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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5379
You have never been useful to me.

You can start by telling me what would be the breaking point for dev bank and its first, second and third target.


Just like finance, dev banks are very cheap compared to income and its supply is very limited but supply is more than finance and easily increase price with a few billion.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Yesterday we Exited another 11% of our Portfolio from Nepse with just mere 9% Holding now at Current Level.

Yesterday we reviewed the Finance Sector and built up Long Position in Finance Stocks but managed to Deploy only 00.20% As you all know we were need to Sit in Q on mercy of some Seller to match our Bids 😊

Banking Index still has a Strong Resistance @ 1283 level, until or unless it don't break that Level and continue to remain above 1283 mark for 2 consecutive trading days doesn't convince us to buy on Banking Stocks.

Finance Sector is one Sector which has given a Strong Bullish Break Out Yesterday. Its not only about Bullish Break Out but along with Bullish Break Out it has also entered an Un-charted Zone.

If anything enter an un-charted Teritorry Zone then "Kune Mai ka Laal" TA or Expert also can't Pedict its Resistance Level, using any available Tool. If some one says so then he is simply Lieing.

We can Only Guess may be this or that could be the Level. 😊

So the Conlusion is Finance INDEX will go to which level I am also Clueless, Fundamentally Still very Cheap based on PE Multiple and Technically What you all know that by Now.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:52 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 529
deepak_mmजी,


:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: अति राम्रो,

धन्यवाद l
Member
Registered: Apr 2018
Posts: 30
Me
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 86
WHO STILL BELIEVES AND READS THE BULLSHIT OF DEEPAK_MM??
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
In Last 4 Trading session from Monday to Thursday we have been in Continues Profit Booking Mood.

In Last 4 trading days we emptied our Holdings by 80% as Our Projected Profit Figure was easily achieved due to Euphoria in the Market.

We sold off across multiple sectors even those Scarp stocks too :mrgreen: :mrgreen: which were Fundamentally weak and are Generally never bought by us :mrgreen: :mrgreen: but were bought as it was looking Technically strong.

Our Bets on those Scraps stocks also gave us a good Return :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

As we sold off 80% that doesn't mean that we are Advocating that Market will Fall or it has to Fall. The Only thing is we have Downgraded Our NEPSE Target of 1800+ Before Dashain to 1552/- which is achieved and in-fact 20 Points higher then our given Target on the Closing Basis.

Currently we Hold only 4 Hydro Power, 4 Non life Insurance, 2 Life Insurance and Last but not the Least 1 Finance Company which was added on Last trading session Only.

Among the 4 Hydro we will SELL OFF 2 out of 4 companies & in Non Life Insurance 2 out 4 and 2 out of 2 or 100% in Life Insurance in coming week trading session and no sell off in Recently added 1 Finance Company where we just added mere 5K kitta only. :P :P

We are reviewing the Finance Sector as we are currently sitting on 80% Cash and are Planning to Deploy 11% Cash in the Finance Sector.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 529
deepak_mm तपाइको कुराबाट अलि confusion बढेर आयो त,

यसमा पक्कै २ वटा कारण हुनुपर्छ,

१) आफ्ना(तपाइको) विचार follow गरेर बजारमा किन बेच गर्नेहरुलाई सहि मार्ग निर्देशन गर्न

वा

२) बढेको बजारमा आफ्नो stock बेची सकेकाले, मार्केट घटाएर फेरी खरिद गर्न,

के गर्ने के गर्ने ?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Yesterday Nepse Closed in the +ve territory witha gain of 5.36 Points thus closing @ 1541.30/-

Despite Closing on +ve Territory, it is not convincing us to ADD Stocks in our Portfolio, We have been continuously Booking Profit since Last 3 Days in the Market.

Overall We are Selling in the Market as Multiple factors suggest us there will be a strong correction in the Market.

The Cancellation 3800 trades has further dampen our Bullish Mode in the Market.

Our Previous Target of NEPSE of 1800+ Before Dashian is now finally Withdrawn looking at the Multiple Factors, The Target is Revised @ 1552/- which has been already Hit by the Market.

Most of the Stocks we are Exiting expect 11 Stocks which is for our Long term Prospective.

