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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 20
despite of satisfactory report, microfinance price is declining
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 320
Deepak sir ले Nepse 2200 हुँदा वेचेर 2650 कटेपछि किन्नुभाे । अब २८५० मा बेचेर ३१०० मा Technical Data हेरेर किन्नुहुन्छ हाेला ।
भनेकाे मिल्याे नि ? :D :D
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
MICRO INDEX HAS GIVEN A STRONG BULLISH BREAK OUT ON DAILY CHART AND HAS ALSO ENTERED AN UNCHARTED ZONE.

WE HAVE FURTHER INCREASED OUR HOLDING IN 30% OF THE LISTED MICRO FINANCE STOCKS WITH SKBBL (SANA KISAN) BEING OUR FAVOURATE PICK.

IN LAST 2 DAYS WE HAVE FURTHER DEPLOYED 10% FRESH CASH IN MICRO FINANCE SECTOR AND STILL SITTING ON 70% CASH AT THE MOMENT.

WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN BULLISH IN MICRO FINANCE SECTOR WHICH IS A COMBO OF FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7382
So you are sitting on 80% cash during bull and pre super bull.

No wonder, you have not been doing good as market, since bull began.

During depression, you correctly predicted, cause you are just negative.


Wonder how you sold hotel stock? you did not sell it to mutual fund, did you???
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
As on Today We have old holdings of 3.5% Holding in Mutual Fund, 1.5% Holding in Debentures & 3% Holding in Hotel.

Over a Period of Multiple Days we have incresaed our holdings in Multiple MICRO FINANCE from 0% to 11% and from 0% to 1% in NBL. We had deployed 5% Cash in Hydro power as a Pure Technical Play only and as on Yesterday we reduced our Holdings back to 0% in Hydro power Sector.

At Current Juncture we have following Exposure :-

1. Mutual Fund 3.5%
2. Debenture 1.5%
3. Hotel 3%
4. Commercial Bank 1%
5. Micro Finance 11%
6. Sitting on Cash 80%.

Technically SKBBL (Sana Kissan) has formed Bullish Flag Pattern on Daily Chart and is getting ready for the Next Big Move, Once it continue to trade Above 1865/- and Continue to Hold the 1865 mark confirms a strong Bullish Break Out and thus the Stock entering an Uncharted Zone, Once a Stock enter an Uncharted zone it is very Difficult to Predict its Upper Price Range. It's Like Sky is Limit Kind of Scenerio.

SKBBL is one of my Favourate Scrip in MICRO Finance Space as in the Past AHPC, UMHL & SPDL was my favourate stock in Hydropower Space, UFL, RLFL & CFCL was in Finance Space and KRBL, SINDU & GRDBL was in Devlopement Bank Space.

Once the Micro Finance Index breaks the Resistance Level we are likely to Buy Agressive in Micro Finance Space. Till then we are using any Dip in Price as a Pure Buying Oppurtinity in Micro Finance.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Aug 02, 2021 6:11 am. »
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 20
Deepak ji is it right time to invest on micro finance or still need to wait for monetary policy ?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2282
Thanks Deepak ji for enticing us to invest in HOTEL sector last month.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
@Curiouskanxo I Will Share my view on Finance & Devleopment Banks after Monetory Policy !!

At the Current Juncture i Continue to have a Negative View in Hydropower Sector for Sure.

We have a sell Call on Multiple Hydro Companies for Target in Range of 120-163/-.

The Global Data suggests if any Particular INDEX breaks 10% from its TOP and continue to trade below it means the Bear Rally has started !! Which is well seen in Hydropower Sector !! For Individual Stock its 20%.

This is my Third Last Post for this Particular Thread, The Second Last Post will be posted After Monetory Policy only

Then the Final Post and end of my Post for this Particular Thread and a New Thread will be Opened.

Happy Trading !! God Bless All !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Fri Jul 16, 2021 5:47 am. »
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 20
Deepak sir kindly share your views on Finance and Development bank sector as well
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
At the Current Juncture One Sector which should be trimmed dowm immediately is Hydro Power, The Sooner it is trimmed down the more Healthy your Portfolio will Become.

Hydropower in the Past was a Good Technical Bet, But now the Scenerio has changed in the Technical Aspects too for Hydro Power Sector.

I won't be Surprised if Someone Sell 10 Kitta of Hydropower Stocks at the Current Juncture will have tendecy to get 20-30 kitta of Same Hydropower Stocks with the same Money after few months.

Apart from that the HIDCL Right issue in ratio of 1:1 worth 11 Billion NPR which will be the Actual Cash not the Leveraged cash will be sucked from the Trader and Investor from the Market. which is a Pretty Big Amount, Which will Trigger First to the Hydro Stocks.

We have Sell Call on Multiple Hydropower Stock with a Target Range from 120-163/-.

Disclosure : Kindly Consult your Charted Accountant before making an Investment Decesion in Hydro Power.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2282
JBB Bond 2087 9% and Muktinath Debenture 8.75% are better option iF anyone interested in DEBT MARKET. Adding 2.5% additional premium for old issue gives almost equivalent return of current relatively low yield issue.
In rapidly growing economy like Nepal, DEBT market doesnt attract investor, becoz you can increase your asset value many fold in equity market within short period of time. In developed world where economic growth is almost saturated, DEBT market are lucrative in some phase of DEBT/EQUITY cycle.
Now regarding change in rules , it cant be applied retrospectively. So previous NCD cant be converted into EQUITY. Any institution can issue fresh CONVERTIBLE OR PARTIALLY CONVERTIBLE DEBENTURES.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Yes as of Now its a NCD but let's compare and look at NIC ASIA DEBENTURE 082/83 which was last traded at 1246/- which has an Interest Coupan of 11%.

