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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Yesterday we witnessed a 50+ Point Rally on Nepse on News cover that 5% & 7.5% is the Final Tax.

But until on unless the above statement is not amended in the Income Tax 2058 or by some other mean as per the Provision/Clause mentioned in the Income Tax 2058 it's difficult to Trust the same has been incorporated. Any Legal Person in the Group can further elaborate on it.

We continue to remain in the Bear Market as Fundamental aspects
has not changed yet for the Economy.

The Central Bank Continue to issue Treasury Bills to Raise money for the Goverment expenditures.

The Market continues to give Hopes for the end of the Bear market but again Kills Hope's of the General Investor.

Let's see what is destination for the Nepse. We Continue to have the Bearish View on Nepse for the Target of 1652/-.

After Pre Budget exit from the market we continue to remain in side line, Some were teasing me Tapai ko Train Chutiyo.

My Reply was Is it the Coromandel Express I Missed ?? 🤣

Happy Trading !! Enjoy the Day.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
1845-1848/- is the immediate support zone for the NEPSE.

Yesterday it took support near that Zone but 1845-48 is not the major support zone but a immediate support zone only.

After that the Next Immidiate support Zone for Nepse stands @1818/-.

Since the last 3 trading session we have Witnessed the free fall in the Market just like a falling knife, Anything on its way is destroyed.

If we break 1845 level in todays session then the free fall is likely to Continue till 1818/-. Which is the Next immediate support zone.

A break of 1818/- level means a Next level of Panic will be created in the Market.

Before Budget we have exited 98% of our previous Buy Position just holding 2% only at the moment as we didn't know what will be the outcome from the Budget, thus exited our Position.

General Advise : Take that much Risk only which you can afford to take. Don't gamble with your hard earned money.

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:46 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
As said earlier the Market will remain Volatile on a Day before Budget and a Day after the Budget.

And we witnessed strong Volatility on 14 & 16 Jestha.

On a Daily Chart the Market has Confirmed A shooting Star Pattern which hints there is More Room for Downward momentum to Contine.

1845-48 is likely to be Support Zone for the Nepse.

The Budget made us Disaapint as there was no Increment in the 1% Tax limit which Remained at 600k as the Market was expecting for 800k Limit for 1% Tax Limit.

Due to this the Appetite for Life Insurance Products is unlikely to increase and EMI paying capacity of Salaried Individuals also unlikely to increase, which will impact the overall reduction in the consumer demands for multiple Commodities and Apparel Products.

Shutter Khali xa will continue to Dominate in the Properties market.

The Hike in collage and School fees likely to hit the Pocket of General Public which will impact many General Public.

Now we have withdrawn our earlier statement of Nepse Index that it has formed the Bottom.

Now we have Downgraded the Nepse for the Target of 1652/-

The Golden support Level.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
As said in the Past the Rally will continue till 1929-1938 Zone and today the said range is achieved as the Nepse closed @ 1942.63.

One day Prior to Budget i.e 14 jesta and day after the budget I.e 16 jestha is likely to remain Volatile.

As the Budget day is on 15 jestha which is a holiday on ocassion of Republic Day.

Any Buy Tomorrow onwards will be a Bit Risky in Nature and scheduled delivery of shares will be available for trading on the volatile day only.

Before buying one must understand by when their bought shares will be credited in their Demat A/c.

After the Rally we also expect the Profit booking session and from Tomorrow onwards profit booking is likely to start.

The talks about the liquidity of kharab amount in next 2 months which is talked by the Nepal Banker Association will be basically the Income Tax Payment paid by corporate business House's till ashad end.

That liquidity will be IN and OUT in very shrt time frame.

Today onwards we have started liquidating our Position and will exit 98% by Thursday.

After Budget will Re-evalute the prospective on the equity investment.

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Thought of the Day with reference to Water.

Jasma xa, Safa Pani tesmai xa Lagani.

Jasma xa For Pani tesma xaina Lagani.

Just for FUN.😃😃
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
On 16 May 2023 (Tuesday) Nepse made a Tweezer Bottom on Daily Chart and we witnessed a rally in the Nepse for 2 consecutive trading session.

Similar way MKHL ( Mai Khola) has also formed the Tweezer Bottom on 18 May 2023 (Thursday ) on Daily Chart, Though till date the Chart data is for 3 trading session only.

Let's see what is Next for the Market.

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
We have Witnessed 2 days of strong upmove in the Nepse ahead of the Budget.

This is a Pre-Budget Rally seen the Market with some sort of expecting from the Investor from the FM.

This Rally is likely to Continue till 1929-1938 Zone.

