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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
In the Current week Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, In 3 Trading Session we liquidated 50% of our shares with an average Loss of 3.5%.

Remaining 50% holding we are currently sitting on 3% MTM loss based on Thursday Close Price due to Uptick seen in Price of Hotel Sector.

In the coming week will watch whether the Market will continue to defend 2000/- Mark or Not ??

If Market breaks 2000/- then we will liquidate the remaining 50% of our holding and wait for 1800 level based on the Current IPO and Right Scenerio in Pipeline.

If there is further increment in IPO & Right then will wait for 1600/- level.

These IPO and Right issue are sucking the liquidity from the Market in Faster pace and Fresh Money is not coming in the Market.

If the momentum continues for IPO and Right we are not far away from a Big Recession in NEPSE.

LETS SEE WHAT IS NEXT FOR MR. NEPSE.

Disclosure : The above statement is for Study Purpose and should not be considered as an Investment Advice. Consult an expert before making any Financial Decesion.

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Mai Khola Hydro Power (MKHL) recently Published its Un-audited Q4 Report.

I was going through the Report :-

Income from Sales increased from 7.03 Crore to 7.31 Crore compared to Last Year.

Paid Up stands at 39,21,56,800 = 39.21 Crores after IPO.

The Company has allocated NPR 2,10,52,632 towards Bonus & Dividend.

Bonus & Dividend Allocation stands @ (21052632/3921568 Shares) = 5.368 Per shares.

Thus it mean Company is Planning 5 Rs per Share towards 5% Bonus Shares & Remaining 0.368 Rs towards Tax for Bonus Shares ??

Technically on Chart after forming the Bottom its under Trend Reversal.

Lets see what is Next for it.

Disclosure : I have a Holding in this Company and the above statement is for Study Purpose only and should not be considered as a Financial Advice, Kindly Consult an Expert before making any Financial Decision.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Mai Khola Hydro Power (MKHL) recently Published its Un-audited Q4 Report.

I was going through the Report :-

Income from Sales increased from 7.03 Crore to 7.31 Crore compared to Last Year.

Paid Up stands at 39,21,56,800 = 39.21 Crores after IPO.

The Company has allocated NPR 2,10,52,632 towards Bonus & Dividend.

Bonus & Dividend Allocation stands @ (21052632/3921568 Shares) = 5.368 Per shares.

Thus it mean Company is Planning 5 Rs per Share towards 5% Bonus Shares & Remaining 0.368 Rs towards Tax for Bonus Shares ??

Technically on Chart after forming the Bottom its under Trend Reversal.

Lets see what is Next for it.

Disclosure : I have a Holding in this Company and the above statement is for Study Purpose only and should not be considered as a Financial Advice, Kindly Consult an Expert before making any Financial Decision.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Today the Physological level of 2000/- was not broken which gave us the confidence to go for a Fresh Purchase in the Market.

Today we Deployed 4% Cash in the Market.

We bought mainly into Hydro, Hotels and Non life Insurance Sector.

Hydro were purely Technical & Speculative Setup Buy only for Trading Propectives only as Hydro as a Sector were very much was in oversold Zone in the Market.

After 01 Aug today we were Buyers in the Market.

Happy Investment !
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Today I was expecting a +VE day for the Market but I went wrong and the Bear took the Control of the Market.

I was waiting if Market continue to Hold above 2052/- will go for a Fresh Purchase but it tumbled down from there.

Today we had decided to Deploy Cash but looking the Weakness in the Market we dropped our Plan to Buy.

Based on Today Close our MTM losses stand @ 6.5%..

Let's see tomorrow whether 2000 Physological Support level is Broken or not ??

If Broken again in sideline else will go for a Fresh Buy in the Market.

Finger Crossed !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
NEPSE has formed similar Doji Pattern as it has last formed on 06 July 2023 (Ashad 21, 2080, Thursday)

Last time also it was Battle zone Between Bulls and Bears and the Bulls were victrious.

