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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
Market took the First Head out of Woods !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
The Corrective Mode in the Market Continues and that gave us a Good Buying Opportunity in the Market !!

We bought mainly into Life Insurance, Some Selective Banks, Finance & Micro Finance.

According to the Sources Margin Limit on Share Loan Likely to remain as it, No Changes on it which will give a Big Boost to the Market. The Loan amount for such Loan is likely to be reduced from 30% of the core Capital to 25% which won't impact much in the Market.

Corona Claim unlikely to Hit much to the Non-Life Insurance companies but as as the sentiment is negative on it so it was not in our todays Purchase List.

In Banking Sector 500 Basis Point Spread limit on Saving & FD Rates has made a bit cautious in banking Sector so we were doing very Selective Buying in Banking Sector. Especially those banks were in our Buy List whose Base rates are on the Lower side.

Among Life Insurance Sector We Like the most are GLICL (Gurans Life Insurance) & RLI (Reliance Life Insurance)

Among Finance we like the Most is UFL (United Finance Limited) but it trades in very thin Volume, not enough seller, As if somebody has already cornered the Stock.

Among Bank we Like ADBL the Most.

Overall we are Creating Stronger Bullish Bets on Life Insurance Sector !! And we were NET NET Buyer in the Market where we have increased our Equity Exposure from 5.5% to 20%. A Spike of 14.5% in a Single Day. Now sitting on 80% Cash at the Moment !!

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:20 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
Looking at the Pattern it shows many of the Traders are now Stuck in the 3 Musketeers Stock (Nric, Shivam and NTC) which also resulted in Slow down in Volumes. Very Soon It will be Upper, The fall in Upper will overall destroy the Bullish move of multiple Hydropower Companies.

Now Market will be dominated by Stock Specific action rather then Sector Specific.

For Next 2 Trading session the Investor should not take the Q for the Investment Decesion based on Nepse Movement. As the Index Movement of Nepse could be mis-leading.

As Luckley or Un-Luckely some Heavy Weight of Index has become high Beta and High Volatile Stocks, Infact Pure Casino Stocks.

One of the Media Reports says Corona Insurance claim has soared to 6.5 Billion mark. Wherever the data goes the Maximim liability on each Non-Life Insurance is 5 crores + 2.5 crores =7.5 crores.

RE-insurance company has a Liability of 1 Billion. The Whole 1 Billion Liability is of Nepal RE-insurance company or its a combination of Multiple RE-insurance company that is not Clear at the moment. As we don't know any Foreign RE-insurance underwrite such Corona Insurance.

Whatever the fact could be Technically Nepal RE-insurance could not sustain above 1650/- magic number has hinted for Sell Call for TGT of 1120/-

I feel Stock Wise correction is over except Index wise which is due, Due to heavy weight like Nric, NTC, Shivam, Upper, Schegen and Rasuwagadi.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Dec 09, 2020 8:28 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
As said Yesterday 3 Musketeers (NRIC, SHIVAM & NTC) has to Hit the Sell Call Target of 1120/-. Among the 3 NTC has hit the TGT of 1111, Where as SHIVAM has Hit 1134 a Level some what Close to 1120/-. But NRIC Price is still Due to Hit the Price TGT of 1120/-

Yesterday Bounce Back was just a mere Technical Bounce Back only for the 3 Musketeers as there was Technical Bounce Bank in the Market after a Sharp Fall which was imminent.

Now the Market is Likely to be in a range bound session with +VE Bias Until or Unless we don't break 2100 Level on NEPSE on Closing Basis.

Now Market is Likely to see a Stock Specific action rather a Sectorial Specific.

Yesterday We did Fresh Purchase in the Market mainly in Life Insurance & 2 Non-Life only followed by Micro Finance.

We are not Deploying any Money in Banking Sector & Development Banks Sectors due to Spread Cap of 500 Basis Point between Saving and FD Interest Rates. Apart from that also Awaiting for Q2 Results. The Impact of Corona in their Loan Portfolio thus followed 6 Months Honeymoon Period for Such Loans.

