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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
As Finally NEPSE has manged to close above 1452 @ 1462.03. with volume above 2.6 Arab.

As NEPSE manged to close above 1452/- so therefore a 100 Point Non-Stop Rally is expected from 1452 level to 1552/- or Above !!

I won't be Surprise If Today NEPSE closes with a 6% UPPER circuit or the threshold Circuit Level implied by NEPSE.

The News is also cooking among the Investor & Traders for the Potential Change of Finance Minister around the Corner.

Once this happens this will act as an another BIG Trigger for the Bulls, which will take NEPSE to hit another new 52 week or ALL time High !!

Our Prime Picks continue to be Non-Life Insurance & Hydro Power.

As few Sick Debt Laden Hydro power companies might be acquired by some Prominent Players.

The Lead in the Hydro Sector rally will be taken by SHPC ( Sanima Mai Hydro Power )

After Listing of NRN infra @ good rate has developed appetite for Investor to have afresh look into Hydro Power Sector.

Once the Liberty get listed then we could witness the overall Strong rally in Hydro Power Sector.

Among Insurance 3 companies 1. NRIC ( Nepal Reinsurance ), 2. NIL ( Neco Insurance) & 3. PRIN ( Prabhu Insurance) has given a very strong Bullish Breakout, i won't be surprised these stocks hitting 1000/- mark before Dashian.

NEPSE target of 1800+ before Dashian still Intact.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:58 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
Currently the Most Bullish Stock on Non Life Insurance are :-

NRIC ( Nepal Re-insurance)

NIL ( Neco Insurance )

PRIN ( Prabhu Insurance )

All these 3 stocks has given a Strong Bullish Break out heading for the Target of 980-1045 /-

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
The Bears tried to break the market multiple times where 1382/- was very strongly defended by the Bulls.

Bulls took the market to 1400+ level where Bear Again attacked the market using the Curfew Implementation news for 10 days. Letting the market to go below 1400 Physiological mark.

As the market again Surpassed 1400+ level on closing basis with stronger volume indicates that Bear are on their Back foot again with bulls steping ahead for forward March for the Target of 1800+.

Once NEPSE surpass 1452/- Level on closing basis then there will be Non stop 100 Point Rally in NEPSE.

My major bullish bets are on Non life Insurance and Hydro Power.

My NEPSE Target of 1800+ still intact before Dashian.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1169
Huge sum will be paid in near future to CORONA infected people under कोरोना बीमा scheme. All non life insurance companies profitiability is going to be hit by this pandemic. Under this scheme there is no re-insurance by foreign re-insuarance companies. Local companies ve to bear all the burden.
Imagine the scenario - if 10% of people infected by the corona virus and only 10% of the infected people fall under कोरोना बीमा scheme ???

Use your knowledege before jumping into risky asset.

No doubt, Hydropower sector is going to win the race, but only those hydropower with good governance and corporate culture.

जय होस्
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
Yesterday Bull defended the Support Level of 1382/- which is considered as a very good sign.

The Bull need to defend that level and need to Surpass 1400/- Level in order to continue its dominance in the market.

A surpass above 1400/- on closing will lead to flocking of Bears to cover its short Position.

A surpass above 1452 will lead to strong rally of 100 points on the NEPSE.

I am utilizing every correction or dip in the market as a Pure Buying Oppurtinity.

My strong Bullish bets are on Non Life insurance and Hydro Power. And aggregate bullish bets on Banking and Life insurance.

Happy Investment !! 😊😊
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
The de-growth in Profit in the Banking Industry due to Covid - 19 is more or less is already priced in their Stock Prices.

So there is no need to Panic looking at the Financial Statement as there only de-growth in their Profit only not losses incurred by them. :(

The Analyst were expecting an average de-growth of 22-23% but the industry surprised their estimates by beating with big margin. Any fall in Prices due to Panic Investors should be used as a Pure Buying Oppurtinity.

Non-life Insurance has witnessed a strong growth among the multiple Sectors listed in NEPSE thus out performing by strong margin which are in Bull Radar.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Jul 2014
Posts: 99
DMM is always readable. Using your own conscience with his is absolutely profitable business in all scenarios.
It's my experience.

Keep doing this good job. Thanks.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
The Broad based Selling by the Paniced Investor due to Shut Down imposed news by the Government which was witnessed in last few trading sesson seems to be Over.

After the end of Panic Phobia selling now the fresh Buying Intrest has emerged which was seen in Yesterday Trading sesson.

The recent strong Result posted by Everest Insurance, Now once again Non life Insurance Companies will on traders radar followed by High Networth Individual too.

Every Dip in the market is a Pure Buying Oppurtinity as NEPSE is well poised for 1800+ mark before Dashian until or Unless the NEPSE is only closed for trading activity.

Our major Picks will be Non Life and Hydro Scripts.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
NEPSE still under Consodilation mode with Bullish Bias.

The activity in Hydro Sectors has increased since last 2 trading session and today also strong activity will seen in Hydro Sectors.

Once NEPSE surpass 1465 on closing basis then the conclusion comes that the Consodilation phase is over and Next Leg of Strong Up-move will be on card for 1565/- Level.

