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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1262
Many compAnies are on GRAND SALE.
cHOOSE BEST cOMPANIES to buy.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1262
Market already closed below 1350.
Bottom ?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
NEPSE has formed a Doji Pattern on daily chart with slight negative Bias. Which indicates battle to continue between Bulls and Bear and volatility to remain.

The market likely to remain in the Broad Range of 1400 to 1465 which will likely to get narrow in days to come.

Bulls need to Defend 1402 Level in coming days and Bear need to defend 1465/- to have a strong control in the market.

Till the Upper or Lower range is broken it's like wait n watch. "Ramita Herni"

Let see the impact of Global news on NEPSE. Like Cornavirus, Crash of Global Shares Market, Strong USD and JPY. Soft Crude Oil Prices direction of Bullion Market. Of course the Yes Bank event. From this what our Regulator learn and measures or Policy changes they could make in order to safeguard the Depositer Money. The Policy Changes could impact the Price of Commercial Bank, Devlopement Bank, Finance and Micro Finance.

Whether it could be increase in CRR or SLR or Repo Rates or other instruments.

Stay Clam and watch Ramita only.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 141
Expect 50 points basis rate cut in the US by March 18.
Expect bail out plan for the airlines.
Expect helicopter money to the tune of $1200 per working family. The may even do middle class tax cut.
Expect aggressive intervention in the markets by the governments across the world. The Fed, BOJ and European Central Bank will vastly expand their balance sheets picking up bonds and even stocks from the market.

Then again, if Corona keeps spreading, no matter of money will help the stocks.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 141
What the bears couldn't do in NEPSE, can Corono do it? 1000 possible? God knows.
Double blow for the economy. The remittance coming from the oil producing nations in the Middle East may be jeopardized. Saudi, Russia and the US should settle their disagreements soon. Even then, the demand shock from corono virus for oil will be there.
Tourism for this year is gone to the hay basket. 8% of the economy.
If people start staying at home around the world and minimally partake in economic activities, will prices start to fall?
The drop in oil price is already deflationary in nature. The costs of goods should start falling. Is deflation going to be the problem rather than inflation?
On the other hand, interest rate may go down owing to rate cuts by the central banks around the world. This may be accompanied by fiscal stimulus in infrastructure spending, tax cuts and in some cases helicopter money. That may eventually drive consumption.
However, who knows in the short to the middle term?
Whole of the Northern Italy, a very critical economic region, is shutdown in Europe. Who knows if France and Germany is next? In the US, companies have started asking employees to work from home, if possible. The shale oil play got a gut punch by the oil war between the Saudis and Russia. If the price stays around $30 level, lots of small producers will have to close the shops, which in turn will hit small banks and private equities funding the oil exploration hard.
Australia is reeling. The commodity dependent economy which depends heavily on supplying China with raw materials will slow down due to China.
Today, Yen is rising against dollars which is detrimental to its export based economy. Not enough young people to consume there. Japan should take all our Nepalese workers from Malaysia.
Germany has had more than a quarter of negative growth. Canada and its carbon based economy is fvcked as well.

=====================================================================
Overall, a shitty situation worldwide. How insulated are the BFIs from slowdown in global economy and Tourism and remittance? For you observers, this is the link to monitor markets worldwide.

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

PS. Nepal Oil Corporation should make a killing this year.
« Last edit by simrik on Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:35 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1262
Global stocks are collapsing Monday as the novel coronavirus outbreak
S&P futures off as much as 5% and key Australian index on pace for biggest plunge since 2008
sensex already down by almost 900 (2.3%)

At least NEPSE is sustaining above 2 years High. Lets hope CORONA will not topple NEPSE height.
Aviation, Hotel and Insurance sectors are definitely going to suffer the most in coming days.
नेपालसहित १४ देशका नागरिकलाई कतार प्रवेशमा रोक
रेमिट्यान्समा कोरोनाको जोखिम

OMG :roll: :roll: :roll:
Banking sectors ve indirect effect later on due to rise in NPL, some of the government policies and reduced remittance.
Any one can guess the fate of HYDRO in such situation.