NRIC & UPPER should be avoided at the Current Price Level. Anytime it could a big wealth Destroyer and could be a big Nightmare's.

Note : 1650 is the Magic Number for NRIC, it need to Hold above that Level on Closing basis failure to hold above 1650/- will Trigger for 1120/- Level Only.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:39 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
Yesterday the Talk of the Town NRIC could not sustain above 1650/- thus triggered Bear Hammering on this Stock which also Triggered the Sharp Fall in NTC & Shivam too. Which resulted the 3 Musketeers to close at 10% Lower Circuit Level. What a Coincidence the 3 Musketeers are showing the same Sell Target Level of 1120/-

As the Market faced Physiological Resistance @ 2100 on Thursday has hinted for a strong Correction & Yesterday Massive Correction was seen which was further fueled by NRB Monetary Policy too.

Till now whatever correction which has happened just constitutes of Profit Booking session only it doesn't consist of Panic Selling at the Moment.

Till Friday we had 7% Equity shares exposure and 93% Cash but today its 5.5% equity shares & 94.5% Cash.

Yesterday we sold off in Life Insurance segment which were bought on Last week i.e. Sunday & Monday whose shares were already in our Demat A/c, As we anticipated a Strong Correction in NEPSE but will Buy Back again after Correction Phase is Over or it shows signs of Correction Phase Getting over.

Currently Our Portfolio Consists of Non-Life Insurance & Finance which are our Old Holdings only.

POST FNCCI Result Outcome we added Life Insurance stocks among which 2/3 is already Profit Booked remaining 1/3 under delivery Process but these 1/3 is in Marginal Loss to Break Even Point at the Moment.

Micro Finance whose Shree Ganesh we did last Tuesday and Bought on Wednesday is as it is in our Portfolio.

Today we might began Fresh Purchase in Life Insurance & Micro Finance Sector but Slow & Steady and Bargain buying only at the Moment.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:43 am. »
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 70
I don't think the correction will last for more than two days???
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
A Review on Upper Tamakoshi :-

Paid Up : 10 Arab.

Loan : 56 Arab (Approx)

Cost of Project : 60+ Arab (Approx)

Revenue Expected : 0000 till now if Batti balyo then max approx 56 Crore in the Current Fiscal Year.

Loss yet to to booked in Current Fiscal Year.

1. 5% Depreciation of Project Cost (60 Arab) which is around 3 Arab losses yet to be booked.

Additional : Interest Amount Payable on 56 Arab.

It's a Pure Khyas Putali stock.

Don't Buy at all if hold any should exit Immediately.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
The Monetory Policy is Published. The Central Bank has Capped the Spread Rate between Normal Saving and FD rates @ 500 basis Points.

Deposit at BFI stands at 4027 Arab due to Spread rate Cap the cost of Fund or laibilites towards Depositer is likely to Increase by 200 Basis Points which comes at around 80.54 Arab Anually for the Overall BFI Industry.

Deposit Rose by 4.9% Where as Loan Portfolio increased by 4% which is further going to Pinch their Margin.

Now the Question Comes as Some Banks has issued Debentures with Interest Coupan of 11% P. A. Like NIC Asia, Whether this will also be accounted as some kind of FD kinds of Products or Not ?? Which Monetory doesn't state Clearly. If Yes then Normal Saving Rate has to be 6% in the Case of NIC Asia.

I will avoid those Banks in fact all banks especially those which has offered higher Interest Rate Debentures and with Strong Liquidity as there Liabilities towards Depositer will be the Highest. Which will Definately hit Operating Margin, and its Profitability.

NEPSE technically has faced Physiological Resistance @ 2100 which will further trigger Profit Booking Session.

The Talk of town Stock NRIC need to Sustain above 1650 mark for the Next 2 Trading session. Failure to Sustain above 1650 mark will lead to Strong Bear Hammering in this Stock which will Drag it Down to 1120. And failure to sustain above 1100 will drag it down Further to 740 Level.

Life Insurance & Micro Finance to Outperform, Any Dip in its Price is a Pure Buying Oppurtinity.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 70
Afulai MNBBL ke hunchha bhanne chahiyeko thiyo, laun kohi expert hunuhuncha bhane....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
The Monetory Policy is Published. The Central Bank has Capped the Spread Rate between Normal Saving and FD rates @ 500 basis Points.

