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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 13
Thanks for the update. Waiting for the forecast.
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कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
NEPSE Continue to hold the Support Level @ 2385/- on Closing Basis.

Though has broken the Support Level on Intrday Basis Twice in 2 trading Session !!

6 (SIX) Sectros Still looks Bearish on Chart Which are :-

1. Life Insurance
2. Manufacturing & Processing
3. Non Life Insurance
4. Micro Finance
5. Other (NTC)
6. A Class Commercial Bank

These 6 Sector are in Bearish Trend that dosent mean that they will Continue to Fall on Daily Basis.
Some Technical Bounce Back is imminenet.

As NEPSE has taken Support near 2385/- Now onwards the Quantam of Fall won't be that Sharp in Nature till we break 2352/- but will be Slow and Steady in Nature Like a Sweet Poision.

But Even in this Market we are Bullish on 3 Sectros, which are :-

1. Devlopement Banks
2. Finance Companies
3. Hydro Power

On Thursday ( 5 Chaitra 2077) will be Updating Individual Stock Specific Buy & Sell Calls on Specific Companies with the Potential Target Price Forcasting.

Happy Investment !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
CGH ( Chandragiri Hills) is a Pure Greed Trap !!

Don't Try to Fish it !!

If you are caught on the Wrong Foot or Price then it has a tendency to give you 70% Negative Return.

I Repeat 70% Negative Return !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
The Current Support for the NEPSE is Pegged @ 2385/- though on Intraday basis it broke the Support Level but it manged to Close above its Support Level of 2385/-

Jai Ganesh Day (Tuesday) is an important Day for the Market, Whether the Market will Defend its Support Level or Not ??

By 12:30 Noon if market manages to trade above 2385/- Level then its time to Deploy Fresh Cash in the Market but if it fails to sustain above 2385/- then Actual Panic Sell Could Emerge in the Market !!

A Break Below 2352/- on Closing Basis will Open an Argument for the Bear Market !!


If we Enter the Bear Market then 85% of the Stock are likely to under Perform but only 15% Stocks will Outperform in the Market !!

Finger Crossed !! Let see what is the Destiny of the Market !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yesterday we witnessed a Technical direction based trades by many Investors.

Technical weak stocks were sold and Technically Strong stocks were bought !!


Apart from that we also witness selling by Weaker Hands of the market as part of the Accounting settlement with the Brokers.

As the Part of the Stragety we also sold 80% of our Portfolio worth 5% of our Cash Deployment but later covered those 80% which resulted our Average cost of Aqusition reduction by 1.25%.

Apart from that we also deployed additional 2.5% of our cash in the Market in 3 sectors.

Devlopement Bank, Finance and Hydropower.

Nifra is in our watch list and we are awaiting for 20 Billion Turnover to get over in Nifra. Then will take a Call whether to Add Nifra or Not in our Portfolio.

2385/- to act as Strong Support for Nepse, the +Ve aspect is Nepse managed to close above 2400 Physiological mark which is sign a big Relief for the BULLS.

The Panic Sell will emerge once Nepse closes below 2385/- on closing basis, As of now it is just a Accounting Settlement based Sell off followed by Technical Sell off only.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Inter Bank Lending Rates is a Barometer for Liqudity Position in the Banking System and is also an important indicator for the Possible Bank Interest rate in near Future.

The Rise of Possible 100 basis Point in the INTEREST RATE has already been factored in Stock Prices.

Quarter earning session still a month away so this data won't play much role in the Current Market SCENERIOS.

Market will Ignore Interest rate factor and Forecasted Earning factor in the Current context.

Now the Market will be focusing on only Technical Factors at the moment.

Bearish Indicator Stocks or Sectors will be sold and Bullish Indicator Stocks or Sectors will bought by the Traders in the Current week.

At the moment 6 Sectors are in the Bearish Trend which are :-

1. Life Insurance
2. Manufacturing & Processing.
3. Non Life Insurance.
4. Micro Finance.
5. Other (NTC)
6. A Class Commercial Bank

But 4 Sectors are in Bullish Trend which are :-

1. Devlopement Bank
2. Finance
3. Hydropower
4. Mutual Fund

Hotel and Tourism still Remain Neutral though it shows Bullish Pattern due inclusion of CGH in the Index.

