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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
Yesterday we witnessed a Strong Technical Bounce which was in line with our expectation and Nepse formed an Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart.

Our expection is that this should extend upto 3050-3052 Level on Nepse.

We covered back some of our Short position a bit early on Thursday but covered all our Shorts position on Sunday. As on Sunday we were sitting on 80% cash, Yesterday we Deployed 20% additional cash in the Market and still sitting on 60% Cash at the moments.

Yesterday we bought majorly into Non life Insurance, Micro Finance and some A Class Commercial Banks and few proposition were pumped into Scraps stocks too for Technical Play only to Exit as soon as the delivery of those Scraps stocks in our A/c.

If Nepse Surpass 3050-52 Level by Wednesday then only we expect further upside in Nepse.

Whichever direction the NEPSE goes we feel the Micro Finance Sector to Outperform the most.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 732
small investor - Medium Investor - big investor

small investor becomes medium- medium investor becomes big

seed grows into plant - plant grows into big tree

Some had portfolio of 50 lakhs 15 years back - which increased 10 times - than 100 times

Stock Investor always paid all tax, all commission, and have very transparent transaction

Its natural process - everything strong grows big with time

NRB RULE IS BULLSHIT - Because such rules cannot be brought with so narrow time and so big drops

I AM NOT WITH NRB

I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH NEPSE - WHETHER NEPSE GOES DOWN 2000 OR CROSSES 3200

BUT NRB HAS GONE TOOOOOOOOOO MUCH IRRESPONSIBLE
AND SUCH HARSH POLICY ALL OF A SUDDEN WITH SO NARROW TIME & BIG DROPS

Such policy sud be gradual

#AGAINST-NRB

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
Yes were sitting on 85% Cash but now we are sitting on 80% cash as yesterday we deployed 5% cash in the Market after Market resumed tradeing after hitting 5% Lower Circuit. Another 5% worth Cash Deployment Buy order remained pending as our Buy orders didn't got filled by the Sellers. Let's see whether the Buy Order at those rates will get filled today or not or we need to increase our Bid Rates.

Yes we did Short Sell in these below mentioned 5 Micro Scrips too, which were covered back in last 2 trading session i.e Thursday & Sunday, slight Mistake has happened we should not have covered back 50% on Thursday but should have covered back 100% yesterday, But as the Rate was Lucrative on Thursday itself that tempted us to Partially Cover our Short Position.

Yesterday we bought mainly into Micro Finance Sector, Non Life Insurance Sector & few Commercial Banks only.

We Continue to avoid Hydropower, Finance & Devlopement Banks as these 3 Sector don't have the Tendency to reclaim its Previous High but has the tendecy to make Lower Low & Lower Highs only. and these Sector will Continue to Drag down the Nepse in upcoming days too thus limiting the Maximum High Range for NEPSE till 3056/- Level.

If NEPSE breaks 2752/- Level then there will further Huge Cry among the Share Holder of these 3 Sectors which are Hydropower, Finance & Devlopement Banks.

We continue to maintain the Price Target of below mentined Micro Finance too.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:25 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1743
Aug 26
We have initated a Buy Call rating on 5 Micro Finance Scrips with the Potential Target for the Short Term which are as follows :-
1. BUY RSDC (CMP - 1033) for the Target of 1600/-
2. BUY FMDBL (CMP- 1192) for the Target of 1600/-
3. BUY RMDC (CMP - 1692 ) for the Target of 2400/-
4. BUY SKBBL (CMP - 1975) for the Target of 3200/-
5. BUY NUBL ( CMP - 1673) for the Target of 3200/-

Now sitting on 85% cash :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
As the market as already hit 5% lower circuit level and is under 40 Min cool off time.

I am Sitting on 85% Cash and planning to Deploy 10-15 % Cash in the Market, I will be Preferring Micro Finance & Non Life Insurance as first choice pick in this Fall.

As they were Performer in Bear Market too.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Sep 2014
Posts: 46
what the hell!!!!
how long will this downfall continue?????
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
At Current Juncture overall the NEPSE is in Over Sold Zone, The Oversold Sector are A Class Commercial banks, Micro Finance, Non life Insurance and Life Insurance.

But Hydro, Finance and Bikas Bank Technically continue to remain weak on Charts.

Among these 3 Hydro Power has broken the Major support of 3400/- thus strong Downside likely to continue further in Hydro Power Sector and if any immediate technical Bounce back happens in Hydro Power that will get limited to 3395/- level.

Avoid Hydro if any Technical Bounce back is seen, as it is not supported by strong Fundamental.

Instead you can opt for Micro Finance and Non Life Insurance as these 2 Sector has a track record of Performing during Bear market too.

