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Big Blood Bath in Hydro Power Sector was seen Today, Now What Next !!

Aba ko 1 barsa pachi Nepse ko sabai vanda sasto hydro BPCL hola jasto cha.
Aru badhne belama ghatdine , aru ghatne belama jhanai ghatdine 😂
Nhpc ; Joshi ; Kkhc ; Ghl ; Dhpl le jhandai vettaisakya thye 😂

Last fiscal year was the worst for BPCL. Running FY brings lot of optimism for BPCL holder. There subsidary company Nyadi Hydropower commercial operation date is nearing probably around Dashain which will contribute significant amount in there profit account.

Probably this is the worst financial year for BPCL.
Delay in project completion & dilution of stake in major income source.
Yeti huda pani if we look at it's position then it has eps of 17.09 & book value of 237.11 ..
It has always been one of the most undervalued scrip of Nepse..
When I see people commenting over commercial banks being undervalued , they never discuss about scrips like BPCL..
600 ko price range ma ajhai pani sabai vanda dherai dividend paying capacity BPCL ko nai cha...Company with great dividend yield...
There is huge scope for expansion. 1000 MW + develop garne JV ma 19.4% holding prooves it .
"Sichuan Provincial Investment Group Co. Ltd, Chengdu Xingcheng Investment Group Co. Ltd and Sichuan Qing Yuan Engineering Consulting Co. Ltd have joined hands with Nepal's Butwal Power Company to develop three hydropower projects under a cascade development model on the Marsyangdi river.The Chinese and Nepali investors plan to invest 1.2 billion U.S. dollars for the three projects"

Total dividend payout by BPCL in last 10 years : 231%
Right Share by BPCL 3:2
BPCL networth 237.

Total dividend payout by PCBL in last 10 years : 170%
Right Share by PCBL 3:1
PCBL Networth 148.

These data can be verified from there official web pages.
No need to explain the difference between these two companies.
Although both companies use same four letters (BCLP) in their acronym, but facts and figures are different and self explanatory.

Don't know what the Baba says but Chart and Market Behaviour telling a different Storey.

Double Top Formation with a Downside Bias with Support Pegged @ 501 once broken next Support is Pegged @ 480/-

Most likely to trade sideways.

If it manages to close above 540/- and Continue to hold then only further upside is Possible.

Everywhere PCBL ..PCBL..

Badsah of Nepse,Nirmal baba everywhere ..

Nyadi Hydropower commercial operation date is nearing probably around Dashain. Projected annual income is around 30 Crore when fully operational. BPCL holds around 73% of the project equity. The deficiency from Khimti Hydropower can easily be covered by the profit generated from Nyadi Hydropower.

Just see the CORE BASE of BPCL
Out of total 945 Crore reserve of all listed hydropower companies (Q4 77/7, BPCL alone holds almost 50% of HPC total reserve i,e 423 Crore.

Remaining loan amount is just 7.6 Crore.

National Hydro Power Company Limited has posted a net loss of Rs 22.18 million and published its 4th quarter company analysis of the fiscal year 2077/78.

BOOM BOOM Rs 1000 sure, right coming...

The Preview on some the Technical aspects of the Hydro Power Scrips Which are Randomly Selected :-

1. HDHPC (Himal Dolakha ) Shooting Star Pattern has been Confirmed and a Clear Down trend on Card.

2. AHPC (Arun Valley) Doji is formed, Bull & Bear fight is on, Still undecisive has tendency to move either side.

3. API (API Power ) Trading near Support Zone of 602/-, A Level to be Watched, Once Broken Further Downside to Continue, Else likely to trade Sideways.

4. NHPC (National Hydro) Shooting star Pattern is Formed, Further Downside to Continue.

5. NGPL (Ngadi Group Hydropower) : Support 1 & Support 2 Both are Broken Further Downside to Continue.

6. UPPER (Upper Tamakoshi) Trading sideways near its Support Level of 779 once Broken Further Downside to Continue

7. MEN (Mountain Enery) Bullish Flag Pattern in continuation Further Upside is Expected for the TGT of 1620/-

8. UMHL ( United Modi) Shooting star pattern is formed further Down side to Continue .

9. BPCL (Butwol Power) Trading sideways near Support Zone of 605/- Once Support Broken Futher downside to Continue.

10. KKHC (Khani Khola) Doji Formation, Followed by Bearish breakdown, Free Fall to Continue on Card.


Happy Investment !!

