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2020 Bull started from 31.12.2019 !!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5485
Narcissist are those who think world revolves around them.



Just cause they sold their shares, and they are not buying, share market should decrease.


If you go to broker office, ever day, dozen of staffs at broker office are processing 100s of form of new Investors every day. If one Lakh enter into the market every month with average of just one lakh, it would be 10 arab. And there are many Nepalese who leaving for foreign job- open dmat account, take tms and leave. If all of them invest few lakhs in average per year, it would be 100 billion every year.




When some players were selling shares, they are the ones who could be absorbing the shares.





And there are players, big gangs who have found out some players- who could potentially crash the party have already sold their shares- then enters the market and start another segment of bull.


What if this is the real Conspiracy theory going on.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Today I am throwing some light on one of the Conspiracy Theory Which is in my Mind, I might be 100% Wrong too.

Harshad Mehta Scam which was discovered in Year 1992, in India, Where the Major Funder of the Big Bull Mehta was SBI Bank, Where the fund were used by Mr. Mehta using the Loop Holes in the System.

So based on 1992 Scam i am trying to Co-relate similar kind of Theory which is Just a Conspiracy Theory Only, which has somewhat similar pattern like SCAM 1992.

1. EPF & CIT every months collects amount worth Billions towards Employees Retirement Funds :-

2. CIT has not updated the Retirement Funds Statements since Last 6 Months to all the Depositors of the Employees Retirement Funds.

3. Reason Technology Up-gradation, None of the Technology Upgradation takes 6 months.

4. Six Months is a big time to create a Multiple Books of Loan A/c and closing the Multiple Books of Loan A/c.

5. Whether the amount worth Billions Collected by CIT are channelized to NEPSE via Jr. Nepali Mehata to create big Bull Bubble ??

6. The Old Big Bulls of Nepse also don't have such huge money to-gather also to support such kind of Turnover.

7. From Where this Big Money is coming ??

The Above statement is just a Conspiracy Theory Only. If someone want to a Make a Nepali Movie on Stock Market Scam in Nepali Context can use that :-

Happy Investment !! :mrgreen:
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:09 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 787
deepak_mm le train miss garekai ho ta ...

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5485
It is turning out, those 4 head of a cobra is actually a body of a brontosaurus. :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
The Market has formed Quadra Top (Chauka Top) Pattern on the Daily Chart , which has indicated that the Market has got the Bear Hug for the Short term.

It's not the time to inject Fresh Money in the Market in-fact it's the time to take the Cash Out Of table.

The Current Risk Reward Ratios are not at all favorable. There is room for limited Reward only but Room for Unlimited Risk.

Most of the Aggressive Banks are already deployed major Portion of their Cash already into the Equites Market and there is lesser room for Further Deployment of Cash by them.

The Current Interest Rates need to Fall further in Order provide Support to the Market at the Moment.

We are Currently sitting on 95% Cash, and the Current Price Valuation is not justifying us at all to Deploy further cash in the Market. All TA Analysis who are Predicting 2500 Soon is just like a Bull Shit at the Moment.

The Summary is that "Market has formed Short term Bubble and is ready to Burst at any Point of Time."

Investor are advised not to take Leverage Positions on Stocks, should De-leverage their Position as much as Possible.

Investor Should and Must Follow Financial Discipline at the Moment, Should and Must Stay away from "Kheladi Lago Stock" the general terminology used by Major Retail Investors.

I Foresee NEPSE Breaking 1881 Level soon followed by some Hydros going back to Prices below IPO Price (100 Mark)

The Summary of the Story is the Market has got the Bear Hug.

Happy Investment !! "Precaution is better then Cure"
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
The Market Continue to remain in sideways Direction with +VE Bias.

The trader activity has reduced in the market due to Book Close and Record Date of Multiple Shares listed in NEPSE.

Shares bought during the Book Close date, the delivery of those shares are likely to be after Book Close date only, mostly are after Poush 29 only, The Big time Gap between Purchase date and Delivery of shares are keeping Traders away from stocks which are under Book Close.

At the Current Juncture Micro Finance Sector looks more Promising then all other sectors Followed by Finance Sector.

