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- Year 2020 - Way Ahead - Predictions, Analysis

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Member
Registered: Jan 2020
Posts: 11
Dear Pujibhairab Sir
Sir is there still opportunity if we buy gblbs and fmdbl at the current market price.
Regards
Share03
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 52
Beyond eps pe..their are other parameters too...
low paid up,
capital adequacy ratio,
new micro,
promoters/BOD/CEO point of view,
growth pattern specially PEG ratio,
company's business mission are the major price driving forces.. Copy Paste from Facebook.

[b]Sabsl,Gilb are my favorite...

there is no price high....
there is no pe high.....

there is vast difference between growing and grown up company....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
Undoubtedly Micros Are Risky
Those With P/E Ratios above 20-25 (low risk), 25-30 (average risk), 30-35 (high risk)

Low Priced MFI with P/E Ratio upto 25-30 (average risk) can be considered for trading

STILL GBLBS
STILL EYE ARE ON GBLBS
AS its LOW PRICED
AS its P/E is below 25-30 range....
And very very soon something of strong positive sentiments in this scrip might emerge
As there is enough space for good things to roll in it

Current volumes says the same

...ELSE TIME WILL TELL...WE ONLY HAVE TO SIT BACK AND WATCH.....lTime will make a comment and time will judge the posts and predictions......None humans can......Time is a great judge......Baki ishwor ko leela...
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 76
MICROS ARE MORE CHUTIYA THAN MYSELF IN THE ABSENCE OF GOVERNING BODY. FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS AND THOSE WHO CAN'T UPDATE THEMSELVES WITH DAY TO DAY NEWS, I SUGGEST BANKS RATHER THAN RISKY MICROFINANCES.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
Like Said in February 07, 2020
...Again we are left with micros and these to surge....And market kinda suggested the same during current surge....Same trend will continue for some span of time... Micros are vibrant shares for some good amount of time....Among them the Undervalued ones are the great stocks....Other sectors cannot have the same charm as micros for some good amount of time...


....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
moneycontrolJee

1. GBLBS & SHPC always have been the good stocks
2. Always wrote on it
3. GBLBS is still a genuine buy and it should surge, AS ENTIRE MFI INDUSTRY is bullish
4. As for SHPC, big players, included reputed stock investing groups, are stuck in the price range of 400-500 with bulk shares and full effort is there to recover the money
5. As for SHPC, have been a good shareholder since beginning
6. However for still more few years until it pays all of its loan doesnt quite seems it would witness a sustainable surge
7. Also it have enormous supply, However if trading opportunities comes, its only a short term

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 44
la ta sathiharu yeti vaye pugena aba SHPC RS. 300 pugne re watch the video on link below on 24 minutes on wards. 40% plus return re ahileko price (rs. 214) calculate garda! paisa chhapine vayo ki kya ho GBLBS ra SHPC ma. still believing on these stocks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhhjW6azRtU
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
1. Insurances will witness more IPO's, more competition, less growth (as loans dries the non-life insurance also dries), under average balancesheets, all insurances are now SELL

2. Hrdros have negative sentiments, high corruptions, low EPS, construction obstruction due to chinese contractors owing to chinese epidemics

3. Banks are the best but wont witness major surge as demand for loan will dry
a- As hotel sector will perform below average if corona situation continues, and no loans to hotels
b- Construction sector will also perform below average as hydros become sluggish and no loans to hydros
c- Normal Business loans are saturated
d - Steels & Cements will remain stable in loan demand and no additional wants
e- Banks profits to remain stable, significant growths is not possible
f- Huge Supply

4. We are again left with micros
a - Significant Growths
b - Low Supply
c- Great EPS
d- Heavy space for price surges
e- Need for Paid Up Increments

...Banks are best but Because of surrounding circumstances MFI will again come to heights......However going for MFI whose P/E is more than 25 to 30 IS NOT GOOD....MFI whose PE ratio is less than 30 is good enough.....And low priced MFI are good rather than high priced as price surge comes fast in low priced MFI....

....KALIKA MFI P/E 50 is can bring death in prices.....GBLBS P/E Ratio is around 22 and is still good enough....MFI with P/E less than 30 is good and less than 25 is very good....

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:43 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 585
Insurance will hit by CORONA and Banks by LALITA
HYDRO is already in MARIANA.

JAY HOS SABAIKO !!!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4782
May hit Balance sheet for 6 month or a year of those banks but I am sure, those borrowers have huge property, a lot of black money and that loan they must have invested somewhere so BFIs can easily recover their lending.



This is why I have been saying, BFIs current income is too low to handle such future unseen risk- which could harm economic system of Nepal and stock market. can you imagine, what happens when income is halved, look at NIB. But our khate in media and social media who live on dalili bone think banks are making too much profit. Who should they listen to- me or jealous prostit...
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 106
Dear Pujibhairav jee and forum members,

This Lalita Niwas case has come up to the surface and has suddenly created unforeseen fear among general investors. Is this a true fear to be feared or just an overhyped situation?
Are commercial bank's days over? One after another new issues emerge.
Does the same apply to development banks?