PASUPATINATH LE SABAIKO KALYAN GARUN
HAPPY HOLI
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:01 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
Happy Nari Diwas and Happy Holi in advance !!
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 141
Member
Registered: Jan 2020
Posts: 44
Dear Sir,
As profit in MFI will rise more in coming quarter also. The effect of corona virus seems most less in MFI. Is it safe to invest in MFI only sir.

Regards
Share03
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 626
Commercial Banks growth will be stagnant
Provisions for loans to hotel which cant keep up
Lending being stopped
Deposits piling up

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1262
Coming days are going to be worst for hotel sector
कोरोना भाइरसको प्रकोपसँगै पर्यटक आगमनमा गिरावट आएपछि होटल व्यवसायीले कामदारलाई आधा तलब दिने गरि विदा दिन थालेका छन्
कोरोनाको कारण पोखरामा संचालित होटलमा यतिखेर १० प्रतिशत भन्दा कम अक्युपेन्सी कायम रहेको
OMG
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
Among the over all sectoral Index these Sectors has already broken Crucial Support Level and are under full control of Bears :- The Sectors are Micro Finance, Finance, Development Banks, Non - Life Insurance, Manufacturing and Of Course Hotel.

In this 6 Sectors further Downside Momentum to Continue.

Other Index is Neutral Zone so no decesisive move.

Banking Index 1275/- is a Crucial Support, Life Insurance Index Crucial Support is seen @ 8165/- and Trading Index Crucial Support is seen at @ 865/- and Hydropower @ 1008/-.

In these 4 Index if crucial support level is broken then these will also join the Party of Bears.

If any Retreat happens these 4 Sectors will make Smart Move.

The Summay is these 4 Sectors should be watched throughly rest all except other Index category is a Pure Sell Call.

Use uptick in Price an Exit Oppurtinity for 6 Sectors and watch for other 4 Sectors.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:50 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
Yesterday there was again a Lot of Volatility in the market.

The Volatility seems to favour Bears though Bulls defended the downfall and manged to push NEPSE in +ve teritorry but when certain level reached again Bear got active and push down the market and again bulls fought back.

The Summary is it was just a mere a technical bounce back which was imminent after such fall from 1600+ odd levels.

This indicates many People are stuck at higher levels which will not let the market move up and any rise will be used as an oppurtinity by the players who are stuck at higher level as an exit oppurtinity.

Yesterday we also witnessed some Punter bought on expectation of technical bounce back and are likely to exit today for sure.

Micro Finance is a Pure Dump your shares stragety and forget it due to NRB Policy.

Smart and Big Players are still Net Sellers in the market as they think by Chaitra End the market will be @ 1200 odd level.

Who are willing to enter the market then this is not the right time to enter the market as let the Battle between the Bulls and Bear get over.

If you ask me which side of the Battle I am then I am on the Bear Side for sure.

Think twice thrice or five times before entering the market.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
The Recent Policy of the Central Bank (NRB) will have a devasting effect on Micro Finance Mcap.

The Micro Finance Index likely to Crash like a Crash Never seen Before. We have already exited 70% of our Micro Finance Portfolio since last Wednesday to till date and will exit remaining 30% also. We will bring 0 kitta holding in Micro Finance.

We for-see a start of a Bear Market in Micro Finance. Not a time to Buy even 10 kitta in Micro Finance, time to sell Micro finance at whatever rate u get. I forsee Micro Index to the same Place from where it started it's upward Journey.

God Bless You !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
New History And Record Made in NEPSE !!

Cake katyo ki katena NEPSE le 🤔🤔🤔
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5489
Biggest crash in the history of Nepal.


Congratulations.







Remember, corona hits negative people harder, just like cancer.





Nepal may be wasting billion every year on KP Oli's treatment, indirectly as well as directly. Instead of wasting billion per year on that las, if we had spent on building communicable disease treatment center.................. we would have had hospital and we would have gotten read of that danav.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
Shooting Star Shot Down the Bulls. 😉
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
As said in the Previous note that Market Volatility has increased a lot with Market Bredth in favour of bears.

As said Bears will take the advantage of Volility and Market Breath which are in their favour and will take the control of the market on Sunday.

Finally bear took the control of the market yesterday. NEPSE was 70+ point down from Intraday High.

If we look at chart, market some what shows the pattern of Shooting Star which will get confirmed today. But personally I feel it is a Shooting Pattern without awaiting for the confirmation for the Next Day. 😉

Market Bears has also managed to Break 1596 level which was the closed level of NEPSE on 26 Feb 2020.