Among the Micro Finance SNLB (Sarathi Laghubittya) is in our Buying Radar, As we like its multiple story such as Accumulated Reserve & Surplus, Higher NPA Provisioning due to Merger, Followed by Public Holding below 30% Mark which makes it an ideal FPO Candidates in coming days.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Nov 2020
Posts: 69
Possibly from tomorrow the market starts going up...
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 122
One can call it a triple top, some other can call it a developing triangle.

There is a dictum in technical analysis, "Never label a correction prematurely or you will be wrong nine times out of ten."

If triangle formation completes, then by its rule, another big rally is yet to be seen.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
The Triple Top Pattern continues to favor Bears and the Market even Broke 2000 Physiological Support level by minor Points which was due to Traders Exiting the Long Position is Multiple Stocks before Book Close, as they are not interested to Lock their Capital in the Name of Bonus Shares.

The Triple top Pattern has already hinted in advance that Large Caps stocks are not in a hurry to Move up.

One must avoid Stocks like NRIC, UPPER, Sanchgen Hydro, Rasuwagadi Hydro, Mountain & Liberty Energy even in these falls in their Prices.

Though Non-Life Insurance i like but should be avoided as Sentiment is Negative in these stocks due to Corona Claims figures and the Claim Process Settlement.

Yesterday some of the traders were seen starting up to build up Long Position in Micro Finance, Finance & some Hydro Power Stocks.

In-fact we also started building up Long Positions in Micro Finance, Finance & Some Hydro Powers.

After sitting on 95% on Cash we deployed another 1% of our Cash in above Sector and currently Sitting on 94% Cash at the Moment.

Today additional 2% Cash Deployment will be there by us in the above 3 Sectors.

If Market Manages to move above 2000 Mark and continue to hold then we will Deploy another 5-8% Cash in A Class Commercial Bank & Life Insurance Sectors.

The Current Bottom of the Market is Pegged near @ 1956, If Market comes near that level then there will another 20-25% Deployment of Cash by us in the Market.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:12 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
NEPSE has formed Triple Top Patten followed by Double Bottom Pattern which has hinted that Market is not in a Hurry for a Strong Run up. Now the Market will be in Range Bound session between 1956-2092 Level.

Ahead of the Book Close many of the traders were seen Closing their Long Position as they don't want to Lock their Capital after the Book Close.

As the NEPSE will be under Consolidation so there will be Limited rooms for Large Cap Stocks to move up Sharply, which will demotivate traders to flock to Large Cap Stocks.

Now for the Coming week the Traders Delight will be Small Cap companies where they are likely to see strong up moves.

Looking at the Flavor of the week i will be building up Long Positions in Mainly Finance, Micro-Finance & Hydro Power Sectors.

Commission Slab reduction will further boost the Sentiments of the Traders, which could in turn will create many Part time Stocks Traders into the Full Time Stock Traders. Thus creating In-direct Job Creations for many People.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:59 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
The Market Yesterday Once again Shy away to Close above 2100 mark Yesterday But closed with the +VE Bias.

Yesterday We were just the Spectator in the Market and were watching the Bulls & Bears Match with Lots of interruption in the Match. The Match Referee was going for Frequent Khaja Break which resulted the match to get interrupted frequently & the match ended without the Conclusion. The Bulls were doing major Attacks near the Goal Post but could not Score. The Match is Re-scheduled for Today.

Today is a DAY whether NEPSE will form Triple Top Pattern or will Make a strong Break-Out. Let's see whether there will be a Natural Game Today or there will be a Match Fixing.

29 Poush i.e JANUARY 13 2021, (1 MONTH 1 DAY AHEAD OF VALENTINE DAY FEB 14).

Some of the Singles who want to Mingle are sitting for the Board Meeting in Search of their Valentine. The List include:-

1. Nabil Bank (Merger & Acquisition)
2. Global IME Bank (Merger & Acquisition)
3. Mega Bank (Merger & Acquisition)
4. United Finance (Amendments in AOA & MOA)


Let's see who becomes whose Valentine ???

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:41 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Before a Strong fall on Sunday we were sitting 95% on cash.

On Monday we awaited for Nepse to remain above 1905 Level till 12:00 Noon.

After Early Break down even though Breaking 1881 Level on intraday basis before 12 Noon but manged to remain above 1905 after 11:30 has tempted us to Buy Agressive in the market.

BUT we Bought only in BFI Sector only which includes Micro Finance, Finance, Devlopement Banks but major bet were on A Class Commercial Banks only.

