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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 16
Dipak jee,
I remember the 'magic number' 4250 you mentioned for Dev banks which is crossed now as I am not a technical expert and also that I have almost 1/3 holding in Dev Banks.
What would be your recent view/observation after 4250?
Thanks in anticipation
BH
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Yesterday Up Tick in Price was utilised by us to completely exit out remaing Holdings in the Market.

As Ashad closure is Near and we need to Close the Books of Accounts.

Now there will no activity by us in the Market till Ashad End.

New Activity will began in the Month of Sharwan only.

Now Market seems to be Reacting to News based flows only.

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Today is an Important Day for the Market.

For Upside Momentum NEPSE need to Break 2080/- on closing Basis and for Downward Momentum NEPSE need to Break 2065/- on Closing Basis.

If NEPSE Breaks 2080 will Add Fresh Cash in the Market but if NEPSE breaks 2065 will start liquidating the existing Holding.

Will watch the Market till 1 PM today and will Act Accordingly.

Existing Holding has an average return of 7% as on Yesterday closed MTM Rates.

Today Market will be Tricky too.

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
NEPSE has Formed 3 Black Crow Pattern on Daily Chart.

But at the same time NEPSE Major Support is Pegged @ 2065/-

Currently Mkt. Looks Oversold .

Today any Dip in Price created by the Market Punters should be utilised as the Buying Oppurtinity.

The Falvour of the Mkt. Continues to be LOW CAP STOCKS.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
As expected in the Last Rally 2 Sectors didn't participated in the Rally which were Bikas Bank & Hydro Power.

There was a Price Catch Up due for these 2 Sectors.

In last 2 Trading Days we have witnessed many Hydro Scrips are Catching up the Prices as many Scrips has hit 10% Upper Circuit.

Yesterday we witnessed Increment in Volume in some Bikas Banks Scrips which indicates those Scrips are also Gearing up for the Catch up in Prices.

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
NEPSE Again in the Process on Forming Second Morning Star Pattern on Daily Chart the same Behaviour which was last witnessed near 1955-60 Zone almost 18 trading Session Back.

That Time we Rallied from 1955 Zone to 2155 Zone a gain of almost 200 odd points on NEPSE.

Currently We started @2075 considering the same Behaviour if Rally of 200-220 Points occurs like same in the past then we could see NEPSE trajectory of 2275-2295/-.

In last Rally 2 Sectors were Laggards mainly Bikas Bank & Hydro Power Sector and there is a Price Catch Due for these 2 Sectors.

May be this time their Turn in the Market, Lets See.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Jun 05, 2024 8:43 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Looking at the Todays Market Movement Market Showed the Sign that the Final Technical Retracement was observed at 44% where the Max Room for NEPSE Technical Retracement was Pegged @ 50%.

Last Trading Session & Todays Market Trading Session confirmed that the Major Flavor Component of the Market remained the Low Cap Stocks.

Now Again the time has come to Ignore the NEPSE INDEX and Focus on Low Cap Stocks.

Keep a Hawk Eye on Low Caps Stocks.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Currently NEPSE is undergoing Correction and in Technical Terms it is call Retracement.

Considering 50% Retracement Cycle the Downside for Nepse is Pegged till 2055-56 Mark.

Let's see whether it the Pull Backs starts from Near 2055-56 Zone or from the Current Level Itself.

The Budget Hangover is Over Now for the Market and Now the Market will Continue its own Natural Flow of its Move.

Some Finance has started taking Head out of the sideways Movement, The General Trend is Finance shows the Action and Bikas follow the Reaction.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Accumulate KRBL & GRDBL in Range of 423-440 Level.

As New Moves are Expected Soon !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Yesterday Market made an effort to move up but could not managed to move up infact closed down by 23.81point.

Now the Support for NEPSE is Pegged @2080/- and 2115 to act as the Immediate Resistance followed by a closure above 2130/-- an end of the Correction Cycle.

Today Nepse need to defend 2080/- Mark else further Correction to Continue.

Yesterday Correction was lead by Large Caps and Low Caps were seen moving sideways with Minor Gain & Losses.

Looking at the Behaviour and the mood of the Markets seems that's:-

Traders and Investors are again seen interested in Low Cap Stocks.

If Today Low Cap Perform means the Momentum stocks in the Nepse will be again Low Cap Stocks.

