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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
NEPSE Closed in the +VE Territory for the 2 Consecutive Days.

We have Witnessed some Initial Small Lot of Traders Flocking to Development Banks & Non Life Insurance Counters.

Among the Development Banks We Witnessed Up move in KRBL, GRDBL, CORBL & EDBL.

Among Non-Life Insurance up move was seen UAIL & HEI.

These Super 6 Scrips has the Potential to become the Trader Favorite Momentum Stocks.

Lets see what is NEXT Price Action seen on these Scrips, Traders must keep these 6 Scrips in their Watch List.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
In Today's Trading Session we witnessed Bottom Fishing by some Investor in Development Bank Sector and Non Life Insurance.

NEPSE started showing some sign of Taking Support.

Among all the Sectors I am Most Bullish on Developement Bank Sectors as I forsee a tendency that these Development Bank Prices are likely to Beat Average Price of Micro Finance and are likely to be the major outperformer in term of Capital Appreciation.

We have also upgraded our Rating in Development Bank from Accumulate to BUY.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
On 30 Jan 2024 ie Tuesday the 10th Consecutive trading session we Deployed a Total of 25% Cash in the Market.

On 31st Jan & 01 Feb ( Wednesday and Thursday ) we sold off and took 10 out 25 in last 2 consecutive trading session.

This is a Normal Process of ours to Churn our Portfolio and study the Market depth Pattern at Higher Prince Level and Market depth pattern at lower Price Level and the trade and volume Pattern in those higher and lower level to filter out Which Stocks has the tendency to out Perform.

As we also want to know What we think and What the Market think

During the Churning Process we incurred some losses too and those losses were in between 2-3% in some Scrip and in some scrips 3-5% Profit too.

We still in Process of further Filtering of the Scrips and will Deploy back the cash back which we took out in last 2 trading sessions.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:42 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Yesterday was the 9th consecutive Day of Accumulation and Today from 9th day will enter the 10th day. Single Digit to Double Digit.

In Total 23% Cash Already Deployed and Today will cross 25% Mark.

Market is also Consodilating at the Moment.

Today will Focus in Devlopement Bank and Finance Companies as our Current weightage is just 2% of the Total Cash Deployment in these 2 Sector aĺl together.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Today we Bought and Accumulated for the 8th continious trading session in a Row.

Today NEPSE showed the First sign of Trend Reversal and Closed in a +VE Zone.

Today initial For-Front Index Recovey was seen in Developement Banks and Hydropower.

It seems like this 2 Sectors are likely to Catch the Momentum in the Market in short Term via a vis Finance sector too.

Among All the Sectors I have Major Bullish Views in Developement Banks and then Followed by Finance Companies, in Short to Medium term Tenure.

I Personally these 2 Sector Average Price will beat the Average Price of Micro Finance in upcoming Days.

Among Hydro some will Perform and some will Under Perform thus not much exicited in Overall All Hydro except for few Scrips in Hydro.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:43 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
In the Month of Magh we continued Bought and Accumulated shares for the 7 Consecutive Days.

We continued to increase our Exposure in the Market.

Among the Accumulated Sectors we like most the Developement Banks because of Low Cap Factor but weithage of the Exposure in Devlopement Banks sectors is Just 2% out of 20% Cash Deployment.

As we never Buy more then 20% of the average daily Volume of the that Particular Shares in a Day until or Unless there is some News or Corpoanate Annoucements which may work as a Catalyst for a a strong Price Swing.

We think in coming days Developement Banks and Finance Companies are likely to beat Average Price of Micro Finance.

8 is the Number of Money and Elon Musk also believes in No 8 and we also believe in No 8.

Coming Sunday will be 8th Trading session for us.

Let's see What is Next for the Market.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Yesterday was the 6th Consecutive Day we bought in every dip in the Price of the stock's.

Every Dip was utilised by us to Accumulate the shares.

Today also we will continue to Accumulate the shares, Just need to check whether we will be paying higher price then yesterday or lower then Yesterday.

Till Now we have deployed 20% Cash in the Market.