The Softer Interest Rate Party likely to fizzle out soon as NABIL BANK one the Leading Bank of NEPAL has come up with 9% Interest Rate on Fixed Deposits, so the Other Banks are Likely to Join the game with higher Interest Rates then NABIL.

Now the NEPSE will be in the control of the Bears which will thrash the Market to 1508 Level for Sure.

Now we Need to be watch whether Bulls are able to Defend 1508 Level or Not ??

Who already booked Profit Good, who haven't then Profit Booking is advised and take the Cash Out of Table and Enjoy the Dashian.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:23 am. »
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 32
Khatiwada's power is already very diminished. If people like Bishnu Paudel or Pradip Gyawali are appointed in finance ministry, it is difficult to see how they will obey Khatiwada.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
After Hitting 1552/- Level the NEPSE has started the Correction and this Corrective Phase could extend till 1508/-.

We are witnessing the reduction in the Turnover which will discourage Bulls to Buy Further at the Current Level and will Encourage Bears to Press Sell Button.

Now the Bear has got the Technical Advantage on the Daily Technical Charts.

Let see How the Market Reacts to the appointment of Former Finance Minister Dr. Y. Khatiwada as Vishesh Adviser to the Prime Minister, where Market Gossips says Indirectly Dr. Khatiwada will be having all Decision making Power of Finance Ministry but only in the documents his Signature will be Missing. :D :D

As the Market reduces the Brokerage Houses will also slash the Limit Exposure given to its clients which will further Dampen the Mood.

Bhadra 25 & 28 transaction on NEPSE whose exact status of Clearing & Settlement yet not known.

Today in the early morning i.e "Bhrama Murata" session, we felt the Shock Waves of the Earth Quake, Hope there is no Earth Quake in NEPSE too when it opens.

If anything like Earth Quake kind of scenario happens in NEPSE today, it would be just Mere Coincidence Only.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
As the NEPSE has achieved our First Target of 1552/- , thus Partial Profit Booking was advised Yesterday in Sectors which has witnessed a good Run UP.

Investors are advised not to take FRESH Long Position for the time being as CDS has freeze all clearing and Settlement for All transaction Executed on Bhadra 25 and all transaction executed till 2 PM on Bhadra 28.

Is these because of Technical Issue or Something else ?? till the cloud of uncertainty is not clear Fresh Long Position (BUY) is not at all Advised.

Reliance Life Insurance (RLI) has been in continues Upper Circuit since its Listing, The Today Upper Circuit rate of (546) should be used as a good Exit Opportunity from the Retail Investors, But Still it trades in thin Volume then the Next Day Circuit Level or Round Figure Level of (600) should used for sure.

I Hope CDS issue is mere related to Technical Issue Only, If it is something else then we would be Selling Heavily in the Market as if there is No Tomorrow for us, Even Loss are to be Booked in our Position we won't mind Booking Loss too.

And the NEPSE BUY Target of 1800+ before Dashian will be downgraded to SELL for Target of 1380 before Dashian.

Happy Investment !! :) :)
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:32 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
NEPSE has achieved Short term Target (1) of 1552/-

Partial Profit Booking is Advised !!

Happy Investing !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
The NEPSE continue to Form Higher Top & Higher Bottom Pattern with a Strong Bullish Pattern along with Strong Turnover of 3.38 Arab despite technical issues on TMS.

The Lead is taken by Non-Life Insurance and thus by Hydro Power.

Every Profit Booking Procedure which take place in Non Life Insurance is easily absorbed by HNI & PCG which indicates that the Bulls are here to stay for the Longer Period in Non Life Insurance.

Yesterday Finally the Hydro Power Index gave the Bullish Break out closing with 3.64% gain on the INDEX thus closing @ 1143.53. Today the Hydro Power Index movement just need to confirm the bullish Break Out. In order to confirm the Bullish Break out it need to stay Above 1126/- which is 17.53 Points below its Yesterday Close Level.

Mr. Market already knows something which General Public Don't Know which is the Beauty of the Market.

