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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 10
Deepak ji is it right time to invest on micro finance or still need to wait for monetary policy ?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1259
Thanks Deepak ji for enticing us to invest in HOTEL sector last month.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
@Curiouskanxo I Will Share my view on Finance & Devleopment Banks after Monetory Policy !!

At the Current Juncture i Continue to have a Negative View in Hydropower Sector for Sure.

We have a sell Call on Multiple Hydro Companies for Target in Range of 120-163/-.

The Global Data suggests if any Particular INDEX breaks 10% from its TOP and continue to trade below it means the Bear Rally has started !! Which is well seen in Hydropower Sector !! For Individual Stock its 20%.

This is my Third Last Post for this Particular Thread, The Second Last Post will be posted After Monetory Policy only

Then the Final Post and end of my Post for this Particular Thread and a New Thread will be Opened.

Happy Trading !! God Bless All !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Fri Jul 16, 2021 5:47 am. »
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 10
Deepak sir kindly share your views on Finance and Development bank sector as well
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
At the Current Juncture One Sector which should be trimmed dowm immediately is Hydro Power, The Sooner it is trimmed down the more Healthy your Portfolio will Become.

Hydropower in the Past was a Good Technical Bet, But now the Scenerio has changed in the Technical Aspects too for Hydro Power Sector.

I won't be Surprised if Someone Sell 10 Kitta of Hydropower Stocks at the Current Juncture will have tendecy to get 20-30 kitta of Same Hydropower Stocks with the same Money after few months.

Apart from that the HIDCL Right issue in ratio of 1:1 worth 11 Billion NPR which will be the Actual Cash not the Leveraged cash will be sucked from the Trader and Investor from the Market. which is a Pretty Big Amount, Which will Trigger First to the Hydro Stocks.

We have Sell Call on Multiple Hydropower Stock with a Target Range from 120-163/-.

Disclosure : Kindly Consult your Charted Accountant before making an Investment Decesion in Hydro Power.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1259
JBB Bond 2087 9% and Muktinath Debenture 8.75% are better option iF anyone interested in DEBT MARKET. Adding 2.5% additional premium for old issue gives almost equivalent return of current relatively low yield issue.
In rapidly growing economy like Nepal, DEBT market doesnt attract investor, becoz you can increase your asset value many fold in equity market within short period of time. In developed world where economic growth is almost saturated, DEBT market are lucrative in some phase of DEBT/EQUITY cycle.
Now regarding change in rules , it cant be applied retrospectively. So previous NCD cant be converted into EQUITY. Any institution can issue fresh CONVERTIBLE OR PARTIALLY CONVERTIBLE DEBENTURES.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Yes as of Now its a NCD but let's compare and look at NIC ASIA DEBENTURE 082/83 which was last traded at 1246/- which has an Interest Coupan of 11%.

Including the Interest part also the max Value of that Debenture should be 1120. But was @1246/-

Why a Some Burger bought @ 1246/- either He is Big Fool or he knows something which General Public don't know.

If he is a Fool then it's just like Buying a Hydropower Shares whose earnings and Yield don't Justify the Current Market Value.

My Question is whether these NCD is likely to get Converted into Convertable Debenture ?? Is something cooking via Monetory Policy ??

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:24 am. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 787
Deepak ji must have gone crazy...talking nonsense . Probably his empty mero share account is having adverse effect on his brain...

All issued debenture are NCD, non-convertible debenture.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5485
You are funny.

Why do you always talk nonsense when you dont have shares or need to buy back?



Only convertible debenture can be converted, you cant change the rule in the mid way. Or there will be violent kranti.


If debenture price did increase, it may mean, interest due is coming or interest rate on FD is decreasing so that they are paying premium for already listed debenture which idiot CEOs promised to pay huge interest. Remember, those debenture holder will get close to 10% interest for around 8 year. And FD rate for corporate is a lot lower.


I thought you are gone for 6 month. What happened? could not leave the market??? Nasha or got info that NEPSE is heading for 5500 for the year.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Today (13 JULY 2021) i was observing the market and few things were Strikeing me in my Minds. Before what was striking in my minds i need to explain few theoritical things :-

1. Bond : A Kind of Financial Insturements which are issued by Financial Institution, Goverement or states, Central Bank, Muncipilaty and others, which gives a Fixed Earnings to the Bond Holder or the Creditors. If a Bank has issued a Bond, then BANK gives a Fixed Intrest to the Bond Holders or Creditors of that Bank.