Including the Interest part also the max Value of that Debenture should be 1120. But was @1246/-

Why a Some Burger bought @ 1246/- either He is Big Fool or he knows something which General Public don't know.

If he is a Fool then it's just like Buying a Hydropower Shares whose earnings and Yield don't Justify the Current Market Value.

My Question is whether these NCD is likely to get Converted into Convertable Debenture ?? Is something cooking via Monetory Policy ??

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:24 am. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
Deepak ji must have gone crazy...talking nonsense . Probably his empty mero share account is having adverse effect on his brain...

All issued debenture are NCD, non-convertible debenture.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7382
You are funny.

Why do you always talk nonsense when you dont have shares or need to buy back?



Only convertible debenture can be converted, you cant change the rule in the mid way. Or there will be violent kranti.


If debenture price did increase, it may mean, interest due is coming or interest rate on FD is decreasing so that they are paying premium for already listed debenture which idiot CEOs promised to pay huge interest. Remember, those debenture holder will get close to 10% interest for around 8 year. And FD rate for corporate is a lot lower.


I thought you are gone for 6 month. What happened? could not leave the market??? Nasha or got info that NEPSE is heading for 5500 for the year.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Today (13 JULY 2021) i was observing the market and few things were Strikeing me in my Minds. Before what was striking in my minds i need to explain few theoritical things :-

1. Bond : A Kind of Financial Insturements which are issued by Financial Institution, Goverement or states, Central Bank, Muncipilaty and others, which gives a Fixed Earnings to the Bond Holder or the Creditors. If a Bank has issued a Bond, then BANK gives a Fixed Intrest to the Bond Holders or Creditors of that Bank.

2. Debentures : It is also somewhat the similar kind of financial Insturements as mentioned above and is used to Raise the Capital for the Institution and is less secured then Bonds.

3. But the Major Difference is that Bond can Never be converted into Equity Shares but a Debenture can be converted into Equity Shares.

4. Today I witness a strong up move in many listed Debentures of Multiple Debentures issued by Banks & Finance Companies such as NIC Asia, ADBL, Siddharta Bank,Sanima Bank, Himalayan Bank, Nepal Bangladesh Bank, Kumari Bank, ICFC Finance, Goodwill Finance, Manjushree Finance & Nepal Investment Bank.

5. Is something cooking through the Monetory Policy through which these Debentures are likely to get Converted into Equity shares / Public Shares ??

6. If so Happens why should I Buy shares of those Banks/ Finance shares @ 400-1000 range if i can get the shares via Debentures route in 110-120 range based on current Price of Debentures.

Disclosure : The Above statement is for Study Purpose only, One must throughly understand it or consult an Adviser before making such investment Decesion.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:02 pm. »
Member
Registered: May 2021
Posts: 20
Thank you Deepak ji for your views. Hope there will trend reversal soon.
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 320
Deepak sir ले Nepse 2200 हुँदा वेचेर 2650 कटेपछि किन्नुभाे । अब २८५० मा बेचेर ३१०० मा Technical Data हेरेर किन्नुहुन्छ हाेला ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7382
I think, Deepak ji has half in cash and another half in hotel.

He is hoping, to buy at current price, praying, there be no rocket before he invest most of the cash.

He knows, whatever he be making in this year will be making from current cash investment, investment in hotel is total waste- wont be able to dump without major crash in hotel.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
so deepak_mm ji gonna buy same number of shares by paying more money after six months.


:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
As on Today we off-loaded all our remaining Shares in the Open Market. As today was the Last Deadline for us to Sell all our Holding i.e Ashad 28 2078 as part of compliance requirement to Close our Books of Accounts for the Current Financial Year.

Now we sitting on 95% Cash & only 5% Exposure we have in Mutual Fund & Debentures combined togather.

Now we going to take a 6 Month Break from the Market and will Enter the Market Most Probabely in Last Week of Poush 2078 Only.

Let's See What will be the New Impact / Changes in the upcoming Monetory Policy when New FM Comes, Whether that New FM will be Market Friendly or Not ?? Mr. Poudel is one the best FM for the Nepalese Capital Market.

Let's see what kind or Political Changes happens, and what Kind of Impact it happens in the Market.

Happy Trading !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:03 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Now the Current Financial Year is likely to get over in few days.

Now what to Buy in the Market is the Big Question ??

The safe and most Reliable Bet at the Current Juncture is Mutual Fund.

After the End of the Financial Year the Mutual Find is likely to declare attractive Cash Dividends.

They are also likely to make killing money in recent IPO of Jeevan Bikas Laghubittya and ManaKamana Smart Laghubittya & Union Life Insurance.

Apart from that the Upcoming Big IPO of Madhyabhotekoshi Hydropower will also hit where they going to make another Big Money.

Buying Mutual Fund is just like applying an IPO.

In few weeks they are scheduled to Declare Dividends.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 320
माैद्रिक नीति बन्ने प्रक्रियामा नै छ, त्याे वेलासम्म बजार ३००० + भयाे भने केही कडाइ अवश्य हुनेछ । ठूला खेलाडीहरू माैद्रीक नीति अघि नै बजार बढाएर Exit हुँदैछन् जस्ताे छ ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2080
Is Monetory Policy Leaked ??


Finance & Development Banks are on Fire Today :roll: :roll:
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 130
In a bull market, reasoning on fundamentals is useless. It's all about money supply. Even a nonexistent company could surge in a bull market. But one must be very disciplined to sell on the right time. Nonlife will roar. Let market take its time.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
@Deepakmm Didn't you say its all bull just a week and half ago? You came and pumped shitty hydros and hotels and now leaving people holding bags.

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