Yesterday we added BFI again followed by 2 Life Insurance Company only.

We avoided Non Life Insurance, Hydropower, and all others sectors and will continue to avoid in near term also.

After 2 days of Shopping on Monday and Tuesday, Today we will remain on side line by just being the Spectator only. Today will be watching the BULLS and Bears Match only.

After Seeing the Today's match will make a Conclusion whether to form the Alliance with BULLS or with the Bears.

As Delivery of Shares Purchased on Monday and Tuesday are yet to come in our Demat A/c.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:34 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Today No Technical Nor Market Update, Just One Case Studies :-

1. City Express Finance whose Net-worth was Negative, Got Merged with Nepal Investment Bank with SWAP ratio of 100:30 , For each 100 Shares of City Express Finance an Investor got 30 shares of NIBL.

2. Hathway Finance which was also in Deep Trouble got Merged with Global IME Bank with the SWAP ratio of 100:42, For Each 100 Shares of of Hathway Finance an Investor got 42 Shares of GBIME.

3. Muthoot Finance Limited an Indian Multi Billion $$ Company Picked up 20.78% Stake in United Finance Limited Promoter Shares @ 190 NPR for each Shares when the Market was in Bear Phase. In Bear Market the Promoter share was @ 190 Per shares then what could the Potential Price of United Finance (UFL) Ordinary shares ??

4. UFL (United Finance) Merger related Market Gossips and Talk with NABIL Bank in the Market, UFL whose Net-worth is Strong followed by Strong Reserve, Where Billionaire Chaudhry (in $$ term) holds 5.46% Stake followed Chairman Chaudhry who holds 7.94% Stake in Company.

5. The Shares Cross Holding Pattern Could either Lead it to Get Merged with Nabil Bank or Chaudhry Family Selling their shares to others or India's Muthoot Finance, Which ever Direction it goes it's a Pure Win Win for General Public Shares Holders.

Disclosure :- The Above Case Study is for Study Purpose only, one should consult their Advisor & An Expert before making such Investment Decision.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:38 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
After Forming Double Top we were aware that Market will show Deeper Correction, We made a wise Decision by Exiting all our Life Insurance Portfolio after seeing retracement from 2100 Level, where we made Good Profit but were Stuck in RLI & GLICL and were aware that we are likely to make Loss in these two 2 stocks as the Delivery was due. Today we Sold off these 2 also in Marginal Losses as soon as we got the Delivery of these stocks in our De'mat Account.

2011 Support Level & 2000 Physiological Support Level is already Broken which has given an advantage to the Bears.

But Bulls has one advantage despite such Negative News Flow, the Market didn't hit the 6% Lower Circuit Level which is a Strong sign of Relief for the Bulls.

Currently we are Sitting on 95% Cash at the moment and has 5% equity Exposure only. Till Last Thursday we had 3% Exposure in Finance & Micro Finance Sector where we added additional 2% in todays trading session Net Net we have 5% Exposure in Equities which is Finance & Micro Finance To-gather.

Technically the Immediate Support Level for the Market in Pegged @ 1905, If Tomorrow NEPSE don't break 1905 Level till 12:00 Noon then we will initiate Fresh Long Position in the Market.

Our Major Picks are likely be likely to be BFI Sector which includes certain Selective Commercial Banks, Development Banks, Finance Companies & Micro Finance.

If NEPSE breaks 1905 then will be Buying only in Finance & Micro Finance only :mrgreen:

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:41 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
After Forming Double Top Pattern on Nepse the Deep Correction Phase was imminent, And Nepse has started the Journey of Correction. One thing is to be watched is Whether the Correction Phase will get over Near 2011 Level or Not ??

Whether Nepse Breaks 2011 Support Level followed by 2000 Physiological Support Level or not is a BIG Question mark till Sunday followed by Monday when the Market Opens.

Till the Direction is not Clear an Investor and Trader should should follow the Wait N Watch Policy on Sunday followed by Monday.

BUT Any Body still willing to Buy in this Phase should stick to Defensive Stocks and Low Volatile Stocks.

It's time to RE-look more into Fundamentals rather then Technicals Aspects. As Technical Aspects could be Mis-leading at the upcoming Trading Session.

The Stock Selection list should be those Companies which are in A Category List of Share Loan offered by the Multiple Banks.