First 45 minute of trade dragged the Index which stopped us to do Fresh Purchase and made us on wait n watch mode and remained in the sideline with No Purchase for the day.

In Today's Session if Market is Above 2052/- then will Deploy Fresh Cash in the Market.

Looking at the Market bredth it seems like that Bulls will beat the Bears Today . The trade day after 06 July with the similar pattern also suggest that Bulls beating the Bear based on past Data.

I guess yesterday Brave Heart buyers in the Market who bought in the Market are likely to WIN.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
We last Deployed cash on 01 Aug 2023 (Tuesday) and our Total Deployment of Cash in the Market as on 01 Aug was 30%. Based on Yesterday Close Price our MTM losses stand @ 5%.

Currently sitting on 70% Cash.

After any technical level is broken we began sitting on sideline.

Today is an important day for us to check whether NEPSE is breaking 2042/- level or remaining above 2052/- level.

If it Breaks 2042/- will sit on Sideline again.

If its Between 2042-2052 we remain in undecesive mode.

If it remains above 2052/- then will inject Fresh Cash in the Market.

Let's see What is Guided by the Market to us in the Today's Trading Session.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Aug 07, 2023 6:53 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Dibyawshwori Hydro Power (DHPL) Published its Un-audited Financial Report for Q4 2079-80.

The Debt is very High compared to its Capital and Reserve is Negative equivalent to its Capital.

The Net worth Per share stands @ 1.11

What is Next for it is still a big Question Mark ??

Let's see What is Next for it ??
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2264
KRBLको नाफा साढे ४ करोड, लाभांश क्षमता ९.३० %
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Today is Thursday !!

Guruvaar is Generally Aggressive in Nature.

Let's see who is More Aggressive Today :-

The Bulls or the Bears ??

MKHL ( Mai Khola ) yesterday Hit an All time low of 265.70 in this Whether the Bear will be Aggresive or the Bulls ?? Need to Watch Today.

In this either the Bull will Give Up or the Bear will give up in today's Bull V/s Bear Battle.

Disclosure :- I have a holding in this Scrips @280/- Average Price.

Despite wherever it goes I find value for Money in this Stocks @280/- and will Continue to Hold.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
After 30% Retracement between its Base Price & its Recent Peak Price, Hotel Sector has took it's First STEP Today for the Next Bull Rally in its Price.

Current Market is all About Buy Right & Hold Tight.

Among the Hotels I Like all for Trading Prospective Currently City being My Favorite's among the 5 Hotel Stocks.

Lets See What are the Potential Price Target as we haven't Evaluated yet.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
As per latest News Coverage :-

नेपालमा गत वर्षको तुलनामा यो वर्ष जुलाईमा विदेशी पर्यटकको आगमन बढेको छ। यसपालिको जुलाईमा ५७ हजार ७२६ पर्यटक नेपाल आएको नेपाल पर्यटन बोर्डले जनाएको छ। यो संख्या गत वर्षको जुलाईको तुलनामा १३ हजार २६४ बढी हो।

This is +Ve News for the Hotel and Tourism Sector.

Among the Hotel City is a High Beta Stocks.


What Does a High Beta Tell Investors? A stock that moves more than the market over time has a beta greater than 1.0. If a stock moves less than the market, the stock's beta is less than 1.0. High-beta stocks tend to be riskier but provide the potential for higher returns.Feb 20, 2023 ( As per Google).

Hotel Sector stock's had to undergone 30% retracement from its peak price to base price after the strong run up, which seems to be Over Now, Now Fresh rally is expected in Hotel & Tourism sector.

Thank You
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Aug 02, 2023 8:18 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Our last Deployment of cash in the Market was on July 27, (Thusrday)

We remained silent on Sunday & Monday with 000 Activity.

Today We Deployed Fresh 5%,Cash in the Market totalling to 30% of Total Cash Deployment.

Currently our MTM losses stand @ 2% compared to 3.5% due to Price Average Factor.

