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New Era Begin or Bubble created?

Moderators: बिमलमान, Dilbert.

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Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 90
Nepal ko shadow economy dherai thulo chha, GDP ahile 37 billion dolllar ma shadow economy pardaina so actual GDP kati chha thaha chhaina USA ma GDP bhanda market capitalization 96% badhi chha so ab Nepse le Chhalang hannu parchha .....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7424
gdp is 34bD , i keep on dividing with 100.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7424
Nepal's GDP reaches 3.943 trillion, per capita income at USD 1134

english.khabarhub.com/2021/04/167661/
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7424
Govt updated GDP just a few weeks ago. Just under 40 billion.
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
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Govt official GDP figure is 40 Billion USD


Source please?
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 140
For me ....nepse cap. should take strong support at 75% of GDP ie its safe...agreed with the view point of the rising sun...
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7424
Govt official GDP figure is 40 Billion USD.


My personal guess is close to 100 Billion USD.


Real market capitalization is 70% of official figure.
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
In order to answer that question we should ask another question:

Is the overall market cap of all companies listed on NEPSE justified relative to the total output produced by the country?

One of the ways to gauge this is to use Buffet indicator (market cap / nominal GDP).

NEPSE market cap = ~ US$30b
GDP = ~US$32b (estimated between US$30b to US$34b for 2021)

30/32 = 93.8%

This tells us that NEPSE is currently modestly undervalued in relation to GDP. I say this cautiously as I am estimating that historically market cap has not greatly surpassed GDP. Note that this ratio is used on a historical relationship between the two data sets.

What this tells us is that total goods and services produced by the country has yet to be matched by the total valuation of NEPSE. As we still have many companies not yet listed on NEPSE this figure could change however.

Not that it is a fair comparison - US's total market cap over GDP ratio currently stands at 196% as of April 1st. It's historical avg is about 86%.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7424
There are four types of stocks in NEPSE based on price:

1: Overvalued for the bull
2: Overvalued for the moment
3: Right price
4: Undervalued

1 and 4 are extreme positions.



1: There are good numbers of shares which are already overvalued for this bull. Meaning, Even when balance sheet improves till the end of the bull, fundamental at that time wont be supporting current price.

Pigs owing the stocks will get slaughtered no doubt, but whom? Those pigs who are currently holding or those murgas who will be buying those pigs shares at higher price????? Time will tell. But it is guaranteed, many will get slaughtered.

I can tell you more. Big pigs will get slaughtered. They will keep on buying to increase price, to prevent crash ..... and which will sink them deeper and deeper.





2: They are over priced for current fundamental. But when fundamental improves next year, current price will be appropriate and in second year, current price will be undervalue.

If those holding these shares dont find murga, all they have to do is wait. Even if price crash, They will be in profit in two year.



3: When fundamental improves, they will be in good profit. They are very safe.



4: Another end of the extreme. Those shares which are undervalued for current fundamental. And when fundamental improves over time, their current price will be even more undervalued. There is only way where their price can go...... ROCKET.
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 79
This time NEPSE is more than double whenever we consider low around 1100

But, unfortunately banking and d banking index is less than कछुबागति।

whenever we see price of C bank least 500 ...

we might guess market is short term matured....

this time we can see NEPSE height around
झोमोलोन्माको चुलि।
Can u declare it as a bubble and will be destroyed in no second?

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