We witnessed not only us many other were also doing Bargain Hunting in Price.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Yesterday was the 5th Consecutive Day we bought in the Market.

We continue to Accumulate the Shares in the Market.

Till Yesterday we have Deployed in Total 17% of the Cash in the Market.

We Continue to Accumulate 3 Developement Banks, 2 Finance Companies, 4 Hydro Power, 3 Commercial Banks and 2 Companies in the Investment Sector.

Today Market if Continue to Hold above 2100 till 12 Noon them we might buy Agressive in the Market.

Slow and Steady increasing our Support Buy level.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Since Last 4 Cosecutive trading days we are accumulating shares in the Market.

Currently we are accumulating by bargain buying in 3 companies in Developments Banks, 4 companies in Hydro, 3 companies in commercial Banks, 2 companies in Finance and 2 in investment segment.

In Total 14 Companies are cherry 🍒 picked.

The Fall in the Market gave us the oppurtinity to Buy in the Discounted Rates then the Previous Purchased Rates.

As we have broken 2100/- Physological Level some more correction expected till 2080/- .

Let's see what is Next !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Investor and Trader Reacted to action taken by Nepal Rastra Bank on 4 Development Banks and 1 Finance Companies with the Penalty charged upto 5 Lakh on them.

The 4 Developements Banks were :-

1. Gareema Bikas Bank
2. Excel Developement Bank
2. Karnali Developement Bank
4. Sindhu Bikas Bank

And the Finance company was :-
1. Reliance Finance

Apart from that Market also Reacted to Q2 Reports of BFI.

Today Dip in the Market was utilised by us as a Buying Oppurtinity and deployed Cash in Developement Banks.

Apart from that we also Picked 3 commercial Banks which were :-

1. Everest Bank
2. Nepal Sbi Bank
3. Standard Charted Bank.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Yesterday Market continue to hold above 2140/- on a closing basis which is a +Ve sign for the Market.

I was going through the Chart Pattern of Multiple Developement Banks and identified this 3 Musketers in the Developement Banks.

These 3 Developements Banks is forming the Bullish Flag Pattern on daily chart and the technical setup looks like it is going to give a Very Strong Bullish Break Out.

The 3 Developements Banks are :-

1. KRBL (Karnali Bikas Bank) LTP 380.50
2. MDB (Meteri Developement Bank) LTP 430
3. SINDHU (Sindhu Bikas Bank) LTP 320

I remember once UFL had hit 4 Consecutive UPPER CIRCUIT in Row, Where UFL has free float shares double then these 3 individual Developemnts Banks, So I won't be Surprised if they hit 6 Consecutive Upper Circuit in Row if Speculator starts betting on it as there Free Float shares are lesser then UFL, Now Nabil Bank.


Disclosure : The Above Statement is for Study Purpose only and one must consultant an Expert TA, Market Expert or others before making any Financial Decesion.

Happy Trading.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Today we Witnessed a Profit Booking Session in NEPSE which was Due for the NEPSE.

Despite Profit Booking Session we Continued to hold above 2140 Mark which is +VE Sign for the Market with Record Turnover of 9.76 Arab which is Tentatively 28 Month High Turnover.

We used the Todays Correction to Accumulate more Stocks mainly in 3 Sectors which were :-

1. Development Banks
2. Investment Sector &
3. Finance Sector

Apart from that we have also accumulated 4 Scrips only in Hydro Power Sector.

Apart from that We also witnessed some Tourist Investor taking out Cash from the Table 1 to Put the Cash in Table 2 for Next Strong Speculative up moving Sector.


