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NEPSE INVESTOR & TRADER FORUM !!!

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Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 18
Thank you Deepak sir, yesterday I put my bet on MKLB @1649 evaluating the -4%
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
The Market Continue to remain like a falling knife, Yesterday downfall has further put us in cautious mode.

Earlier we had plan to Buy below 2450 mark considering 2425-26 to be a Potential bounce back Level, but looking at yesterday approx 3% fall in Index we have changed our mind to Buy below 2380 level only considering 2347-55 to be next Potential Level for Bounce back.

2100 is the Magic Number for Nepse if Broken then 1656 is on card for Nepse !!

Remittance inflow has reduced by 11 odd percentage approx, which suggest the Liqudity pressure to Continue in the Banking System.

The Rainfall in the Terai Belt has impacted the harvest of Paddy which will result in lower GDP.

Higher Intrest Rate to impact Hydro Power companies which has work in Progress and which has huge debt in Balance Sheet.

Don't know what is Quantam of losses beared by the Farmers, what could be Potential insurance Claim Figures yet to be assessed.

Happy Investment !!

Invest and Trade wisely !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
Todays Stock to Watch is MKLB (Manakamana Smart Laghubittya) whose Support Level is Near 1775/-.

Let's see Whether is breaks that Support Level of 1775/- or We Witness a strong Bounce Back !!

Kindly Note Average Trade Price of 1775/- Should be considered based 1000 Kitta Volume atleast not based on 10 Kitta based break Down :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

If Average Trade Price is above 1850 is seen then Technical based Buy is Advised in MKLB.

Though i dont like this Stock much but it has the Tendency to Move Fast in Upward Direction as Now 10 Kitta based major Sell off has alreday happened & Major Volume based Buy is Above 2000 Average Price, It's also a Ideal Candidate for Stock Cornering if that happens then i won't be Surprised seeing its Price Above 4K.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
NEPSE BELOW 2600/- MARK !!

LACK LUSTURE TRADE !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
Finally Nepse has confirmed Formation of Shooting Star on Daily Chart !!

Next Buy Level on Nepse has to be below 2450/-

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
On 13 Sept 2021 Nepse Formed an Early Indication of Shooting Star and It fell for Continious for 5 Days including that that till 21 Sept and Bounced Back in Second Half on 21 Sept.

On 23 Sept 2021 Nepse Again formed an Early Indication of Shooting star Pattern & it Fell for Continious 4 Days including that Day till 04 Oct and Bounced on 04 Oct in Second Half on 04 OCT 2021.

Today 10 OCT 2021 Nepse Again formed an Early Indication of Shooting Star Pattern, Now it Looks like it is likely to Drag Down NEPSE Below 2450/- Mark and might Bounce Back from 2425-26 Level.

These are Data forcasted based on Past Performance.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 18
Thank you Deepak sir
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5717
2 and 3, at once, then.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
I have Started Liqudating My Long Positions as some i have manged to Sell in Break Even and some in 2-3% Profit and some in the Losses in range of 3-5% based on my Purchase Price !!


Now i will Buying into the Market only if any of these 3 Scenerios happens :-

1. If Nepse Comes Closer to 2300/- Mark.

2. If Nepse Surpass 3200/- Mark.

3. Or Once the NEPSE Turnover starts trading @ 9 Arab Mark !!

As on Last Session i am 60% Invested in the Market and will be reducing my holdings to 20% Soon.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 88
Wo ever told what ever only sector that will help in bearish sector is microfinance. I have bought DDBL @2400 last bull market I decided to keep it I am in profit now and the same i have bought SBI @1200 last bull market I have kept it I am still in 35% loss so compare....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
@ Millionare Your Point of view is also correct to great extent.

But everybody need to understand that currently we in the Bear Market, and only few stocks are likely to Outperform.

And I feel Micro Finance to Outperform but the Quantam of return will not be that high.

Now Nepse is likely to Become a Traders market where Small gain in Price should be used as a Profit Booking Oppurtinity.

