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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
Now the NEPSE has Come Closer to its Silver Support Level of 2120/-

Now 2120 is likely to Act as the immidiate Support Level for the NEPSE !!

From Level near 2120 we expect a Technical Bounce Back in the NEPSE, Which could get Extended upto 2220/-

But if 2100/- Level is Broken then We Expect a Margin Call to 95+% Clients who has a Loan Exposure in the Equity Market !!

Once 2100 Level is Broken then it will Push the NEPSE towards the Golden Support Level of 1656-1720 Level.

The Major Impacted will be Blue Chips Companies which are accepeted by the Multiple Financial Institutions as Collateral for Share Loan / Margin Loan !!

We Continue to remain aside from the Market for the Medium term Prospective except for a Tech Bounce Play even if we enter the Market.


Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 42
25% expenditure = liquidity at worst level
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
Nepal Upcoming Budget Size is 13.7 Billion US $$ on Prevailing Exchange Rate.

MCC Fund Size is equal to 3.65% of the Budget Size.


Things to Watch in the Budget is the Source of fund from which the Budget Amount will be full filled.

If there is limited source of Revenue that means Budget is only on Paper and is not backed by Cash Amount, Means 20-25% expenditure only on the Budget Amount.

Let's See !!
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 42
your profit = govt profit
your loss = your loss
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7508
Last year I paid about 25-35 lakh in tax.

This year I have already lost all the capital gain gained during this bull. I could even have lost some wealth, Its been months since I stopped checking my portfolio.

I want commies and socialist to return the tax I paid through upcoming budget and also compensate me for my lost capital gain.

And I dont even have a car, I dont even have a good bike. And I have been paying interest from My loss. I had created probably 100 jobs during good times. Now, I need a job.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
My Demand as an Invidual Investor to the FM :-

The Goverment Should initate a Programme called "Investor Pension Scheme Fund" for Individual Investor only :-

Any CGT paid by the Individual Investor the 50% of the CGT amount should go the Investor Pension Fund:-

This is also a kind of Social Security Initative which a Goverement should Exercise.

Once an Investor attain the 65 Years of Age the Investor shoud start getting Pension against the Fund contribution made in the "Investor Pension Scheme Fund"

Incase of Death If male wife should get the Pension incase of a Female a Husband should get the Pension.

For Children the Pension should be Applicable till the children attains the Age of 21 Years.

If required the Political Party can Put the Scheme under it's Political Hero Name for Popularity & Political Milage.



That's my Openion Whats your Guys ??
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7508
core area bhetyo- 25, 27, 28 :twisted:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7508
What if balen, becomes second in both uml and congress area :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:



Last election, in social media, oli was very popular among neutral, this time he is no longer.

Balen is seems more popular among neutral than oli in social media and in kathmandu, majority are neutral and he is very very popular among youth. And there is hate vote which he will get. Most are hate vote though.


Halo may take away a lot of newar votes too.





Hetuda is getting interesting.

Hoping this local election will be come lunching pad for national election to bring down congress and communists.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
Areas of Kathmandu Ward Wise Exit Poll Updates

1. Naxal - Balen
2. Lazimpat - Balen
3. Maharjgunj- Nepali Congress
4. Baluwatar - Nepali Congress
5. Hadi Gau- Nepali Congress
6. Bouudha - Nepali Congress
7. Mitrapark- Nepali Congress
8. Pashupati- Nepali Congress
9 Gausala - UML
10. Baneshwor -Nepali Congress
11. Tripureshwor- UML
12. Teku- UML
13 Kalimati :UML
14. Kalanki: Nepali Congress
15. Dallu :UML
16. Shorraha Khutte : Nepali Congress
17. Chetrapati :UML
18. Nardevi :UML
19.Bhimsensthan :UML
20. Jhyawhel :UML
21. Jawahahel : UML
22. Tewahaal :UML
23. Uwahaal :UML
24. Makhan Tole :UML
25. Janbahal :UML
26.Lainchor: UML
27.Maha Bouddha : UML
28 Purano Buspark :Nepali Congress
29 Dilli Baazar : Nepali Congress
30.Gyaneshwor :Nepali Congress
31.Bhimsen Gola: Balen
32. Koteshwor : Balen
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
The Local Election Vote Count is ON !!

Currently Balen Leading the Vote Count !!

The Major Vote Count Area of UML for Kathmandu will start from Ward 9,11,12,13,15,17,18,19.........27.

The Major Vote Count Area of Congress will start from 3,4,5,6,7,8,10,14,16,28,29,30.

The Major Vote Count Area of Balen will be 1,2,31 & 32.

Out of 32 Ward 16 is count for UML, 12 is the count of Congress & 4 is count for Balen

Let's wait for the Outcome still less then 5% Vote is only Counted.
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun May 15, 2022 3:45 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7508
They are saying Keshav Isthapit is running church in his house. Probably involved in conversion into Christianity.



His voters should vote for Balen to punish sher bahadur.

I am sure, Ganesh man's buhari wished for death of her sasura when he was alive just like most of buharis. Punish her by voting for Balen.




Make this FU election.