Disclosure : I'm only 15% invested in market and 85% sitting on cash. Out of 15%, 5% was added in the last Trading session.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:07 am. »
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 90
Ab palo good fundamental wala company kai ho jasto lagchha tara ke garne bazar bounce huda KKHC ma circuit lagchha Nabil 1 rupiya badchha ,,, Bidhi ko bidambanaa,,,,, NLIC ta patta saf bhai sakyo
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
Most of the Quality Stock Picking Ideas are their in the Company Balance Sheet itself.

But People are under illusion that Stock Picking Ideas are there in the Club House, Face Book, Tik Tok, You Tube and Non Line Media.

Stick to quality Stocks which are backed by Strong Fundamental, Sooner or later ultimately that will be only the winner.

It's a Marathon race, First 1000 meter someone is leading and leading ahead doesn't mean he is winner the Person who complete the Finishing line is an ultimate Winner.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
After every fall the mood of the market changes and Yesterday we witnessed Portfolio Churning by the Investor and Trader.

Now the Smart Investor and Trader are Buying Scrips which are backed by Strong FUNDAMENTALS and slow and Steady are exiting the stocks which are not backed by strong Fundamental.

They could not exit immediately too as immediate exit could lead to Crash in the Price of the Non Fundamental based companies.

Hydro Scrips Continue to fall once HYDRO INDEX BREAKS 3400/- marks then again Next round of Free Fall will emerge in Hydro Scrips, Avoid Hydro..

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
NEPSE has aleaday Broken the Support 1 @ 3060 , Then Support 2 @ 2985 & Now the Final Support stands @ 2956/-

NEPSE should not Violet 2956/- which is a Very Crucial Support Level.

Today i will be watching the Market if Market Continue to Hold above 14 Point Premium to Support Level of 2956 i.e @ 2970/- till 12:00 Noon then i would be going for the Fresh Purchase in the Market and my first Choice will be Micro Finance Sector.

Among the Non Wholesale Micro my favourate Stock is NUBL (Nirdhan Utthan)

Among the Wholesale Micro my favourate stock is SKBBL (Sana Kissan)

Hydro Power Sector has a very Crucial Support Zone @ 3400 Level. A break below 3400/- Mark in Hydro INDEX will Trigger Next Round of Free Fall in Hydro Scrips, with Next Support Zone pegged @ 3185/-. Cautious approch is advised in Hydro Scrips.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
NEPSE has broken the Support of 3060/-, Which states the Downfall to Continue with Next Line of Support Pegged @ 2985/-

During the Downfall the High Beta Stocks are Likely to Fall Fast and furious with Lower Circuit Level hitting Kind of Fall which are likely to be from the Hydro Power, Devlopement Bank & Finance Sector.

Don't try to Fish the Stocks from these 3 Sectors. Else you will burn your Fingers !!

We could witness some sort of Artifical Price Maintance in these 3 Sectors by some Players, However Artfical Price Maintance they Keep the Market will follow its Natural Course.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 90
Hope microfinance will go up from today, life insurance also need to go up as well ...
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The Book Close of SFMF (Sunrise Fist Mutual Fund ) 50% Cash Dividend is 15 Bhadra 2078 !!

Let see how it moves before Book Close !!


Eagerly Awaiting for NUBL (Nirdhan Utthan) Dividend Announcement to Re-rate Micro Finance !!

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:47 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The NEPSE lost more the 100+ Points in just 2 trading Session, Now The immediate Support for NEPSE INDEX is Pegged @ 3060/- Level.

Yesterday we witnessed Relief Rally in some of the Hydro Scrips and in some Hydro Scrips there is a Continuation of the Free Fall, I Continue to have a Bearish View in Overall Hydro Power Scrips Except 2 which are AKPL (Arun Kabeli) & MEN (Mountain Energy).

We have initated a Buy Call rating on 5 Micro Finance Scrips with the Potential Target for the Short Term which are as follows :-

1. BUY RSDC (CMP - 1033) for the Target of 1600/-
2. BUY FMDBL (CMP- 1192) for the Target of 1600/-
3. BUY RMDC (CMP - 1692 ) for the Target of 2400/-
4. BUY SKBBL (CMP - 1975) for the Target of 3200/-
5. BUY NUBL ( CMP - 1673) for the Target of 3200/-

It's an Ideal time for those Investor Who Bought Finance & Devlopement Bank Scrips when Buy Recommendation was Given by me @ 145-180 Level for Target of 450-500 Level, Infact the Price has hit Beyond those Levels too.

I Remember Many Messaged me at that Point "Sir ! Tetro Target Pugla ra ?? " And My Answer was YESSSSS !!

Now it's an Ideal time to SWAP their Finance & Devlopement banks Scrips with Micro Finance, If they are Still Holding them.


Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:56 am. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 137
Yes dipak ji, with my trend line skill, i found r is common which might act as strong support.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 842
@deepak ji,

With my technical skills, i found that there is O letter common in both.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1743
:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
Rome was Not Built in a Day !!

But Hiroshima was Destroyed in a Minute !!

What is Comman Between Hiroshima & Hydro !!

I found the Letter H Only , Does anyone found anything Else ??


Just be Careful of the Hydro Scrips Which are like a falling Knife !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1743
"लहरो तान्दा पहरो"

HYDRO will not fall alone. What will be the IMPACT of falling HYDRO to MUTUAL FUND NAV, other income of BANK which was more than 21% in last FY (even more for development banks and finance companies). Insurance companies are also GREAT ACCUMULATORS of HYDRO Scripts. So what will be the net result in primary INDEX ?

HYDRO अगर जाएगा तो सबको साथ् लेकर
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
According to the Data updates some of the BIG & the BIGYA Investor are stuck in the Hydro Power Sector !!

Hydros moved up based on the Technical Setup and Hydro made a free fall based on the Technical Setup too.

The Technical Setup are not in the favour of Hydro Power Scrips.

Now we are likely to see the follow on Selling in Hydro Power Sector as many were unabe to Sell the Hydro Power Scrips despite the Lower Circuit Level as there were no Buyers, Apart from that there were other group of Investor and trader who could not sell their Hydro Scrips as the share bought by them has not yet been credited to their Demat A/c as the Settlement Cycle are still not Completed.

The Free fall continuation in Hydro Power is likely to drag down the NEPSE to below 3100/- Mark in upcoming tradeing Session.

At the Current Juncture Hydro Power Sector is like a Falling Knife, don't try to catch the Falling knife, else you will get injured.

But even if you still want to Buy the Hydro Scrips then let the free fall process get over, let it get stabalized and await for the bottom formation to get completed !!

But if you ask me whether if i will buy at the Current fallen Price of hydros then my answer is a Big No................., I won't be buying even at 50% discounted rate of the Current Price.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:31 pm. »
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 20
thank you Deepak ji
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 13
very accurate analysis of the status of companies. Appreciate!!
_______________
कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The Preview on some the Technical aspects of the Hydro Power Scrips Which are Randomly Selected :-

1. HDHPC (Himal Dolakha ) Shooting Star Pattern has been Confirmed and a Clear Down trend on Card.

2. AHPC (Arun Valley) Doji is formed, Bull & Bear fight is on, Still undecisive has tendency to move either side.

3. API (API Power ) Trading near Support Zone of 602/-, A Level to be Watched, Once Broken Further Downside to Continue, Else likely to trade Sideways.

4. NHPC (National Hydro) Shooting star Pattern is Formed, Further Downside to Continue.

5. NGPL (Ngadi Group Hydropower) : Support 1 & Support 2 Both are Broken Further Downside to Continue.

6. UPPER (Upper Tamakoshi) Trading sideways near its Support Level of 779 once Broken Further Downside to Continue

7. MEN (Mountain Enery) Bullish Flag Pattern in continuation Further Upside is Expected for the TGT of 1620/-

8. UMHL ( United Modi) Shooting star pattern is formed further Down side to Continue .

9. BPCL (Butwol Power) Trading sideways near Support Zone of 605/- Once Support Broken Futher downside to Continue.

10. KKHC (Khani Khola) Doji Formation, Followed by Bearish breakdown, Free Fall to Continue on Card.


Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
Now This will be my New Thread :-

What should be the Next Stragety in the Market ???

NEPSE ALREADY HIT THE PROJECTED TARGET OF 3200/- AS PREDICTED.

THERE IS NO FURTHER UPGRADE ON NEPSE TARGET BY US AS THERE IS LESS TRIGGER FOR THE BULLS EXPECT THE DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT EVENTS.

LIFE INSURANCE SECTOR THE ACTUARY PROCESS IS PRETTY LONG SO THERE WILL BE STRONG DELAY IN PUBLISH OF AUDITED REPORTS.


NON- LIFE INSURANCE THE CORONA CLAIM HANGOVER STILL PRESIST.

HYDRO POWER : HOWEVER GOOD THE EPS IS PUBLISHED COMPARED TO PAST, THE REVENUE IS STILL NOT BACKED BY CORE BUSINESS INCOME, BUT JUST A SHORT TERM SUPPORT BY SALES OF ASSETS ONLY.

MICRO FINANCE : DESPITE 1.3% Provision still the Profit looks Good.

BIKAS BANK AND FINANCE : HAS BECOME AN ALTERNATIVE FOR COMMERCIAL BANK HOLDER TO SWAP COMMERCIAL BANK WITH BIKAS BANK & FINANCE.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!

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