The Downside Risk is still open for the Nepse till 2300 level as still lots of traders and Investor are stucked at higher level.

I too have stop Deploying further cash in the Market and is currently 60% already invested in the Market.

I am too sitting on an average 10% loss at the moment.

The Volume shrinkage has put me in Dilema whether to Sell on Rise or Not but a break below 2300/- level will lead to Stoploss of my Position which is still Open.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Oct 05, 2021 4:44 pm. »
Member
Registered: Sep 2021
Posts: 2
Millionaire Ji, these are all valid points. But it's also true that micro is the only sector that has consistently outperformed nepse irrespective of market conditions. I have long held 30 percent micros in my portfolio. And it has never disappointed irrespective of market conditions-- although regulators have always tried to rein in its price. Like other sectors, microfinance also has too many bad apples and due diligence needed on the part of investors to separate wheat from chaffs.
Member
Registered: Jul 2014
Posts: 104
Technically deepak ji might be right. But I strongly oppose his idea to go for Microfinance for these reasons:

1. All commerical banks have to offload their holding of microfinance by Poush end 2078. The supply of promoter share will create certain degree of resistance in ordinary shares price too.
2. NRB has put stringent measures to dividend distribution above 20% and issuance of right shares.
3. Microfinances have created price disparity in NePse: Look at the price of a commerical bank and microfinance with the same dividend capacity.

Leaving few exceptions of well-established scrips with constantly better dividends, my preference is NO NO to microfinance.
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 18
thank you sir for your guidance
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
@ Curiouskanxo The further Downside range for Micro Finance is very minimum but the upper range is Maximum.

Apart from that the Dividend Announcement has also began and few Micro has declared attractive Dividends.

Thus Risk is minimum in Micro Finance but the Reward will be maximum.

Based on the Price maintained by MKLB we are likely to re rate the Micro Finance Sector soon.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 18
Deepak sir bonus khane bela samma micro 100-200 le gultine ta hoina ?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
Now Most of the Selling is Over in the Micro Finance Space !!

As Now there is Very Limited Number of shares are only available for Sale in Micro Finance Sector at Current Level followed by Limited number of Unit for Sale in Mutual Fund.

Now we are likely to see Chu Mantar kind of Move in Micro Finance and Mutual Funds.

Now Seller are likely to get Vanished if there is small amount of Fresh Buying only in these 2 Sectors.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
As the NEPSE could not reclaim above 2752/- and continued to remain below and infact for the hope of the Bull to continue also it should have to reclaim 2700/- mark but it could not conqure it has has clearly confirmed that we have entered the Bear Market. Our Bull Market Target for NEPSE was 3200/- and it is was well Achived too. We haven't iniated the Bear Market Target for the NEPSE at the moment.

As Now we have already entered the Bear Market now approx 85% of the Listed Stock will Underperform and only approx 15% of the Stock is Likely to Outperform.

It's time to Say Good Bye to High Beta Stocks and its time to Welcome the Defesnsive Stocks.

Now the Bull Move will be in only few selective Stocks only out of which 70% will be from Defensive stocks & Financial instruements only and only 30% from Non Defensive Stocks, infact the Blue Chips Stocks which are backed by Strong fundamentals.

Many of the Tourist Investor and Trader has alreday Burnt their Hands in this Market Especially in Hydro and Finance Sector and will they will Continue to Burn in Near Future too.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
The Continues Fall in the Nepse was arrested Yesterday as some Players started Buying at Lower along with us.

Yesterday we Deployed 6% Fresh Cash in the Market infact our orders were worth 12% of our cash allocation but Seller Didn't gave us shares in our Bidded rates, Looks like we need to further increase our Bid rates.

Net Net 37% of Cash is already invested in Nepse as on Yesterday Evening, We Continue to accumulate the Defensive Stocks in the Market.

For the Bull market to Continue it need to Surpass 2752/- mark in Today's trading Session if Not today atleast 2700/- mark it need to Cross to Keep the Hope of the Bull Market.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
NEPSE Continue to Fall for the Fourth Straight Trading Session and Now the fall is likely to get arrested by Us.

