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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
The NEPSE SKY Rocketed with a Massive Gain of 75.02 Points and Hit an All time High of 1970.78 and finally Closed @ 1968.27.

As Said Earlier that If Mr. Dhakal looses FNCCI Election then Market will See Strong Correction but the victory of Mr. Dhakal resulted in a strong Erection of the Market with a Record Turnover of 9.22 Arab never seen Before in the History of NEPSE on a single Day.

As said Earlier Also NEPSE need to Hold above 1881 Till Monday (30 NOV 2020), If it manages to Hold above 1881 Mark till 30 NOV. If it manages to Hold above 1881 Mark till Monday then Next Target for NEPSE is Pegged @ 2465/-
But Failure to Hold above 1881 Mark on closing Basis then the NEPSE will Head Toward 1665/- Mark.

Finger Crossed !!

Let See the Market on 30 NOV 2020. A Day to Remember in the History of NEPAL.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 1255
बिहान ४ बजे देखि सक्रिय हुने यस फोरमका सदस्यहरुलाई धन्यवाद :mrgreen: :mrgreen: ,

यसैगरि share बजारका 'हाकिम'हरु पनि सक्रिय भइदिने हो भने,

बजारको बिकाश र विस्तारमा कति टेवा पुग्थ्यो होला ?

खाली जागिर खाने थलो मात्र बनाए,

लगानीकर्ताको सुबिधा सोच्दै सोचेनन,

BANK विस्तार बढ्ने सुरसार देखियो,


होल्ड गरेर राख्नु भएकाहरुलाई बधाई :D :D !
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 90
Banking and development banks will go for a rally, hope it will last for a week ...
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
deepak holds 0% of banking shares...how is he even employed??

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2282
"IF Mr. Chandra Dhakal Looses FNCCI Election then Market might See a very Strong Correction"
Corollary for above statement If Mr Dhakal wins,then market will SKY ROCKET :lol: :lol: :lol:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
DhakalJee Was bound to win
Everybody knew that before
DhakalJee Wins and Good For Market is just a rumour for those not in touch with business world

......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Oct 2020
Posts: 29
Dhakal ji wins which may be good thing for the market, what say?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Congratulation for Market Hitting all time High of 1926.56 and Finally Closing @ 1893.24 /-

Yesterday (Wednesday) we just wait N Watched and Today (Thursday) again We Sold Off to such extent that now we hold 0000000 Kitta in Banks & Development Banks.

Now we are sitting on 83% Cash and Hold just 17% in our Portfolio.

Now We have Zero Holding in Banks, Development Banks, Life Insurance, Micro Finance & Trading Sector.

Now Our 17% Portfolio Constitutes of Only Non Life Insurance, Finance, NTC, Shivam & NRIC Only.

As said earlier NEPSE need to Hold Above 1881 Level till Monday (15 Magshir) if Holds above the Magic Number of 1881 then NEPSE Next Target is @ 2465/- If it fails then NEPSE will Head Towards 1665/-

FNCCI Election is very Crucial as per many Market Experts.

IF Mr. Chandra Dhakal Looses FNCCI Election then Market might See a very Strong Correction.


Finger Crossed !! Let see What Happens.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 1255
FNCCI Elections,

अम्बिकाजीले जित्नु भएमा,

market लाई फाइदानै पुग्ला 8) 8) !
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
25 NOV 2020 (Wednesday) Mostly Wait n Watch by us and slight churn of Portfolio.

NEPSE made a Strong Move with gain of Impressive 64.70 Point Gain.

26 NOV 2020 (Thursday) the Last trading Session of the Week and Crucial day before FNCCI Elections.

Let See If NEPSE manages to close above the Magic Number of 1881/-

IF NEPSE Manages to Close above 1881 & remain Above 1881 till Monday then the NEXT Target of NEPSE is 2465/-

Currently we are sitting on 56% Cash Now and 44% holding only in the Market.

Let see Whether the Bull Cocktail Party is Over or the Bull Cocktail Party has Just Began !!

NEPSE 2465 or 1665 Finger Crossed.

Irrespective of whichever Direction the NEPSE goes we are Bullish on Non Life Insurance.

Shikhar Insurance & United Insurance we ignored a bit as they were losing their Market share of their Business.