There will be multiple Dark House in the market. Put your bet on those Dark Horse.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 518
deepak_mm जीले बोल्यो कि ठयाक्क मिल्छ त,

बधाई छ deepak जी, तपाइका follower बढेकोमा,

अब नामै तोकीदिने होकी नयाँ लगानीकर्ताहरुका लागि,

फुल नपार्ने बुढी कुखुरीको नाम पनि l
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1169
Those HYDRO in the range of 100 - 125 having capacity to distribute 8-15% dividend will be the CENTRE OF ATTRACTION in todays market
for which Deeak ji used the metaphor - "फुल पार्ने पोथी"
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
Yesterday Market witnessed the Churning of Portfolio by the traders where they were exiting the Portofilo which were in good gain and buying Intrest was seen Hydro shares.

In lehman term :-

"Ful pari sake ko pothi bechde and ful parni pothi kinde"

The Conclusion is Traders Focus has shifted on Hydro Power after a long time.

I won't be surprised by seeing Multiple Hydro Power Companies hitting Upper Circuit Today.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
NEPSE is showing sign of Consodilation in tha range 1440-1480 before going for a next Break Out.

Once 1480 is level is broken on closing basis we will witness a Fresh Up-move Momentum for the Next Target of 1565/-.

Hold your Breath in next few session the NEPSE will catch up the Strong Bullish Momentum for the Target of 1800+ before Dashian.

Once the Hydro Sector catch up then non stop rally will be witnessed in Hydro Power Sector. It's just a Silence before big Tornado.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
Today I was going through the Kantipur Daily.

The News says due to Lock Down the Bank could not collect Intrest income of around 40 Arab approx after adjustment.

If I scrutinise it I would say the Bank Loan Book saw a growth of additional 40 Arab Approx due to Covid 19 as on Ashad Masant.

No impact on NPA growth for sure as on Ashad Masant due to recent Monetory Policy of NRB.

Banks likely to publish Good Result despite Covid Effect.

This will further trigger the Bull activity on NEPSE.

Who didn't paid Intrest or EMI to bank their Present Loan will get compounded for sure. 😉😉

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
Finally NEPSE has filled up the Bullish Gap up opening by coming closer to 1438-42 level near 1444 level which was a must to further increase the average the Buying rate of NEPSE Stocks.

As per the Chart pattern NEPSE today likely to form Bullish Kicker pattern today after the Government announcement of Opening of Lock Down which will act as a Big trigger for the New Bullish Momentum and lucrative Loan Schemes by the Bank.

It's a Buy on Dip Market for the TGT of 1800+ before Dashian.

Overall Sector to Outperform in Percentage wise Non Life Insurance and Hydropower to Outperform.

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
On Shrawan 1 NEPSE Closed @ 1394.77

On Sunday & Monday there was consecutive 2 Gap Up opening for the NESPE which took the NEPSE till 1562.20 Level, which war triggered by the NASTY Traders activity.

In technical term when ever there is Gap up Opening then the GAP need to be filled up in the coming Consecutive days or trading session. Based on the Retracement formula of GAP UP Opening fill up the Calculated Figure says the NEPSE need to come till 1438-42 to complete the Gap Fill UP Cycle to make further Up-move.

IF NEPSE moves up without filling up the GAP then Up-move could be Risky in Nature.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
@Dubosi7

Thank you. Being a beginner, the sheer no of options is overwhelming when everything is new. I will look in those and some others. Thanks again.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1169
@ noneedtosearch
It is not appropriate to quote particular script in such a public forum.
Since you ve asked, i can name some of them - SHPC,UMHL,NGPL, HPPL etc
These companies are in early growth phase and apparently healthy. Dont have inside info to judge there actual health.
Analyze the balance sheet,market price, probable return equation before jumping to the boat.
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
@Dubosi7
> Those hydro-power already in operation with good cash flow and significant debt will get the maximum from this provision. Bet on the most undervalued one - there are few.

Any suggestions?

Second question. Are hydros the most to gain from this monetary policy? As much as I understand, it is. And maybe some microfinance. Can you share your views on this?
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
@deepak_mm

> Upper, Rasuwa, Shangen their Balance Sheet clean up Process will take time.

Did you mean they are not good for short term? (beginner here). In my view, they will good return in long term because of low interest and have most to gain but they may not provide short term profit. Would that be correct?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1169
If the causative agent is Viagra, it will last long.
Amateur will turn flaccid shortly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
Nepali Terminology on Chart Analysis :-

NEPSE HAS FORMED SHIVALINGA ON DAILY CHART.

🤣🤣
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1169
CHCL,AHPC and BPCL will not get maximum benefit by the reduction in interest rate for privileged sector/rescheduling.
Those hydro-power already in operation with good cash flow and significant debt will get the maximum from this provision. Bet on the most undervalued one - there are few.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1730
Prime Focus should be on those Hydro Companies which has Cash Flow and whose debt are reducing at faster pace.

Lower Intrest rate will increase their EPS thus Dividend Payout yield will improve which will also impact on Compuded reduction in Debt. Thus Clearing the Balance Sheet.

Upper, Rasuwa, Shangen their Balance Sheet clean up Process will take time.

So I would Pritorize those Mid size Hydro Companies where I see attractive returns like :-

AHPC, AKPL, SHPC, Radhi, Ridi, UMHL, NAGDI, BPCL, CHCL, etc. etc.

During Up-move all will move up but these are likely to be safe and Smart Bets.

Happy Investment.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1169
Compulsion to invest at least 10% of the bank investment portfolio in HYDRO sector will definitiely bring down the interest rate in this sector, which is going to to increase the profitability of hydro companies which have already started electricity generation. Those who ve already distributed profit are the DARK HORSE of coming bull.

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