Among the Low Cap I like Regional Dev. Banks but has not yet Participated in the Recent Rally of the Nepse.

May be a Good Catch for the Upcoming Sessions.

Let's See

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Today if NEPSE closes above 2130/- Mark then the Conclusion is Market Liked the Budget !!


Lets see the Final Closure of the Market Today.

Tic Toc Tic Toc....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Yesterday We witnessed the Correction in the Market which is required to make the Market Healthy.

Today is Day for People to BUY, who think the Upcoming Budget will be Good, Yesterday was a Day to sell for the People who think the Budget will be Bad.

One Day Ahead of the Budget I will use Yesterday Correction in market as Buying Oppurtinity mainly Dev. Banks for Short term trades only.

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 80
Sunday correction aauchha neaps ma
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Yesterday NEPSE Broke the Resistance of 2136/- surpassed 2040/- mark too and Finally Settled @ 2131.49.

Now 2200/- is the Next Resistance for the Nepse which will also act as the Physological Resistance too.

Once we Break 2200/- Mark on closing Basis, then we will witness the FOMO Rally , Fomo refers to Fear of Missing Out Which can uplift Nepse upto 2440/- Mark.

As the Commercial Bank Index has Rallied 17% From its Low Point indicates and Confirmed Banking Index has formed the Bottom and will continue to Rally.

Among the BFI :-

Finance and Micro Finance has already Given the Bullish Break Out and Devlopment Bank still struggling for the Bullish Break Out.

All those who missed out Rally in Finance and Micro should watch Devlopment Bank Index, once Dev. Banks Index Breaks 4250 Mark on closing Basis then its time to Board the Train.

We are Ready to Deploy Cash in Dev. Bank Sector but just waiting for the Technical Buy Signal.

Let's see Whether it Breaks the 4250 Mark or Not ?? Is a Big Question for Now...

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Today Nepse Broke the Physological Resistance of 2100 mark on closing Basis & Managed to close @ 2115.94/- up by 23.94 Point.

The Next Resitance for NEPSE is @ 2136/-

Once 2136 is Broken then Straight Next Resistance is @ 2200/- only.

Once 2200/- is broken then we will witness the FOMO rally, FOMO refers to Fear of Missing Out Rally. Which could Uplift Nepse upto 2440/- in a matter of few Days only.

Low Cap Dev. BANKS Risk VS Reward Ratio looks very Favourable.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Today is an Important Day to Watch for Devlopment Bank Index.

Devlopment Bank Index is Gearing up for the Second Attempt to give a Potential Bullish Break Out.

Devlopment Bank Index Need to Break 4250/- mark on Closing Basis, Once it Break then we might see a Mega Bull Rally in the Devlopment Bank Index.

Regional Devlopment Bank has the higher Probability to give better returns in terms of Percentage if Bullish Break Out Occurs.

Let's see What Happens today.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Today We witnessed the Technical Glitch in the Trading Application.

The Share Holding Data was not Synced or updated which resulted in Shares Allowed for Sell was in Excess then the Actual.

There could Probable 2 Reasons for it :-

1. A Facility Facilitated to some Traders in an arrangement to Short Sell there Shares whose Delivery is Scheduled for Today which could be Sold only Tomorrow is Allowed to Sell Today itself.

2. Or it just a Technical Glitch then the some General Investor who Sold the shares in Excess by Mistake could become the Victim of the Close Out.

3. Don't Know whether these Event Actually Happened Today or Not ?? Is a Big Question for Now..

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Market already Reacted to Monetary Policy Q3 Review Report.

Whoever were Negative on it has Sold off the Shares and Whoever were +VE has Bought the Shares.

Today We witnessed Strong Turnover of 5.25 Arab along with NEPSE Gaining 45.69 odd Points and has also broken the Major Resistance of 2050/- Forming a Long Bullish Candle.

Now in the Market the Stock Supply Vacuum has been Created as Bear Player are out of Stock and are not in a Position to Give Supply of Shares.

As the Technical Resistance of 2050/- has been Broken Now Bulls are going to be Aggressive in the Market.

The Bull Player might take the Technical Advantage and the Shares Supply Vacuum and if they turn Aggressive tomorrow then Market Might see a total of 6% Upper Circuit followed Phase 1 by 4% Circuit Break, then Followed by Phase 2 of 5% Circuit Break & the Last Phase of 6% Circuit Break as was last witnessed on :-

04 March 2024 // Falgun 21, 2080. It was Monday & tomorrow is Monday Again !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
The Major Topic of Discussion on Monetory Policy Q3 Review is Banks can liqudate upto 20% of their Primary Capital in a Financial Year if the Holding tenure is matured for 1 Year.