Few stocks were added among the old which were backed by strong Fundamentals.

Among the 2 listed new scrips 000 kitta were added as required volume of liquidity was not seen, may be on Sunday we will get the volume.

After the Budget speech will decide whether to add more or to reduce the holdings or to remain invested in whatever is bought among the old stocks.

I have expectation from the Budget in mainly 4 Sectors among the Nepse listed segments.

Life Insurance, Trading, Hotels and Hydro Power (Among Hydro which are backed by strong Fundamental only,)

TAX relief to Salaried Individual will boost demand for Domestic Tourism, FMCG consumption, Life Style goods, Electric consumption based Consumer Durables and Life Insurance Products.

Fly Dubai is now @ Bhairawa Sky @ 28000 feet height.

Happy Investment !
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Fri May 19, 2023 6:49 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
My Investment theme for 2080 is not a specific or Particular sector for sure but individual stock specific only.


My buying intrest will be in New Companies only which are backed by strong Fundamental and among them 2 has already got listed.

1. ANLB
2. MKHL

I won't be interested in Buying Old listed companies except the Scenerio the valuation is very attractive based on the Bull or Bear Cycle.

Waiting for more Companies to get listed in Multiple Sectors.

Sabhasad pani Naya khojeko among then few had already become the Member of the Parliament Symalteniously Stock pani Naya khojeko.

Happy Investment with a New theme !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu May 18, 2023 7:38 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Slight update Mutual Fund Sold Off Approx 15K Kitta in 2 days out of approx 76K Kitta in FLY Dubai.

Which is Said to flying Above Dharke :mrgreen: :mrgreen:


Well well @ Rising Sun i Have no Insider Info About Mai Khola (MKHL).

If Anything interesting comes about the Company, then it will be just a mere Coincidence Only. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed May 17, 2023 5:47 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7384
If Deepak ji is buying means you must have insider info. What could be the development we get to see soon???
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Today Added Additional 5000 Kitta of MKHL (Mai Khola) @ 274.5 and Previous it was 1000 kitta @ 301.50/-

Total 6000 Kitta added in 2 days @ 279 excluding Broker Commission.

In terms of Nepse Todays Top Looser it was was Ranked 1.

In terms Todays NEPSE Top Turnover it was Ranked 5.

In terms of Todays NEPSE Volume it was Ranked 7.

But And in Terms of Transaction it was Ranked 1.

Mutual Fund Sold off approx. 9K Kitta out of their 76K Kitta Holdings.

At the current Juncture it's just like a FLY Dubai flight which took off from the Kathmandu for Dubai.

Currently it's Circling around TIA. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
To Remove my Itching Hand, Today I Bought MKHL (Mai Khola Hydropower) just 1000 Kitta only @ 301.50/- .

A 10% Lower Circuit Level from the Listing Price of 335/-.

It's a Low Cap Hydro Power Company with Super Mai Cascade Hydropower Project.

Total Share issued to General Public on Baisakh 08 (2080) is 12,69.411/- Kitta Approx. 12.69 Lakh Kitta.

All Nepalese Mutual Fund together hold approx. 76K Kitta only after allotment as on Today.

Rest All 10 Kitta Holder Investor Only.

The Company has declared a Dividend of 10% in Financial year 2078-79 and is on +VE on Reserve & Surplus Status,


Among the Hydro Stocks based on Reserve & Surplus, Dividend Paying & Low Supply of shares in the Market could be a good Speculative Bet for Good Capital Appreciation.

Today based on Market Depth figure the Total Supply of the stock was seen for 25K Kitta Approx. As Many Retail Investor wanted to Book Profit on the Listing Gain of the share.

If a Small Amount of Speculative Buying Interest emerges in this stock then It could give a Good Capital Appreciation.


Disclosure : This is for a study Purpose only and one should not consider it as an Investment or Trading Recommendation or Advice. One must consult an Expert, an Adviser or CA before making any Financial Decision.

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue May 16, 2023 5:35 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
TODAY ADDED MKHL (MKHL) 1000 KITTA @ -10% LOWER CIRCUIT LEVEL @301.50.

It's a Pure Speculative Bet only.

Though I don't like Hydro Stocks 😁😁

Just to remove my itching hand only.

Happy Trading
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
The Update Report on DHPL (Dibyashwari Hydropower Limited) is Published :-

Net-worth Per Share as on Q2 was 12.69 Now Net-worth Per share as on Q3 is 6.73

Paid up capital stand @ 26.40 crore as in Q3. No changes.

Reserve stands as on Q2 was Minus 23.05 crores and as on Q3 is Minus 24.62 crores.