But the Recent updated 4 Month Data till Kartik 2077 Shows that there is Bounce Back in their Market share which is attracting us Back to these 2 hela gareko Non Life Insurance company by us.

On the Other Hand Both SICL (Shikhar Insurance ) & UIC (United Insurance) is forming interesting Chart Pattern with Strong Bullish Candle.

AJOD has already hit our Short Term TGT of 650/- and Now Heading towards the Medium Term Target of 756/-

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 130
Deepak jee, can you share your stories why you are putting so much voice against Life Insurance Companies?

Technically, they are very much active for the last one year. Life Insurances moved parallely with MFIs bull in late 2019. Life Insurances have also gained much after lockdown was lifted. The capital gains are comparable to those with Manufactures and Others sector.

Fundamentally, 19 Life Insurances have collected 11.5 arba premium compared to 9.88 arba premium collected by 78 Non life insurances.

So I'm very much curious why you and your dearest teams/investors/clients do not hold even 1% in your portfolio?

Love to read your comments as always :D
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 91
KASTO RAMRO KURA GARNU HUNXA DEEPAK_MM DAJU LEY.
BANK BECHNU BHAYO REY, THANK YOU VERY MUCH, PERSONALLY AAFULEY TEI UTHAKO CHHU SAKDO.
STILL YOUR COMPANY IF REAL IS EMPLOYING YOU!!!!
VERY GOOD COMPANY AND INNOCENT PEOPLE/INVESTORS.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
In Last 3 Trading Session we sold off 55% of our Portfolio.

On Sunday we Sold off 30% and Bought 5% Net 25% of Portfolio was Sold off on Sunday.

On Monday We Sold Off 20% and Bought 5% Net 15% was Sold off on Monday.

On Tuesday We sold Off 20% and Bought 5% Net 15% was Sold off on Tuesday.

So Now we are Sitting on 55% Cash. Now Everyone might be thinking Which Sectors we Sold Off and What was Bought !!

Actually We Sold off Banks & Development Banks Only, As FNCCI election Outcome will direct us which Particular Banks will be Performer & which will be Laggards.

What We bought worth 5% each trading session were Non Life Insurance, Hotels, Hydro-Power, Manufacturing & Others.

We have 0 Exposure or Holdings in Life Insurance & Micro Finance as our Outlook in these 2 Sectors are Negative.

We are Bullish on Non Life Insurance Sector. As per the Latest Data Till the End of Kartik Month for the FY-2077-78 Non Life Insurance Companies have together Collected Premium of 9.88 Arab.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
@Dubosi7 It's Not about Risk but its all about Portfolio Churning.

FNCCI Election Outcome will guide us to Identify Potential Winners and Laggards of the Market.

We always wait for Clear Direction, In Past also we don't mind Buying Stocks at Higher Level when we get the Clear Direction.

Whenever we are Un-certain of the Direction We Prefer to sit on Cash.

Today also we Sold off 20% of our holdings and bought 5% in our Portfolio.

Net Net We sold off 55% of Our Portfolio and now Just hold just 45% Only.

55% in Cash & 45% in stocks.

After FNCCI Election Outcome Will Decide where to Deploy or Not to Deploy

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2282
So there is significant risk in current market level thats why people started to liquidate and SIT ON CASH waiting for SAFE LEVEL to enter again.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Today we sold another 20% of our Holdings and Bought 5%.

Yesterday we sold 30% and bought 5%only.

In 2 trading session we sold 50% and Bought 10%.

Net Net we sold off 40% of our Holding in 2 days.

Tomorrow will be the last day for us for our Portfolio Churning.

As we will Sit in 50-55% cash till FNCCI election outcome Comes.

After FNCCI electon only Deploy cash.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Yesterday Market Hit the Target of 1800+ though our Expectation was Before Tihar But anyways it was after Tihar.

Yesterday We Sold Off 30% of our Portfolio and Added 5% in Our Portfolio. NET NET We sold off 25% of our Portfolio.

Before FNCCI Election we will reduce our Portfolio Size by at least 50% to Max 56%.

We will Continue to Churn our Portfolio today and tomorrow also and will remain at least 50% in Cash.

After the FNCCI Election Outcome only will Deploy Cash again in the Market, Or if We get early Indication What kind of Outcome Likely to be and What Kind of Configuration it is Forming.

Some Stocks will Continue to Out-Perform even in this upcoming Volatility Session.