If we destroy NC, uml, maoist's seat one by one, we just need to defeat them twice in a row, then they will runout of money to buy votes and cadres in third election. this is how we should give rise to new party and save Nepal.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7508
If you check social media, most of neutral want to vote for new.

We may at least see big shift, only question is would that be enough to win?



investor, self employed individuals, patriot voting for congress, uml, maosit is like spitting on their own face.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
The Local Election season is on !!

The major Attraction of the Local Election is Kathmandu & Bharatpur.

Followed by Biratnagar & Pokhra !!

My Guess for Mayor Victory are as Follows :-

1. Kathmandu : Keshav Isthapit
2. Bharatpur : Renu Dahal
3. Biratnagar : Mr. Nagesh Koirala
4. Pokhra : Mr. Krishna Thapa.

Vote For Your Right !!

Let's Wait for the Poll and the Outcome !!

😉😉
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun May 08, 2022 8:31 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
Enjoy the Week End !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
After being inactive in Market since Last approx 7 Months in running, Today We iniated the first BUY call recommendation on 1 Scrip to our Clients :-

1. NCC Bank

Earlier Nabil NCC Merger SWAP ratio news was in Ratio of 100:35

Considering the Above Scenerio based on NABIL Close Price of Yesterday @ 934.90 the Price Discovery of NCC Per Shares Stand @326/-

But based on our Calulation and estimates the tentive SWAP Ratio should be 100:42, Based on this Calculation the Price Discovery Price Work @ 392/-

The Current Price of NCC is @ 230/-

Buy Right Hold Tight !!

Happy Investment !!

Disclousre : Kindly do Proper Research before making any Financial Decesion.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
Yesterday Strong Bounce back was seen in Nepse by 95 odd Points & has managed to move above the Bronze Support of 2405/-.

Now Nepse need to hold 2405/- mark in next 2 Trading session and symalteniously need to Surpass 2465/- mark in order to Confirm that the Bullish momentum is back in the Market.

Unable to sustain above 2405 and unable to Surpass 2465/- level will indicate that Nepse is all set to move towards the Silver Support Zone of 2120/- Level.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:59 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
Nepse has broken its Broze Support of 2405/ - and Continue to trade below that mark of 2405/- which is not a Good Sign.

Now the Strong Support for Nepse is the Silver Support level of 2120/-..

There will trader buying activity near the Silver Support Zone of 2120.

The Market need to Hold the Silver Support Zone of 2120/- till the Local Election Result is declared.

If Market is unable to Hold the Silver Support of 2120/- till Local election Result is out then it means the market is heading for Golden Support level of 1656/-.

We Continue to remain inactive in the Market, As said in the Past we will remain inactive in the market till Chaitra End., But Now we are waiting the outcome of the Local Election which will give the Q for the Parliament Election.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 42
Deepak Ji

accumulate or sell ?
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
I predicted$ 90 dollar oil by EOY 2021, and $120 by summer 2022. But, the price arrived few months early. Even without Russia, oil was bound to get to $120 by summer. US rig counts still lesser than 2019. US shale companies have managed capex and most of them have maintained production discipline. OPEC is loving this price. Saudi needs 80 dollar per barrel to balance its budget. Also, the Crown Prince wants to build NOEM, he needs hundreds of billions of dollars for it.
US Oil inventory is almost at 5 years low. Summer is the time of travel and construction. Lots of oil will be consumed by heavy machineries used during construction.
Western countries are shutting down nuclear reactors due to Green opposition. Even US is in the process of shutting down some nuclear reactors. Germany stupidly shut its reactors recently.
Air traffic still hasn't reached pre covid level. This summer may see huge air travel demand.
Huge demands for rare earth metals used in electronic/communication devices mean more oil consumption, as mining rigs/plowers/dumpers are run using oil.
More EV means more usage of copper/steel/nickel/lithium. More mining, more oil is needed.
As Russia oil supplies go away, OPEC will be found naked as their hyped spare capacity is just a hype.
There hasn't been big oil discoveries in the last 10 years, if you discount Guyana. Only quick fix to this problem is US oil shale and Canadian heavy oil.
As you know the US has democrats who are allergic to fossil fuel in power, US shale may not be motivated to drill more. Biden blocked Keystone pipeline which would carry Canadian heavy oil to the US Gulf from where it could be exported. Many US Shale oil companies faced bankruptcies due to overproduction circa 2014-2016. Banks, private equities are not running to fund exploration like they did last time. On top of it, many pension funds, University endowments, sovereign funds are divesting from fossil fuels. Oil companies shares haven't gone up commensurate with oil prices.
Hence, the companies are enjoying record prices, mending balance sheets, increasing dividends and buying back shares. CAPEX is just to maintain level production.


This commodity inflation cycle will bring hurt to middle/lower class folks around the world. Wheat is up 80% in the last week. CORN about 30%. There may be riots in Middle East and even India/Pakistan/Bangladesh as food price rises more than wages.

Countries will stop exporting grains here soon. Hungary already doing so.

Remember last time when India stopped exporting onions? This time its gonna be daily staples.
« Last edit by simrik on Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:16 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
Today a Strong GAP up opening of approx 5% was seen in Crude Oil Prices against Previous Close of 115.68$.