Deposit at BFI stands at 4027 Arab due to Spread rate Cap the cost of Fund or laibilites towards Depositer is likely to Increase by 200 Basis Points which comes at around 80.54 Arab Anually for the Overall BFI Industry.

Deposit Rose by 4.9% Where as Loan Portfolio increased by 4% which is further going to Pinch their Margin.

Now the Question Comes as Some Banks has issued Debentures with Interest Coupan of 11% P. A. Like NIC Asia, Whether this will also be accounted as some kind of FD kinds of Products or Not ?? Which Monetory doesn't state Clearly. If Yes then Normal Saving Rate has to be 6% in the Case of NIC Asia.

I will avoid those Banks which has offered higher Interest Rate Debentures and with Strong Liquidity as there Liabilities towards Depositer will be the Highest. Which will Definately hit Operating Margin, and its Profitability.

NEPSE technically has faced Physiological Resistance @ 2100 which will further trigger Profit Booking Session.

The Talk of town Stock NRIC need to Sustain above 1650 mark for the Next 2 Trading session. Failure to Sustain above 1650 mark will lead to Strong Bear Hammering in this Stock which will Drag it Down to 1120. And failure to sustain above 1100 will drag it down Further to 740 Level.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1272
BULL मा फाली फाप त ब्रोकर कम्पनी लाई पनि भए छ त l
गत आर्थिक वर्षको पहिलो चार महिनामा ब्रोकर कम्पनीहरूले २१ करोड ५८ लाख रुपैयाँ खुद कमिसनवापत आम्दानी गरेकामा यस वर्षको सोही अवधिमा ब्रोकर कम्पनीहरूले १ अर्ब ४५ करोड रुपैयाँ कमाए का छन् l
https://www.setopati.com/kinmel/banking/222858

Lets hope Santosh Mainali ji and Tanka ji work together to bulit a magnificient trading platform which meets the international mark and in coming days trasaction volume quadruples due to easiness of transaction.
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:25 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
Lots of Questions tossing among the Investor !!

Monetary Policy & Its Impact ??

NRIC 1 Billion Turnover in a single Day, Whether it's a SCAM or an Actual Demand ??

Will Bank Rally now or will Fall Further ??

NEPSE unable to Surpass Physiological Resistance of 2100 what NEXT ??

If The Correction Continue till what Level it will Go ??

Which will be upcoming Winner Stock in the Market ??

Whether to Buy or Hold or Sell ??

We are still Analyzing on it !!

:lol: :lol:
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 70
Every bull blue chips keep changing, yespali ko blue chip kun hola Deepak_mm sir????Any guess, ab banking kahile bat badhla???
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 70
I have gone for SBL today hoping banking will go high again.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 790
so that basically means you are buying same shares that you sold last week...

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
On Monday after the Confirmation of Bullish Break Out We enter the Market and We bought only into Life Insurance Sector.

Yesterday Also We bought mainly into Life Insurance Sector as we Feel Life Insurance will take the Next Lead of the Nepse Bull Movement.

As we were reviewing Multiple Micro Finance Companies and Yesterday We did Shree Ganesh (Tuesday) with one of the Micro Finance Company SNLB (Sarthi Nepal Sanstha Limited) by Picking up few kitta below 100.

From Today we started Buying in Micro Finance and apart from that we are Net Buyer in Life Insurance Sector for third Consecutive Trading Sessions.

Tomorrow it will be an interesting day for the NEPSE to be watched as 2100 is Likely to Act as a Crucial First Resistance Level of the Market.

Though 2100 is a Physiological Resistance Level.

Technically NRIC after a Bullish Break Out and thus entering an Uncharted Territory has indicated a Minimum Target of NRIC @ 1465/- which is it has already Surpassed and Technically it also indicates that a Level near 1765/- is the Price Maturation Level for the NRIC. Break Out Rally Likely to Pause Here.