The Continious Fall in the Market could be due to Some Business communities are making their Position light in order to create the Appetite for the Sector which had outperformed in 1 year term like Hotel and Insurance.

As there is lesser Amount of Fresh Money in the Market so exiting from underperformering Sector to Deploy that money in Outperformering Sector.

Apart from that Investor are also keeping money aside by selling their shares to Apply for the Upcoming IPO in life Insurance Sector and Mega Right issuess of Upper Tamakoshi and Mid size NHPC, NYADI and API.

Apart from that some Investor are also shifting from the Old Brokers to New Brokers and are seen winding up their Position in order to shift to New Brokers.

Now Major Support for Nepse is pegged @ 2044/- and Now 2100 will act as Resistance.

Our Major weightage of Investment is in Hotel and Insurance Sector approx 88% weightage.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:18 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
From 01 August 2022 to 31 July 2023 the Returns from Market are as follows :-

1. NEPSE (2196.25) Now 2106.18 Return -4.10%

2. Banking Index (1288.58) Now 1303.35 Return +1.14%

3. Dev. Banks Index (4105.23) Now 3933.56 Return -4.18%

4. Finance Index (1958.07) Now 1853.96 Return -5.31%

5. Micro Finance (4989.06) Now 3893.93 Return -21.95%

6. Hydro Index (2560.94) Now 2305.54 Return -9.97%

7. Investment Index (74.13) Now 72.36 Return -2.38%

8. Life Insurance (10,339.41) Now 11491.63 Return +11.14%

9. Non Life Insurance (8664.14) Now 11076.35 Return +27.84%

10. Hotel & Tourism (3046.64) Now 5672.75 Return +86.19%


In Last 1 Year Hotel & Tourism Sector Remained the Top Performer followed by Non Life Insurance.

This 2 Sector (Hotel & Non Life) are in a Secular Bull Run !!

Thank you
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Jul 31, 2023 4:18 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Last Week the last 4 Trading session were Dominated by the Bear Player.

Bears have manged to take Control of the Market during the Last Week.

We were Net Buyers on 4/5 trading session in the last week trading session except for Wednesday.

Hotel Index Bulls are Breathing and are Concentrating the Energy to Surpass 6000/- Mark on Hotel Index.

The Similar Pattern is seen in Non life Insurance Sector too.

But in Life Insurance Sector it looks like Bulls have Surrendered themselves to the Bears.

Now we won't be Buying in Life Insurance Sector as the Chart Pattern has disappointed us but will review after the listing of 3 Life Insurance Companies. But we are not doing Stop-loss but will not add and will continue to Hold what is Bought.

Now our Focus will be 2 Sector only from earlier 3 Sector.

After further filtering now our Focus will be in Hotel & Non Life Insurance only.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Today after the Break down of the Technical Level of 2148/- we Witnessed Panic Selling among the Traders.

The Down Tick in Price in todays Session was Utilized as a Buying Opportunity by Us.

Today we Deployed 5% Cash in the Market Today instead of Earlier Way of 3% Deployment in a Day.

Net Net In total 25% Cash Deployment in the Market.

The Weaker Hand of the Market has Exited by 88% (Approx) in Last 4 Trading Session Now 12% (Approx) Weaker Hand is Left in the Market which will be Digested on Sunday Trading Session.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
The corrected one is :-

Yesterday We didn't Deployed Any Cash in the Market as we were watching whether NEPSE is going to Break the Support of 2148/- on Not ??

Today's Level to Watch is Whether we are breaking 2148/- mark or Not for NEPSE.

Will wait for first 28 min of trade to watch whether we are Above 2148/- or below 2148 /-.??

If 2148 is broken then again we will be in wait N Watch mode like Yesterday, If Not broken will Deploy fresh Cash in the Market mainly Hotel & Insurance Sector.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Yesterday We didn't Deployed Any Cash in the Market as we were watching whether NEPSE is going to Break the Support of 2148/- on Not ??