My Bullish Bets continue to remain in Non Life Insurance & Hydro Power Sector.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:42 am. »
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 32
hydroko barema one insightful article.

https://ekantipur.com/opinion/2020/09/13/160000571168747704.html
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 67
HNI & PCG = AINT HERE FOR LONG RANGE GAME

ENJOY THE MUSICAL CHAIR


what would be the best strategy then sir? should we enjoy on the musical chair rather being prudent investor for long time?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 602
NEPSE is certain to rise

& STOCK MARKET was never about BUYING

& STOCK MARKET is always about the SELLING AT THE RIGHT TIME

HNI & PCG = AINT HERE FOR LONG RANGE GAME

ENJOY THE MUSICAL CHAIR

MORE LEVERAGED = MORE THRILLING = MORE PROFIT = MORE LETHAL = I LIKE IT

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
NEPSE continue to Form Higher Top and higher Bottom with Bullish Bias and every Sell off by Retail Investor is being bought by the HNI (High Net-worth Individual) & (PCG)Private Corporate Group, which simply Indicates the Shares Ownership is changing from the Weak Hands to More Stronger Hands.

Non-Life Insurance Index has Given the Bullish Breakout on Wednesday & and the Break out is also confirmed on Thursday and Non-Life Insurance stocks are among the Favorite Picks among My HNI & PCG Clients.

Hydro-Power INDEX is very close to Bullish Break-out, some factors & Events almost close for a Strong Bullish Break Out for HYDRO-Power INDEX such as :-

1. MCC likely to get Passed with Certain Amendments which itself is a Big- Trigger, Which will Boost Transmission Line Infrastructure & Connectivity, where Wastage of Energy by Producers will be controlled.

2. Independent Energy Producers Corporation of Nepal Lobbying for change in Hydro Power Project Handover tenure from Existing 30 Years to 50 Years.

3. Soft Interest Rate by Banks will start showing improvement in Margin of Hydro Power Companies where Major Chunk of their Income goes as expenses towards Interest re-payment.

4. Many Merger and Acquisition Process under exercise in Hydro Power Sectors, Which will further Un-Lock the Values of the Hydro Companies.

5. Last but Not the Least the Tenure of Mr. Kul Man Ghising, the Executive Director of NEA is expiring on 28 Bhadra 2077, Re- Appointment or New Face taking the charge will further Boost the Market.


So the Final Conclusion is Whatever ever direction the NEPSE goes these 2 Sector will be the Out Performer infact the Star Performer, thus we still continue to have Strong Bullish Bets on these 2 Sectors.

Disclosure : The report is for Study Purpose only and should not be considered as recommendation.


HAPPY INVESTMENT :D :D
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:41 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
After a good Run up the Bulls were taking the breath for few days and are again charged up for new up moves.

The Bullish momentum is still intact for Nepse for the Target of 1800+ Before Dashian.

After the relaxation on the locked down getting effective from today which will further boost up the investor sentiment and today being the last trading session of the week the Bulls take the full advantage of it.

Bulls will Chase mainly Non life Insurance and Hydro-power keeping one thing in mind Sky is the Limit.

Our Bullish Picks remains in NRIC, NIL, NICL, PRIN, IGI, SIL,HGI, AHPC, SHPC, BPCL, RHPC, AKPL, etc. etc.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Today Trading Pattern further suggest that Investor Count is further increasing who are churning their Portfolio.

Shifting from BFI to Non Life Insurance & Hydro-powers.

Slow and Steady the Investors flavors are changing.

It's all about time, some time an Investor Like to Eat Sweet dishes , Some time Savory, Sometimes Salty, Sometimes Sour, This is the Truth which is Bitter in Taste.

Happy Investing !! :D :D
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5379
So you want to attack bfis just to make some profit from insurance?????



Never sell BFIs to buy insurance people.

Some big players can increase price of insurance (whose market share is far far lower than bfis, but their trading volume has been very high than banks) but they wont be able to sell it.

If they stop buying, price will fall. If they try to sell, insurance will crash.

I dont know how high they can take the price of insurance but one thing is clear, the final count down will start when dividend season starts.

When dividend season starts, bfis price may double, but when insurance whose price is 700-1500 announce 7-15% dividend, no one will be able to close the flood gate.

BFIs whose dividend is 7% is priced at 150. Or far less. CFCL.



Take your head out of your butt for once in a while and do some calculation.


This dividend season, BFIs price will sky rocked cause of low interest rate, high liquidity and foremost, way undervalued.

Within a few months after the vaccine is introduced, economy will become vibrant, when most of business increase at once, the growth, demand will be unprecedented, and whose business will go vibrant first- bfis and also insurance too. That day too, bfis' interest rate will still be low and enough liquidity will be there thanks to big positive balance of payment due to on going down in import.