What actions should general investors (commercial banks and development banks holders) do to handle this situation? or let it settle on its own?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
@SIMRIKJee
1. i know about those incentives
2. is shareholder since the beginning of the company inception
3. the thing is public sentiments isnt good on hydros
4. because the industry people became very corrupt

@GBLBS
1. Like forecasted the EPS is in between 21 to 26, the EPS came out to be 22.78
2. All parameters have significantly improved except Employee Expenditures
3. Need to work on Employee Areas
4. Core Income, Credit to Deposit, Reserves, Deposits all have improved
5. Like said all parameters are good than mero micro
6. Price of the share is the thing the market will decide,
7. Forecasts approved by time

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 108
I got to read an article where it says SHPC had signed a contract with the government that would provide the company an incentive of 50 lakhs per Megawatt of installed capacity. This was in the time when Nepal had severe shortage in power. SHPC fulfilled its end of the deal, but bidut pradhikaran has yet to pay the incentive it promised. If SHPC were to receive the incentive, it would be a positive 10 corore plus to its cash flow.
Puji jee, do you know anything about this?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
@moneycontrol
SHPC may witness a reasonable surge only, significant surge is not possible
&
GBLBS is yet to be seen and may rise again as it seems still undervalued if it publishes good results than its PEERS like MERO MICRO
As its PE Ratio will be low if it increases its EPS compared to what is there in first quarter (Rs 12)
And Also public confidence and bullishness is there in MFI
Current PE in MFI Industry is on an average 30

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:54 am. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 44
@पूजीभैरव ji, thank you for building our confidence over GBLBS and now believing over SHPC too as per your advocacy since long time which are bagging day by day.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
PERHAPS
Investors Need Capital Gains, SO MFI BECAME FIRST CHOICE And AS
1. MFI have good corporate governance as it is directly supervised by NRB
2. MFI have low supply
3. MFI are publishing good profits

So
1. MAJORITY MFI Prices have adopted the trend of P/E 25 TO 30

And
1. Waiting for results of national level MFI especially GBLBS
2. And want to see how much its price can surge as it will publish good results than Mero Micro

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:56 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 585
प्रफिट बुकको हतारोले नेप्सेमा गिरावट, बैंक छाडेर बिमा र माइक्रोफाइनान्स उठाउँदै लगानीकर्ता
Decision of general investor seems SUCIDAL.
THOUGHTS TO PONDER : Nepal is situated between two hugely populated countries CHINA and INDIA. CORONA is spreading at rapid rate in china. If similar thing happen in INDIA , NEPAL being small country and sandwiched between the two, we ve to bear huge loss of asset as well as life. So which sector will cover this loss - DEFINITELY INSURANCE. Then why people VEERED off from there investment objective.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 237
धन्यवाद पूजीभैरवजी,

धन्यवाद Trader's words जी,

खाशमा भएको के भने,

मसंग abc कम्पनीको ६०० कित्ता थियो,

६०० कित्ता १२४ मा सेलको लागि राखे,

open देखाएको थियो, त्यसलाई cancel गरे,
साच्चै cancel गर्ने भनेर msg आयो, मैले OK गरे,
अनि फेरी १२५ मुल्य राखेर सेलमा राखे,

पछि हेर्दा, complete मा ६०० कित्ता १२४ र १२५ मा २ पटक कारोबार भएको देखियो,

जबकी cancel गर्दा server ले cancel गर्ने हो भनेर question सोधेको छ र मैले ok गरेको छु भने,

यसमा मेरो दोष के,

र किन मैले पेनाल्टी २०% तिर्नु पर्ने,

यसो गुनासो share गरेको,
साथीहरुलाई पनि यस्तो समस्या पर्याथियो कि ?
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 52
Pay the penalty @20%
You need to pay 125*100*.2=2500 nrs as penalty.

Request to the brokar he can manage it except your additional brokar commission and dp fee bla bla
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
NISSANJEE
1. Dont know about that.
2. Buy/Sell Via Telephone is far easier.

SIMRIKJEE
1. THE GBLBS further increased with huge volume.

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 237
पूजीभैरवजी,

online बाट share बेच्दा abc company को share 100 कित्ता बढी बेचियो झुक्किएर,

मानौ 100 @ 125 मा बेचीएको छ,

न त online system मा आफुसंग भए भन्दा बढी कित्ता गयो भने,
रोक्ने सिस्टम छ,

अब आफुसंग नभएको तर बढी बेचिएको qty के हुन्छ ?

के यसमा कुनै penalty हुन्छ ?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
SIMRIKJEE

1. Deprosc will witness slight rise in EPS (52 to 57) compared to first quarter (49) whereas GBLBS may witness double EPS (21-26) compared to first quarter (12). Further Bonus will not be adjusted to Deprosc.

2. Deprosc reserves might cross 1 arab. GBLBS reserve might be around 65 crore. (Deprosc bonus shares again ignored as it wont affect 2nd quarter)

3. Mero Microfinance 2nd quarter EPS is 19 and has reached 690 mark. GBLBS 2nd quarter EPS if comes around (21-26 which will be high leap from first quarter EPS of 12) than its price may also surge rapidly.

4. All accumulated lossess of GBLBS should be fully wiped out and confirmed bonus must come from this fiscal year and its 2 arab mark sud be reached by bonus.

5. After accumulated lossess are over. Mutual Funds can enter into BUY POSITIONS to buy it... Finally Mutual Funds can buy it...

....So GBLBS is still under performing..... Investors at large are looking at EPS 12 of first quarter and price reached 460.......So considering even on nominal scales its EPS must come between (21 to 26) and how much its price should be, the market shall decide, no analyst can decide.... But during such MFI bullishness, a good upward displacement can come if such EPS (between 21 to 26) emerges and hence it can spike quite high.....

...However please use your own diligence......Belief is in Buying undervalued companies with potentials and looking at future.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:44 am. »
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 108
Bhairab ji,
Tapai ko three preferred micro finance stock pau na
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 448
FuturistJee
1 . Insurance is rising because we got to sell it
2. Craze will again shift to low priced MFI

And
1. Civil Bank might go in merger very soon

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 106
I honestly do not understand why insurance sector is rising. MFI shows clear profits in multiples. However, the prices of Insurances are not justified by the dividends offered by them. Is this a selling opportunity?

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