Equity Left to to get exhausted to be called as Bankrupt Company is 1.78 Crores.

I Personally feel this Company should be Delisted from NEPSE.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Upcoming AGM of most Hydro Power Companies will be limited to Chiya and Biscuit only ??

Or on addition to it, it will Right Share too ??

😃😃😃
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
The Market continue to trade sideways with Negative Bias.

The Hydro Index will act as the main Culprit for Dragging Down the Nepse below 1800/- Mark.

But there won't be Free Fall in Hydro sector but will be slow and steady in Nature.

But some Hydro being a High beta stocks could witness a fall in higher %% then the fall in Index.

Major time has passed for cleaning the debt ridden Hydro stocks from the Portfolio but still not late too.

As Hydro stocks purchase are not backed by bank loan thus free fall is not possible except for the Reason on Stop-loss module on breaking certain Technical level.

It will take 6-12 months to adjust its price based on its Fundamental factors.

Regular Dividend paying stocks in Hydro can be kept in the Portfolio but companies with book value below 88 should be cleaned from the Portfolio.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
Renewal of Treasury Bills
And Internal Borrowings Of Government TO GIVE SALARY TO GOVT EMPLOYEES
||||||||||||||||
Is a Deep Sign Of Worry


FEDERAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE CANCELLED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE


.......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA......
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
The 90 Point Rally on 12 April 2023 gave me a good Oppurtinity to Exit to My position which was bought on 26 Feb 2023.

Though my Exit was on Marginal loss of 1% compared to 6% MTM loss seen after Purchase of Shares.

The Frequent issues of Treasury Bill by The Central Bank worth Billions again and again is a sign of worry for me.

So I Prefered safe landing.

Will wait for the Annual Budget before taking any fresh decesion on the market.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
I was going through the Un-audited financial Report as on Poush masanta 2079 of DHPL (Dibyashwari Hydropower Limited)

The Current Networth as on Poush end stand @ 12.69

There is Continious Cash Burn due to higher Finance Expense.

Paid up capital stand @ 26.40 crore.

Reserve stands @ Minus -23 crores.

If Company Management doesn't take a quick appropriate steps then it might get Bankrupt in coming few quarters.

I personally have a sell call rating for the TGT of 22/-

Disclosure:- This is just a personal study report only and one might take a proper consultation from the Financial Advisor or CA or who has expertise in the Capital Market before making any financial Decesion. As equity market is subjected to Market Risk.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
I Last Purchased on 26 FEB 2023 from 1970-2000 Level of NEPSE just a Single Day Purchase only.

Today NEPSE Closed @ 1866.68 down by 5.20 Points.

Currently i am Sitting on an average 6% MTM Loss at the Moment !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Though that was just a Value Buy Only for us.

Evaluating whether to Add Now or Later, As some have started talking about 1600/- odd Levels on NEPSE.

1801-1810 level there could my Support Buy for the NEPSE to check the Strength of the Market at those Levels.

Happy Trading !
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
We are seeing Early sign of Stop-loss in action in Real Estate Prices.

Is it just the beginning of Bear engulfing in Real Estate Market.


What are your Openions ??
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
EVERY QUARTER ON QUARTER BASIS, THE BALANCE SHEET OF UPPER IS GETTING WORSE.

NOW NETWORTH @64 AS ON Q2 OF 79-80.

IS THIS IS GOING TO BECOME THE NEXT GORAKH KALI ??

REVENUE IS GROWING SLOWLY.

BUT ADMIN AND OPERATION EXPENSE IS GROWING AT FAST PACE FOLLOWED BY STRONG FINANCE COST.

@460/- IS THIS WORTH BUYING THE 35% ALREADY SINKED SHIP.
??
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
After Remaining in the side line for 20 Odd Months !

Today We initiated our First Shree Ganesh in the Market.

As the NEPSE has fallen Drastically in the Morning session, We believed it was Very Good Opportunity for us to buy in the Dip, And Today Dip was utilized by us as the Buying Opportunity.


Though we are Not Bullish in the Market, But the dip is used as the Value buy Opportunity by us.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Bull Not Confirmed Yet.

But Bottom is Confirmed.

Any Dip in Price should be used as a Buying Oppurtnity as Downward Risk is Limited Now and Upside Reward is More.

Currently we are advising Investment in Hall Mark Gold. The Impact on Gold Demand has Resulted INR NPR Grey Market rate @ 100:155-157 from Earlier Rate of 100:163-165.

If Russia start accepting Gold for Oil then Gold is likely to Sky Rocket from the Current Level.

Let's see What is Next...

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