B Category Stock list should also be ignored at the moment.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:32 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Today was Second Consecutive Profit Booking Session by us in the Life Insurance Sector, We sold off 100% in SLICL,NLICL,PLICL & NLIC.

We Sold off 50% in LICN & ALICL and will sell the remaining in the Next Trading Session.

But we are Stucked in GLICL & RLI, As some DELEVIRIES are Yet to come for Purchases done till Tuesday. It's look like instead of Profit Booking in these 2 Stocks, We will End up Booking Loss as the News are not favorable for the Market.

We Sold off 47% in Micro Finance Sector too and would settle Left out in the Next Trading Session.

Technically NEPSE after forming Double Top Pattern has hinted for a Correction which could be Deeper in Nature.

Since Yesterday we are not Buying Anything in the Market, We are Selling only, Holding those stocks only where we are unable to get a potential bidder with good Volume demands.

Let's see How Market react to the Central Bank Circular on Share Loan !!

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
As Soon as the Market Hit the 2100 Physiological Resistance Level the Profit Booking Session Started in NEPSE.

Last Week & Previous to that we had bought mainly into Life Insurance, Yesterday we did Partial Profit Booking Session after the strong run up in 4 Companies which were SLICL, NLICL,PLICL & NLIC.

But we added more of GLICL & RLI in Life Insurance Sector.

We have certain Aggressive Buy Calls :-

1. RLI (Reliance Life Insurance) We have a Buy Call on RLI for short term Target of 938/-

2. UFL (United Finance) We have a Buy Call on UFL for short term Target of 456/-

Disclosure :- The Above statement is only for Study Purposes, One should consult an expert or an advisor before making such Investment Decision.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Jan 2020
Posts: 44
Namaste Sir
Why UFL?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Text Message to Check Whether it's working or Not !!!!!!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Finally the most of the Weaker Hands are already out the market either via Stop-loss Sell or via Forced Sell.

Now the Correction Phase in the Market is over and Now the Market is Out of woods and is well poised to Head towards North.

The Next UP-move will be lead by Life Insurance Sector followed by Heavy Weights like NTC.

NRIC, UPPER, Schengen & Rasuwagadi Hydropower are likely to Limit the Gains in the NEPSE.

Sectors to Outperform in the coming Weeks are Life Insurance, Finance, Micro Finance & Hotels.

Stocks to be watched in the Coming weeks are :-

1. RLI (Reliance Life Insurance)
2. GLICL (Grunas Life Insurance)
3. UFL (United Finance)
4. NTC (Nepal Doorsanchar Co.)
5. NLIC (Nepal Life Insurance )

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Market took the First Head out of Woods !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
The Corrective Mode in the Market Continues and that gave us a Good Buying Opportunity in the Market !!

We bought mainly into Life Insurance, Some Selective Banks, Finance & Micro Finance.

According to the Sources Margin Limit on Share Loan Likely to remain as it, No Changes on it which will give a Big Boost to the Market. The Loan amount for such Loan is likely to be reduced from 30% of the core Capital to 25% which won't impact much in the Market.

Corona Claim unlikely to Hit much to the Non-Life Insurance companies but as as the sentiment is negative on it so it was not in our todays Purchase List.

In Banking Sector 500 Basis Point Spread limit on Saving & FD Rates has made a bit cautious in banking Sector so we were doing very Selective Buying in Banking Sector. Especially those banks were in our Buy List whose Base rates are on the Lower side.

Among Life Insurance Sector We Like the most are GLICL (Gurans Life Insurance) & RLI (Reliance Life Insurance)

Among Finance we like the Most is UFL (United Finance Limited) but it trades in very thin Volume, not enough seller, As if somebody has already cornered the Stock.

Among Bank we Like ADBL the Most.

Overall we are Creating Stronger Bullish Bets on Life Insurance Sector !! And we were NET NET Buyer in the Market where we have increased our Equity Exposure from 5.5% to 20%. A Spike of 14.5% in a Single Day. Now sitting on 80% Cash at the Moment !!

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:20 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Looking at the Pattern it shows many of the Traders are now Stuck in the 3 Musketeers Stock (Nric, Shivam and NTC) which also resulted in Slow down in Volumes. Very Soon It will be Upper, The fall in Upper will overall destroy the Bullish move of multiple Hydropower Companies.