Butwal Power Company Limited ..

In this bull phase , it is clear that this company is hardly able to have price increament of just 100% from all time low price .
Why to Invest in this company ?
what i feel is :

1) Projects with 1000 MW + capacity in pipeline. ( manang marsyangdi 135 MW ; Upper Marsyangdi II 327MW ; Lower Marsyandi 139.2 MW ; Mugu Karnali 141MW ; Nyadi 30MW ; Kabeli A 37.6MW ; Khimti 60MW ; Chino Khola 7.9 MW ; Khudi 4MW ; Adhikhola 9.4 MW ; Jhimruk 12MW & it may get other more projects in future )

2) It's history. It has established itself as one of the best performing scrips in Nepse with excellent financial indicators .
It's solvency ratio & liquidity ratio is near to some high performing bluechips from other sectors while most of the hydros in Nepal are struggling with heavy debt & very poor debt to equity ratios.
It's ROE , ROA ; eps ; book value & several other financial ratios has always been attractive & consistent . With eps of over 30 & book value over 200 for several years proves it. ( There were incidents where plants were shutdown for certain period due to strikes , flood etc but company always had better comeback.)

3) It's dividend history for last decade. The portion of cash dividend out of total dividend shows the liquidity position of the company. It has healthy growth in paidup capital along with it's business with good dividend policy.
We all know that except it and chillime almost all hydros were never able to cross single digit dividend rate .

4) It's Bod & Management team. A company led by Ex NEA MD itself proves that the quality of senior management. And i think highest paid executive in Hydro Sector is BPCL's CEO with over 10million+ annual compensation.
And other senior management leaders' qualification is also way above if you compare it with other hydros'.
Bod led by Padma Jyoti , & memebers like Pradeep Shrestha shows the quality of Bod. These two groups ( jyoti & panchakanya ) are among big names in Nepalese Investment & industrial sector.
And more than 51% holdings of Shangrila Energy itself prooves how much money of promoters is concentrated in the company. And ratio of promoter to general public shareholder group being 70:30 also shows some seriousness of promoters towards company.
I mentioned it because lately we have been seeing all those promoters dumping their holdings to others.

5) Other Internal Control System & Corporate Governance of Company.
The transparency & details in annual report is the reason why company has always been able to grab " Best Presented Annual Report " every year from Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nepal.
Even the website has so many details and well presented facts about company.
I have checked websites and annual report of some other hydro companies & they barely even publish while majority of them have annual reports like some grade 12 student's project report.
IF i'm not wrong it is also best managed hydro in nepal according to some professional bodies. ( i mean it has grabbed those awards too .)

6 ) It's presence for over 6 decades with no major Defaults or any sort of misstatements .

Some major problems lately :
1) Khimti's dilution in ownership & ppa revision . This is obviously huge impact as company's major income was dividend from himal power .
But it hasnot completely lost it's holdings , it still has half of what previously there was & it will obviously get some income . And with completion if Nyadi's 30 MW it will be compensated somehow.

2) Kabeli A's work obstructed due to some loan issues with World Bank.
But company is constantly lobbying with Finance ministry regarding loan continuity & it is obvious that company will come out with some solution..And since company has already sold major stake to singapore based company it has now just 17% stake in it.
It has compelled company to set aside some significant amount as provision for Kabeli A. And Net profit is impacted lately due to this reason as well.

Except these company has great future ahead.
JV projects with chinese companies got approval from IBN for 33 billion rs recently.
And PPA is already signed for lower marsyangdi .
Nyadi is in final stage. Only some transmission line issue has caused delay in commercial production.
Company still has book value of 233 with eps of 20+ . It is obviously best figure stiil in hydro sector.
It can easily maintain it's dividend policy as of last decade for some coming years & with great projects in hand it has great future ahead.
And it needs significant increament in it's capital as it has just 3 billion as it's capital with such big projects in hand.

May be I'm missing some serious drawbacks of company .Idk ..