Finally AIL (AJOD Insurance) has beaten Down GIC in terms of Premium as expected & will Continue to Make GAP by at least 150 NPR to GIC.

Yesterday AIL (AJOD INSURANCE) has given the Strong Bullish Break out and thus Entering into an Un-charted Zone with Strong Volumes.

When a stock enters an Un-charted Zone then it is very difficult to Predict till Which Level it will go UP. Based on Multiple Past data and Parameter Suggest at-least 30% up-move generally it happens.

Based on that Assumption 756/- is the Minimum Target of AIL (Ajod Insurance)

Disclosure :- I Personally Own AIL in my Personal Portfolio in between 1500+ Kitta to upto 2000 Kitta.

As this stock is my Personal Portfolio, So there could be a Tendency of Biasness in my Comment.

So Kindly consult an adviser or Expert before making such decision.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
Thought of the Day

"Many Investor Sell Early when the Market is in Uptrend and Sell Late When Market is in Downtrend."

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
The Momentum in the Market continued before Tihar and after Tihar too.

BUT the Pace in the momentum was slower then we expected as we expected the Nepse to Hit 1800+ MARK before Tihar but has not yet hit till last Thursday but is very Close to its Striking range of 1800+.

As we are awaiting for FNCCI election outcome. After the Outcome of election only will built position in BFI (Banking and Financial Institution)

Currently we are Bullish in Non Life Insurance and Other Segment.

Netural on BFI and Hydropower and Negative on Life Insurance and Micro Finance.

Hotel Sector didn't show that bad result in their Quarterly report despite of Covid 19, has convinced us to Buy on this Sector where we like SHL the most and has further Upgraded its Short term Target to 265.

NRIC medium term Tgt of 1100/- is already achieved. NTC Short term Target of 965 is also achieved. CIT short term Tgt of 4300 is also achieved and has also achieved its speculative TGT of 5000.

NRIC Next target is Upgraded to 1465 and NTC upgraded @1100 and CIT No Target Upgradation in fact Target reduced to 2100 Cum Right adjusted Rate.

Trading Sector limited quantity of shares only listed thus no Target for these sectors either on Downside or Upside. It could be 10000 or could be 2000/-. Too. Its a Pure Traders demand and Supply Play only.

How Fast the Nepse achieves the Tgt of 1800+ and Volumes done during that phase based on that the Next Target of Nepse will be updated.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2282
Ramesh ji, you are right.
Sorry for the erroneous quote.
In balance sheet they have not mentioned quarter or annual. 5.3 is quarterly earning.
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 320
AIL ko Annulaized Eps Rs 21.2 ho.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2282
Ajod insurance :

Annulaized earning per share : Rs 5.3
PE ratio : 94.9


There are some other players in this sector floating there IPOs soon.
Buy or Sell, Decision is yours. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 90
AIL didn't publish promising report but hope fully all nonlife insurance will go up...
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2079
As said earlier On Sunday We will watch the Level of 1629 whether broken or not if Not by 12:30 PM then we will Inject Fresh Money in the Market.

From Sunday Second Half onwards after 12:30 PM we have started injecting Fresh Money in The Market and we are Continuously Buying since Sunday Second Half Onwards.

During the Course we have Reduced our Holding in Hydro Power from 11% to 10%.

In Non Life Insurance we have increased our Holdings from 4% to 4.7%.

In Hotel we have increased our holding from 0.2% to 0.25%

In Other we have increased our Holding from 0.5% to 0.75%

Micro Finance & Life Insurance we have 0.0% Holding Now as we feel these 2 Sector to Under Perform.

Today NEPSE Broke 1700 Mark and created a New 52 Week High With Strong Bullish Momentum.

TWO Sector which has given Bullish Break Out on Technical Charts are :-

1. Non Life Insurance Index 2. Other INDEX(NTC)

Today AIL (Ajod Insurance ) Surpassed 520/- Mark on Closing basis along with Increase in Volume has indicated that Accumulation Phase is Over in AIL and now it has geared up for a Fast Move, Apart from that the Non Life Insurance Index has given Strong Bullish Break Out.

To Summarize in coming days we can say that none of the Non Life Insurance companies will be trading Below 650/- mark.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:03 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2020
Posts: 29
AIL showing some surge and by the way in finance ICFC too starting momentum. I guess both of these scrips are to look out for in coming weeks.

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