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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 163
I predicted$ 90 dollar oil by EOY 2021, and $120 by summer 2022. But, the price arrived few months early. Even without Russia, oil was bound to get to $120 by summer. US rig counts still lesser than 2019. US shale companies have managed capex and most of them have maintained production discipline. OPEC is loving this price. Saudi needs 80 dollar per barrel to balance its budget. Also, the Crown Prince wants to build NOEM, he needs hundreds of billions of dollars for it.
US Oil inventory is almost at 5 years low. Summer is the time of travel and construction. Lots of oil will be consumed by heavy machineries used during construction.
Western countries are shutting down nuclear reactors due to Green opposition. Even US is in the process of shutting down some nuclear reactors. Germany stupidly shut its reactors recently.
Air traffic still hasn't reached pre covid level. This summer may see huge air travel demand.
Huge demands for rare earth metals used in electronic/communication devices mean more oil consumption, as mining rigs/plowers/dumpers are run using oil.
More EV means more usage of copper/steel/nickel/lithium. More mining, more oil is needed.
As Russia oil supplies go away, OPEC will be found naked as their hyped spare capacity is just a hype.
There hasn't been big oil discoveries in the last 10 years, if you discount Guyana. Only quick fix to this problem is US oil shale and Canadian heavy oil.
As you know the US has democrats who are allergic to fossil fuel in power, US shale may not be motivated to drill more. Biden blocked Keystone pipeline which would carry Canadian heavy oil to the US Gulf from where it could be exported. Many US Shale oil companies faced bankruptcies due to overproduction circa 2014-2016. Banks, private equities are not running to fund exploration like they did last time. On top of it, many pension funds, University endowments, sovereign funds are divesting from fossil fuels. Oil companies shares haven't gone up commensurate with oil prices.
Hence, the companies are enjoying record prices, mending balance sheets, increasing dividends and buying back shares. CAPEX is just to maintain level production.


This commodity inflation cycle will bring hurt to middle/lower class folks around the world. Wheat is up 80% in the last week. CORN about 30%. There may be riots in Middle East and even India/Pakistan/Bangladesh as food price rises more than wages.

Countries will stop exporting grains here soon. Hungary already doing so.

Remember last time when India stopped exporting onions? This time its gonna be daily staples.
« Last edit by simrik on Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:16 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
Today a Strong GAP up opening of approx 5% was seen in Crude Oil Prices against Previous Close of 115.68$.

After hitting the Intraday High of 130.50 $ Mark Currently trading @ 124.21 Still Up by Approx 7.3%.

Last Year in March 2021 it traded in Price range of 57.25$ - 67.98$ Mark.

Considering 57.25$ as base Price Friday Close Price itself suggest a increment of 102% in Crude Oil Prices.

NOC (Nepal Oil Corporation) is getting Oil & Gas from its Indian Counterpart at Price derived from Crude Purchased @ 88$ Barrel Mark.

The Nepal Goverment need to reduce the Tax on Oil & Gas to a great extent, the only way to combat further appreciation in the Price of Oil & Gas. If there is further Rise in Oil & Gas Prices then the Retail Inflation will rise.

Lets see the Current Goverment instance on Inflation. But one thing is Sure Huge money/Liqudity will be sucked from our Banking system in the Name of Oil & Gas. The liqudity Crisis will continue to Haunt the NEPSE Bulls.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The Nepse immediate support is Pegged @2520.

That doesn't mean Market downfall trend is over.

The down fall is likely to witness some sort of relief rally.

Some relief are also the Part of the market cycle in downfall too.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1743
अब पनि सरकार र पुंजी बजारसंग सम्बन्धित निकाएले चाडै नै पुंजी बजारको बिकाशको लागि ठोस कार्य (जस्तै :बैंकलाई ब्रोकर लाईसेन्स , DEMAT Account र Bank Account integration , margin lending ,derivative product) नगर्ने हो भने केहि समय पछि विदेशमा काम गरेर नेपालमा रेमिटान्स पठाउने कार्य उलेख्य रुपमा घट्ने निश्चित छ, किनभने सर्बसाधारण लगानीकर्ताले नेपालको पुंजी बजारमा आफ्नो रगत पसिनाको कमाई लगानी गर्नलाई हदै सम्मको दुख कष्ट भोग्नु परेको छ। । पुंजी बजार संग सम्बन्धित निकायले अब भाषण बाजीमा समय बिताउने हो र लगानीकर्ताले महशुस गर्ने कार्य नगर्ने हो भने अहिले नै आर्थिक संकट क्लाइमेक्समा पुगिसकेको छ, यहाँभन्दा माथि गयो भने विस्फोटनको तहमा अर्थतन्त्र पुग्छ |
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 732
LET ME ADD FEW MORE POINTS - HOW WAR IS DEEP CONCERN TO RUSSIA