Disclosure : The Above statement is for Study Purpose Only, One must Consult an Expert before making any Financial Decision.
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Jan 17, 2024 4:49 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
:lol:
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:16 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
The Regional Level Development Banks Latest Annualized EPS are as follows :-

1. Green Development Bank : GRDBL Annualized EPS +8.39
2. Karnali Development Bank : KRBL Annualized EPS +32.50
3. Narayani Development Bank : NABBC Annualized EPS -18.53
4. Sindhu Bikas Bank : SINDHU Annualized EPS +1.38
5. Miteri Development Bank : MDB Annualized EPS +6.31
6. Corporate Development Bank : CORBL +2.99
7. Saptakoshi Development Bank : SAPDL -57.6
8. Excel Development Bank : EDBL -44.50

National Level Development Banks :-

1. Garima Bikas Bank : GBBL Annualized EPS +14.19
2. Lumbini Bikas Bank : LBBL Annualized EPS +19.70
3. Muktinath Bikas Bank : MNBBL Annualized EPS +12.99
4. Kamana Sewa Bikas Bank : KSBBL Annualized EPS +14.57
5. Shine Resunga Development Bank : SHINE Annualized EPS +16.19
6. Shangrila Development Bank : SADBL Annualized EPS +5.43
7. Jyoti Bikas Bank : JBBL Annualized EPS EPS +4.62
8. Mahalaxmi Bikas Bank : MLBL Annualized EPS +9.15

In Total we have 8 Regional Level & 8 National Level Development Banks

Among Regional Level Highest Positive Annualized EPS is of KRBL @ 32.50 & Among National Level Highest Positive EPS is of LBBL @ 19.70

The Above Data is Compiled from Mero Lagani Data , Kindly Re-confirm it from other sources too.

Happy Trading and Thumbs UP to NEPSE !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Hydro Power Sector looks good but is not much backed by fundamental except for Few.


After Doing a Lot of Brain Storming Session came to Conclusion that for Better Capital Appreciation, The Sector to look in Seems to be Development Banks & Finance the Moment :-

1. Development Banks Sector basically those with Lower Paid Up and has been in Profit in last Published Report.

2. Finance Companies Sector basically those with Lower Paid Up and has been in Profit in last Published Report.

I feel Average Market Price of Development Banks & Finance Companies stocks are likely to Beat the Average Market Price of Micro Finance Stocks.

Disclosure : The Above statement is for Study Purpose Only and one should Consult an Expert before making any Financial Decision.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
As Market has manged to sustain above 2075/- Mark in last 2 trading session before Poush 29 and has managed to break 2100 mark on closing basis on Poush 29 Now hereby Confirms that Market has made the Final Bottom @ 1800 odd levels.

Now we have upgraded the Market from Negative to Neutral.

Now symalteniously we have also upgraded the market from No Activity to Accumulate on stock's.

We expect further Momentum from hereon after the break of 2100 mark Physological Resistance.

Once we break 2352/- mark on closing basis that will indicate the Beginning of the New Bull Cycle.

Currently Evaluating the Stocks and the Sector which could give better yield in terms of Capital Appreciation.

Happy Accumulation.

Disclosure : The Above statement is for Study Purpose only and one should consult an expert or a CA before making any Financial Decesion.
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:29 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Market witnessed a Bounce Back and is heading for the Target of 2075/-. which will act as the Immediate Resistance.

In 2 Trading session if Market managed to move above 2075/- then 2100 will act as the Physological Resistance.

If Market Manages to Break 2100 mark on the closing basis in this week ie Poush end then Market will catch the upside Momentum.

If Market fails to Break the 2100 mark on the closing basis then in coming days we will trade in a Narrow Range of 100 odd points between 1992-2095/-.

As it is the Month of Poush if Market remains above 2100/- means Market has Formed the Final Bottom @ 1800 odd levels else there is still a Probability for a lower bottom range then the Previous mark of 1800/-

Market Surpassing 2352 Mark on the closing basis states beginning of a New Bull Cycle.

Let's see what is there on the Card for the Market.

Disclosure : The Above statement is for Study Purpose only and should not consider it as an advice, One must consult an expert or CA before making any Financial Decesion.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
We Booked Profit on 20 Dec 2023 after Formation of 3 White Soldiers and the Next day after that Market started correcting and we are witnessing Downfall consecutively.

Now we will be watching whether 1992 level support is defended or Not ??

If 1992 level is well defended then we will Re enter the Market again.

Before 1992, 2000 is the Physological Support for the Market.

Let's see what is on Card for the Market.