After hitting the Intraday High of 130.50 $ Mark Currently trading @ 124.21 Still Up by Approx 7.3%.

Last Year in March 2021 it traded in Price range of 57.25$ - 67.98$ Mark.

Considering 57.25$ as base Price Friday Close Price itself suggest a increment of 102% in Crude Oil Prices.

NOC (Nepal Oil Corporation) is getting Oil & Gas from its Indian Counterpart at Price derived from Crude Purchased @ 88$ Barrel Mark.

The Nepal Goverment need to reduce the Tax on Oil & Gas to a great extent, the only way to combat further appreciation in the Price of Oil & Gas. If there is further Rise in Oil & Gas Prices then the Retail Inflation will rise.

Lets see the Current Goverment instance on Inflation. But one thing is Sure Huge money/Liqudity will be sucked from our Banking system in the Name of Oil & Gas. The liqudity Crisis will continue to Haunt the NEPSE Bulls.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
The Nepse immediate support is Pegged @2520.

That doesn't mean Market downfall trend is over.

The down fall is likely to witness some sort of relief rally.

Some relief are also the Part of the market cycle in downfall too.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2292
अब पनि सरकार र पुंजी बजारसंग सम्बन्धित निकाएले चाडै नै पुंजी बजारको बिकाशको लागि ठोस कार्य (जस्तै :बैंकलाई ब्रोकर लाईसेन्स , DEMAT Account र Bank Account integration , margin lending ,derivative product) नगर्ने हो भने केहि समय पछि विदेशमा काम गरेर नेपालमा रेमिटान्स पठाउने कार्य उलेख्य रुपमा घट्ने निश्चित छ, किनभने सर्बसाधारण लगानीकर्ताले नेपालको पुंजी बजारमा आफ्नो रगत पसिनाको कमाई लगानी गर्नलाई हदै सम्मको दुख कष्ट भोग्नु परेको छ। । पुंजी बजार संग सम्बन्धित निकायले अब भाषण बाजीमा समय बिताउने हो र लगानीकर्ताले महशुस गर्ने कार्य नगर्ने हो भने अहिले नै आर्थिक संकट क्लाइमेक्समा पुगिसकेको छ, यहाँभन्दा माथि गयो भने विस्फोटनको तहमा अर्थतन्त्र पुग्छ |
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 812
LET ME ADD FEW MORE POINTS - HOW WAR IS DEEP CONCERN TO RUSSIA

ECONOMIC PROFITS
1 - After Ukraine Spiltted from Russia, The Russia Had to pay billion of dollars as tariffs for pipelines that passess Ukraine for supply of petro-gas to EU & OTHER COUNTRY - ALL BILLION DOLLAR IS NET SAVING TO RUSSIA AFTER INVASION

2- BLACK SEA & CRIMEA AREA seems to contain 2 trillion cubic meter of natural gas - RUSSIA ALREADY INVADED CRIMEA

3 -DONBASS region also have been found to have rich deposit of petroleum & gas reserves in mid 2020 - RUSSIA hence already INVADED THE REGION NOW


POLITICAL PROFITS
1- BELARUS will be encircled by three sides by Russia after invasion
2- CRIMEA & BLACK SEA PORT will be the only non-freezing advantageous port for RUSSIA and Russia can build bridge to connect its Mainland to Crimea and will give strategic geopolitical advantage as well as economic advantage
3- After Ukraine Invasion, Russia can easily take grip of MOLDOVA
4- After UKRAINE INVASION, RUSIIA will be able to form IRON CURTAIN against US & EU (NATO)
5- CRIMEA NEEDS fresh water which comes from North Crimean Canal which was built in Soviet Era which ukraine cut after CRIMEA INVASION - BUT after ukraine invasaion the water supply will be continuous

REAL CAUSE OF WAR
1 - US & EU poking Russia since last 20 years by expanding NATO continuously despite RUSSIA repeated appeal not to do so
2- US & EU trying to encircle RUSSIA since last 20 years
3 - US Fights with country in IRAN, far FAR from its land, showing SECURITY CONCERN (Not Justifiable)... RUSSIA invading UKRRAINE showing Security Concern (Justifiable Compared To US Unjustified Invasions).....

ALWAYS IN FAVOR OF PEACE
MAY PEACE PREVAIL AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:59 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2292
Russia export nearly 6 million barrel of crude oil each day. Price of crude oil is already above 115$ (Brent Crude is trading above 117$ now). One can easily calculate there earning per day from oil/gas only. (more than 80 billion NRS /day). Untill and unless WEST ban russian oil/gas, there economy will not get severely affected.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2102
Estimated 30 Arab NPR (3000 Crore) is spent per Day by the Russian Army towards the Russia Ukraine War.

Amount and assets worth 683 Billion USD is under freeze overseas till now of the Russian Central Bank and other combined Togather. The estimated size is 1366 times the MCC fund Committed to Nepal.

The freeze of asset and cash Figure is likely to Surpass 1000 Billion $$$.

The asset and Cash freeze is likely to anger further to Mr. PUTIN.

Let's see what all happens in coming days

Enjoy the weekend !!

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