Happy Investment :-
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
deepak_mm sir, could you please post the source (link to Kantipur ND) of those numbers. Significant decline in liquidity means business
has picked up and BFIs will be reporting higher profits in the quarters to come. If the decline is insignificant the economy might now be feeling effects of NRB's withdrawal of Rs 20B from the market last month. NRB probably felt that there was excess liquidity which can impact inflation rates. And so, if the need arises, as part of their monetary policy NRB can inject this money back into the economy. Liquidity is a cyclical game played by the central bank. As long as the companies keep reporting increased profits NEPSE will rise.

Although it's been reported that the month of March sees more selling pressure it may now have subsided. On the contrary, month of April seems to have great prospects for Nepse (higher return) in historical terms. Investors usually discount the future and so as we are already into the third week of March next week we may see buyers coming in early as those who wait until April 1st may have missed significant gains.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Today's Kantipur National Daily Page 11 Report Says :-

Reduction in Liqudity :-

Hint's for Interest Rate Rise.

Interbank lending rates @ 3.00%

Before Chaitra the Liqudity was @ 1.5 to 2.0 Kharab.

As on Wednesday the Liqudity stands @ 34 Arab.

A massive decline in Liqudity, gives a bit of uncomfert to Nepse BULLS.

Let see what's next !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Today is the last Trading Session of the Week.

We have also completed the Churning of our Portfolio. During Churning of Portfolio we booked marginal loss in some and Booked marginal Profit in some.

We have a Bullish View in 3 Sector which are Devlopement Bank, Finance and Hydropower but we have Bearish view in 6 Sectors.

Currently we are invested 5.00% of our Cash in the market.
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
Dubosi7 sir yes those are great principles. I follow a number of FMs - Dalio and Buffet stands out because their leadership is unbeatable. It just so happens our capital markets is immature so need more gut to heed their advice.

deepak_mm sir the policy will uniformly benefit all BFIs including micro and commercial banks and not just finance and dev banks. This is just a small portion of the massive loans required by Hydros. I believe this is exactly the reason why NIFRA was created. Rather than depend on a consortium of BFIs NIFRA will now work with and give out these big package loans to a number of existing and incoming hydros. So imagine the upscaling of profits NIFRA will be reporting on this sector alone as it will be taking away some business from the combined BFIs. And NIFRA is poised to give out big package loans on other sectors similar to this.

I would caution all readers to advice given on this and other forums. Naturally the posters tend to favor the shares they hold so your own independent research is a must.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
The Recent Re-financing Policy by the Central Bank where now HYDRO POWER with less then 10 Megawatt Capacity are likely to get Soft Loan @ 3.00 % Per Annum.

The Central Bank to allocate the 70% Fund via BFI and 20% to Direct Clients and 10% via Micro Finance @ 1.00% Per Annum.

NRB 70% allocation to BFI, 15% likely to go Finance Company, 20% likely to go Devlopement Banks and 35% to Commercial banks.

As there are very Handful of Devlopement Banks and Very limited number of Finance company, so their Share Yeild/ Output in the Soft Loan Disbursement going to Benefit the most to Devlopement Bank and Finance Companies and ofcourse Hydropower !!

So the Conclusion is Wealth will be created in these 3 Sector in year 2021, Which are Devlopement Bank, Finance Company and Hydro Power.

We have a Bearish view on 6 Sector and Bullish View in above 3 Sector !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Portfolio Churning is Going on from from our end.

Last Week Purchase when we had deployed 2.50% of our Cash after deployment of 5.00% of our cash in the Market in some we are booking Profit and in some we are booking loss as the Part of Portfolio Churning Task.

What we bought after the Stoploss Sell and bought back the Next Day on those we are Sitting on MTM Profit based on current Market Price. But their Delivery has not yet come in our Demat A/c.

Once the Delivery come for those Shares will Churn the Portfolio again.

Till then Cool and Calm. 😉😉
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2287
DalioBuff ji principle is absolutely correct in our context.
You must be inspired by legendry FM Ray Dalio who adviced to consider three major things while investing. I do follow this guys strategy.

- Spread out the risk
- Past doesnt gurantee future performance, so be careful while investing based on past performance.
- Ignore your GUT which most of us can't.

Jay Hos
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
If you ignore all information and strictly base your decision on technical analysis of a share price you may tend to believe that some sectors are in rally mode while others are in relief rally mode - however, all BFIs are intertwined with this one commonality: interest rates.