ECONOMIC PROFITS
1 - After Ukraine Spiltted from Russia, The Russia Had to pay billion of dollars as tariffs for pipelines that passess Ukraine for supply of petro-gas to EU & OTHER COUNTRY - ALL BILLION DOLLAR IS NET SAVING TO RUSSIA AFTER INVASION

2- BLACK SEA & CRIMEA AREA seems to contain 2 trillion cubic meter of natural gas - RUSSIA ALREADY INVADED CRIMEA

3 -DONBASS region also have been found to have rich deposit of petroleum & gas reserves in mid 2020 - RUSSIA hence already INVADED THE REGION NOW


POLITICAL PROFITS
1- BELARUS will be encircled by three sides by Russia after invasion
2- CRIMEA & BLACK SEA PORT will be the only non-freezing advantageous port for RUSSIA and Russia can build bridge to connect its Mainland to Crimea and will give strategic geopolitical advantage as well as economic advantage
3- After Ukraine Invasion, Russia can easily take grip of MOLDOVA
4- After UKRAINE INVASION, RUSIIA will be able to form IRON CURTAIN against US & EU (NATO)
5- CRIMEA NEEDS fresh water which comes from North Crimean Canal which was built in Soviet Era which ukraine cut after CRIMEA INVASION - BUT after ukraine invasaion the water supply will be continuous

REAL CAUSE OF WAR
1 - US & EU poking Russia since last 20 years by expanding NATO continuously despite RUSSIA repeated appeal not to do so
2- US & EU trying to encircle RUSSIA since last 20 years
3 - US Fights with country in IRAN, far FAR from its land, showing SECURITY CONCERN (Not Justifiable)... RUSSIA invading UKRRAINE showing Security Concern (Justifiable Compared To US Unjustified Invasions).....

ALWAYS IN FAVOR OF PEACE
MAY PEACE PREVAIL AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:59 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1743
Russia export nearly 6 million barrel of crude oil each day. Price of crude oil is already above 115$ (Brent Crude is trading above 117$ now). One can easily calculate there earning per day from oil/gas only. (more than 80 billion NRS /day). Untill and unless WEST ban russian oil/gas, there economy will not get severely affected.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
Estimated 30 Arab NPR (3000 Crore) is spent per Day by the Russian Army towards the Russia Ukraine War.

Amount and assets worth 683 Billion USD is under freeze overseas till now of the Russian Central Bank and other combined Togather. The estimated size is 1366 times the MCC fund Committed to Nepal.

The freeze of asset and cash Figure is likely to Surpass 1000 Billion $$$.

The asset and Cash freeze is likely to anger further to Mr. PUTIN.

Let's see what all happens in coming days

Enjoy the weekend !!
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 163
Looking at NEPSE deeply, what are the frothiest stocks?
Member
Registered: Jan 2017
Posts: 48
As the share price is going down, I am increasing my portfolio toucha toucha:)
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The Intrest Rate in Russia has Skyrocked by 110%

Earlier the Intrest Rate was @9.5% & Current Intrest Rate stand @20%.

All measure are taken to Combat Inflation, to Preserve its Forex Reserve and to fight its depreciation of its Rouble against major currencies.

Election Day announced and Nepse took a Downward Journey.

MCC passed Hydropower Sector took a Downward Journey.

Now what is Next ??

Technically on Chart too Nepse looking weak.

Below 2300 some Value buying Intrest will emerge.

Below 2100 Forceful Selling could emerge !!

We Continue to remain in sideline as said earlier and we are likely to watch the Market Behaviour till Chaitra End !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
On a Weekly Basis Russian Stock Market has crashed upto 56% and still down 32% Down on Weekly Basis.