Mark my word.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Three Days of continuous churning of Portfolio is observed in the Last 3 trading sessions. Many of the Long terms Investors are shifting their Portfolio from Banks to Non Life Insurance & Hydro Powers.

Many of the Mutual Fund & PMS too are reducing their exposure in Banks and are Increasing their Exposure in Non Life Insurance & Hydro-powers.

As the Banking Industry has higher weight-age on NEPSE, thus NEPSE is seen in the Sideways to Corrective Direction i.e Lang Lang kind of Movement.

NEPSE 1483/- is one of Strongest Support Level whose break down in unlikely, Despite Sideways Movement there will Strong Stock Specific movements in Non Life Insurance & Hydro Powers.

As the days passes on there will be more and more Stronger Movements in the above mentioned 2 Sectors.

RLI Strong listing could lead to Re-rating in the Insurance Sector which could lead strong moves in some of the Insurance companies.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Dear Saturnian just to clarify you i am Deepak_MM Only Nepse King is not me, though He/She i don't Know use my Post only.

Yes i am Still Bullish on the Market for the Target of 1800/- before Dashian, Well i was aware of the fact that some of the Crazy traders might try to Make an Upper circuit in early trade in thin Volumes which is not good for the Market, Yesterday we did Put Sell orders in order to avoid Upper circuit which was later covered slow and steady by us by End of the Day.

Apart from that we also witnessed some Smart traders booking profit in few stocks to Deploy Money in Today Listing Candidate RLI (Reliance Life Insurance ) to make quick trading Profits.

We are Still deploying Money is Non-Life Insurance & those Hydro Power stocks which has Cash Flow and avoiding or neglecting UPPER, Shangen & Rasuwagadi which has 0 (ZERO) cash flow, God Know's when it will start cash flow.

Our Hydro Bullish bets are mainly in AHPC, AKPL, SHPC, BPCL, API, RHPC & RADHI, though we like CHCL too but we haven't deployed any cash in it b'coz its stronger Net Margin is due to Higher PPA rate only.

Among Hydro AHPC looks the most stronger stocks on Charts and Yesterday it gave a Big Bullish Break Out signal along with 10% Upper Circuit on Strong volume and also Closing at 52 WEEK HIGH. these Parameter Suggest minimum mind my word "Minimum 45% appreciation".

RLI decent Price listing could lead us for thr Re-rateing for Over All Life Insurance Sectors where till now we don't have much Bullish Bets.

Disclosure : "I got allotment of 10 Kiita in RLI via IPO in my Personal Name and will add 1000 Kitta in my Personal Name via Secondary Market "

Happy Investment !! :) :)
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:14 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5379
Market depth of today: there was not enough buyer but big sellers were at very high. Could be possible, those sellers were there to make gullible sellers to sell at low.

Market may have fallen 10 points, but after crash there was not desperate selling.


Selling seems to be not profit booking but rather trying to stop bull. Seller seems to be trying desperately to stop the circuit to stop smaller and medium buyers and crashing market. If they were real sellers to book profit, they would have sold little by little, not desperately.
Member
Registered: Apr 2018
Posts: 30
Deepak_mm aka Nepse King sir Lai euta question
Are u Still bullish on the market for tomorrow ki Aja ko market depth dekhera opinion change garney :lol: ?
« Last edit by saturnian_211 on Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:03 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 268
१२०० बाट १५०० पुगिसकेकाे बजारमा Circuit लाग्ने गरी बढ्ने सम्भावना रहदैंन । First Quarter Report Fear का कारण सकेसम्म असाेज मसान्तसम्ममा Market उचालेर बेच्ने ध्याउन्नमा ठूला लगानीकर्ता रहेका छन् । Today's Session पनि अहिलेलाइ उचालेर बेच्न खाेज्नेहरूकाे भिडन्तमा परेर राताे भएकाे हाे । CIT Delear final approval मा पनि यस्तै अवस्था हुने देखिन्छ । असाेज मसान्तसम्म बढीमा बजार १७०० पुर्याएर बेच्ने र त्यसपछि केही समय सक्दाे घटाएर किन्ने प्रयास हुनेछ ।

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