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Liquidity update

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
Date---- 2023/9/25- 2023/9/26

Deposit: 5757 --------5769
Loan::::: 4921-------4920

Com b loan:4354----4357
Other bfi loan: 567--563



Looks like Interest on loan and deposit are about to fall. Banks stealing loan from others. Used to be, stealing deposits.

When are incompetent CEOs going to be replaced who gave bad advice to NRB, who could not make a right decision about interest and loan promotion?? (Directors and promoters should be replaced who selected bad ceos)
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Sun Oct 01, 2023 1:58 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
Currency circulation: 613arab
Cash deposit in NRB: 438arab

Cash outside NRB: 175arab
In 175arab, under different heading NRB may have prevented banks from lending.


While US prints money and lends it to other country. Nepal can even utilize wealth we have cause of NRB and tells banks and business to borrow from CIA and pay interest to CIA and fall into debt trap.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
2023.8.17

Deposit: 5597
Loan: 4885

Monetary policy target 11% loan growth which is 540billion which is 45 billion/month.

In first month, there was hardly any loan dispersed (May be it went negative).

Dont think, reduced target of loan growth (last year it was 18%) will be achieved.





Like I have been saying, those minister, bureaucrat, pm who hate share market destroy economy. And those who ignore create big problem for the economy. Since, our economy is crisis- under current team, it will continue to be collapse. Under Prachanda and sher bahadur as PM- economy and share market have always collapsed.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
तरलता समस्या सामाधान गर्न अर्थमन्त्रीले बनाए समिति, एक साताभित्र प्रतिवेदन आउने, काे काे छन् समितिमा?

9-12 month too late.

- Go back to CCD ratio
- Increase export. 5kharab immediately, import=export within 10-15year.





बढेको ब्याजदरको दबाब थेग्न नसक्ने अवस्थामा पुगे गभर्नर, छलफलका लागि सिइओलाई बोलाइँदै, कात्तिकदेखि निक्षेपको ब्याज घट्ने

- Is bull about to jump and run? Let's see 5 circuits.
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 319
(१) निक्षेपमा दिने ब्याजदर मासिक रुपमा मात्र परिवर्तन गर्न सकिनेछ । आगामी महिनाको लागि निक्षेपमा (स्वदेशी तथा विदेशी मुद्रा) लागु हुने ब्याजदरसम्बन्धी सूचना नेपाली महिना शुरु हुनु पूर्व प्रकाशित गरिसक्नुपर्ने छ । तर, नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले तय गर्ने बैंक दर तथा नीतिगत दर परिवर्तन भएमा
तत्काल ब्याजदर परिवर्तन गरी प्रकाशन गर्न सकिनेछ ।
केही वैंकले १/२ दिनभित्र व्याजदर परिवर्तनकाे सूचना निकाल्छन् कि ?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2262
31/7/2022

CD :87.74
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
29/7/2022

Deposit: 5059
Loan: 4687

CD ratio: 87.62

Bfis have a lot of money but they have not been lending for sometime. Are they into loan holiday just like milk holiday????
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
My prediction was:

----------------- My prediction------

Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:02 pm
Prediction, By 2079 ashad end, Deposit will grow by 1000-1500 billion. Current Deposit 4352 billion.

------------ Very much achievable-----






In 16/7/2022 (so, they worked on saturday too)

Deposit: 5153 billion.
Loan: 4700


And My prediction missed by 199. I made impossible prediction of growth in deposit of 1000-1500 in 16month, Even after NRB manipulation, it missed just by 199.


Even after loan restriction, whom did they gave so much loan???
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
My prediction was:

----------------- My prediction------

Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:02 pm
Prediction, By 2079 ashad end, Deposit will grow by 1000-1500 billion. Current Deposit 4352 billion.

------------ Very much achievable-----






In 14/7/2022

Deposit: 5102 billion.
Loan: 4679


Let's see what is the number on 15/7/2022

One day left till 16 month number. In 14, the target is missed by 250 billion.
This is one of the crazy prediction of mine, if NRB had not manipulated, My target would have been met.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
Some Idiots advised govt/NRB to reduce loan and bring down cd ration.

I kept on saying, if you pay back loan, not just the loan will fall, so does the deposit.

And it will lead to fall in- banking business, jobs, govt revenue, economy etc.



We have proof of that:

Total deposit: 5106 (22/7/12) fell by 5 billion (deposit on 22/7/11-5111)
Total loan: 4685 (22/7/12) fell by 5 billion (loan on 22/7/11-4690)



We need to silence dumbs from talking on social media as well as in media.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
Repost after correction/addition.



Our economy needs 100 billion in liquidity in the bank all the time to run.
Govt, most of the months, holds 200-300 billion in liquidity.

Which means, there should be, at least,400 billion in liquidity in Nepal.




How much liquidity is available in Nepal in this day??

- Govt may be holding around 250 billion.
- BFIs current liquidity position is negative around 160 billion.
- CD ratio is deficit by 1.14% which is 55 billion.