Right now market is like a falling Knife it won't be wise to catch the falling Knife till the Downfall Ends with Consodilation.

Thursday and Sunday we were Net Sellers and Today also we will remain Net Sellers. Every Rise is like a Sell Oppurtinity for us.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:00 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
Online Portal ma kehi news aako xaina about land slide move ?? 🤔🤔 :(
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1262
सेयर बजारमा पहिरो, कारोबार रकम ५ अर्ब नजिक

What is the reason ?
Incessant buy by GREEDY INVESTORS or OFFLOAD by HEAVY WEIGHT player ???
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
1000 gang started selling from Thursday and will continue to remain Net Sellers.!!

Now 1000 gang, name is 1200 gang now !!

Let see what is actually cooking in 1000 gang.

🤔🤔🤔
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5489
Both party from 1000 gang are not behind current bull. Third party has entered who are behind the bull. The Dragon has entered.



1000 gang was behind the crash to 1100. Same gang members had to sell a lot of shares to meet their cash need for their business, industry.

1000 gang entered later during current bull and existed or stock in micro and insurance and hydro. They made some good profit but market kept on increasing. They have missed bfis train too.

Analyzing last few days of trading, 1000 gang did sell some shares, and created volatility. But the dragons kept on investing and NEPSE kept on going upward.

We are seeing some correction in micro and insurance. But bfis have hardly increased and a lot more to grow.

Early few days, 1000 gang sold their bfis shares and bought insurance and micro. And we saw drop in bfis shares.

This time, its just the opposite.


There may or may not be correction any time soon. But if there is correction, it wont be for too long nor there will be big correction. There is a long way to go, so selling is risky than holding or buying. If you dont have confidence. Hold.





Never forget, real bull will start after 3rd qtr.


Entered the dragon!
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:18 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
Once again the Volatility Index of NEPSE has spiked up to an alarming level.

We Witnessed the Battle between the Bulls and Bears on the last trading session i. e. Thursday !!

Looking at the Market Bredth i. e. Advance and Decline ratio which are in the favour of Bears !!

Sunday Bears will take the control of the market as Market Bredth and Spike in Volatility are in their favours.

Investors and Traders who are long on the market should keep a Strict Stop-loss. Unwilling to keep Stop-loss may turn into a big nightmare.

A Lehman Stragety is exit on high and enter at low.

Rise in Volatility and Negative Market Breath is an early sign of fall.

Your money and so the Profit and Loss are also urs.

Think on it may be 2, 3 or 4 times and take the Right Decesion.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5489
I know its easy to teach, tell others the right thing, but hardly, the teacher can follow it himself.



Remember what you said, just a few month ago. Investors make mistakes "by selling too early during bull and exit too late during bear". And this is the bull. And actual bull will start after third qtr.



And this is what I have been saying for last 6/7 year- "It is more painful when market increases just after you sell than market decreasing just after buying". Cause during, market falling after buying, hope keeps us alive.










Market is suppose to be at 3500 at this time. But we are just at 1600.

There are new big investors entered into the market. Even when market falls due to short seller, they keep on buying and market eventually have been increasing. You can check the buying and selling pattern.

Even if there is correction, it wont be for long and wont be big. But, if you miss the ship, you be paying for air ticket. :mrgreen: So holding is the best option. If you dont have guts, you do not buy for an hour or a few day but selling no no. Especially when bfis are still way way undervalued.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1779
Once again the Volatility Index of NEPSE has spiked up to an alarming level.

We Witnessed the Battle between the Bulls and Bears on the last trading session i. e. Thursday !!

Looking at the Market Bredth i. e. Advance and Decline ratio which are in the favour of Bears !!

Sunday Bears will take the control of the market as Market Bredth and Spike in Volatility are in their favours.

Investors and Traders who are long on the market should keep a Strict Stop-loss. Unwilling to keep Stop-loss may turn into a big nightmare.

A Lehman Stragety is exit on high and enter at low.

Rise in Volatility and Negative Market Breath is an early sign of fall.

Your money and so the Profit and Loss are also urs.

Think on it may be 2, 3 or 4 times and take the Right Decesion.

Happy Investment !!

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