहि फाइदा त भयो। तर येस्तै कवाडी कम्पनि किनबेच गरेर नै कमाउनु परेकोले share market प्रतिको विश्वास कम हुदै गएको महसुस भैरहेको छ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
On Daily Chart 2 Stocks has given a Bullish Break Out with Strong Volumes :-

1. KRBl (Karnali Bikas Bank )

2. GUFL (Gurkhas Finance)

GUFL Closed low due to last 10 kitta trade Glitch, Which has resulted in the False Candle Formation. Which may result in 1 Day Trade Circuit Filter Limit only if Hlitch Trade Price is considered.

Let's see whether NEPSE will Manually adjust the Trade Circuit Filter for GUFL ignoring the Glitch Trade or Consider the Price Filter Range based on the Glitch Trade Rate.

Let's Wait For Sunday.

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
We iniated a First Sell Call on Upper Tamakoshi after it Broked 779 Level in Last week of August 2021.

Later we again Dowangrade it for a Sell Call when it was hovering near 440 level in March 2022 for the Target of 165/-, Let's see whether we achieve that Target or Not ??

Similarly we have initiated a BUY Call on 3 Dev. BANKS :-

1. GRDBL (Green Devlopement Bank) for the Target of 560/-

2. KRBL ( Karnali Developement Bank) for the Targer of 560/-

3. SINDHU (Sindhu Bikas Bank) for the Target of 542/-

Disclosure : Nobody can be 100% Perfet which includes me too. But the Barometer is what is the Probability or Percentage of Success Achieved.

Today is Thusday the Last Trading Day of the Week and Market is Yet to React to the Political Event which occurred Yesterday, As PM took the Vote of Confidence after the Closure of the Market.

Happy Trading 😊 //
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
Today Onwards we have started Deploying the fund under Trading Theme.

Looks like that 20 20 match has also Begun for Nepse.

Today Nepse Broke 2 consecutive Resistance level in a singal day ie. 2080 then followed by 2100 on closing Basis.

Now Next Resitance Level is 2120/-. Tomorrow Political Event for Vote of Confidence is likely to Drive the Market.

Finger Crossed 🤞

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
After the 100% infusion of the fund under Investment theme now searching for the Scrips under Trading theme.

During the scanning Process we have identified 3 scrips which were outperforming the Nepse Index which has given a +Ve Return of more then 20% in last 1 Year. Which were :-

1. SINDHU - Sindhu Bikas Bank a return of 24% in a Year Tenure.

2. KRBL - Karnali Bikas Bank a return of 32% in a Year Tenure.

3. GRDBL - Green Devlopement Bank a return of 40% in a Year.

These 3 Scrips looks good for Tradeing Prospectives to us and are in our Watch List too but we are waiting whether they are Breaking the Immediate Resistance level or not before making any entry in these Scrips.

Disclosure: Not a Financial Advice, Purely for Study Purpose only.

Thought of the Day " Chalti ka Naam Gadi, Jo na Chale wo kabadi"

Happy Trading
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2097
For the Week the Market gained 70 odd Points.

During the Week whoever wanted to Exit on assumption Market will form Low again from the Current level has Exited.

We have Now invested 100% Cash under Investment theme.

Whatever bought under Investment theme is Now locked for end of 2026.

Now After Shivratri will take out the Fund under Trading theme which is Purely dedicated for Technical and Speculation Play in the market.

JAI SHAMBHU

HAPPY SHIVRATRI !!

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