It is more than likely if commercial banks go down in price then dev banks and finance will follow suit. I believe a better investment strategy is to buy into the leaders of each sector of the BFIs and stay put rather than try to time the market strictly based on price movement. With the kind of volatility we have it is easy to get burned twice i.e. selling before price moves up and buying before price goes down. Be patient as the prices are coming in par with the valuations.
Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 13
Thank you @deepak_mm for such insightful update on such market turmoil.

Thank you.
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कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Once Upon a time in Mid 2019 there was Rally which stared from Micro Finance Sector followed by HDL, STC, SHIVAM.

Then The Rally started in Hydro Power then Non Life Insurance Sector in Late 2019.

Then the Bull Market started from 31 DEC 2019 then the Rally started in across All Sectors and we had broken the Previous All Time High NEPSE to New All time Hime @ 2600+.

These all were forcasted in the Past and over the Period of time Investors has created an enormous Wealth during these Phase :- Now What NEXT ?? Now Where the Wealth will be created ??

These are the Past Forcast Now What are we Forcasting for the Present Scenerio :-

As 6 Sector has already broken its Support Level but witness an Upmove is Defined under Relief Rally Segement

But 3 Sector didn't broke its Support Level but witness an Upmove is Defined Under Rally Segment

So the Investment theme for 2021 are 3 Sectors :- Devlopement Banks, Finance & Hydro Power.

All Banking Sector Stocks should be Swapped with Devlopment Banks Stocks Except few name like NICA, NMB & NBB as exception are always there :-

Micro Finance, Life Insurance & Non Life Insurance Sector Should be Swapped with Finance Stocks except few name like Nerude & Chimike.

Other Segment (NTC) should be swapped with Name Like BPCL,SHPC, CHCL, AHPC, UMHL,etc. etc. as Similar Kind of Dividend Paying Capacity and Similar Kind of Growth Rate :-

So the Conclusion is :-

Avoid or Sell Stocks under Relief Rally Segement except few as Exception are always there :-

Hold or ADD Stocks under Rally Segement as Wealth now onwards will be created in these 3 Sectors in 2021 Theme.

Disclosure :- The Above statement is for Study Purpose, One Must consult an Expert before making such Investment Decesions :-

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:03 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Last Trading Session (04 March 2021) We witnessed the Relief Rally in 6 Sectors Followed by Rally in 3 Sectors.

Many might the thinking what's is the differnce between Rally & Relief Rally :-

When any Paricular Sector Breaks its Support level and moves up is a "Relief Rally" and when a Particular Sector without breaking its Support Level and moves up is a "Rally".

When a Particular Sector sees a Relief Rally means 85-90% of the Stocks in that Sector don't have the tendency to Break its Previous High, infact has tendecy to move down further from its Current Price Level. Only 10-15% Stocks has the tendency to break its Previous High, as Exception are always there (The minimum Period assumption are for 12 Months).

When a Particular Sector sees a Rally then 75-80% of the Stock in that Sector has the Tendency to Hit New High in comeing days where 20-25% has tendecy to remain Neutral with +VE Bias (The Minimum Period of assumption is 12 Months)

So the Conclusion is :-

1. Now its the time to Add or Hold or Both Stocks in Sector defined under "Rally Segement",

2. Avoid or Reduce or Both Stocks in Sector defined Under " Relief Rally"

A) The Sector Under Relief Rally Were :- Life Insurance, Manufacturing & Processing, Non-Life Insurance, Micro Finance, Commercial Bank & Other (NTC).

B) The Sector Under Rally Were :- Devlopement Banks, Finance & Hydropower

Disclosure :- The Above statement is for Study Purpose only, One must Re-think and must Consult an Expert Advisor before making such Investment Decesion :-
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
My Pleasure @Seasonal Trader !!
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 42
Thank you Deepak jee for valuable insights. My first choice during correction were Upper, DDBL and SWBBL. Happy to see the green !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yesterday (04 March 2021) We witnessed the Relief Rally in 6 Sectors Followed by Rally in 3 Sectors.

Many might the thinking what's is the differnce between Rally & Relief Rally :-

When any Paricular Sector Breaks its Support level and moves up is a "Relief Rally" and when a Particular Sector without breaking its Support Level and moves up is a "Rally".