2. Debentures : It is also somewhat the similar kind of financial Insturements as mentioned above and is used to Raise the Capital for the Institution and is less secured then Bonds.

3. But the Major Difference is that Bond can Never be converted into Equity Shares but a Debenture can be converted into Equity Shares.

4. Today I witness a strong up move in many listed Debentures of Multiple Debentures issued by Banks & Finance Companies such as NIC Asia, ADBL, Siddharta Bank,Sanima Bank, Himalayan Bank, Nepal Bangladesh Bank, Kumari Bank, ICFC Finance, Goodwill Finance, Manjushree Finance & Nepal Investment Bank.

5. Is something cooking through the Monetory Policy through which these Debentures are likely to get Converted into Equity shares / Public Shares ??

6. If so Happens why should I Buy shares of those Banks/ Finance shares @ 400-1000 range if i can get the shares via Debentures route in 110-120 range based on current Price of Debentures.

Disclosure : The Above statement is for Study Purpose only, One must throughly understand it or consult an Adviser before making such investment Decesion.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:02 pm. »
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 10
Thank you Deepak ji for your views. Hope there will trend reversal soon.
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 286
Deepak sir ले Nepse 2200 हुँदा वेचेर 2650 कटेपछि किन्नुभाे । अब २८५० मा बेचेर ३१०० मा Technical Data हेरेर किन्नुहुन्छ हाेला ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5485
I think, Deepak ji has half in cash and another half in hotel.

He is hoping, to buy at current price, praying, there be no rocket before he invest most of the cash.

He knows, whatever he be making in this year will be making from current cash investment, investment in hotel is total waste- wont be able to dump without major crash in hotel.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 787
so deepak_mm ji gonna buy same number of shares by paying more money after six months.


:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
As on Today we off-loaded all our remaining Shares in the Open Market. As today was the Last Deadline for us to Sell all our Holding i.e Ashad 28 2078 as part of compliance requirement to Close our Books of Accounts for the Current Financial Year.

Now we sitting on 95% Cash & only 5% Exposure we have in Mutual Fund & Debentures combined togather.

Now we going to take a 6 Month Break from the Market and will Enter the Market Most Probabely in Last Week of Poush 2078 Only.

Let's See What will be the New Impact / Changes in the upcoming Monetory Policy when New FM Comes, Whether that New FM will be Market Friendly or Not ?? Mr. Poudel is one the best FM for the Nepalese Capital Market.

Let's see what kind or Political Changes happens, and what Kind of Impact it happens in the Market.

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:03 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Now the Current Financial Year is likely to get over in few days.

Now what to Buy in the Market is the Big Question ??

The safe and most Reliable Bet at the Current Juncture is Mutual Fund.

After the End of the Financial Year the Mutual Find is likely to declare attractive Cash Dividends.

They are also likely to make killing money in recent IPO of Jeevan Bikas Laghubittya and ManaKamana Smart Laghubittya & Union Life Insurance.

Apart from that the Upcoming Big IPO of Madhyabhotekoshi Hydropower will also hit where they going to make another Big Money.

Buying Mutual Fund is just like applying an IPO.

In few weeks they are scheduled to Declare Dividends.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 286
माैद्रिक नीति बन्ने प्रक्रियामा नै छ, त्याे वेलासम्म बजार ३००० + भयाे भने केही कडाइ अवश्य हुनेछ । ठूला खेलाडीहरू माैद्रीक नीति अघि नै बजार बढाएर Exit हुँदैछन् जस्ताे छ ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Is Monetory Policy Leaked ??


Finance & Development Banks are on Fire Today :roll: :roll:
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 122
In a bull market, reasoning on fundamentals is useless. It's all about money supply. Even a nonexistent company could surge in a bull market. But one must be very disciplined to sell on the right time. Nonlife will roar. Let market take its time.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 141
@Deepakmm Didn't you say its all bull just a week and half ago? You came and pumped shitty hydros and hotels and now leaving people holding bags.
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 286
ननलाइफ घटाउन धेरै चलखेल भइरहेकाे जस्ताे देखिन्छ । विभिन्न मिडियाहरूले बाढीकाे 1.93 अर्व Claim पर्याे भनेर समाचार निकालेका छन् । पहिला भुकम्पकाे बेला एउटा सगरमाथा इन्स्याेरेन्समा मात्र ५ अर्वकाे Claim परेकाे थियाे, रिइन्स्याेरेन्सले व्यहाेरी हाल्छ नि के ठूलाे कुरा भयाे र । वीमा समितिले पूँजी वृद्दि गर्ने निर्णय गर्याे भने अहिलेकाे मूल्य दाेब्बर हुने देखिन्छ म चाहि नबेच्ने ।
म संग त २/३ हजार कित्ता मात्र छ है ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Yesterday Market Witness a Technical Bounce Back which was imminent after the Continious Day of Fall.