It was Thursday When Russia Invasion started on Ukraine and on that day Russian Stock Market crashed upto 50% in a Single Day.

Today there is MCC Event again in the Parliament which will continue to Make NEPSE Volatile in Todays Trading Session, Which is just a Physological Impact only.

If MCC get Passed then also there will be pain in the Liqudity in the Market.

If MCC get Failed then also there will be pain in the Liqudity in the Market.

For Investor & Trader MCC is just like " Kak lai Bail Pakyo, Na Harsha na Ullas."


But My Personal View the MCC should be rejected by the Goverment, It is not going to bring any Extra Ordinary Reform in our Economy, But might Put us in Political & Diplomatic Crisis only.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:01 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6148
Good example, Reuters- propaganda machine. :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
What to do Bro Whenever I am free I try to learn and gain knowledge as much as Possible.

Just like a reuters analyst hungry for all kinds of financial events.

🤣🤣🤣
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 842
You have too much free time !!!
:oops: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
OH MY GOD !

The Russian Stock Market INDEX RTSI Crashed upto 17% in a Single Day.

Finally RTSI Closed Down by 13.21%

Last time in the evening when i checked after hitting 10% Lower Circuit, The Trade was Halted

Then When Again When the Market Resume tradng it was trading 8% Down.

Again after a while it Hit the 15% Lower Circuit Filter again the Market trading was Halted.

Again Trading was Resume then it went down upto 17% and Finally Close 13.21% Down.

NEPSE Circuit Break Rule are :-

1. 4% Before 12:00 Noon then 20 Min Halt.
2. 5% Before 01:00 PM then 40 Min Halt.
3. 6% Before 03:00 PM trading suspended for the day.

Is this the latest Circuit Break Rule or there has been changes ??

When was the Last Date when we Hit 6% Circuit Level ?? Was it 14 DEC 2021 ??
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
First NEPSE Broke 2800/- in Phase 1.

Then NEPSE Broke 2750/- Level in Phase 2.

Now NEPSE has broken 2700/- Level in Phase 3.

Technically NEPSE is breaking all Physological Level as the Day Passes.

Now one Big Downfall of 102 points approx is Expected in a Single Day as per the Chart Structure of NEPSE.

Which Day of this Week it will Happen is a Big Trick at the Moment.

Investor Should wait for the Next Table Date for the Parliament Session at the moment !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The most Awaited Monetory Policy is Out !!

Technically NEPSE is below 2800/- and 2750 Mark !!

As said earlier and Continue to say now too a break below 2750/- level will lead towards fast and Furious fall of Nepse till level below 2300/-.

The Bear were waiting for the Trigger and Now the Trigger is the Rising Intrest Rate, Bank Rate saw a huge spike from 500 Bps to 700 Bps .

A skyrocket rise of 40%.

Hydropower Sector and Micro Finance Sector will be impacted the most due to Rise in Bank Rates.

More Yet to Evaluate on the impact of Monetory Policy,

MCC should be Rejected by the Government of Nepal, though it has some economic Benifit, But MCC will bring unnecessary Problem and instability.

We can Change our Economy Challanges but we cannot change our Neighbour.

India and China will continue to remain our Neighbour,

No act should be exercised by Nepal which should upset our Giant Neighbours. Which are among the Super Power Nation. One with Veto Power another in Process of becoming the Veto Power Nation.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Feb 20, 2022 7:01 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
If Russia Ukraine War emerge then one Commodity which is likely to give the Highest Return in Year 2022.

The Commodity likely to Outperfm in the Crisis is Silver.

Russia Ukraine War will benefit the Economy of Countries like :-

Mexico, Peru, Australia & Chile !!

China, Russia and Poland which are major Producer of Silver are likely to see Record Low Production of Silver if Russia Ukraine War Start.

If War escalates beyond Russia and Ukraine then Silver is likely to act as an major alternative Currency.

Per Tola Price of Silver Currently stand @ 1280 NPR.

Based on current Setup we have Price Forcast of Silver @2000/- Per Tola in Medium Term.