Similar Way NTC Price Maturation Level is Pegged to Level Near 1408 and in the similar Way the Price Maturation Level for Shivam is Pegged at Level Near 1472.

A Pause in Rally in NRIC might trigger a Early Pause in rally of NTC & Shivam before Price Maturation also.

Wherever the NEPSE Goes there will be Strong Rally in Micro Finance.

It could repeat the Scenario in the Past Like NEPSE INDEX is Down But Micro Finance is Flying High.

Happy Investment !!

Note : The Above statement is for Study Purpose Only. Kindly Consult and Expert before Making any Investment Decision.
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:02 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2020
Posts: 27
Life insurance as Deepak ji mentioned looked promising today.
RLI showed good volume today and so did others but I guess this particular stock has crossed its consolidation phase and moving towards upward outperforming others of its sector.. Target short term remains 730+...
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
NEPSE Above 2000 Mark.

But Bank Khyas Putali !!

Banking INDEX Down 2.69%

Development Bank Index Down 2.33%.

This shows Investor are Preferring Ghaderi Instead of Khet !!

:D :D
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1272
Market may hit LOWER CIRCUIT due to the panic caused by this VIGYAPTI. Deppak ji and GANG are already in 10 % profit if they buy today afternoon, isnt it ?
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 70
Hope the history will repeat today as we are offloading some banking scripts.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
Past History shows when SEBON released such Vigyapti on Precaution Alert. The Market outperformed by 70% after the Release of Such Documents.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
@ Dubosi7 It's just Mere Coincidence Only !!

As NEPSE Managed to sustain above 1881 till Today Now has confirmed the Break Out.

Though Break Out did happened Last Week but we waited for the Confirmation of the Breakout and Now Market Confirmed the Break Out.

As we had emptied 95% of Our Portfolio till Yesterday and Now again we started Building up a New Portfolio.

After 12:00 Noon We did Shree Ganesh in Our Portfolio and Started Building Bullish Bets in Life Insurance Sector as these were not the part of our Portfolio since Last Many Months. As we feel NEPSE INDEX will Now be Lead by Life Insurance Sector rather then Banking Sector.

We are also reviewing some Micro Finance Companies where we can Build UP Long Position.

As NEPSE has managed to sustain above 1881 Mark Now We have Revised our Short Term Target for NEPSE @ 2465/-

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1272
Deepak ji & Group emptied there PANDORAs box and very next day we got to hear from SEBON
बढ्दो बजारमा सजगतापूर्वक लगानी गर्न धितोपत्र बोर्डको आह्वान
Is this a mere coincidence or any other connection ?

I am sure from tomorrow onward market will follow ........ course. :roll: :roll: :roll:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1782
Till Last Week We had Sold off 83% our Portfolio. Yesterday we sold Off another 12% Our Portfolio Now Left with Just 5% Holding only.

Last week itself We have 0000% Holdings in Banks & Development Banks.

0000% Holdings in Life Insurance & Micro Finance since last many months.

Now Yesterday onwards we have 00000% Holding in Hydropower too.

Yesterday we reduced whatever residual holding we had, Now our holding fully 0000% in Hydropower.

Apart from that we also reduced our Holdings Yesterday in NTC, NRIC and Shivam too any by today & tomorrow Our Holding in these 3 Counter will be reduced to 00% i Guess so.

We also reduced our Holdings in Non Life Insurance and now more Reduction in Non Life Insurance Sector as we already cherry Picked 5 Non Life Insurance Companies in our Portfolio and remaining other we already Sold Off.

No Change in holding in Finance Sector.

Today NEPSE need to sustain above 1881 for Clear Confirmation. If it sustains then NEPSE Next Target 2465/- Else Correction towards 1665/-.

Finger Crossed !!

Thank You Bulls for Giving Us a good Return in 11 Months Tenure i.e 31 DEC 2019 Onwards. Now Most Likely we will be going for 6-9 Month Hibernation from NEPSE.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:38 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2020
Posts: 27
MArket sentiment is overall positive. Seems like its going to drive furthur towards 2000 plus level for today. Especially BFIs haru ma ago lagi sakyo, khojera navettine type nahola ki...

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