Some Says Supply will come some says Demand will Come.

One must not Forget that in the Past NIA had allowed Insurance Companies to Buy upto 15% Shares of Public Lusted Companies.

Currently BFI are Not allowed to Buy Shares of A,B,C & D category BFI, But if you look into Banks Equity Holding Portfolio many Bank has been Holding shares of Micro Finance.

So the Current Provision will allow Banks to exit its Ordinary Shares share Holding of Micro Finance and will make Easy for Insurance Company to Buy those shares provided the Buyer & Seller Agrees to Market Valuation.

Yes the Supply will Come mainly in Micro Finance & Other Holdings if Any within their BFI Sector itself which are likely to be Neutralized by Insurance Companies.

Today's Action & Reaction will be mainly in Micro Finance Sector.

The Other Provision on Risk Weithage Reduction from 125 to 100 in Hire Purchase, Leaverage in Real Estate from 50% to 70% and Revisision in NPA Provision from 1.25% to 1.20% will boost the Overall BFI Earning and Profits.

After the Circular only BFI will take action in its Investment Decesion but Not Today for Sure.

Today's Action and Reaction win the market will be by the General Public Only.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun May 19, 2024 7:41 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7597
Let's hope, Monetary policy would help BFIs stocks.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Looking at the Market Behaviour the Major Flavor of the Market seemed to the Low Cap Stocks only :-

As Low Cap Micro Finance saw Performing 4-5 times more then Large Cap Micro Finance.

Looking at the Data The Regional Devlopment Banks has almost Half of the Paid Up Capital then Finance Companies :-

If Same Market Flavour Continue then we could see Regional Devlopment Banks to be Outperforming the Most like Low Cap based Micro Finance out Performed in the Current week.

So the Conclusion is Low Cap Bikas Bank if it is in your Portfolio then it is HODL if Not then is a Add in the POFO.

Thought of the Day " Trend is Your Friend "

Happy Investment 😊
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Based on the Volume Divergence Indicator, This 5 Scrips should on Trader & Investor Radar which are :-

1. NFS
2. PFL
3. KRBL
4. GRDBL
5. SHINE

HAVE A GOOD DAY .
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Yesterday We Witnessed the Weaker Hand of the Market Exiting their Position who bought Before the Formation of the Morning Star Pattern.

Any Dip in the Market is Basically a Buying Oppurtinity Now.

As the major Capital Appreciation Index Wise will be seen in Bikas Bank & Finance Sector, So the stocks from these 2 Sectors has to be in the Investor Portfolio.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Looking at the Market Behavior and Some Market Moves of Stocks :-

Today i Feel is an Ideal Day to Accumulate Shares from :-

1. Bikas Bank Sector

2. Finance Sector


As i feel these 2 are getting Ready for Next Leg of Up- Move.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2139
Today NEPSE Made a Smart Move Climbing up by 28.62 Points & Finally Settled @ 2027.51/-.

Last Year from 15 May 2023 onwards Market Started a Rally from 1820/- Level onwards to till 2220/-Level which was recorded on 29 June as 30 June 2023 was Friday no Trading Day.

In a Span of 1 & 1/2 Half Month of the English Calendar of Year 2023 from Mid Month of May to End of June Month NEPSE saw a Rally of 400/- Odd Points Approx. a Index Return of 22% on An Average.

If Now NESPE Rallis in the Similar way as seen in the Past in 2023 :-

Lets Assume Starting from Today onwards Considering the Base of 2000/- for the NEPSE to Rally Considering an Index Return of 22% Shows the NEPSE Forecasted Target of 2440/- for the NEPSE by June End.

Currently 2 Index has only Given Bullish Break Out Which are Finance & Micro Finance Sector.

Development Bank Sector is taking baby Step, Step by Step for the Second Attempt to Make a Bullish Break Out Currently moving up Slow and Steady with Consolidations, Once 4250/- Level is Broken on Closing Basis then its a Clear Break Out for Development Banks.

BUY Right Hold Tight for At least 1 Month looking at the Past History & See the Power of Investment !!

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!

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