Meaning, Liquidity available in Nepal before govt and nrb's announcement was around 35 billion.



Which means, Nepal is short of 365 billion of liquidity before the two announcements.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
Our economy needs 100 billion in liquidity in the bank all the time to run.
Govt, most of the months, holds 200-300 billion in liquidity.

Which means, there should be, at least,400 billion in liquidity in Nepal.




How much liquidity is available in Nepal in this day??

- Govt may be holding around 250 billion.
- BFIs current liquidity position is negative around 160 billion.

Meaning, Liquidity available in Nepal before govt and nrb's announcement was around 90 billion.

Which means, Nepal is short of 310 billion of liquidity before the two announcements.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
All kind of people are giving all kind of reason behind the liquidity crisis. Is following calculation wrong? It looks obvious. Am I the one who is unable to understand liquidity crisis or other are too dumb? I need expert opinion. Since, this is very important topic to the economy and the country and the share market. Expert, make it clear about liquidity crisis.





Total deposit of bfis- 4793 billion
Approax capital and reserve of bfis- 800 billion
Current Loan of bfis- 4546 billion
CD ratio- 90.08


As per current policy, 90% of deposit (CD) could be lended, which would be- 90% of 4793= 4313 billion.
As per older policy, 84% of ccd ratio could be lended, which would be- 84% of (4793+800)= 4698 billion.


With NRB change in monitory policy, lendable amount has disappeared by almost 400 billion.

And still, some are giving all kind of nonsense reason. Am I wrong or they are wrong.



As per current policy, BFIs have lended around 250 billion more then they could.
If NRB had not changed monitory policy, BFIs would still be sitting on far more than 150 billion.

There are 100-200 billion in extra cash NRB has injected as covid and other relief loan.
















आयात निरुत्साहित गर्न ब्याज निर्धारणको जिम्मा बजारलाई छाड्नु पर्छ, सुनिल केसीको विश्लेषण

Are baje, if they follow, your advice, every part of the economy will be destroyed except for import. Dont give interview again. Resign from banking job. Start pan pasa.










- There are 100 things govt need to do to improve the economy. Currently, the most important thing govt need to do is reduce import till balance of payment is fixed. And they should do it by direct intervention, not indirect intervention. Indirect intervention would destroy the whole economy.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
Some idiots are saying, why there is still liquidity crisis.

Deposit: 4766
Loan: 4430

Loan capacity as per NRB circulation: 4289+150=4439 (150 is covid fund, it and other fund total could be 100-250)


Govt spent a lot in last few day, if not, Banks had given far more than they are suppose to give as per NRB policy.

All this is cause NRB changed the policy. And cause of New policy, 100s of billions lost over night.



And those idiots in NRB think they understand share market.




I just want election as soon as possible. Jay bishnu paudel.

Best FM for Nepal is the one who will take my order, second is bishnu pauded.





Economic and share market crisis have always started in Nepal due to NRB. Its time, to disconnect NRB from monitory policy.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
Can somebody teach me about NRB balance sheet.


In the balance sheet, does not 'deposit form govt' mean, amount NRB holding belonging to govt which govt collected from tax.

If yes,

As per the balance sheet, NRB is holding 301 billion on badra. Then, why some fake news keep on saying, Govt is holding only about 100 billion of liquidity when it is three times.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
From 28-29

Deposit UP 51 billion
Loan UP 80 billion


Both UP by huge amount.
A day earlier both down by a lot, but less than on 29.



Either, there was technical error, or change in rule.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2262
Many of us may have get the answer of a question asked earlier.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2262
Whats the reason behind massive drop in both deposit & lending yesterday ?
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
As per shawan balance sheet of NRB, it says, NRB is holding 279 billion belonging to the govt. It must have increased by a lot at this time.


Today or yesterday, one fake news wrote, naming NRB official that NRB is holding 70/80 billion. Is that media trying to manipulate the market or the media is correct?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2262
सीसीडी खारेजपछि बैंकको ऋण क्षमता घट्छ: बैंकर्स अध्यक्ष दहाल, '१२८ अर्ब रुपैयाँले क्षमता कम'
This man is right. Many of us will feel this reality within short period.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
From 19-20

Deposit UP 2 billion
Loan UP 4 billion






नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले कर्जा-निक्षेप अनुपात (सीडी) रेसियो गणनाको नयाँ व्यवस्था लागू गरेको छ | जसले गर्दा बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाको संस्थाको कर्जा क्षमता साढे १ खर्ब रुपैयाँले बढेको छ
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2262
Whats the liquidity status at current date ?
Market sign is ominous.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
From 16-17

Deposit UP 3 billion
Loan UP 2 billion
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
From 15-16

Deposit UP 6 billion
Loan UP 8 billion

Looks like dashain remittance began to arrive or govt began new fiscal year spending.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7314
उनका अनुसार अधिकांश व्यवसायीले अहिले अरु बेलाको दसै भन्दा आधा मात्रै सामान ल्याइरहेका छन्


Just like I have been saying, dashain import is going to be a lot less than normal time which is good for the liquidity.

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