Forum


ShareSansar Main Page

New Topic

2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

Moderators: बिमलमान, Dilbert.

Post Reply

Page: « < ... 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 > »

Author Post
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
@Dubosi7
> Those hydro-power already in operation with good cash flow and significant debt will get the maximum from this provision. Bet on the most undervalued one - there are few.

Any suggestions?

Second question. Are hydros the most to gain from this monetary policy? As much as I understand, it is. And maybe some microfinance. Can you share your views on this?
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
@deepak_mm

> Upper, Rasuwa, Shangen their Balance Sheet clean up Process will take time.

Did you mean they are not good for short term? (beginner here). In my view, they will good return in long term because of low interest and have most to gain but they may not provide short term profit. Would that be correct?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1175
If the causative agent is Viagra, it will last long.
Amateur will turn flaccid shortly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Nepali Terminology on Chart Analysis :-

NEPSE HAS FORMED SHIVALINGA ON DAILY CHART.

🤣🤣
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1175
CHCL,AHPC and BPCL will not get maximum benefit by the reduction in interest rate for privileged sector/rescheduling.
Those hydro-power already in operation with good cash flow and significant debt will get the maximum from this provision. Bet on the most undervalued one - there are few.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Prime Focus should be on those Hydro Companies which has Cash Flow and whose debt are reducing at faster pace.

Lower Intrest rate will increase their EPS thus Dividend Payout yield will improve which will also impact on Compuded reduction in Debt. Thus Clearing the Balance Sheet.

Upper, Rasuwa, Shangen their Balance Sheet clean up Process will take time.

So I would Pritorize those Mid size Hydro Companies where I see attractive returns like :-

AHPC, AKPL, SHPC, Radhi, Ridi, UMHL, NAGDI, BPCL, CHCL, etc. etc.

During Up-move all will move up but these are likely to be safe and Smart Bets.

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1175
Compulsion to invest at least 10% of the bank investment portfolio in HYDRO sector will definitiely bring down the interest rate in this sector, which is going to to increase the profitability of hydro companies which have already started electricity generation. Those who ve already distributed profit are the DARK HORSE of coming bull.
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
@deepak_mm Sorry for dumb question!

Few posts ago you mentioned, "Avoid those Hydro Power company where cash flow has not yet started like Upper i.e the Production has not yet started. ". But won't those hydros have most to gain from low interest compared to profit making hydros?
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5379
8)
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
The Interest rate has Fallen Drastically across all Segment of Loans offered by the Banks.

The Monitory Policy will tighten how much on the Dividend Payout for the Banking & Finance Industry is a Big Question mark as of now. :D

The Major Beneficiary of soft Interest Rate will be Hydro Power Sector which will reduce its Cost of Operation due to Lower Interest rate thus improving its Cash Flow and will result in better Financial Performance, Dividend and Bonus Payout.

After being on Cash for long time and thus after the closure of the Last Fiscal Year. Yesterday onward i.e(Shrawan 1) We entered the Market and our Major Bullish Bets were in Hydro Power & Non Life Insurance Segments.

Apart from that we have also raised our Bullish Bets on NTC too due to Softening Interest rates due to Strong Fall in Call A/c Interest Rates.

I Foresee the Bull to Take charge of the Market for the TGT of 2100 in this New Financial Year and Foresee 1800+ Level on NEPSE By Dashian.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 32
सानीमा हाइड्रो को शेयर मुल्य कस्तो छ? दुइवर्ष पछी मिडल तमोर, लिखु हरु बनेर भ्याएपछी ३५% सम्म दिन सक्छ भन्छन। BPCL पनि सस्तो छ भन्ने सुनिन्छ।

खराब हाइड्रो र राम्रो हाइड्रो को लिस्ट कता पाईन्छ ? अर्को पाँच दश वर्ष सम्म को आम्दानी को प्रक्षेपण सहितको लिस्ट भए लगानिकर्तालाई सजिलो हुने थियो।
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
After Ashad my Bullish bets will be in Non-life Insurance and Hydro Power.

Softening Intrest rate to give big benefits to Hydro Power Sector. As cost of Intrest to reduce a lot for Hydro Power Sector thus benefiting them to increase in Profits and were a Sector which was most insulated against Covid 19 Crisis.

Increase in liquidity in Banking Sector will make cost of fund further Cheaper for Hydro Power Sector who plan to increase further browsing for expansion.

Avoid those Hydro Power company where cash flow has not yet started like Upper i.e the Production has not yet started.

Time to stick those Hydropower which is giving bonus or cash dividend or both.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Dear L_M JI

Actually i am on leave till Ashad Masant !!

Will be active from Shrawan Onwards.

8)
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 43
Deepak sir, I am missing your updates....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
As said last time market has seen a lot of Volatility and has broken the crucial support level of 1352/- when it hit 6% lower circuit. As said Bear has full advantage of it and Yesterday was the crucial level to be watched again whether we break 1352/- or not. As yesterday was the last battle for the Bull and finally Bull lost against the Bear.

This open an argument again we have entered the Bear market after the break Down of 1352/-.

But due to Corona Phobia, Yes Bank Phobia and Chinese trader Leverage loss exit Phobia give a reason for the discount for the support level of Bull market to continue until or unless we don't break 1256/- instead of 1352/-.

1300/- to act as Physiological Support.

Even if the Bear Market starts the value Picks are there in 2 Sectors.

1. Non Life Insurance stock which are near 400 +/- 20

2. Hydro Power Stocks which are near 100 +/- 20.

Irrespective of Index movement stock specific action will be there. Today we will be Purchasing stock with the concept of Cherry Picking ideas among multiple Sectors.

Happy Investment.!!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
The market it witnessing a lot of Volatility in last few session.