Today's Level to Watch is Whether we are breaking 2148/- mark or Not for NEPSE.

Will wait for first 28 min of trade to watch whether we are Above 2048/- or below 2048 /-.??

If 2048 is broken then again we will be in wait N Watch mode like Yesterday, If Not broken will Deploy fresh Cash in the Market mainly Hotel & Insurance Sector.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
When is the Listing of Nepal Republic Media ??


Anybody any update ??
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Today We Deployed another 3% Cash in the Market.

Total Cash Deployment in the Market Now Stood @ 20% Cash.

We Continued buying in Hotel & Tourism Sector and Insurance Sector.

Today we tried to defend 2200 mark in the first few minutes but later left it as we thought why to Defend Nepse as our theme of Investment is not Nepse Index but Hotel & Tourism and Insurance Sector only.

50% weightage in Hotel & Tourism.
25% Weightage in Life Insurance
25% Weightage in Non Life Insurance.

Disclosure: This not a Financial Advice but our Own Stragety for the Capital Market Investment which we following for ourself.

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Today We Deployed another 3% Cash in the Market.

In Total we have Deployed 17% Cash in the Market.

Today is our Six Day of Continious Buy in the Market.

We are witnessing Weaker Hands of the Market are getting Panic and are Exited on seeing the Minus Index.

Yesterday Banking Index moved up Un-rationally and Today we witnessed the Sell off in the Banking Sector which dragged down the Market, Which was on card as expected.

We Continue to Buy and increase our Exposure in Hotel & Tourism and Insurance Sector majorly.

There were Support Buy on other Scrips too :x in Today's session as the part of the Index Management to defend 2200/- level on Index. And will continue to Defend 2200/- mark.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Jul 24, 2023 4:00 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Yesterday after the Publish of the Monetary Policy we Deployed another 3% Cash in the Market.

Symalteniously Market has also Broke 2200/- level on Daily Chart on Closing Basis.

Now the Target for NEPSE is Projected for 2400-2452/-.

We continue to Buy in Hotel & Tourism and Insurance Sector and 3 Hydro Companies out of Shorlisted 5 Companies.

Yesterday was the 5th session of our Continious Buy in the Market.

We are Slow and Steady but Continious buyer in the Market.

Happy Investment !
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Jul 24, 2023 6:34 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
The Current week in Last 4 Trading Session we have Deployed 11% Cash in the Market.

Now Awaiting for the Monetary Policy. Now there won't be any further Deployment of Cash from our End as the allocated Equity before Monetary Policy is Already injected in the Market.

After Monetary Policy will Decide Whether to Add Further in the Market or Not ......

But Before Monetary Policy if NEPSE Index Break 2200/- Mark on Closing Basis then We Might Deploy Cash on Technical Setup Parameter and will Ignore the Monetary Policy.

Already Deployed Good Cash in Hotel & Insurance.

Finger Crossed !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Since last 3 trading session we are Buying in the Market I.e Monday onwards.

We have deployed 3%+3%+2% =8% of the cash.

Today will deploy another 3% to make completion of 11% before MP.

We are not Buying in Agressive mode but in Accumulation mode with Bargain Buying.

Our Major Allocation is in Hotel and Insurance Sector.

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2070
Nepal managed to Escape from FATF from being Grey listed.

This will Act as the Positive Trigger for the Market.

This News will devlope the +Ve sentiments among the Bulls.

Need to watch whether we are Breaking 2200/- on Nepse or Not ??

Once 2200 is broken then Traders are likely to Enter the Market with the Higher Target for the NEPSE.

As 2200/- is the major hurdle, once surpassed then we might see next Target for 2400-2452/-.

Once 2452/- is broken Consisively then it's the 100% End of the Bear Market and New Bull Cycle has emerged in the Market.

Let's see what is on card.

We continue to remain invested majorly in Hotel and Insurance as we believe these 2 sector will be front leader for the Bull market.

Happy Investment !!

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