Happy Trading
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Market after reaching near to Neck line near 1800/- of some what pattern looking similar to head and shoulder pattern, Market didn't broke the neck line and took a Reversal.

Then market formed a Strong Bullish candle and hit the 6% Upper circuit, though I didn't bought on the circuit day.

Next day we waited and bought the every dip in the Price and started accumulating.

3 consecutive days we bought till level below 2000 level on NEPSE. And NEPSE was forming Bullish Pennant pattern on Chart.

After breaking of Bullish pennant we observed 3 strong Bullish candle in a Row.

Currently we will hold till we don't witness any sign of Reversal on the Chart.

As the NEPSE has formed 3 White Soldiers on the daily chart so there is a Probability that today might be a some Profit booking session.

Let's see what is on card, if Profit booking is seen we might also exit and take the cash out of the Table and will Buy Again on Dips. :

My investment theme is listed New companies only.

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Dec 20, 2023 8:20 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
In a Span of 16 Months NEPSE has moved above 2200 mark for 3 times and has come close near 1800 for the 4 times.

Looking at the Current Pattern it looks some what like Head and Shoulder Pattern but not exactly the same.

If we consider it as a Head and Shoulder Pattern then we Assume 1800 to act as the Neck line of the Head and Shoulder Pattern and infact a Major Physological Support Level too.

1800/- is a MAGIC Number for the time being, If Broken concisely then a Next Phase of MINI BEAR 🐻 will come.

We have already completed 2 years of the Current Bear Market Cycle out of 4 Years Cycle.

Disclosure : We have No investment in the Market except for few 10 odd kittas alloted in the IPO.

Happy Saving !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Despite entry of estimated 11 Arab of Fresh Money from the Estimated 18 Arab of Projected Fresh Money Entry, Market broke the Level of 1952/- on closing basis.

Currently Hovering Below 1900 Mark Currently at 1874.60 Mark.

The main culprit for the Market going Down is the Continues supply of shares from the IPO market which continue to Suck liquidity from the Market.

My assumption was that Market will hold 1952/- because of the flow of Fresh Money which will rebalance the liquidity outflow from the IPO Market, But I turned to be Wrong.

1838/- is a Level to be watched as the Major Support Level in upcoming days followed by 1800/- as Physological Support Level.

Let's see what is Next for the Market.

Disclosure : We don't have any Exposure in the Market except for the 10 odd kitta allotted in few IPO's.

Happy Investment !
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
As per our Study an estimated 18 Arab ko Fresh Money is likely to enter the Market.

Of the estimated 18 Arab estimated 2 Arab has already entered the market.

Which will provide support to the Market and 1952/- will act as a Very strong Support for the Market.

For the next upcoming trading session for the month of Ashoj and Kartik I won't see Market going below 1952/- mark.

This Fresh money might also act as a catalyst for a Mini Bull schedule in the Month of Kartik.

Disclosure :- We don't have any Exposure in the Market.

Happy Investment
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Market made a strong upmove last week especially in the last Trading session of the week.

The Technical Chart suggest 2048/- to act as the Next Hurddle for the NEPSE.

If NEPSE manages to break 2048/- and continue to Hold above it then we might see 2096/- as the Next Major Resistance for NEPSE.

But if Market tries to shy away from or below 2048/- then we will witness again a Next Round of Correction.

Let's see what is the Destinity for the Market.

Disclosure : We have no exposure in the Market.

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Companies in Q to Get listed :-

1. Upper Lohore khola
2. Manakamana engineering Hydro Power.
3. Bhagwati Hydro Power
4. Mandu Hydro Power
5. Citizen life Insurance
6. Hathway Investment.
7. Mid Solu - ipo result yet to come.
8. Sonapur Minirals - upcoming IPO.
9. Mathillo mailing - in Q
10. Chirkhawa - in Q
11. Lumbini Urja - in Q
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Today we lost more then 40 odd Points.

As if Many Retail Clients are Selling shares to arrange Money to Watch Cricket World Cup 2023, Happening in India during Dashian Tihar.

Or its just the Bank intrest Rate ??

🤔

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