Now Market will be dominated by Stock Specific action rather then Sector Specific.

For Next 2 Trading session the Investor should not take the Q for the Investment Decesion based on Nepse Movement. As the Index Movement of Nepse could be mis-leading.

As Luckley or Un-Luckely some Heavy Weight of Index has become high Beta and High Volatile Stocks, Infact Pure Casino Stocks.

One of the Media Reports says Corona Insurance claim has soared to 6.5 Billion mark. Wherever the data goes the Maximim liability on each Non-Life Insurance is 5 crores + 2.5 crores =7.5 crores.

RE-insurance company has a Liability of 1 Billion. The Whole 1 Billion Liability is of Nepal RE-insurance company or its a combination of Multiple RE-insurance company that is not Clear at the moment. As we don't know any Foreign RE-insurance underwrite such Corona Insurance.

Whatever the fact could be Technically Nepal RE-insurance could not sustain above 1650/- magic number has hinted for Sell Call for TGT of 1120/-

I feel Stock Wise correction is over except Index wise which is due, Due to heavy weight like Nric, NTC, Shivam, Upper, Schegen and Rasuwagadi.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Wed Dec 09, 2020 8:28 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
As said Yesterday 3 Musketeers (NRIC, SHIVAM & NTC) has to Hit the Sell Call Target of 1120/-. Among the 3 NTC has hit the TGT of 1111, Where as SHIVAM has Hit 1134 a Level some what Close to 1120/-. But NRIC Price is still Due to Hit the Price TGT of 1120/-

Yesterday Bounce Back was just a mere Technical Bounce Back only for the 3 Musketeers as there was Technical Bounce Bank in the Market after a Sharp Fall which was imminent.

Now the Market is Likely to be in a range bound session with +VE Bias Until or Unless we don't break 2100 Level on NEPSE on Closing Basis.

Now Market is Likely to see a Stock Specific action rather a Sectorial Specific.

Yesterday We did Fresh Purchase in the Market mainly in Life Insurance & 2 Non-Life only followed by Micro Finance.

We are not Deploying any Money in Banking Sector & Development Banks Sectors due to Spread Cap of 500 Basis Point between Saving and FD Interest Rates. Apart from that also Awaiting for Q2 Results. The Impact of Corona in their Loan Portfolio thus followed 6 Months Honeymoon Period for Such Loans.

NRIC & UPPER should be avoided at the Current Price Level. Anytime it could a big wealth Destroyer and could be a big Nightmare's.

Note : 1650 is the Magic Number for NRIC, it need to Hold above that Level on Closing basis failure to hold above 1650/- will Trigger for 1120/- Level Only.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:39 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1778
Yesterday the Talk of the Town NRIC could not sustain above 1650/- thus triggered Bear Hammering on this Stock which also Triggered the Sharp Fall in NTC & Shivam too. Which resulted the 3 Musketeers to close at 10% Lower Circuit Level. What a Coincidence the 3 Musketeers are showing the same Sell Target Level of 1120/-

As the Market faced Physiological Resistance @ 2100 on Thursday has hinted for a strong Correction & Yesterday Massive Correction was seen which was further fueled by NRB Monetary Policy too.

Till now whatever correction which has happened just constitutes of Profit Booking session only it doesn't consist of Panic Selling at the Moment.

Till Friday we had 7% Equity shares exposure and 93% Cash but today its 5.5% equity shares & 94.5% Cash.

Yesterday we sold off in Life Insurance segment which were bought on Last week i.e. Sunday & Monday whose shares were already in our Demat A/c, As we anticipated a Strong Correction in NEPSE but will Buy Back again after Correction Phase is Over or it shows signs of Correction Phase Getting over.

Currently Our Portfolio Consists of Non-Life Insurance & Finance which are our Old Holdings only.

POST FNCCI Result Outcome we added Life Insurance stocks among which 2/3 is already Profit Booked remaining 1/3 under delivery Process but these 1/3 is in Marginal Loss to Break Even Point at the Moment.

Micro Finance whose Shree Ganesh we did last Tuesday and Bought on Wednesday is as it is in our Portfolio.

Today we might began Fresh Purchase in Life Insurance & Micro Finance Sector but Slow & Steady and Bargain buying only at the Moment.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:43 am. »

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