The Central Bank should also exercise to increase its holding in Silver through International market to Fight against Upcoming Crisis.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:49 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The Central Bank has Published the 6 Month Financial Indicators :-

पुस मसान्तमा चालु खाता ३५४ अर्ब ७ करोडले घाटामा छ । अघिल्लो वर्षको सोही अवधिमा चालु खाता ५१ अर्ब ६८ करोडले घाटामा रहेको थियो ।

पुस मसान्तसम्म विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चिति १६.७ प्रतिशतले घटेको नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले बताएको छ । गत असार मसान्तमा १३ खर्ब ९९ अर्ब ३ करोड रुपैयाँ रहेको कुल विदेशी विनिमय सञ्चिति घटेर पुस मसान्तमा ११ खर्ब ६५ अर्ब ८० करोड रुपैयाँमा झरेको छ ।


Though these are 6 Month Data only and we are in the Process of completing the 7th month this weekend. As per our estimates this current Month Data is more Dangerous then the Previous month which the Central Bank will Complie after the Completion of the Current Month.

So are we Breaking 2800/- Mark followed by 2750/- Mark in Todays and Last Trading Session of the Week ??

Let's see What is Next ...

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 32
thank you for the market update !!!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The Remittance Inflow has further Decline to an alarming Level !! Infact likely to be report a Stronglest downfall in a Decade (10 Years).

This will further the Tighten the Liqudity in the Banking System for Sure.

This will Force the Central Bank to Revoke its Last Circular on Intrest Rate too or else need to Bailout the Banking Liqudity System Via Helicopter Money.

Some Bank may be forced to Reduce the Daily Withdrawal Limit via ATM too.

NEPSE could not Peform despite Local Election Date Announcement.

NEPSE 2750/- is a strong Technical Level, A Break of 2750 will take NEPSE back to to Level below 2300/-

Once 2750/- Level is Broken the Rate of Fall will be Fast and Furious in Nature as 2750 is Panic Sell Button Technically too.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
The NEPSE is in a Mood to Break 2800/- Level, Once the 2800/- Level is Broken then Bear will Make an attempt to Break 2750/- Level.

2750/- is an Very Important Level to be watched for Short Term Traders.

Once the 2750/- Level on NEPSE is Broken then again we are going Back to Level below 2300/- and the Rate of the fall will be Fast and Furious once 2750/- Level is Broken.

Investor and Traders should be cautions for Today & Tomorrow for making any Fresh Purchase in the Market !!

If a Technical Level is Broken then Good News for any Particular Stock will also Not work in the Market -------

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1911
Meta Platforms INC. (Face Book ) Yesterday Dropped 26.44% in a Single Day !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

On Wednesday its Close Price was 323 $$ and Today (USA Thursday) it's 237.60 $$ a drop of 85.40$ in a Single DAY.

Crash in Face Book Price has resulted Mark Zukerberg Poorer by Whopping 24 Billion $$$.

Short Seller in F&O segment must have a killing Money in Face Book :roll: :roll:

Some Might have become Millionare Over Night !!


Jai Sambhu
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 32
Deepak sir ko nepse mathi ko current view bujhna paye hune
Member
Registered: Jul 2014
Posts: 108
पुषमा मार्जिन कल, ब्याज बढ्ने त्रास, लघुवित्त कम्पनीहरुको शेयर अफलोड गर्नुपर्ने राष्ट्र बैंकको निर्देशन आदिले बजारलाई बढ्न नदिएको हो | तैपनि जति घट्नुपर्ने पैलेइ घटिसक्यो | अब बिमा कम्पनीहरुको लाभांश घोषणा हुने, दोस्रो त्रैमासिक रिपोर्ट आउने, चुनाव घोषणा हुने, तरलता सहज हुने, माघदेखि लघुवित्तको समेत डिमाण्ड बढ्ने आदि कारणले बजार बिस्तारै उकालो लाग्ला | मेरो विचारमा ट्रेडर्स र इन्भेस्टर्स दुबैलाई राम्रो समय हो यो | यदि नेप्सेले अलटाइम हाई बनाउने हो भने बैंक, बीमा वा लघुवित्तले लीड गर्नेछन्, हाइड्रो, विकास बैंक वा फाईनान्सले होइन | जय होस् सबैको |

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