But yo bull ma when i see these NHPC ; Joshi ; Ghl ; kkhc , dhpl etc hitting +ve circuit ka circuit i don't know how people get confidence to spend their hardly earned money on these scrips with price above 450.
And even these radhi with that price range of 1200+ at some point..
ruru may have less supply & it has good eps but come on ruru 1200+ huda bpcl hardly 500?
& that mountain energy near 1000.
almost all hydros were above 400 at some point while bpcl was struggling at 500 .. jabaki bpcl bearish ko worst point ma pani 300 muni jharna namanne company.
So , where do you guys think this company is heading regarding it's price ??

The BPCL joint venture will develop three projects in Marsyangdi corridor viz. Manang Marsyangdi Hydro-electric Project (135 MW), Lower Manang Marsyangdi Hydroelectric Project (139.2 MW) and Upper Marsyangdi - 2 Hydropower Project (327 MW) as a cascade development model which sums up to 601 MW of electricity. They are going to be largest electricity generator private company in Nepal.
Dont know why GLP is spreading negative rumor about this company. May be he sold his stock to buy CHCL which has not performed well in last 5 years.

Updates on individual projects in addition to recent IPO of a subsidary company is coming soon.

धितोपत्र बोर्ड र नेप्सेका पदाधिकारीलाई कारबाही गर्न अर्थ समितिको निर्देशन

Unless Finance Ministry wants, nothing happens ..

Todays market move in Hydrosector may spoil the Golden Dreams of those who were in BUYING mode recently.

Really feel pity for these poor chaps : CHCL & BPCL
Unable to see the face of BULL when NEPSE index almost tripled , forget about HYDRO index.

But FUNDAMENTALLY these are good companies

Yes We Can Conclude that Rally is Over in Hydro !!

Hydro is a Cock Now; and Many has thought it is a Hen which will Lay Eggs infact Golden Eggs


Let them see the Golden Dreams in Hydro !!


Right time to churn the Portfolio and sticking back to Financial Dicipline !!


Let them buy the Chamatkari Cock which will Lay Golden Eggs

Both CHCL & BPCL are not in a mood to move forward. Can we conclude it as an end of hYdRoBull ?

Now only two companies can drive the bullish move in hydropower sector, they are CHCL and BPCL. Both are fundamentally sound companies and almost stationary in this massive HYDRO-rally. If these two companies remain untouched in coming days, HYDRO SUPER BULL will come to an end.

टर्बाइन घुमिसकेका राम्रो कमाई गरिराखेका जलविद्युतमा
भन्दा टर्बाइन नै नघुमेका घाटो जलविद्युतका सेयरमा झुम्मिँदै लगानीकर्ता
- बोलो राम राम

Disappointing economic data from China yesterday has created an opportunity for USD/CNY currency trader. This quarter is going to be a roller coaster ride & most profitable for USD/CNY pair traders. Be ready for the THRILL.

Sunrise First Mutual Fund (SFMF) declared 50% CASH DIVIDEND !!

Will it hit UPPER CIRCUIT TODAY ?? 🤔🤔🤔

@Somebody ji.

Bought MNBBL immediately after listing of primary share, may be a dacade back.
At that time MNBBL proposed 25% dividend, but NRB stopped them to distribute dividend indicating some irregularities. After NRB action, price dropped to 125. I ve started buying from that point. Price before NRB action was just above 150. Later I sold my principle share at around 1660 and still holding most of the BONUS. Thats why my cost is below zero.
Just imagine, if you have invested a million amount at that time .....

@dubosi ji, wow MNBBL at price below zero !!

how long had you been holding ??

Rising sun ji ,
"Trend is friend" -you are 200% right.
But the most important thing is you have to find the trend correctly. Otherwise, you may fall into an ambush.

Courage is important but more important is intelligent decision making.
Gud luck

My today's investment (ICFC) made capital gain of 15%....... almost 1.5 lakh.

I was planning to buy 1k today, 1k tomorrow, another 1k the next day. If I gather courage and bought all today, I would have made 4.5L.

That's not it, I have have been accumulating for last few days.



"Trend is friend" you should have more idea then me, Dubosi ji.