The Technical Bounce will get limited till Yesterday Level or has ability to get extended upto 2843/- the Max Level i feel so for this Technical Bounce Back.

The Notice Published by Beema Samiti dated 24 ASHAD states since the begining of the Heavy Rainfall which lead to Flood & Land Slides has resulted in the Claim of 1.93 Billion NPR as on Ashad 23, And i Feel these are the early Cliam Figures only more are yet to come, This is just the Beginning of the Monsoon Season only 2 months more to go as per data of the Metrological Department. I don't know what could be the Final Claim Data when the Monsoon Ends.

Apart from that Corona Beema Claim Settlement is yet an another Hangover for the Non Life Insurance Company.

As on Yesterday we are sitting on 83% Cash and was waiting for the Technical Bounce Back to Further Reduce down our Holdings. Now we have 2 trading session deadline in Hands i.e Sunday & Monday to Cut off our Position and Close the Books of A/c for the Current Financial Year.

As the date is coming close for the Monetory Policy Event, What my Guess is Monetory Policy is likely to favourable for Finance & Devlepoment Banks as there are Limited Number of Institution, But could be harsh on A Class Commercial Banks as there is need to Limit the Number Count of Commercial Bank, But Could be a Nightmare for the Micro Finance as Very Strong Corrective Measure are required as the Micro Finance has Florished like Mushroom and it has become a Big Headache for th Regulator to Monitor if Efficiently.

Note : These are my Personal Views only one must Study Well before making any Investment Decesion.

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:27 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5485
will bank be safe if share market is destroyed?

will share market be safe if bank is destroyed?

will nepal be safe if bank is destroyed?

will nepal be safe if share market is destroyed?


soviet russia destroyed their share market, today, there is no soviet russia but their share market has not just returned, but is one of the best performer lately.



country, bank and share market are enter related.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
NEPSE Continue to Form Ending Diagonal Patter as Per Elliot Wave Analysis.

DAY BY DAY Market is coming Closer to its Crucial Level of 2747/- which is Likely to Act as a Big Trigger for the Bear Market if that Level is Broken !!

Lots of Events on Card which are likely to Dictate the Next Direction of NEPSE :-

1. Current PM OLI & Ex. PM NEPAL will come with some kind of Political Conclusion or Not ??

2. The Retail Inflation Level has Soared, What Kind of Impact it will have on Capital Market ??

3. Whether Monetory Policy will Save Capital Market or Banking system ??

4. Technical Level of 2747/- will be Broken or Not ??

5. The Current Intrest Level will remain intact or Not after Shrawan 1 2078 ??

6. The Current NEPSE Turnover will Rise or Not ??

7. After 51 Stock List, When SEBON will be coming with New Stock List ??

8. Capital Increment Plan of BFI's if any will be VIA Force Merger or Not ??

9. To Finance the Goverment Expenditure Plan will NRB Suck Liqudity from the Banking System to Finance the Goverement ??

10. And Many More !! Let's see !!

Happy Trading !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
At the Current Juncture the NEPSE is Forming Ending Diagonal Pattern as Per Elliot Wave Analysis.

The Big Question is whether this Pattern will be Short Lived or Long Lived ???

There is Negligible to 00000 Activity from our Side in the Market till now he have already closed 95% of our Books Of A/c and remaing 5% will be closed by MAX 28 Ashad 2078.

At the Current Juncture we are sitting 79% on Cash , Of the remaining 21% Allocation we have 3% in Mutual Fund and 2% in Debentures and Remaining 16% is Equities.

By the End of Ashad we will come to the Clear Conclusion for the Next Financial Year Planning Whether to be a Bull Player or Whether to be a Bear Player in the Market.

NEPSE 2747/- Level is the Magic Number for Us, That will Guide us the Next Stragety for the Market, Let's see what will be Stragety for the New Financial Year.

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:45 am. »

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