Some times 6% lower Circuit then again 5% up and then again down by more then 3%.


As the market has broken 1402 level and has also closed below 1352/- when it hit 6% lower Circuit.

The crucial break down of Technical level gives a strong advantage to Bears.

Today is very Crucial day to be watched as level of 1352/- is a very important level. Infact that is the last battle zone for the Bulls to survive in the market.

If we break 1352/- on closing basis again then again we might enter the Bear Market.

Finger Crossed let's see what is on Card !!

Stay Safe !! Stack up essential needs @ Home. But make sure that others also needs of those things so balance act should be done.
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:54 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1175
महालक्ष्मी लाइफ इन्स्योरेन्स कम्पनीका प्रमुख कार्यकारी अधिकृत रमेशकुमार भट्टराई करिब ८० लाख बिमित रहेका नेपालमा कोरोना भित्रियो र नियन्त्रणबाहिर गएर महामारी फैलियाे भने भने बीमा क्षेत्र तहसनहस हुने बताउँछन्
https://www.onlinekhabar.com/2020/03/843225

More than 60 cases already recorded in India.
Nepal is likely to ve significant number of COVID-19 in coming days becoz its sandwitched between tow giants with large patient load. Its difficult to predict the exact number going to be infected. Considering mortality rate of around 3% situation can be dangerous.
Life insurance ve to pay the committed amount if mortality and Non life will get affected due to health insurance claim and cargo insurance.
Better is to choose safe sectors.
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:38 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5379
1000 gang has been scattered.


I believe 1200 gang have max 3/4 week left to crash to 1200. After that .........


1200 gang member- hathway, teska bau ko lagani


Am I 50% right?

60% right?

90% right?
or
99% correct? :lol:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
This 1000 Gang has changed their name to 1200 gang.

Who is the master mind of this Gang ?? 🤔🤔

🤔🤔🤔

Will this 1000 Gang will achieve their Target ??

What u think Mr. Rising Sun ??
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1175
PLIC bonus just 12.5%
Why to pay 555 to get 12.5% return ?
Most of the general and life insurance companies disappointed investors this year.
Next year may be more disastrous if they ve to pay hefty amount to there client.
We dont ve the habit to listen before its too late. Be careful this time.
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:55 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1175
Many compAnies are on GRAND SALE.
cHOOSE BEST cOMPANIES to buy.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1175
Market already closed below 1350.
Bottom ?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
NEPSE has formed a Doji Pattern on daily chart with slight negative Bias. Which indicates battle to continue between Bulls and Bear and volatility to remain.

The market likely to remain in the Broad Range of 1400 to 1465 which will likely to get narrow in days to come.

Bulls need to Defend 1402 Level in coming days and Bear need to defend 1465/- to have a strong control in the market.

Till the Upper or Lower range is broken it's like wait n watch. "Ramita Herni"

Let see the impact of Global news on NEPSE. Like Cornavirus, Crash of Global Shares Market, Strong USD and JPY. Soft Crude Oil Prices direction of Bullion Market. Of course the Yes Bank event. From this what our Regulator learn and measures or Policy changes they could make in order to safeguard the Depositer Money. The Policy Changes could impact the Price of Commercial Bank, Devlopement Bank, Finance and Micro Finance.

Whether it could be increase in CRR or SLR or Repo Rates or other instruments.

Stay Clam and watch Ramita only.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 139
Expect 50 points basis rate cut in the US by March 18.
Expect bail out plan for the airlines.
Expect helicopter money to the tune of $1200 per working family. The may even do middle class tax cut.
Expect aggressive intervention in the markets by the governments across the world. The Fed, BOJ and European Central Bank will vastly expand their balance sheets picking up bonds and even stocks from the market.

Then again, if Corona keeps spreading, no matter of money will help the stocks.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 139
What the bears couldn't do in NEPSE, can Corono do it? 1000 possible? God knows.
Double blow for the economy. The remittance coming from the oil producing nations in the Middle East may be jeopardized. Saudi, Russia and the US should settle their disagreements soon. Even then, the demand shock from corono virus for oil will be there.
Tourism for this year is gone to the hay basket. 8% of the economy.
If people start staying at home around the world and minimally partake in economic activities, will prices start to fall?
The drop in oil price is already deflationary in nature. The costs of goods should start falling. Is deflation going to be the problem rather than inflation?
On the other hand, interest rate may go down owing to rate cuts by the central banks around the world. This may be accompanied by fiscal stimulus in infrastructure spending, tax cuts and in some cases helicopter money. That may eventually drive consumption.
However, who knows in the short to the middle term?
Whole of the Northern Italy, a very critical economic region, is shutdown in Europe. Who knows if France and Germany is next? In the US, companies have started asking employees to work from home, if possible. The shale oil play got a gut punch by the oil war between the Saudis and Russia. If the price stays around $30 level, lots of small producers will have to close the shops, which in turn will hit small banks and private equities funding the oil exploration hard.
Australia is reeling. The commodity dependent economy which depends heavily on supplying China with raw materials will slow down due to China.
Today, Yen is rising against dollars which is detrimental to its export based economy. Not enough young people to consume there. Japan should take all our Nepalese workers from Malaysia.
Germany has had more than a quarter of negative growth. Canada and its carbon based economy is fvcked as well.

=====================================================================
Overall, a shitty situation worldwide. How insulated are the BFIs from slowdown in global economy and Tourism and remittance? For you observers, this is the link to monitor markets worldwide.

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

PS. Nepal Oil Corporation should make a killing this year.
« Last edit by simrik on Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:35 am. »

Post Reply

Page: « < ... 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 > »

Sharesansar Forum Powered By Miracle Hub