When a Particular Sector sees a Relief Rally means 85-90% of the Stocks in that Sector don't have the tendency to Break its Previous High, infact has tendecy to move down further from its Current Price Level. Only 10-15% Stocks has the tendency to break its Previous High, as Exception are always there (The minimum Period assumption are for 12 Months).

When a Particular Sector sees a Rally then 75-80% of the Stock in that Sector has the Tendency to Hit New High in comeing days where 20-25% has tendecy to remain Neutral with +VE Bias (The Minimum Period of assumption is 12 Months)

So the Conclusion is :-

1. Now its the time to Add or Hold or Both Stocks in Sector defined under "Rally Segement",

2. Avoid or Reduce or Both Stocks in Sector defined Under " Relief Rally"

A) The Sector Under Relief Rally Were :- Life Insurance, Manufacturing & Processing, Non-Life Insurance, Micro Finance, Commercial Bank & Other (NTC).

B) The Sector Under Rally Were :- Devlopement Banks, Finance & Hydropower

Disclosure :- The Above statement is for Study Purpose only, One must Re-think and must Consult an Expert Advisor before making such Investment Decesion :-
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
As on (03 MARCH) One More Sector joined the League of Bearesh Trend which is Other INDEX, which has Broken it Support Level.

The Bearish trend was Started by Life Insurance Sector then it was joined by Manufacturing & Processing Sector.

Then Non Life Insurance joined the party then Micro Finance also joined the Bearish Trend.

Then A Class Commercial Bank and Now Other Index Sector.

Hotel & Trading Sector still remain Neutral on Chart.

Investment Sector will turn Bearish once the Investment INDEX Breaks 80 Level.

Now even we are coming Closure of 2352/- Level on NEPSE which is a Sign of Worry.

Now these 3 Sector will only to able to Guide the Next Direction of the Market, Which are Devlopement Bank, Finance & Hydropower Sector :-

These 3 Sector need to be watched Now :-

1. Devlopement Bank INDEX Support Level is 2490/- Currently @ 2507.11/-
2. Finance Index Support Level is 1100/- Currently @ 1116.29/-
3. Hydropower INDEX Support Level 1900/- Currently @ 1909.36/-

Now the Bull has to Defend these 3 Sector at the moment to come Back in the Market !!

If these 3 Sector rally then only there will be follow on rally in all above 6 Sectors.

If these 3 Sector Support is broken then God Bless All.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Yesterday We went for the Stoploss Sell and Today We are Covering it Back !!

Yesteday in Stoploss Sell we booked 3.25% Losses on our Invested Money !!


Till now almost 60% Position Covered !!

Will Cover 100% by EOD.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
Leveraged Players would square off
Especially those who got slaughtered in last bearish cycle

Market must consolidate somewhere
That area of consolidation is the key area to pay attention to

Big Names are holding big shares
Market has gone independent now, there is no Big or Small now

A PERSON BULLISH
But at nights bear wanders and Bull RESTS

Hope market recovers as soon as possible

......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
The Flag bearer of the Bearish Trend was iniated by the Life Insurance Sector !!

Then it was joined by the Manufacturing & Processing Sector !!

Then Joined by Non Life Insurance Sector then Micro Finance.

But Day before Yesterday A Class Banking Sector manged to closed above it support level but Yesterday Broke its Support Level and entered the Bearish Trend too.

So At Present 5 Sector are in Bearish Trend which are :-
1. Life Insurance
2. Manufacturing & Processing
3. Non Life Insurance
4. Micro Finance
5. A Class Commercial Bank.


Yesterday STC hit 10% Upper Circuit on Speculation that company is likely to Get contract for Importing 20 Lakh Metric Ton of Fertilizer. If the speculation is True then STC may hit 25,000 Mark !! If they manages to make 1 RS margin Per 1 KG of Fertilizer that will fetch them Revenue of 2 Billion per Year.

If there is rise in Interest rate in Baisakh then the Major Beneficery of hike in Interest rate will be Finance Companies as they lost business from A class commercial bank due to lower Interest rates.

In the Current Market the Big could also become Pig to get Slaughter.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Jan 2021
Posts: 42
Thank you Deepak jee. I'm looking forward for select hydro mostly. Most of the fav scripts are now below 50MA and some like scb unl and cefl are below 200MA.

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