We are Eagerly waiting for the Level near 2583-2600 to Buy Defensive Stocks in the Market.

The Marwadi Money which has flown into Indian Equities to make quick bucks will return Back soon as Indian Equities market are likely to fall Heavely.

Globally the Stock Market around the world is likely to crash Heavely like 2008 due to Lehman Brother if Chinese Real Estate Giant "Evergrande" get Bankrupt. It has a Total Loan of 305 Billion $$ in its Books of A/c.

The Major impact will be in the Industries such as Cement, Iron & Steel, Base Metal Manufactures, Electrical Cables, Heavey & Light Engineering Companies.

If that Happens then we all know NEPSE Boom Boom Again !!

Don't know whether that will Happen or Not , But i will be Buying and Accumulating Defesnsive Stocks. Among the defesnsive stocks all 4 Wholesale Micro Finance & one Non wholesale NUBL being my favourate Stocks.

Happy Investment
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
NEPSE Closed below 2752/- mark on closing basis on 20 SEPT 2021, Continued to Remain Below 2752/- Mark on closing basis on 21 SEPT 2021 and Yesterday again it Closed Below 2752/- Mark on closing basis for the Third time Clearly Suggest the Dominace of Bear Player in the Market.

Now NEPSE should not Hold below 2752/- Mark for the Next 2 Trading Session if It continues to Hold below 2752/- Mark on Closing basis then it gives a Confirmation that the Bear Market has Begun in the NEPSE.

Currently I am 31% invested and my Exposure in the Market is into Defensive Stocks only & Under valued Mutual Funds whose Intrensic Value (NAV) is Higher then its Current Market Values.

We are Likely to Allocate Major Fund in Micro Finance Sector irrespective of NEPSE bearish Move because we consider Micro Finance as a Defensive Sector as it continue to give a Compounded Growth Year on Year. Among the Micro the 4 Whole Sale Micros are my Favourate Pick followed by Non-Wholesale NUBL.

The Current Market Move has turned lot of Trader into an Investor Now :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:19 am. »
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 88
Kahile ho kahile paine hydro ko right ko pachhi lagne bhanda varkhar declare hune ra bhai sakeka bank bikash bank kine jitinchha hola ab bazarma....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
The Market again witness a Sell off in Yesterday trading session which has cornered the BULLS again.

Today is an Important day to be watched.

Whether we are Breaking 2752/- level on closing basis or Not ???

If we break 2752/- level on closing basis then Bear will take the Control of the market.

Currently we are 30% Invested and 70% Cash.

Today we might add certain stock Specific Scrips only which has the tendency to Perform in Bear Market too.

Let see How Nepse shapes up Today.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
The Nepse tried to enter the Bear Zone by going below 2752/- level but were defended well by the BULLS.

The Market should not break 2752/- level again in Upcoming Trading Sessions on closing basis else Bear will take the Control of the Market.

At Current Juncture we Continue to have a Neutral view on the NEPSE.

We Continue to do Value Picks in Stock Specific Out of which mostly are from Micro Finance Space and few others which are backed by Strong FUNDAMENTALS followed by good volume of Liqudity in the Market.

Bcoz we think even if Nepse enter the Bear Zone these stocks are likely to Outperform but may be Quantam of Outperformance could be slow if we enter the Bear Zone.

Among the Micro 4 Wholesale + 1 Retail (NUBL) continue to be our Favourate Cherry Picks and Few Others in Non Life space We Continue to accumulate this whenever we see a down tick in its Price.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1838
On Wednesday We Deployed 10% Fresh Cash into the Market after the end of my meeting, But Yesterday could not look into the Market as as was in the Process to Travel Back to Nepal From India.

Yesterday returned Back to Nepal.

As on Current Status we are 30% Invested in the Market and 70% Still on Cash.

From Next Trading Session We will be Regular Active in the Market.

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